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Posts: 8781 08/31/10 10:08 AM Mike Andrews Editor-in-Chief SoxProspects.com	Tags : None Discussion on the Community Rankings can go in this thread.
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back2basix3593		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 356 08/31/10 9:17 PM	so "brent l" I really hope this was a mistake on your part 34. Che-Hsuan Lin
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norbit14		#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3232 08/31/10 11:34 PM Veteran Member	I have two questions for people: What was the criteria you used to make your list? and What type of prospects do you feel you have a bias for or against? My criteria was to balance stats with scouting report and upside with high floor. I place a lot more weight into scouting reports, especially the ones coming from people who have seen them. Obviously there are stats that can be used as a barometer to see how someone is progressing so they are an important part of the equation but I don't consider it as at the top of my list. I look at age/level, physical tools/likely hood of turning them into baseball skill and production(Look if he is turning his tools into production). My Math is not perfect and some people may disagree but that's how I like to do it. I am biased toward toolsy prospects that need refinement before turning it into baseball skills. It may be because I like the high reward even though I know they come with a fair amount of risk. My reasoning is that if you hit big on one it erases the 10 you have missed. As fan of the Red Sox I believe they can afford to miss on some and take the risk, I like what they have been doing lately. My raking may reflect this since I probably weighted upside more than high floor I am biased against late round College hitter. I don't know why but I really don't pay enough attention to them so my rankings may reflect that. This is not to question any-ones rankings since this are personal rankings so it should be different from poster to poster. I just want to know what some of you use as a criteria. Am Dominican and you??
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804Sox		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1103 09/01/10 11:40 PM	Notable Deviations from SP.com rankings (in parentheses): 3. Jose Iglesias (6) +3 14. Drake Britton (22) +8 [love the high-upside arm] 24. Jose Vinicio (34) +10 [great glove and holding his own offensively in US] 29. Derrik Gibson (39) +10 [plate discipline and speed are still there - not giving up yet] 31. Kyle Weiland (19) -12 [looking destined for the pen, so not top-20 for me] 34. Sean Coyle (25) -9 [don't know much about him, just liked others more] 35. Ryan Pressly (NR) +25 [has produced consistently while flying under the radar] 36. Manny Rivera (52) +16 [has played decently at Greenville, see no need to knock him in rankings] 37. Brock Huntzinger (NR) +23 [still producing, but stuff doesn't look like it will fly at MLB] 39. Keury De La Cruz (58) +19 [solid approach and tools all around] 40. Raynel Velette (NR) +20 [speculative play here, seems like a quality arm] Notable omissions: Fife (30), Rice (31), Fed-Ex (33), Perkins (35), Butler (38), and Coello (40) [really expected Rice to make my top 40 - think he could be a contributor in the pen. Ditto Fife and Coello. Already discussed Fed-X] Last Edited By: 804Sox 09/02/10 12:38 AM. Edited 1 time.
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804Sox		#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1104 09/02/10 12:25 AM	norbit14 wrote: I have two questions for people: What was the criteria you used to make your list? and What type of prospects do you feel you have a bias for or against? My criteria was to balance stats with scouting report and upside with high floor. I place a lot more weight into scouting reports, especially the ones coming from people who have seen them. Obviously there are stats that can be used as a barometer to see how someone is progressing so they are an important part of the equation but I don't consider it as at the top of my list. I look at age/level, physical tools/likely hood of turning them into baseball skill and production(Look if he is turning his tools into production). My Math is not perfect and some people may disagree but that's how I like to do it. I am biased toward toolsy prospects that need refinement before turning it into baseball skills. It may be because I like the high reward even though I know they come with a fair amount of risk. My reasoning is that if you hit big on one it erases the 10 you have missed. As fan of the Red Sox I believe they can afford to miss on some and take the risk, I like what they have been doing lately. My raking may reflect this since I probably weighted upside more than high floor I am biased against late round College hitter. I don't know why but I really don't pay enough attention to them so my rankings may reflect that. This is not to question any-ones rankings since this are personal rankings so it should be different from poster to poster. I just want to know what some of you use as a criteria. As far as criteria, I think I form my list the same way most do, by (as you note) rating players, balancing stats with scouting report and upside with high floor. We all simply differ in how we weigh and perceive these elements within individual prospects, and may not even maintain these weights consistently form prospect to prospect based on age, level, etc. For example, for me, stats matter more as players near MLB level or if they are older for their league. I weigh placement, tools, and scouting reports more heavily for age advanced players or those in the lower levels with more time to put it together (high rankings for Vinicio, Britton, De la Cruz). I value proximity to the MLB level, because there is limited projection involved and thus a more clearly established floor and ceiling; however, as players in the upper level demonstrate limited ceilings, I downgrade them heavily. This can be seen in my rankings of Fife and Weiland (who I still think is a good player, just got shuffled behind some others) among others. I have a pretty "big-picture" outlook, so I reward consistent development/production while I regard unexpected break-outs (and let-downs) with caution unless they are supported by scouting or pedigree. For this reason, I have ranked Gibson, Pressly, Rivera, and Huntzinger higher than others, while I have been slow to move players like Butler up in my rankings. Finally, I give significant weight to players at premium positions or those who profile to be spectacular in one or more aspects of the game. Iglesias and Vinicio both profile to have game-changing defense at SS, suggesting that they could play a valuable role on MLB teams even if their offensive games do not develop as expected. Fed-Ex is a player who would expect to benefit from this outlook as a terrific defensive catcher, but he just missed my top-40 due more to my optimism regarding other players, than pessimism about his potential as a future major-leaguer.
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Boomerangs		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 91 09/04/10 6:24 AM	I tried to follow the criteria outlined overall but I lean towards high upside players who can potentially give a major payback at the mlb level. If we get one mlb level starter from the minors each year that is great right! I probably also give new draftees higher reviews as compared to some players who have been in the system for a while but not put up good numbers or had scout input which indicates potential. I understand that the first year or 2 of data is often almost irrelevant but if a guy has never hit over .265 by the time he hits AA ball he better be real age advanced before I look at him as a top 10 prospect. A guy like Cecchini is almost a top 10 prospect to me just because I like everything I've seen regarding him as a prospect but he hasn't played in the minors at all yet. I know it is unconventional but for a lot of other prospects who have been in the minors for a while at least I have an indication where they stand. I probably would put Cecchini above Lin for that reason even though I know that is very unconventional here. Lin seems to be trending up though recently and certainly has tools! I seem to give Iglesias and Lavarnway higher evals for some reason. Iglesias has a fairly extensive track record from Cuba and he has held his own offensively in both the AFL and in Portland but is still rated much lower than Kelly even though they are the same age, on the same team. And fielding is his strength. I don't get it. He should be higher IMO. I'm not on the Kelly bandwagon although he is a great prospect. I believe when a guy gives consistently great numbers, even when he is age advanced some, it is a strong indicator still. Nava had tremendous numbers and warranted being rated higher last year. There is no reason to write guys like that off at age 26 when they put up consistent numbers like he did. I think we are underestimating Lavarnway as well. 98 RBI's now in 123 games. Very high OBP on top of a great offensive year last year. Big right handed bat which should project well in Fenway. A Yale educated mind which should bode well for his future pitch calling skill ( as it did for Tek's Georgia Tech mind ). I look at him as a top 5 guy now. Even though he is a little old for his level. The consistency of his numbers and his approach at the plate impress me a lot. I haven't seen his defensive ability though so maybe that's it. It seems to be improving quickly though from the reports I have seen. I just find it hard to believe he can't at least reach Victor Martinez level defensively and with that mind and bat, he should at least be a good back up catcher and part time DH. I think his emergence even has Victor Martinez signing implications potentially. He's a top 4 or 5 guy to me and a BA top 100. Just some quick thoughts.
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804Sox		#6	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1106 09/06/10 1:39 AM	Boomerangs: You have several unconventional rankings that i'd like to hear explained. You've already talked about Lavarnway, so no need to repeat there. Too high: Linares (12) - What do you know about him that we don't? He's already 26, and while reports indicate he's a good defender with average power, it sounds like he has an unrefined approach. Too low: Lin (29) - already an elite defensive outfielder with great strikezone discipline as a young player in AA. He definitely needs to show improvement in consistently driving pitches, but he's flashed decent pop against top-level competition (futures game). In contrast with Linares I don't see how you can prefer Linares. Middlebrooks (30) - has produced inconsistently over the first few seasons of his career but has great offensive and defensive tools that he has finally started to put together and even when struggling has shown steady progression as he has moved up through the system. You have Tejeda at 15, and i don't see how Middlebrooks can be far from that Navarro (32) - 22yro MLB-ready players that can play above average defense at SS, 2B, and 3B while showing good raw power in BP should not be ranked this low. There are definitely aspects of Navarro's offensive game that need refinement, but at 22 he has plenty of time to do so and has shown the aptitude to make adjustments as he has moved through the system. As a middle infielder or utility player, navarro wouldn't have to hit but so well to be valuable. Given his high floor combined with a still-higher cieling, he has to be considered one of the system's top prospects.
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back2basix3593		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 366 09/06/10 3:06 AM	I'd love to hear the reason that Alex Wilson is being left off of so many lists.
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chavopepe2		#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1565 09/06/10 7:33 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Alex Wilson was an oversight by me. I went back and added him. I think people tend to use other peoples lists as a template. If a player that should be ranked is left off it is easy to forget him. That is what happened to me.
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DCRi		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1420 09/07/10 11:41 AM Veteran Member	I try to pay attention to the detailed reports CEM and others post on the board from their eyewitness views of players. I read the scouting reports on new draftees, but I do not give them a great deal of weight. Generally, I will not rate very high a draftee who has not played pro ball yet, unless there is fairly compelling evidence of his skill (Ranaudo, for example). I give considerable weight to how a player does when advanced to a tougher league. I have raised my rating of Middlebrooks because he has improved at each level. I believe that minor league statistics generally reflect potential, with sufficient time and data and when there is somewhat of a consistent pattern. In looking at players who have made the majors, particularly the better players, their skills almost always are demonstrated virtually from their beginnings in the minors. I will not downgrade a player substantially for having one bad year, especially if there is significant improvement the next year. This is especially true with pitchers (Bard is a great example). Also, if a player is very young, I will give him a break for having a bad year, or even a couple. Look at what has happened to Tejeda. He finally is living up to the initial hype and he still is very young. However, I did mark down Renfroe, and he is not on my top 40 list, because he had quite a bit of prep time before going to Lowell, between the fall last year, and XST. Brentz barely made my list also, and only because he did a little better towards the end. I moved Lavarnway far up my list because he did not have to even breathe hard making the transition from A+ to AA. Most players, even the best ones, seem to hiccup a little at that point. Anderson did not at first, but then had his bad season last year at AA. He made up for it this year. I tend to rate players higher if they seem to be making adjustments and improving, especially at AA and AAA, thus Kalish, Reddick and Anderson are so highly rated on my list. I did not rate Kelly number one because I do not think he showed enough at AA to be number one. I rated him as high as I did simply on the basis of the reports I read on this site. I have a little concern that maybe he is just shy of what he needs to be a dominant pitcher, but he also is very young and could show up with that next spring.
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Average Fan	Final Stats	#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 366 09/07/10 7:51 PM Veteran Member	This be it. Edit: That seems to have been an incorrect link. Fixed. Last Edited By: Average Fan 09/08/10 2:30 PM. Edited 1 time.
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TokenWilliams		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 982 09/08/10 9:33 AM	I do a lot of things that other people do (scouting reports, etc), but where I differ the most from others is I diminish the ranks of guys like Reddick and Bowden who are closer to the majors and have a higher probability of a major league career than guys in lower levels WHEN I feel they aren't going to be more than a bottom of the roster guy. I realize I could be wrong, but I don't see Reddick or Bowden being much of anything valuable at the major league level. Therefore, I drop their rankings. I go through the list and ask myself, "who would I rather have in the organization?"; I ignor the major league roster and other prospects at the same position so I don't weight someone based on where they play. I take into consideration that a SS is more valuble than a second baseman, etc, but not we have 3 short stops already so I'm more willing to get rid of our 4th.
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Average Fan		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 368 09/08/10 5:47 PM Veteran Member	Amfox, I saw your note in the archived thread that your list was wrong, but I think it's OK now. At the time you wrote that I hadn't finished my last pass through for updates / errors. I also corrected the link address, this is the one that works.
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TokenWilliams		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1462 03/22/11 10:25 AM	I'd love to hear some talk on the 2011 rankings people are doing. Unfortunately, the Meta forum doesn't get as much love from many people so they don't even see the threads, but we can try anyways. I like high upside guys even if they are further away. Guys like Bogaerts and Cecchini make my top 10 because of this. Bowden dropped completely out of my rankings this year (at this point). Not because I don't think he may have a decent enough career somewhere some place, but because I'd rather have all the other guys I ranked in my organization over him at this point. I hope the Red Sox trade him to somewhere like the Padres or Pirates to let him pitch out of their bullpen for a season to see what he can do.
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Yirmiyahu		#14	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2470 03/22/11 11:09 AM Forum Moderator	TokenWilliams wrote: I like high upside guys even if they are further away. Guys like Bogaerts and Cecchini make my top 10 because of this. Bowden dropped completely out of my rankings this year (at this point). Not because I don't think he may have a decent enough career somewhere some place, but because I'd rather have all the other guys I ranked in my organization over him at this point. One thing about this. Adopting a philosophy of high-upside is fine, but I think with some players, people assume they're high-upside when there's no evidence of that. Players who are new to the org, are recent draftees, older guys who have a non-traditional background, or are Cuban players. Guys like Juan Carlos Linares, Chris Hernandez, Nate Spears, Adalberto Ibarra, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Jorge Padron, get a lot of attention and speculation just because they're unknown quantities. And some people rank them at the expense of boring home-grown guys like Yamaico Navarro, Luis Exposito, Michael Bowden, Mark Wagner, etc.... Give me the known high-floor guy in the high minors over the unknown one who might turn out to be that.
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TokenWilliams		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1463 03/23/11 9:40 AM	The biggest problem with making a comment like I did (high upside) when discussing prospects is that there are a bunch of different levels. High upside, unknow, very little scouting and raw guys like you mentioned are different than the high upside, younger players like Garin Cecchini. These discussions get into "gut feel" after processing all the information at hand. We all have our own internal programs that process it and give us results. I'm not so sure Nate Spears or Chris Hernandez are guys I'd consider high upside or unknown products. I am on the other side though when it comes to guys like a Michael Bowden who you know has no real upside whatsoever. At this point it looks like a long-shot to be a back rotation starter. To me that's his ceiling, not his floor. When we use a term like "floor", sometimes it gets lost that we're just talking about probable or likely outcomes, not a definite. When the ceiling is that low and the probability of reaching it isn't super high then I definitely want the guy who has the potential to be A LOT more than that even if there's a much greater chance he doesn't get close. To find a 5th/6th starter type or mop-up guy is easy and cheap.
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804Sox		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1208 03/30/11 3:12 AM	Community: What's up with the recent Workman helium? I ask this as an honest question - do we know stuff now that makes us more optimistic? Boomerangs: Are you contrarian in your rankings for its own sake? In particular, ranking Stolmy 10 spots lower then anyone else on the basis of one batter is absurd, even by your standards. (No need to get into the Linares/Lavarnway/Navarro/Lin debate again, I suppose . . .)
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SoxSail		#17	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1477 04/10/11 9:28 PM	Boomerangs wrote: I believe when a guy gives consistently great numbers, even when he is age advanced some, it is a strong indicator still. Nava had tremendous numbers and warranted being rated higher last year. There is no reason to write guys like that off at age 26 when they put up consistent numbers like he did. Does the fact that he failed to succeed in the majors, and now may never make it back change your opinion on this style of evaluation? Its Thurday[sic]! After Thursday is Friday! And after Friday is Saturday, and Sunday is afterwards! Fun fun fun! -joshv02
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804Sox		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1216 04/10/11 11:34 PM	I think it's a little early to say Nava has "failed to succeed in the majors." It's true that he might not get another shot, but I think circumstances would be to blame. Much worse players have gotten extended playing time, and who knows what Nava would do if given the chance?
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charliezink16		#19	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 942 09/01/11 12:45 PM	I'm shocked to see Jose Iglesias ranked as low as our 14th ranked prospect on some lists. I know he failed to hit this year but his defense is still at a ridiculous level, and he's so young for AAA that his hitting will take time. I know it's the same song and dance, but ranking him as low as 14th is as if people are already writing him off which I find ridiculous. JMO Twitter (Tweet about Sox alot) YouTube Account
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sdiaz1	RE: Iglesias	#20	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 13 09/01/11 1:06 PM	I can't say that I am too shocked. I have noticed a lot of posters here repeatedly writing him off. It's pretty clear tat Iglesias will never be a "good" hitter, but he has quick hands and a rather smooth swing with plus speed, so if he can put up an OPS+ north of 85 we are looking a very valuable player. I particularly like how one list had Vitek ahead of him. I mean really, Vitek is a whole year older than Iglesias, looks like a left fielder and has barely exhibited more power than Iglesias, putting up a .370 SLG. Last Edited By: sdiaz1 09/01/11 1:09 PM. Edited 1 time.
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