I know the DiceK experiment has left a bad taste in the mouth of many here, but I for one am sold on Darvish (and for those who say, "Japanese pitchers just don't make it in MLB" imagine if that same argument had been employed in late 50s and 60s when other pitchers of color were not exactly putting up stellar numbers in the majors).
Besides, this guy is decidedly not DiceK. He's 6' 5", throws consistently mid-90s, is long in the legs and lean in the trunk, and works more like a traditional power pitcher. Also consider his lifetime ERA 1.99 in Japanese ball vs. DiceK's 2.95. Also consider he's 25 and, according to NPB threw 232 innings last year with 276Ks, 36BBs (very un-DiceK there) with an ERA of 1.44. I am not fool enough to think this translates to a 1.44 ERA, but doing some quick math with DiceK's MLB ERA up until his injury, I get about a 3.45 (again, imperfect, but other people have created equivalency formula's - among them Hardball Times, which comes within a few tenths of this as well).
I've not been to Japan to see him live, but on video his FB has a lot of movement down in the zone, the slider looks plus, and he has a change-up and curve that look more ave but work well in tandem with he others. Here's a clip with him vs. Matt Murton this year. Another of his motion.
They get him and sign him, the Sox would have 6 years of control. He costs no draft picks or prospects, the posting fee does not count against the LuxTax, and as well all know, Fenway Sports is a cash machine. My only caveat for the guy would be a contractual clause banning him from pitching in the World Baseball Sham Classic while an employee of the Red Sox.
Anyone else besides me think this guy could be a top 20 AL pitcher and the Sox should aggressively pursue?
Besides, this guy is decidedly not DiceK. He's 6' 5", throws consistently mid-90s, is long in the legs and lean in the trunk, and works more like a traditional power pitcher. Also consider his lifetime ERA 1.99 in Japanese ball vs. DiceK's 2.95. Also consider he's 25 and, according to NPB threw 232 innings last year with 276Ks, 36BBs (very un-DiceK there) with an ERA of 1.44. I am not fool enough to think this translates to a 1.44 ERA, but doing some quick math with DiceK's MLB ERA up until his injury, I get about a 3.45 (again, imperfect, but other people have created equivalency formula's - among them Hardball Times, which comes within a few tenths of this as well).
I've not been to Japan to see him live, but on video his FB has a lot of movement down in the zone, the slider looks plus, and he has a change-up and curve that look more ave but work well in tandem with he others. Here's a clip with him vs. Matt Murton this year. Another of his motion.
They get him and sign him, the Sox would have 6 years of control. He costs no draft picks or prospects, the posting fee does not count against the LuxTax, and as well all know, Fenway Sports is a cash machine. My only caveat for the guy would be a contractual clause banning him from pitching in the World Baseball Sham Classic while an employee of the Red Sox.
Anyone else besides me think this guy could be a top 20 AL pitcher and the Sox should aggressively pursue?
