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ESPN/Keith Law Top 100 & Red Sox Top 10

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WillWoodward	ESPN/Keith Law Top 100 & Red Sox Top 10		Lead	[-]
Posts: 63 02/09/12 12:06 PM Will Woodward Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	Tags : None Law has his top 100 rankings up today: http://insider.espn.go.co...2-nos-1-25?eleven=twelve(Bogaerts & Swihart only Red Sox). List of 10 "just missed guys: http://insider.espn.go.co...-just-missed-top-100-mlb (Middlebrooks and Lavarnway listed) Top 10 by team: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7551540/top-10-players-organization-mlb (Drake Britton 10th is the most interesting ranking to me). I am very surprised to see Middlebrooks ranked below Swihart before Swihart has played any pro ball. Keith Law traditionally weights upside very heavily so that explains Middlebrooks and Lavarnway just missing and the (relatively) high rankings of Bogaerts and Swihart. Last Edited By: WillWoodward 02/09/12 12:16 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Bury the Hammer		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1637 02/09/12 1:48 PM Veteran Member	Law mentioned Brandon Jacobs on the Baseball Today podcast as his Red Sox sleeper, saying he could jump into the top 100 next year. edit: Wow, that Britton ranking is certainly going out on a limb.
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raftsox		#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1718 02/09/12 1:49 PM	I don't have ESPN Insider, so take this rant for what it's worth. It bugs the hell out if me when a non-elite draftee* who has never played a second of pro-ball is ranked higher than someone who has an industry consensus of being an above average regular at the majors, and is almost there. Upside is nice, but it needs to be balanced against proximity and likelihood of reaching that projection. * guys like Harper, Cole, Strasburg are elite, Blake Swihart is not.
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Bury the Hammer		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1638 02/09/12 1:52 PM Veteran Member	It's not like he ranked him in the top 20. If "elite" guys, as you label them, are top 10-15 caliber, I don't see a lower first round pick with high upside as a ridiculous choice for #100. Also, I think there are more questions about Middlebrooks and Lavarnway than you're giving credit for.
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Lightning Show		#4	[url]	[-]
Posts: 237 02/09/12 2:22 PM JP Social Media Specialist	I don't have a problem with his rankings, especially with the understanding that he values ceiling so highly. When you are ranking the Top 100 in all of baseball I think that makes more sense anyway. Fans reading a Top 100 are usually wondering who is most likely to be the next star on their team, rather then who could be a 4th OF or middle RP. SoxProspects.com Social Media: Facebook - Twitter
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jamesdunne24		#5	[url]	[-]
Posts: 36 02/09/12 2:41 PM James Dunne Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	raftsox wrote: . Upside is nice, but it needs to be balanced against proximity and likelihood of reaching that projection. I'm sure Law would agree with you, which is why he has Trout ahead of Harper. Law does get a little bit upside-happy at times, but lets not forget that Middlebrooks had a K/BB ratio of 4.5 (6.0 in his time with the PawSox) and that Law doesn't like Lavarnway's defense at catcher at all. Neither of them are sure-thing major league regulars.
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Arquimedez Bozo		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 12754 02/09/12 3:03 PM Chris Hatfield Executive Editor SoxProspects.com	RE: the Britton ranking, keep in mind the bias inherent in lists of pre-set length - those last spots on these lists tend to go to guys that could significantly move up in the rankings. I bet you if Law did a top 20 instead, Britton would be ranked lower. For reference, he had Xander 10th last year, higher than anyone else did. "I think the baby is sleeping right now." - Jonathan Singer Twitter: @ChrisHatfield/@SoxProspects / SoxProspects on Facebook
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DCB26		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 85 02/09/12 3:09 PM	To the Middlebrooks/Swihart rankings: Not trying to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think Raftsox's (I never knew it was correct to put an "s" after the apostrophe with a sibilant "x" or "xe" in a possessive...anyway...) point was along the lines of "how the hell is Swihart higher ranked than Middlebrooks" not "Swihart shouldn't be on the list" or "Middlebrooks should be on the list." I personally couldn't care less where some guy who has never seen most of these prospects ranks them, but I completely agree that it's crazy to rank Swihart ahead of Middlebrooks right now, when Swihart has, what, a 5% chance of being a better major league player than what Middlebrooks is projected to be?
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WillWoodward		#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 65 02/09/12 3:36 PM Will Woodward Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	DCB26 wrote: I personally couldn't care less where some guy who has never seen most of these prospects ranks them This is not correct. Keith's job is to see these guys and has seen very close to everyone on here either as prospects or before the draft if they were first round talents. That along with his scouting connections though his time with the Blue Jays (& job offer with the Astros) and ESPN give him a greater depth of knowledge then you are giving him credit for. Raftsox, I believe Swihart was one of the elite talents in the draft, both at a premium position and with one of the best high school bats in the draft last year (second only to Josh Bell, who many thought would not sign). The reason he was able to fall to the Red Sox was a very strong college commitment to Texas and huge bonus demands. I agree with those who point out Middlebrooks is not without questions. His strikeout rate raises questions about him being able to hit for enough average at the MLB level. His power really only started to show over the last 18 months or so it is not a sure thing. Lavarnway's stock would be far lower if he is a bat only guy (or even first base only). Most in the industry think he cannot catch. Many with the Red Sox think he at least has a shot to. That is likely the disparity there.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3410 02/09/12 3:37 PM Veteran Member	raftsox wrote: I don't have ESPN Insider, so take this rant for what it's worth. It bugs the hell out if me when a non-elite draftee* who has never played a second of pro-ball is ranked higher than someone who has an industry consensus of being an above average regular at the majors, and is almost there. Upside is nice, but it needs to be balanced against proximity and likelihood of reaching that projection. * guys like Harper, Cole, Strasburg are elite, Blake Swihart is not. If we're just going by the "industry consensus", what's the point of even doing these lists? So Law's going out on a limb with these two players. Ok, great. Interesting choice. Why is anyone bothered by this? "thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman
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charliezink16		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1037 02/09/12 3:46 PM	One ranking that really shocked me was the Mason Williams ranking at #34. I also can't wait till Lavarnway proves to be a stud and people wonder where the hell he came from. I understand that he doesn't have a definite position, but I feel that people who make these lists over emphasize that. Ryan has the potential to be a 30+ HR guy, who has a chance (small) to catch, and can probably pick up 1st base if taught. With his bat and work ethic it kind of bothers me that he continues to be left off these lists. PS: Someone tell Keith that Britton is a lefty EDIT: Another thing that bothered me was Middlebrooks not being ranked. Law stated that "his approach at the plate is a real weakness that pitchers started to exploit when he was called up to Triple A", but does 56 AB's at AAA really warrant a drop of 60+ spots from his mid-season rank of 42? Twitter (Tweet about Sox alot) YouTube Account Last Edited By: charliezink16 02/09/12 3:54 PM. Edited 1 time.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3411 02/09/12 3:52 PM Veteran Member	DCB26 wrote: To the Middlebrooks/Swihart rankings: Not trying to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think Raftsox's (I never knew it was correct to put an "s" after the apostrophe with a sibilant "x" or "xe" in a possessive...anyway...) point was along the lines of "how the hell is Swihart higher ranked than Middlebrooks" not "Swihart shouldn't be on the list" or "Middlebrooks should be on the list." I personally couldn't care less where some guy who has never seen most of these prospects ranks them, but I completely agree that it's crazy to rank Swihart ahead of Middlebrooks right now, when Swihart has, what, a 5% chance of being a better major league player than what Middlebrooks is projected to be? I think you're way overestimating Middlebrook's chances of being an impact player at the major league level. Meanwhile Swihart has a real (if small) chance to become a major league catcher who's above average on both sides of the ball. At no point in his career has Middlebrooks had that kind of upside, and he certainly doesn't have it now. "thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman
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soxprospects		#12	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10444 02/09/12 4:24 PM Mike Andrews Editor-in-Chief SoxProspects.com	Maybe I'm reading your post wrong, but Middelbrooks absolutely has the upside to be an above-average player on both sides of the ball. I agree that there are questions marks and I wouldn't say that's his projection, but it's within his ceiling.
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WillWoodward		#13	[url]	[-]
Posts: 69 02/09/12 4:54 PM Will Woodward Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	As charliezink16 notes, way to drop the ball on the Britton most basic info, Klaw... I agree with Mike. Middlebrooks defense at third without a doubt projects to be above average, and is probably the most developed part of his game. The offense also definitely has a chance to be above average. The standard in MLB for a third basemen right now is low, and if he can develop his approach he can definitely be above average for the position.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3412 02/09/12 5:01 PM Veteran Member	Right, but he doesn't have the potential to do those things as a catcher. "thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman
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raftsox		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1719 02/09/12 5:16 PM	DCB26 wrote: To the Middlebrooks/Swihart rankings: Not trying to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think Raftsox's (I never knew it was correct to put an "s" after the apostrophe with a sibilant "x" or "xe" in a possessive...anyway...) point was along the lines of "how the hell is Swihart higher ranked than Middlebrooks" not "Swihart shouldn't be on the list" or "Middlebrooks should be on the list." I personally couldn't care less where some guy who has never seen most of these prospects ranks them, but I completely agree that it's crazy to rank Swihart ahead of Middlebrooks right now, when Swihart has, what, a 5% chance of being a better major league player than what Middlebrooks is projected to be? This was my point, thanks.
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BorisMan		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 914 02/09/12 5:20 PM Veteran Member	I think we have a Buster Posey/Brett Lawrie type talent in Swihart. Don't forget how deep this draft was, especially at the top. We have no choice but to wait until we see what he can do in the pros. But the talent level is there, I think, for him to boom more likely than bust. I'll go out on a limb and say he'll be our top 2 prospect by the end of 2013. Unless injuries derail him, book it. Someone can put that as their signature and rub it in all they want if I'm wrong.
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raftsox		#17	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1720 02/09/12 5:24 PM	FenwayTheHardWay wrote: raftsox wrote: I don't have ESPN Insider, so take this rant for what it's worth. It bugs the hell out if me when a non-elite draftee* who has never played a second of pro-ball is ranked higher than someone who has an industry consensus of being an above average regular at the majors, and is almost there. Upside is nice, but it needs to be balanced against proximity and likelihood of reaching that projection. * guys like Harper, Cole, Strasburg are elite, Blake Swihart is not. If we're just going by the "industry consensus", what's the point of even doing these lists? So Law's going out on a limb with these two players. Ok, great. Interesting choice. Why is anyone bothered by this? Ok, great. Interesting analysis. This is akin to reading an article title in the newspaper that says "eggs will kill you" without bothering to read the research paper that spawned the article title. Ie, you selectively extracted a minor portion of a statement and proceeded to intentionally misinterpret it. You're smart enough to understand what I was saying.
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Guidas		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2543 02/09/12 5:32 PM	Excerpt from Law's evaluation of Middlebrooks (and Law's subsequent defense of why he is not a top 100 talent): his approach at the plate is a real weakness that pitchers started to exploit when he was called up to Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League -- especially with better off-speed stuff. He's an above-average defender at third with good reads and a plus arm; he could get to the big leagues on his defense alone. The issue for Middlebrooks will be whether he can hit enough to be able to hit for power, and he's not going to hit unless he can recognize off-speed stuff better and at least threaten to take the occasional walk, getting into more fastball counts to get pitches he can drive. Sounds like the front office has to make a judgement soon as to whether this guy is the real deal or the next incarnation of Brandon Wood and proceed quickly if a trade is in order while his value is at its peak, and before he is exposed (<cough>Lars Anderson-style<cough>).
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johnsilver62		#19	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 353 02/09/12 6:11 PM	I also can't wait till Lavarnway proves to be a stud and people wonder where the hell he came from. The same thing could be said of Lavarnway getting truly recognized here. His ranking as a prospect seems to have been linked too much because of his questionable glove, rather than his outstanding bat which has produced ever since he was drafted.
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norbit14		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4108 02/09/12 7:22 PM Veteran Member	Swihart was considered the best pure hitter in the HS ranks to go along with above-avg-to-avg power with decent chance of staying behind the plate, the main question mark is if his bat is so good maybe he'll be moved off the position to maximize it. His draft class was deep, as deep as it gets and his price tag was high so he dropped to 26th overall, none the less The Red Sox paid him as their top pick and in the range of a top 10 pick. Keith Law likes upside but he also is saber-metrically oriented especially for prospects that are in the high minors and the fact is that Middlebrooks has a scary K-rate and BB-rate and there are not a lot of above avg big leaguers with his kind of split so its not far-fetch to see why he would keep him out of the top 100. He ranked Swihart as his 100 and Middlebrooks in the "just missed" group so its not like there is is a country mile between them. I would rank Middlebrooks higher than Swihart but thats just because I'm not saber-metrically oriented when it comes to prospects and other sources see things that makes them believe Middlebrooks has a high enough chance of reaching his celing. Am Dominican and you??
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