2012 Pitching Rotation in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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2012 Pitching Rotation

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NotFromTheBandwagon	2012 Pitching Rotation		Lead	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 106 01/19/12 4:02 PM	Tags : None I heard there was a decent writer at WEEI. There is an article by some guy named Speier talking about the Red Sox pitching rotation for 2012. He talks about the recent history of World Series teams only needing a couple of dominant starters and then a rotation of slightly better than average guys at the back of the rotation. He also talks about the benefits of a mid-season acquisition to bolter the rotation for World Series teams. There has been a lot of talk on the board about getting Oswalt or some other starter. I think the premise of the article indicates the Red Sox could do OK without another starter. The big "if" is that the top three guys would need to be very healthy. The paragraph below is the nuts and bolts, but the whole article is a great read. I considered putting this in the Off Season Rumor thread, but it is 50 freakin pages already and I thought we could limit this discussion simply to the community's thoughts on what Speier brings up. Before reading this, I was firmly in the position of acquiring Oswalt. I am not as sure now. I wish I had more confidence that Lester, Beckett, and Buch were going to be healthy this season. I am interested to hear what you guys think about whether or not an Oswalt kind of signing should occur, or if we should rely on the big three and the speghetti gang until sometime just before the trade deadline. http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/01/19/blueprint-how-teams-have-built-championship-ro First, if the Sox can have a healthy and productive Lester, Beckett and Buchholz joined by one league-average starter from their wide-ranging mix of candidates for the last two spots in the rotation, then they will feature a rotation that aligns with the type of starting groups that has proven capable of winning championships. In all likelihood, the team doesn’t need an ace, but rather just a solid, reliable contributor who can keep the team in the game on a predictable basis.
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raftsox		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1713 01/19/12 5:28 PM	Something else to consider in relation to making the playoffs: Year. Team. Top 4pitchers innings 2011. Cardinals. 802 2010. Giants. 826 2009. Yankees 787 2008 Phillies 762 2007 Red sox 744 2006 Cardinals. 698 I remember hearing at some point years ago that in order to make the playoffs a team needed the top 4 positions in their starting rotation to pitch the majority of the teams innings. The one outlier is the 2006 cards who fit the aforementioned "add a starter midseason" model. Now, this is only in regards to making the playoffs and may not have any true merit, but to me it says that you need to have 4 talented and durable starters at the beginning of the season to have a legitimate chance.
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DCB26		#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 65 01/19/12 6:03 PM	I would like to see the Sox add one more pitcher, one who is at least nominally better than a "# 4" starter. I definitely think Oswalt is still capable of being better than your average 4 (if healthy,) granted he wasn't great last year but he was injured, and you could make a strong case that 2010 was the best year of his career. He's almost certainly past his prime, but barring serious injuries it's doubtful he's declined tremendously in 2 years. That said, his fastball has declined in velocity each of the last 3 years, and he's transitioning from the NL to the AL east, which always causes some concern. That said, Philly isn't exactly pitcher's paradise even if it is in the NL, and part of the decline in Oswalt's fastball velocity is probably due to the increased number of sinkers he's thrown (I'm using fangraphs, and I know they differentiate between the two pitches, but there is usually some confusion/crossover.) As far as his health goes, before 2011 the last time he didn't make 30 starts was 2003, so there's that. Looking at Oswalt's pitch types the last few years is interesting actually, he's the definition of an aging pitcher transitioning away from power stuff to command/movement/deception. Oswalt is known as a fastball/curve/slider guy, but over the last couple of years he has added a sinker and relied on it significantly, as well as phasing out his curve somewhat and relying more heavily on his change. He's still got his control it appears, so whether that paints a picture of an experienced pitcher with a solid 4-pitch arsenal (all of the pitches show at least the possibility of being effective) or a power guy who's lost some of his power and is transitioning to the much-maligned "soft-tossing-righty" is the question. One possible explanation for the last couple of years is that Oswalt went against the established scouting report on him in 2010, and the league caught up in 2011. In a semi-related note, I have improbably and unreasonably high hopes for Doubront this year, not sure why exactly. Much more likely he is cut at the end of the spring than he locks up the #4 spot for the year, but he does have some potential.
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pedroiayouk1520		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 211 01/22/12 12:53 PM	DCB26 wrote: I would like to see the Sox add one more pitcher, one who is at least nominally better than a "# 4" starter. I definitely think Oswalt is still capable of being better than your average 4 (if healthy,) granted he wasn't great last year but he was injured, and you could make a strong case that 2010 was the best year of his career. He's almost certainly past his prime, but barring serious injuries it's doubtful he's declined tremendously in 2 years. That said, his fastball has declined in velocity each of the last 3 years, and he's transitioning from the NL to the AL east, which always causes some concern. That said, Philly isn't exactly pitcher's paradise even if it is in the NL, and part of the decline in Oswalt's fastball velocity is probably due to the increased number of sinkers he's thrown (I'm using fangraphs, and I know they differentiate between the two pitches, but there is usually some confusion/crossover.) As far as his health goes, before 2011 the last time he didn't make 30 starts was 2003, so there's that. Looking at Oswalt's pitch types the last few years is interesting actually, he's the definition of an aging pitcher transitioning away from power stuff to command/movement/deception. Oswalt is known as a fastball/curve/slider guy, but over the last couple of years he has added a sinker and relied on it significantly, as well as phasing out his curve somewhat and relying more heavily on his change. He's still got his control it appears, so whether that paints a picture of an experienced pitcher with a solid 4-pitch arsenal (all of the pitches show at least the possibility of being effective) or a power guy who's lost some of his power and is transitioning to the much-maligned "soft-tossing-righty" is the question. One possible explanation for the last couple of years is that Oswalt went against the established scouting report on him in 2010, and the league caught up in 2011. In a semi-related note, I have improbably and unreasonably high hopes for Doubront this year, not sure why exactly. Much more likely he is cut at the end of the spring than he locks up the #4 spot for the year, but he does have some potential. I think Doubront will definitely be a part of the bullpen. Him and Morales would probably be the two lefties for the middle-innings. I'm expecting the opening day pen to be: Bailey Melancon Bard (or) Aceves Morales Doubront Albers Bowden That would mean Atchison and Miller are cut and maybe re-signed to minor league deals. Jenks will likely start the year on the DL. I think that's a solid bullpen overall. The 7-8-9 should be pretty clear. Then for the middle-innings, I'd think that Morales/Albers would get the first shot as the L/R combo. Doubront/Bowden will probably start off in a mop-up role and could eventually replace Morales/Albers if they are inneffective. Also, Doubront/Bowden is very cost efficient.
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High Heat		#4	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 49 01/22/12 1:02 PM	Is Doubront destine to be a reliever now? Doesn't he still has some upside than all the reclamation projects as the 5th starter?
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DCB26		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 72 01/22/12 1:38 PM	The bullpen pedroiayouk describes is probably the most likely, although I wouldn't be real surprised to see Bowden and/or Doubront traded or even released depending on how they look in the spring. I agree that it should be a solid 'pen with Bowden and Dounront as cheap guys with some upside. Also, given the Sox recent history with LHRP with questionable control, I wouldn't get too attached to Morales just yet. Like High Heat points out though, Doubront definitely has the "stuff" to be at least a back of the rotation starter, personally I think he could be better than that but I'm really only basing that on the very limited bit I've seen of his fastball the last 2 years, and assuming his secondary stuff hasn't gotten any worse. Thing is, Doubront has had his share of chances though and his situation is getting close to Bowden's, where he has to prove something, and fast, or the Sox are going to have to move on. I still think Doubront's upside is a solid LHSP with multiple above-average/plus pitches and swing-and-miss stuff. As a reference, the Sox Prospects comparison for him is Ted Lilly, and Doubront has a much better fastball (velocity-wise at least) than Lilly ever did. I'm also afraid Aceves' arm will literally fall off by May unless Valentine is a lot more conservative with him than Francona was.
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jmei		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1478 01/22/12 1:47 PM Forum Moderator	Doubront has more velocity on his FB but worse command and movement than Lilly. Don't put too much stock in the SP comparison-- it's more a rough guide on the type of player than a projected career path. Doubront does have some upside, is left-handed, and has a solid, varied repertoire (including a good changeup to get righties out with), but he projects to be a back-end starter or a decent reliever. He might be a solid candidate for the swing-starter role that Aceves had last year, if Aceves starts in the rotation full-time.
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DCB26		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 75 01/22/12 2:10 PM	True, comparing Lilly to Doubront is the same as my "I have improbably high hopes for Doubront" statement. I think the stuff is there for him to be that type of guy, but it's very unlikely. Thing with Doubront is, it seems like his command and maybe his work ethic are the two biggest things holding him back, and I think that those would hamper him just as much as a reliever as a starter. If he doesn't make it as a starter, I'm guessing he doesn't make it as a reliever either...of course this year there simply may not be room for him in the rotation regardless. Edit: Ok on actually checking Lilly's (AL)numbers he was nowhere near as good as I thought. I always forget that he really just killed the Sox. I think Doubront could definitely be a 2+ WAR 4.5+ xFIP guy. Last Edited By: DCB26 01/22/12 2:18 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Arquimedez Bozo		#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 12700 01/23/12 12:07 AM Chris Hatfield Executive Editor SoxProspects.com	Doubront's problem is that he's out of options. If he could be sent to Triple-A again, then he'd be starting. While the club could give him a look as a starter in ST, he'd have to look damn good to get a shot at the rotation. It's far, far more likely that he makes the team as a reliever. Maybe he'll earn their trust and get a shot to start next year, or perhaps even in a spot starter role later in the year. "I think the baby is sleeping right now." - Jonathan Singer Twitter: @ChrisHatfield/@SoxProspects / SoxProspects on Facebook
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Steve of Charlotte		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 584 01/23/12 9:50 AM	If there is one guy coming into camp that I have high hopes for it is Doubront. Have followed him since watching him pitch multiple times at Greenville and have always felt he had the ability to be a solid starter (for us). I was VERY disappointed with his physical condition last year, and the reports seem to give us hope this off season....that he gets it and has started to work hard. I hope we sign Oswalt, but if we don't, I hope this guy has a HUGE spring.
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DCB26		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 76 01/23/12 11:33 AM	Arquimedez Bozo wrote: Doubront's problem is that he's out of options. If he could be sent to Triple-A again, then he'd be starting. While the club could give him a look as a starter in ST, he'd have to look damn good to get a shot at the rotation. It's far, far more likely that he makes the team as a reliever. Maybe he'll earn their trust and get a shot to start next year, or perhaps even in a spot starter role later in the year. Yeah, that's why I think there's some chance that he's not with the organization at the end of the spring, if they feel he won't work as a reliever and isn't the best option for the 5th spot in the rotation. I would be very surprised if he isn't starting in the spring though. Given the uncertainty in the rotation I expect everyone with any kind of starter potential (Bard, Aceves, Doubront, Silva, Cook, Tazawa, maybe even Wilson) to get a look.
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2012 Pitching Rotation

2012 Pitching Rotation