An early look at 2012 - Boston, Pawtucket and Portland in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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An early look at 2012 - Boston, Pawtucket and Portland

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amfox1	An early look at 2012 - Boston, Pawtucket and Portland		Lead	[-]
Posts: 8308 06/30/11 10:45 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Tags : None Note that these are my projections and not the official projections of SP.com. 2012 thoughts (age as of 3/31/12): Assumes: (1) Bowden, Okajima, Nava and Fife are traded out of the organization (2) McDonald and Matsuzaka are released (3) Wheeler's and Scutaro's options are not exercised (4) Varitek is replaced with Lavarnway (5) Ortiz is re-signed (6) Cameron, Drew and Wakefield retire (7) Scutaro and Papelbon sign elsewhere (8) Reddick beats out Kalish for the starting RF job (9) Linares, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Federowicz, Weiland, Britton, Rice and Lin are added to the 40-man roster Boston Pitchers: (SP) Beckett (31), Lester (28), Buchholz (26), Lackey (33), Miller (26) (RP) Bard (26), Jenks (31), Albers (29), Atchison (36), Aceves (29), Morales (26), [FA] (40 man roster pitchers and 2012 initial placements - Weiland (25) (AAA), Tazawa (25) (AAA), Doubront (24) (AAA), Pimentel (22) (AA), Britton (22) (A+), Hottovy (30) (AAA), Rice (25) (AAA)) Position players: (OF) Crawford (29), Ellsbury (28), Reddick (25), Linares (27) (IF) A.Gonzalez (29), Pedroia (28), Lowrie (27), Youkilis (33), Ortiz (36) [DH], Sutton (28), Navarro (24) (C) Saltalamacchia (26), Lavarnway (24) (40 man roster pitchers and 2012 initial placements - Anderson (24) (AAA), Kalish (24) (AAA), Exposito (25) (AAA), Federowicz (24) (AAA), Middlebrooks (23) (AAA), Lin (23) (AAA), Iglesias (22) (AAA), Tejeda (22) (AA)) Pawtucket roster (age as of 3/30/12): (SP) Doubront (24), Weiland (25), A.Wilson (25), Tazawa (25), [MLFA] (FA: Millwood, Duckworth, Fox) (RP) [MLFA], [MLFA], Portice (26), Garrison (26), Rice (25), Santeliz (25) (re-signed as MLFA), Hottovy (30) (FA: R.Williams, Pena, Jr., Maxwell) (OF) Hassan (23), Lin (23), Kalish (24), Chiang (24) (gone: Sheely, Nava) (IF) Anderson (24), Thomas (25), Iglesias (22), Middlebrooks (23), Dlugach (29), [MLFA] (gone: Daeges, FA: Luna, Spears) (C) Exposito (25), Federowicz (24) Portland roster (age as of 3/30/12): (SP) Pimentel (22), Ranaudo (22), Huntzinger (23), Balcom-Miller (23), C.Hernandez (23) (RP) Lee (25), Ebert (25), Volz (24), Batista (23), Cabral (23) [two of Latimer (26)/Clay (24)/Herold (25)] (gone: M.Gonzalez, Kehrt, FA: Fernandes) (OF) Brentz (23), Hazelbaker (25), Wilkerson (24), Dening (23) (IF) R.Rodriguez (26), Tejeda (22), Dent (23), Vitek (22), Hee (25), Padron (25) (FA: Khoury) (C) Ibarra (24), Butler (25) (FA: Spring) On the fence: (SP) Britton (22), Ruiz (24), Pressly (23) (RP) Martin (25), Marin (23), Bayer (26), Gleason (24) (OF) Hissey (22), Mailman (23), Pichardo (23), Bermudez (24) (IF) Head (20), Gibson (22), Gentile (25), Kang (24) (C) Wagner (27), Peley (24) Last Edited By: amfox1 06/30/11 5:39 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Arquimedez Bozo		#1	[url]	[-]
Posts: 11831 06/30/11 11:16 AM Chris Hatfield Executive Editor SoxProspects.com	A couple of comments regarding your assumptions: - Are you assuming that both Boston and Scutaro will decline his mutual option? I think it's certain the club declines the $6M, but I'm almost as certain he'll take his $3M and fill the 25-man spot you've got Sutton filling. - I'll agree to disagree with you if you really think Rice will get added, but I can't see it. They didn't this past offseason, so I don't see why that would change given how he's pitched this year and the fact that Weiland and Wilson are almost certainly past him on the depth chart now. - This doesn't have much effect on the projection, but I doubt they'll release Matsuzaka, if they're even allowed to (which I don't think they are, right?). He'll spend the year on the 60-day DL, so like I said, same difference. - Just for reference for those reading, Fife would also need to be added to the 40-man if he's around. I agree with Amfox that there will be at least a couple players who will need to be on the 40-man that get traded, just for logistical purposes, and Fife's a pretty good candidate for that. - I sincerely doubt that Linares will be the 4th outfielder after missing so much time with that ankle injury, especially since they'd need to add him to the 40 when spots are at a premium given the number of minor leaguers they're going to have to add. "I think the baby is sleeping right now." - Jonathan Singer Twitter: @ChrisHatfield/@SoxProspects / SoxProspects on Facebook
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Yirmiyahu		#2	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3079 06/30/11 11:30 AM Forum Moderator	Anyone know exactly how Scutaro's contract is structured? There's a a $6M team option, $3M player option, and a $1.5M buyout. But I'm not sure of the chronology of the option decisions, or when the buyout would apply. Basically, I think it'd be an easy decision to obtain Scutaro's services for just $1.5M extra, even if it is only to flip him to another team. ADD: Didn't see your post, AB. If I was Scutaro, I'd pocket the Red Sox' $1.5M buyout and try to get $3M-$5M from another team. But that decision could come down to how much he likes Boston. And agree with you about Rice/Matsuzana/Linares. Last Edited By: Yirmiyahu 06/30/11 11:35 AM. Edited 1 time.
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amfox1		#3	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8309 06/30/11 11:38 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Arquimedez Bozo wrote: A couple of comments regarding your assumptions: - Are you assuming that both Boston and Scutaro will decline his mutual option? YES. I think it's certain the club declines the $6M, but I'm almost as certain he'll take his $3M and fill the 25-man spot you've got Sutton filling. I THINK SCUTARO WILL SHOP FOR A BETTER CONTRACT. IF SCUTARO WERE TO COME BACK, THEN I WOULD HAVE NAVARRO IN AAA (SUBJECT TO THE ANSWER TO THE LINARES QUESTION BELOW). - I'll agree to disagree with you if you really think Rice will get added, but I can't see it. They didn't this past offseason, so I don't see why that would change given how he's pitched this year and the fact that Weiland and Wilson are almost certainly past him on the depth chart now. I STILL HAVE ONE 40-MAN SPOT OPEN (WHICH DICE-K WILL FILL IF NEEDED), EVEN WITH LINARES AND RICE ADDED. RICE IS A YEAR OLDER, A YEAR MORE DEVELOPED AND THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF LOSING HIM TO RULE 5. I DON'T GET THE "GIVEN HOW HE'S PITCHED THIS YEAR" COMMENT - HIS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIS PORTLAND NUMBERS. LESS K/9 BUT STILL ABOVE 9, WITH A LOW BAA AND TOO MANY WALKS. - This doesn't have much effect on the projection, but I doubt they'll release Matsuzaka, if they're even allowed to (which I don't think they are, right?). He'll spend the year on the 60-day DL, so like I said, same difference. SEE ABOVE. IT MAY BE THAT HE WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER FROM NOVEMBER TO MARCH BEFORE GOING ON THE 60-DAY DL, SO HE WOULD TAKE UP A 40-MAN ROSTER SPOT DURING THE OFF-SEASON. - Just for reference for those reading, Fife would also need to be added to the 40-man if he's around. UNDERSTOOD, BUT I THINK THE RED SOX WILL MAKE A NUMBER OF MOVES AS WE APPROACH THE TRADE DEADLINE WITH FUTURE 40-MAN ROSTER SPOTS IN MIND. FIFE AND BOWDEN SEEM TO BE THE MOST LOGICAL, AS THEY HAVE SOME VALUE TO OTHER TEAMS BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO FIT INTO THE RED SOX'S LONG-TERM PLANS. I agree with Amfox that there will be at least a couple players who will need to be on the 40-man that get traded, just for logistical purposes, and Fife's a pretty good candidate for that. - I sincerely doubt that Linares will be the 4th outfielder after missing so much time with that ankle injury, especially since they'd need to add him to the 40 when spots are at a premium given the number of minor leaguers they're going to have to add. IF HE IS HEALTHY AND HITS IN SPRING TRAINING, HE'S GOT A SHOT. OTHERWISE, PENCIL IN A RHH FA OF FOR THE 4TH OF SPOT (I SEE NAVARRO AS MORE OF A 13TH MAN THAN A DEDICATED OF). Answers in ALL CAPS above.
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amfox1		#4	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8310 06/30/11 11:39 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Note that I am still working through the AA pitching, so I will continue to tinker.
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SoxSail		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1579 06/30/11 12:15 PM	Maybe this is better asked in another thread, but what about Fife's development doesn't fit the Sox' philosophy and plans? He's a very similar pitcher to Masterson, no? Its Thurday[sic]! After Thursday is Friday! And after Friday is Saturday, and Sunday is afterwards! Fun fun fun! -joshv02
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amfox1		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8313 06/30/11 12:32 PM Senior Forum Moderator	SoxSail wrote: Maybe this is better asked in another thread, but what about Fife's development doesn't fit the Sox' philosophy and plans? He's a very similar pitcher to Masterson, no? No one said Fife's development didn't fit into the Red Sox's philosophy. He's an upper level tradeable arm, though. With Weiland, Doubront, Wilson, Tazawa and Rice and the returning major league pitchers, the system has plenty of depth next year without Fife. As to a comparison with Masterson, very is an overstatement. Both are fastball with great movement, curveball and changeup. Both are better against RHH than LHH. I think that's where the similarities end. Masterson was an extreme GB pitcher in AA, with a GO/AO of 3.4. Fife's GO/AO is less than half that number. Masterson had top end velocity of 96-97. Fife's top end velocity is 91-92. Masterson averaged about 1 K/inning. Fife is 0.7 K/inning. Fife projects as a back-end NL starter or a reliever. He has value, but not nearly as much as Masterson did. Last Edited By: amfox1 06/30/11 4:44 PM. Edited 1 time.
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kingstephanos		#7	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 51 06/30/11 12:35 PM	amfox, Can the Sox truly rely on Jed Lowrie being their everyday SS in 2012? Lowrie has only played 100+ games (in-season) once in his professional career. Asking him to do that next season when he is currently on the DL seems a little forced, even with his potential with the bat. Ultimately, it looks like the Sox may need another SS (not just a utility guy) to supplement the position. This puts Scutaro's option into play. Perhaps, when Lowrie comes off the DL, the Sox look to build him up as an offseason trade chip - because Lowrie is falling into the "injury-prone" category.
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Yirmiyahu		#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3083 06/30/11 1:02 PM Forum Moderator	Re: Fife. It's not just that he's a low-ceiling right-hander in an org with a lot of good pitchers in the high minors. It's that he'll need to be added to the 40-man this fall. The 40-man is already cramped, as at this point, a lot of our AAA depth consists of prospects rather than minor league free agents. Significant prospects that are eligible for Rule 5 this fall: Middlebrooks, Weiland, Lavarnway, Britton, Federowicz, Lin, ReyRod, Rice, Fife, and Chiang. Those last few aren't going to be worth the roster spot, unfortunately.
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amfox1		#9	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8316 06/30/11 1:35 PM Senior Forum Moderator	king - Lowrie is an open question. My belief is that the organization is not paying $5mm for Scutaro but may very well live with the $3mm to have Scutaro as an emergency valve, especially given the need for Iglesias to have more AAA at-bats. It is more likely that the Red Sox will look to trade Lowrie if/when it believes that WMB and Iglesias can move up to Boston. I'd look to ASB 2012 as being about the right time to trade Lowrie and/or Scutaro, not this offseason. Yirm - Agreed on Fife. I probably could have made the point clearer, but there will be several moves made in the short term with an eye towards the offseason 40-man roster. I think Rice is a possibility for a 40-man roster spot (or to be included in a trade). Not guaranteed for sure, but he has a mid-90s fastball and has now had 1.5 successful upper level years. Don't want to conclude that he might not be worth the roster spot.
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amfox1		#10	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8319 06/30/11 5:28 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Additional thoughts on the upper minors reliever pool: Pawtucket Rice (25) - big arm, similar numbers while moving up a level, MLE in the low 4s Santeliz (25) - big arm, poor control, has been inactivated, I have him re-signing but could easily see him leave Hottovy (30) - lock to stay, even if DFA'd in the offseason Portice (26) - see him as JAG but after two years in Portland should get a chance in Pawtucket Garrison (26) - similar to Portice [3-4 MLFAs - don't see anyone else in Portland who I think will stay getting promoted] Portland Lee (25) - I think they'll convert him to relief after this year to see if his FB will play up in shorter doses. Cabral (23) - Has potential but needs more time at this level. Not likely to be selected in this year's Rule 5 draft. Volz (24) - Needs to sharpen arsenal and command but deserves a move up. Ebert (25) - Doesn't give up many hits, needs to refine control of average stuff. Deserves a move up. Batista (23) - Better stats than stuff, needs to be challenged at higher level to see if his arsenal will play. In the mix for the remaining 2-3 spots Clay (24) - His lineage probably gets him one more chance at this level, but he looks like he's topped out to me. Latimer (26)/Herold (25) - Lefties that need to be tested at a higher level, not sure there's that much there but we need to find out. Pressly (23) - A move to the bullpen may be in the cards, as his FB may play up there. He needs to sharpen his control considerably. Ruiz (24) - Groundball pitcher, who has improved as the year has gone on. He might be able to stay as a starter for now. Bayer (26) - Groundball pitcher, who has played a valuable role but not sure there's a spot for him next year. Martin (25)/Gleason (24) - don't know enough to assess but Martin, the 6'7" RHP, is putting up some interesting numbers. You could add Maxwell, M.Gonzalez, Fernandes, Williams and Pena, Jr., but I don't see any of them remaining in the organization past this year. I also put Kehrt on the endangered list. His ability to eat innings is valuable to a team but he is way too hittable, even in short doses.
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left coast bosox fan		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 6184 07/01/11 8:55 AM Veteran Member	I'm guessing that Ortiz is going to be looking for a contract longer than Theo is willing to give him. I also question Linares making Boston because of the season ending injury, otherwise, have no qualms about any of that. I also wouldn't be so sure Tek won't be back. I actually can't believe I'm saying this but, he's doing quite well in a limited playing time role. ADD: I also believe that even if Iglesias continues to hit well (he's done well since adjusting his mechanics), that there is no way he will be on the opening day 25 man. With his contract, it would be dumb to use up a year service time because of a month's Boston time. No matter what he does, Lowrie/Navarro/Scutaro/Sutton can hold the fort until there are less than 170 days remaining in the season. ADD2: The Sox might also have to think about protecting Spears as well. "Watching Jose Iglesias take infield practice is like baseball porn" ,"Best defensive shortstop prospect I've ever seen." Keith Law Last Edited By: left coast bosox fan 07/01/11 9:06 AM. Edited 4 times.
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BriantheTaoist		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2414 07/01/11 9:05 AM	I'm wondering if Kyle Weiland can be kept out of the major leagues much longer. I'm a believer in him as a starter, but I think it's entirely possible he could spend a year in the Boston bullpen next year as a transition to the major leagues. I guess it depends on whether the Sox think that they have enough starting depth without Wakefield in Doubront, Tazawa, and a free agent.
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gregblossersbelly		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1079 07/09/11 11:54 AM Veteran Member	Just wanted to give this a little bump to give us something to talk about during All Star Break. Have the following guys pitched themselves off of the 40; Pimental, Tazawa and Britton(not on yet could be Rule 5 if not)? Does A. Hassan have to be on it?
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DCRi		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1595 07/09/11 12:21 PM Veteran Member	Interesting thread. Good job by amfox1. I don't see Lowrie as the starting SS. I'm beginning to think he might not be with the team next year. That may depend on how Navarro does, and whether Iglesias starts to show any life in his bat. Tazawa hasn't shown anything so far on which to base any projection, but I suspect he may slide off the radar. Also, Pimentel and Britton are having tough years and unless they show significant improvement in the second half, probably essentially have lost quite a bit of luster, as well as position. I think that Varitek might get another year. It's a long shot, but it can't be ruled out. I agree about Reddick, but I also don't see Linares as the 4th OF. I think this is where the Sox will add a RH OF either by trade or FA. I think the Sox might have been inclined to go for an existing elite OF here if all the problems had not developed with the pitching. If there is not a substantial improvement in the second half, Lackey either will go during the off season, or will be under the gun at the begining of next year, and quickly gone if he is not better. I think Bard will be the closer, but who will replace him? I'm not convinced that person comes from inside the organization.
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charliezink16		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 671 07/09/11 3:09 PM	Another question I feel should be added to DCRi;s list: Even though he is 24, should we expect Ibarra to be in Portland by next year when he is still in XST at this point? Twitter (Tweet about Sox alot) YouTube Account
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TokenWilliams		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1672 07/09/11 3:48 PM	Why are we assuming the Sox won't pick up Wheelers option? I believe they will pick up the option this offseason, unless he doesn't pitch well the rest of the season. I expect him to pitch well though and the option to be activated. He's pitched well since coming off the DL and they'll continue to use him in the role he should be used in, which is 6th/7th inning and not the later innings.
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gregblossersbelly		#17	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1081 07/09/11 4:17 PM Veteran Member	TokenWilliams wrote: Why are we assuming the Sox won't pick up Wheelers option? I believe they will pick up the option this offseason, unless he doesn't pitch well the rest of the season. I expect him to pitch well though and the option to be activated. He's pitched well since coming off the DL and they'll continue to use him in the role he should be used in, which is 6th/7th inning and not the later innings. His option is for 3m. Very reasonable if he produces like he has since he came off of the DL. I think a pen like this could work; Closer - Bard Set up - Jenks - I'd be nervous about him based on what we've seen so far. 7th - Albers - He has been throwing gas. 95 with movement. Long Man - Aceves 6-7 - Wheeler I'd like two lefties. F. Morales and F. Doubront. Doobie could move up to 7th or 8th inning guy if he's throwing well. It would be pretty inexpensive and allow us to make an in-season trade if we need help. Don't forget we'll still have Wieland and Alex Wilson down in Pawtucket. Both should be capable of helping out. Allows us to re-up Papi. And, maybe go after a more established RF(Ethier) or SS (Hanley) if we're so inclined.
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Boomerangs		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 212 07/09/11 6:52 PM	To me, Fife and Rice are probably not on the 40 man roster next year, meaning they are exposed or the last piece in a trade. Bowden should be decent trade bait right now IMO. He's also good depth. They should be able to get something for him though. Same with Oki. Some national league team should want this guy! They should try to trade him again. I have a feeling that the Sox will want to bring Tek back. Even with Lavarnway playing so well. Will they want to pay Papi what he wants though? He probably can get a multi year deal now and the Yanks might be in that bidding. Between the Tek and Ortiz issues, we may well be seeing Lavarnway with Boston at some point if he keeps creaming the ball. He's on pace for 39 HR over a 600 AB season right. They will find a place for him somewhere if they can.
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WillyCoPapi3		#19	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4675 07/09/11 6:58 PM Veteran Member	I would be very surprised if Fife isn't added to the 40-man roster. Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher. -FenwayTheHardWay
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JimRiceRocks		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1675 07/09/11 7:17 PM Veteran Member	If Fife is exposed to the Rule 5, he will get selected and he will help out a mid market team next year. He is probably a good trade candidate this offseason or at the trade deadline. "You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan "No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan
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