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Kevin Goldstein's Top 101/Red Sox Top 11

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kolodzan

Kevin Goldstein's Top 101/Red Sox Top 11

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Posts: 10

02/13/12 6:06 AM

Andrew Kolodziej

Data Coordinator

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Kevin Goldstein released his Top 101 prospect list today. I believe his Red Sox list is out later today too.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020

32. Xander Bogaerts

46. Brandon Jacobs

55. Will Middlebrooks

98. Ryan Lavarnway

The obvious surprise here is not only Jacobs making the list, but making the top 50.

Other players of note:

75. Anthony Rizzo

78. Casey Kelly

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joshv02

#1

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Posts: 1007

02/13/12 8:24 AM

With the obvious caveats that this is not necessary a good use of data (e.g., a #5 player may be significantly - not just slightly -- better than a #7 player), and my xls skillz aren't that great, here are the 30 MLB teams sorted by "point" order (e.g., a #1 prospect is worth 101 points, #2 100 .... #101 is worth 1):

Rank	Team	# of Players	Points
1	Pirates	6	373
2	Padres	10	335
3	Mariners	4	293
4	Cardinals	5	289
5	Royals	5	252
6	Blue Jays	5	251
7	Rangers	5	247
8	AZ	3	237
9	Athletics	7	233
10	Rockies	5	219
11	Orioles	3	207
12	Braves	3	198
13	Nationals	3	187
14	Yankees	4	177
14	Red Sox	4	177
16	Mets	3	162
17	Reds	2	158
18	Rays	2	138
19	Astros	3	136
20	Angels	2	134
21	Cubs	3	121
22	Tigers	2	118
23	Twins	3	117
24	Marlins	2	91
25	Indians	1	85
26	Giants	1	84
27	Phillies	2	69
28	Dodgers	1	32
29	CHS	1	21
30	Brewers	1	10

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templeUsox

#2

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02/13/12 8:38 AM

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Podcast Panelist

I've never been so outraged in my life.

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jamesdunne24

#3

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02/13/12 9:02 AM

James Dunne

Staff Writer

SoxProspects.com

A non-Red Sox system comment - I don't get why Moore is being ranked higher than Trout and Harper here. Mayo did the same thing, and I really can't reason it. Trout and Harper both have elite, HOF-type upside. Harper is the most touted position prospect I can remember since A-Rod, and Trout dominated the Texas League as a 19 year old. Moore is the best pitching prospect out there right now, but a) he doesn't seem like a "historically great" type of prospect, and b) he's a pitcher, so the likelihood he busts is higher, based on that fact alone.

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templeUsox

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02/13/12 9:22 AM

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I would argue Moore has the same "historically great" upside as Strasburg or any pitcher we've seen recently. Yes, he is a pitcher, so there is bigger bust potential. But I think his pitching ceiling is as high as Trout and Harper's offensive ceilings.

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remember04

#5

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02/13/12 10:20 AM

Austin Hedges ahead of Blake Swihart seems a little odd to me. Is that based on talent or on signing bonus?

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jamesdunne24

#6

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02/13/12 10:49 AM

James Dunne

Staff Writer

SoxProspects.com

templeUsox wrote:
I would argue Moore has the same "historically great" upside as Strasburg or any pitcher we've seen recently. Yes, he is a pitcher, so there is bigger bust potential. But I think his pitching ceiling is as high as Trout and Harper's offensive ceilings.

I'm just not sure I agree with that. If we go through the top prospects in terms of rankings and hype in the last 12 years or so, they'd be Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, Mark Prior, Josh Beckett, David Price, Tim Lincecum - Moore might be in a category right with them, but that's sort of my point - he's a once every two year pitching prospect. That shouldn't be taken as a negative - he might turn into a historically great pitcher, like Felix and Lincecum arguably have. But it's hard to see him being rated as a better prospect than either of those two were.

Compare that to Harper. What 19 year-old, since Rodriguez, would you say is anywhere close to Harper in terms of hype, performance, and tools? Justin Upton wasn't nearly as complete a package, and he was a #1 overall pick who has become a perennial All-Star and borderline MVP candidate at 23. Obviously I don't want to rank players based on hype, and it's possible that Harper's dickishness actually starts causing tangible negatives. But if you had to choose one player, between Harper and Moore, who you thought was likely to make it to the Hall of Fame, you'd pick Harper, right? Or, say, if you were picking one player to be worth 50 WAR in the 10 year stretch from 2014-2023, again, the smart money would probably be on Harper.

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jmei

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02/13/12 10:55 AM

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I wonder who Goldstein's source is who is so high on Jacobs. He certainly has tons of offensive upside, but as far as I've read noone has him playing anywhere but LF (and most have him projecting as below-average there) and he's still fairly raw offensively (although the plate discipline has noticeably improved since he's entered the system).

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WillWoodward

#8

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02/13/12 10:59 AM

Will Woodward

Staff Writer

SoxProspects.com

remember04 wrote:
Austin Hedges ahead of Blake Swihart seems a little odd to me. Is that based on talent or on signing bonus?

Just to touch on this one quickly, without knowing Goldstein's exact thinking. Many people think Hedges is one of the best defensive catching prospects they have seen in the last ~10 years. Most believed that prior to the draft and that was the main reason he went where he did with the bonus he did. What has surprised people is how good and advanced (relative to expectation) his hit tool was. He originally was seen a a great D catcher who might not hurt you with the bat, and now as seen as someone who can impact both sides of the ball.

Swihart, which possessing a similar upside is far more raw on D, because as I mentioned in the Law thread, he has played far less catcher. His high school team had him playing several places around the diamond. The fact that Hedges seemingly will be dominant on one side of the ball gives him the higher ranking....for now (Think Iglesias if his hit tool showed more promise - both plus at premium positions).

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WillWoodward

#9

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02/13/12 11:02 AM

Will Woodward

Staff Writer

SoxProspects.com

jamesdunne24 wrote:
templeUsox wrote:
I would argue Moore has the same "historically great" upside as Strasburg or any pitcher we've seen recently. Yes, he is a pitcher, so there is bigger bust potential. But I think his pitching ceiling is as high as Trout and Harper's offensive ceilings.

I'm just not sure I agree with that. If we go through the top prospects in terms of rankings and hype in the last 12 years or so, they'd be Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, Mark Prior, Josh Beckett, David Price, Tim Lincecum - Moore might be in a category right with them, but that's sort of my point - he's a once every two year pitching prospect. That shouldn't be taken as a negative - he might turn into a historically great pitcher, like Felix and Lincecum arguably have. But it's hard to see him being rated as a better prospect than either of those two were.

Compare that to Harper. What 19 year-old, since Rodriguez, would you say is anywhere close to Harper in terms of hype, performance, and tools? Justin Upton wasn't nearly as complete a package, and he was a #1 overall pick who has become a perennial All-Star and borderline MVP candidate at 23. Obviously I don't want to rank players based on hype, and it's possible that Harper's dickishness actually starts causing tangible negatives. But if you had to choose one player, between Harper and Moore, who you thought was likely to make it to the Hall of Fame, you'd pick Harper, right? Or, say, if you were picking one player to be worth 50 WAR in the 10 year stretch from 2014-2023, again, the smart money would probably be on Harper.

I agree with AB that both have elite ceilings, my view is that the risk with Moore is injury while the risk with Harper is development - especially with off-speed recognition/adjustments. Goldstein downplays the injury risk why Law takes it into account. With 2-3 players all possess elite ceilings you rank the guy who has the lower floor higher and it seems that Goldstein's view is that this is Moore.

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FenwayTheHardWay

#10

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02/13/12 11:30 AM

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remember04 wrote:
Austin Hedges ahead of Blake Swihart seems a little odd to me. Is that based on talent or on signing bonus?

KG's usual line is that he does these as if they were pref lists for a team. IE, value.

"thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman

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jamesdunne24

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02/13/12 11:54 AM

James Dunne

Staff Writer

SoxProspects.com

WillWoodward wrote:
I agree with AB that both have elite ceilings, my view is that the risk with Moore is injury while the risk with Harper is development - especially with off-speed recognition/adjustments. Goldstein downplays the injury risk why Law takes it into account. With 2-3 players all possess elite ceilings you rank the guy who has the lower floor higher and it seems that Goldstein's view is that this is Moore.

I guess I just think Harper's downside has been overplayed. He swings and misses some, yes. However, he's not off-balance and aimlessly flailing at those low and away curveballs like Delmon Young does. When I watch Harper, I really think A-Rod is an accurate comparison at the plate. A-Rod at his peak was a 100 strikeout guy, but nobody cared about the K's because he did everything else so well. And Harper's walk rate (13% across the two levels) seems to reinforce what I was seeing - that his pitch identification is good enough for him to generally wait off of those curveballs until he gets a fastball to drive. I see Harper, at the absolutely worst, turning into something like Dave Kingman with better defense, which sounds a lot more appealing that Moore's downside.

Also, Harper was supposed to be a Senior in high school last year. We need to keep that in mind. Most of the next best players in his age group will be starting out in the New York-Penn League this year.

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WillWoodward

#12

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02/13/12 12:55 PM

Will Woodward

Staff Writer

SoxProspects.com

Any order for the top 3 is fine by me. They are 3 very different types of players: best pitching prospect who also happens to be left handed, power bat with power arm, and burner with plus speed and defense. I prefer Trout because I see the least risk in his tools. Speed and defense are things that are least affected by competition level. Meaning I think the tools carryover easier and require fewer adjustments. I think all 3 players will be very good, potentially as soon as this year.

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brent l

#13

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Posts: 62

02/13/12 5:32 PM

I like Goldstein but I aint crazy about his work. He does some writing/ranking an its great others an its bad. I would put his top 100 in closer to bad then good. He has over ranked so many guys there an under ranked way to many IMO.

Moore being ranked ahead of Trout doesnt bother me I could flip flop them an it would be right if you ask me. Moore is a SP so he holds more value an yes you could also argue he is more likely to be a bust because he is a SP. You could argue, espcially if you believe his upside as a SP is just as big as Trouts as a positional player that he holds more value. I love Trout but think Harper has bigger upside an for me its not a debate. I have it like this Harper, Moore, Trout, Shelby Miller, Machado. Thats my top 5.

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brent l

#14

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Posts: 63

02/13/12 5:37 PM

WillWoodward wrote:
remember04 wrote:
Austin Hedges ahead of Blake Swihart seems a little odd to me. Is that based on talent or on signing bonus?

Just to touch on this one quickly, without knowing Goldstein's exact thinking. Many people think Hedges is one of the best defensive catching prospects they have seen in the last ~10 years. Most believed that prior to the draft and that was the main reason he went where he did with the bonus he did. What has surprised people is how good and advanced (relative to expectation) his hit tool was. He originally was seen a a great D catcher who might not hurt you with the bat, and now as seen as someone who can impact both sides of the ball.

Swihart, which possessing a similar upside is far more raw on D, because as I mentioned in the Law thread, he has played far less catcher. His high school team had him playing several places around the diamond. The fact that Hedges seemingly will be dominant on one side of the ball gives him the higher ranking....for now (Think Iglesias if his hit tool showed more promise - both plus at premium positions).

My thoughts exactly when I saw the post. Hedges is a more advanced Defensive C an as we no that postion is a premium an guys who are great on D there an atleast avg-good on O hold huge value. Swihart offers more offensivly then Hedges does an ever will imo. Swihart has a very special offensive game. His defensive postion is up in the air long term but he will start off at C an hopefully become very good there.

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TEXS31

#15

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02/13/12 6:07 PM

FWIW - 3 of the 4 Baseball America guys had Moore over Trout in their Top 50 (one can assume, then, that it will be the same in the overall Top 100).

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Arquimedez Bozo

#16

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Posts: 12773

02/13/12 7:12 PM

Chris Hatfield
Executive Editor
SoxProspects.com

WillWoodward wrote:
I agree with AB

I've been confused with Ian Theodoridis. I can't tell if this is either the worst or best day of my life, but it's one of the two, that much is certain.

"I think the baby is sleeping right now." - Jonathan Singer

Twitter: @ChrisHatfield/@SoxProspects / SoxProspects on Facebook

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FenwayTheHardWay

#17

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02/13/12 7:12 PM

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WillWoodward wrote:
I agree with AB that both have elite ceilings, my view is that the risk with Moore is injury while the risk with Harper is development - especially with off-speed recognition/adjustments. Goldstein downplays the injury risk why Law takes it into account. With 2-3 players all possess elite ceilings you rank the guy who has the lower floor higher and it seems that Goldstein's view is that this is Moore.

Or,

russell (Texas): Can you discuss the Moore/Harper/Trout rankings at the top? What led you to pick Moore over the other two (and was it close)?

Kevin Goldstein: It was crazy close. As far as I'm concerned, you could put those three players in any order and I would not have a problem with it.

So essentially he got down to three and choose the one with the best controversy tool.

"thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman

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buffs44444

#18

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Posts: 2004

02/13/12 8:46 PM

Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein

We didn't want to bury it today with the Top 101, so Red Sox Top 11 is up tomorrow.

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

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FenwayTheHardWay

#19

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02/13/12 10:18 PM

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Might as well post the of the Red Sox stuff from the chat as well:

Xander Cage (Ask Vin Diesel): You think Xander Bogaerts could be top 10 by seasons end?

Kevin Goldstein: He COULD be. That does not mean I'm saying he will be.

Nater1177 (levittown pa): Brandon Jacobs as a top 50 guy is higher than I would have expected. What have you heard/seen that has him so highly regarded?

Kevin Goldstein: Fantastic combination of performance and tools.

LaserShow (SoCal): Percent chance Bogaerts sticks at SS?

Kevin Goldstein: Very, very low. Single digit percentage.

BabyJaypers (Queens): Does Middlebrooks have the chance to hit 3-4-5 in a first division lineup?

Kevin Goldstein: A chance, but more likely No. 6.

Brian (Chicago): Are there guys that missed the list with 80 tools?

Kevin Goldstein: Plenty of 80 runners. Some put an 80 of Jose Iglesias' glove.

Nater1177 (Levittown Pa): Speaking of Iglesias..did he garner any consideration near the bottom of list based on the stellar glove and 'youngest in AAA' standing?

Kevin Goldstein: He did not.

Bill Simmons (Grantland Office): I haven't seen the Red Sox farm system this bad in a long time. Tell me something good to cheer me up!

Kevin Goldstein: I think their system is quite good actually, especially in terms of depth.