2011 Boston Red Sox Discussion Thread in The Archives Forum

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2011 Boston Red Sox Discussion Thread

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amfox1	2011 Boston Red Sox Discussion Thread		Lead	[-]
Posts: 7358 08/30/10 11:29 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Tags : None As the calendar turns over to September and this team looks ahead to next year (no, they're not mathematically eliminated but they're not a playoff team, either), here is one man's potential 2011 roster (age as of 3/31/11): Pitchers Starters [total 48.67 AAV + Tazawa]: Buchholz (25) (0.5 AAV) (2014 control) Lester (27) (6.0 AAV) (2013+t) Beckett (30) (17.0 AAV) (2014) Lackey (32) (16.5 AAV) (2014) Matsuzaka (30) (8.67 AAV) (2012) (AAA) Doubront (23) (LH) (AAA) Tazawa (24) (RH) (1.1 AAV) [AAA SP] [AAA SP] (AA) Pimentel (21) (RH) (assumes no changes in the top five starters) Bullpen [total 11.86 AAV (est.) + FA]: Papelbon (30) (10.5 AAV (est.)) (2011 control) (closer) Bard (24) (0.43 AAV) (RH setup) [FA LHP] [FA RHP] [FA RHP] Atchison (35) (0.5 AAV) Bowden (23) (0.43 AAV) (RH) (no options remaining) (AAA) Richardson (27) (LH)^ (AAA) Manuel (27) (AAA) Rice (24) (assumes Okajima is gone, Delcarmen is non-tendered and Wakefield retires, Atchison's option is exercised) Position players [total 46.92 AAV (est.) + FA for starters + FA and 9.04 AAV for bench]: Starters: LF - Kalish (23) (0.43 AAV) 2B - Pedroia (27) (6.75 AAV) (2014+t) 1B - Youkilis (31) (10.31 AAV) (2012+t) DH - Ortiz (35) (8.0 AAV (est.)) (re-signed through 2012) CF - Ellsbury (27) (0.75 AAV) (2013 control) RF - Drew (35) (14.0 AAV) (2011) 3B - [FA 3B] SS - Scutaro (35) (6.25 AAV) (2011+m) C – Saltalamacchia (25) (0.43 AAV) (2013 control) (assumes Martinez (A compensation), Beltre (A compensation), Lowell, Hall, McDonald and Varitek/Cash are gone, Ortiz is resigned as DH for 2/16) Bench: Patterson (27) (0.43 AAV) Lowrie (26) (0.43 AAV) (2014 control) Wagner (26) (0.43 AAV) Cameron (38) (7.75 AAV) (2011) (AAA) Reddick (24) (AAA) Exposito (24) (AAA) Anderson (23) (AAA) Navarro (23) (AAA) Nava (28) (AAA) Iglesias (21) (0.55 AAV) (AA) Tejeda (21) Last Edited By: amfox1 08/30/10 11:33 AM. Edited 1 time.
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Duffman545	8/27-8/29 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread	#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1221 08/30/10 10:09 AM	Archie Graham wrote: Lee will be a Yankee. Crawford may be too, but whomever is the high bidder, the Sox will balk at the price tag for a LF. As confident as I was earlier in the year about this happening, there are a bunch of teams out there that may well be willing to spend big bucks to bring in these two. The Rangers said they really want to keep Lee on board, and there are rumors of mutual interest between Crawford and Oakland (who has spent a few years building a pretty damn solid staff, and has about $31 mil coming off the books in the combined salaries of Eric Chavez, Ben Sheets, Coco, Ellis etc. Also, the Tigers have about $70 mil worth of payroll coming off the books this year. Combined with the Sox' expiring contracts and any other teams I'm not thinking of, the Yankees will have plenty of competition, and unless they're willing to tack on $5 mil to every other teams best offer AGAIN, I don't see them sweeping this offseason's free agent market. As for the Sox balking at the price tag for a LF, who would you suggest? Jayson Werth? I like him as a player, but not at the price he'll likely command. Other than that there's Crawford, who if reports are correct, I wouldn't want the Sox matching offers for anyways. He's got to be the most overrated five-tool player in the game, considering he's only got two of 'em anyways. Magglio Ordonez might be worth a flier, if he can be had for a one-year deal to resurrect his career. All that said, I wouldn't be all that opposed to simply bringing back this team next year, with a few minor changes (bullpen, maybe with Kalish getting a full season in LF or CF). Simply being healthy could have brought this team into the playoffs.
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DCRi	Re: 8/27-8/29 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread	#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1411 08/30/10 10:24 AM Veteran Member	The problem with the argument that this year's team should be brought back next year is that it will not be this year's team next year. Some of the players are aging, i.e. Ortiz, Drew, Martinez, Scutaro, Beltre, Hall, Cameron and soon, if not already, Youk. Ellsbury is a question mark. The bullpen is a wreck. Beckett and Dice-K are question marks. Lackey probably will not get much better, if at all. The odds are astronomical against all, or even most. of these players returning to peak form, or, in the case of Beltre, repeating his performance this year. I think the Sox should re-sign Beltre and Martinez. I am on the fence about Ortiz. I think Cameron, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Beckett and Dice-K should be traded. Drew, also, but probably there are no takers. The time has come for a major rebuilding, and for players like Kalish, Anderson, Reddick, Rizzo, etc. to be given shots.
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Guidas	Re: 8/27-8/29 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread	#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 721 08/30/10 10:39 AM	DCRi wrote: The problem with the argument that this year's team should be brought back next year is that it will not be this year's team next year. Some of the players are aging, i.e. Ortiz, Drew, Martinez, Scutaro, Beltre, Hall, Cameron and soon, if not already, Youk. Ellsbury is a question mark. The bullpen is a wreck. Beckett and Dice-K are question marks. Lackey probably will not get much better, if at all. The odds are astronomical against all, or even most. of these players returning to peak form, or, in the case of Beltre, repeating his performance this year. I think the Sox should re-sign Beltre and Martinez. I am on the fence about Ortiz. I think Cameron, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Beckett and Dice-K should be traded. Drew, also, but probably there are no takers. The time has come for a major rebuilding, and for players like Kalish, Anderson, Reddick, Rizzo, etc. to be given shots. Added to all the speculation: Soriano on a one-year deal with Tampa. If the Sox don't grab him the Yankees will. Edit: I've changed my avatar in hopes that the new view will bring some BIG luck in the weeks ahead. Last Edited By: Guidas 08/30/10 11:11 AM. Edited 1 time.
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Duffman545	Re: 8/27-8/29 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread	#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1222 08/30/10 11:11 AM	While I agree with your premise, dcri, I think you have to look at it on a case-by-case basis. Ortiz has been "aging" for about four years now, and he's still got the third highest OPS on the team. He is not the problem. Yes, Victor will be another year older, but when healty he's better than a .800 OPS player. Hall and Cameron are ancillary players and I wouldn't expect them to make or break the team. At the very least a full year of Youk and Pedroia will provide more value than what they've given the team this year. As for Ellsbury even if he's not here next year/playing a full season, we can reasonably expect Kalish to provide more value than Ellsbury has this year to a team who will possibly win 90+ games. For all the flaws this team has, they're still one of the best teams in the league. I think people look at the fact that this is a third place team and is performing below some expectations and forget just how good this team really has been. Dice-K has given the Sox a pretty darn good third starter, Lackey has improved during the second half and Beckett. . . well, I just don't know what to say about that guy. The bullpen is a huge problem but they have the two most important parts, those being a closer and an 8th inning man. I guess I'm in the minority but I just don't see the need for a "major overhaul". This is one of the top five teams in baseball right now, with one of the teams ahead of them (the Rays) about to lose two of their three best hitters and their closer. The organization has learned a lot about what it has (Kalish, Buchholz, Doubront, Lowrie to an extent, SS depth and various prospects) and what it doesn't have. And really, will it be all that difficult to find relievers who can give them more than Oki/MDC/RamRam has?
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JT44		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 598 08/30/10 11:40 AM	I just threw up in my mouth a little bit when I realized there was the potential for Patterson to be on this team in 2011.
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DCRi		#6	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1413 08/30/10 12:02 PM Veteran Member	Amfox1, I have few disagreements with the probability of the roster you set out. I do think that Doubront probably has earned a spot on the team next year, unless he unearns it in the next few weeks. That assumes that the Sox decide to keep him as a relief pitcher. Your projection probably is correct if he is shifted back to starting, although if one of the five starters is not with the team next year, and has not been replaced by a big name SP from another team, he might be given a chance to start. I do disagree on the probability of Saltalamacchia being the starting catcher, although I am not opposed to it if he shows he can do it. Unfortunately, if your projection is correct then the Sox have another third place team. I have to believe - and hope - that Epstein will see that as well.
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amfox1		#7	[url]	[-]
Posts: 7360 08/30/10 12:09 PM Senior Forum Moderator	DCRi - You can disagree as much as you want; this is a discussion thread. So long as the discussion is thoughtful, it is welcomed. Doubront will probably get his own thread at some point. My projection assumes he is a starting pitcher and not a reliever. Right now, he is a reliever based on necessity, not preference. My projection assumes a free agent lefty reliever is signed. As for Patterson, he is mainly a placeholder. If Kalish, Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew are on the team, there is less need for Patterson.
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jabliss18		#8	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 25 08/30/10 1:30 PM	The major questions in my eyes for this team are 3B and C. The starting rotation is set for several years, let alone 2011, with Doubront being the 6th starter coming up from AAA to fill in for weeks at a time during injury time (see Wakefield early this year). I think (and hope) Kalish starts on opening day and I don't think Ellsbury or Papelbon gets traded because Theo couldn't get much value for them relative to what he's giving up. I agree with amfox that Ortiz is back on a 2 year deal at less money for lack of a better replacement, although it will be interesting to see what happens if his yearly slow start last longer than the first month... As far as 3B, there really aren't many possibilities. My feeling is that Beltre says thanks but no thanks and moves on to take a 4-5 year deal somewhere else. If we could keep him with a hard-line 3 year deal that's great, but I don't see it. I think maybe we get a Brandon Inge-type and let him compete with Lowrie for everyday duties at 3B and take advantage of his versatility elsewhere. At C, I think V-Mart is back next year. It's tough paying catcher-money for a guy that could be a DH by the end of the contract, but I like him as an above-average catcher for this year and next and a serviceable catcher/DH for year 3+. Salty is my backup with a chance to play himself into the lineup more often in 2012. What's really exciting for me about 2011 is the thought of Kalish playing full-time and Lars, Kelly, Iglesias, and maybe even Rizzo making their MLB debuts, even if just for a game or two (hopefully not mop up time at the end of September if the Sox are eliminated from playoff contention).
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amfox1		#9	[url]	[-]
Posts: 7361 08/30/10 1:46 PM Senior Forum Moderator	I should probably note that my projection assumes the Red Sox have approximately $40mm in dry powder to sign free agents (roughly $130mm AAV in current commitments, 40-man costs and benefits). Therefore, if they can find players, they should be able to fill the holes.
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qutennis5		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 218 08/30/10 2:45 PM	This team obviously has its flaws, but overall it doesn’t need a major overhaul to compete next year. A revamped bullpen is needed, but relievers are such a shot in the dark that even if you turn over the entire staff, it’s still not a guarantee to be better / good. I’m on the fence regarding Beltre as I’m not sure he can duplicate 2010 which would make him not worth the long term contract he will most likely command but also understand there aren’t many 3B options out there via FA or trade. There is also no way Ortiz’s 12M option should be picked up. I am one of those who think he’s playing on borrowed time and that any moment now we’re stuck with a player who can’t hit, can’t run and can’t field. I fully expect Beckett and Lackey to rebound which will be needed to offset some of Clay’s regression, because let’s face it, you can’t go into next year thinking he’s going to give up a low 2 era again. Should be interesting to see what Theo does in the offseason in regards to C & 3B, the biggest open areas on the team right now.
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SoxSail		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1368 08/30/10 2:45 PM	I'm moving this from the Napoli thread, which is basically DOA. redsoxdiehard30 wrote: In terms of Victor, I would like to see him be the primary backup catcher (2 games a week) and starting DH when he is not catching. I know he is an average DH, but I would rather have him than another year or two of Ortiz. Ortiz was basically the best DH in the world this year with Luke Scott had a higher wOBA and nearly as good a WAR and Thome has also had a good 90 games this season (same WAR as Scott). As Yirm said, Victor is not a good option for this team unless he is catching most of the time, as he would have to be paid like a stud catcher, not the average DH that he is. There are LOTS of moving parts with the Sox' C this off-season. Napoli is among the least important, as his claim is unlikely to go through The Sox could have back any combination of Brown, Salty, Tek and Martinez, with Salty the only "lock". If it's VMart and Salty, they could conceivably have a third catcher (Brown) as an emergency option, with Lowrie and Youk platooning at 3B, and Salty, VMart and Youk rotating through 1B. That still leaves you with a basically "free" roster spot, because you might not need a backup IF. Could be the Patterson spot to start the year or any number of other options. Note that I expect Wagner to begin in AAA no matter what, as he has show little more than Brown, and the Sox will need an experienced catcher at AAA to protect Exposito. "We're amazingly consistent in that every year we always have a left fielder and I'm guessing we're going to have one this year, too." -Tito
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qutennis5		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 220 08/30/10 3:59 PM	What’s this idea that Martinez would be an “average” DH? Where are the numbers backing up that claim? Because you can’t count his hitting stats when playing catcher and assume that’s what he’d put up as DH/1B. While it’s a SSS, from 07 to 09 he put up a .828 OPS as C and a .871 OPS as 1B and raked last yr when filling in at first in 255 AB’s with a .942 OPS. The sample may be small, but it’s even smaller of those claiming he would be average at DH. He’d also give you roster flexibility that Ortiz offers you none of, which should also be considered when “grading” someone’s value at DH.
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amfox1		#13	[url]	[-]
Posts: 7362 08/30/10 4:23 PM Senior Forum Moderator	qutennis5 wrote: I’m on the fence regarding Beltre as I’m not sure he can duplicate 2010 which would make him not worth the long term contract he will most likely command but also understand there aren’t many 3B options out there via FA or trade. There is also no way Ortiz’s 12M option should be picked up. I am one of those who think he’s playing on borrowed time and that any moment now we’re stuck with a player who can’t hit, can’t run and can’t field. I don't think Beltre will be back. He's looking for a four-year deal and to go back to the West Coast, supposedly. Oakland and Anaheim will both be in the mix. We get the draft picks (right now, both Oakland and Anaheim's first round picks are protected, but Oakland is a game away from the unprotected 16th pick). I don't think there's much chance that the Red Sox will exercise the option; they could offer two years, $12 million, though, and I believe Ortiz would take that. As for Martinez, not sure what it will take to sign him. The max would be a Posada-like 4/$52. I would think Martinez's market will be limited, though, with Detroit being the primary competition (Detroit's first round pick is protected). I'd think a 4/$40 contract would do it - the question is whether the Red Sox would offer him that many years or that much money for Victor's age 32-35 seasons (with the likelihood that he is more of a 1B/DH for the last couple of years of the contract).
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Archie Graham		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3255 08/30/10 4:54 PM	Duffman545 wrote: As for the Sox balking at the price tag for a LF, who would you suggest? Jayson Werth? I like him as a player, but not at the price he'll likely command. Other than that there's Crawford, who if reports are correct, I wouldn't want the Sox matching offers for anyways. I'm not suggesting anybody, because there is no reason to expect the Red Sox will even be interested in a LF'er, or any outfielder for that matter. The "can't sell low" rule will keep Cameron and Ellsbury on the team. Kalish will start in the minors. And look.. why should the Red Sox go out and do anything significant with positional players? Just read the thread. The fans are on board with "every free agent is too expensive, and/or will want too many years". Even our own free agents are not worth keeping, in the eyes of most fans. Ortiz is too expensive at 1/$12. So on and so forth. Last Edited By: Archie Graham 08/30/10 4:59 PM. Edited 1 time.
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SoxSail		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1369 08/30/10 5:00 PM	qutennis5 wrote: What’s this idea that Martinez would be an “average” DH? Where are the numbers backing up that claim? Because you can’t count his hitting stats when playing catcher and assume that’s what he’d put up as DH/1B. While it’s a SSS, from 07 to 09 he put up a .828 OPS as C and a .871 OPS as 1B and raked last yr when filling in at first in 255 AB’s with a .942 OPS. The sample may be small, but it’s even smaller of those claiming he would be average at DH. Again, grabbed from the Napoli thread, where this discussion doesn't fit IMHO: Yirmiyahu wrote: V-Mart has a career 120 OPS+. And a 114 OPS+ over the last 3 years. I want my DH/1B to hit better than that. This year, MLB first basemen have a 121 OPS+. Last year, they had a 125 OPS+. In other words, for a first baseman, V-Mart is average to slightly below average. While Victor may have better numbers as a DH, the other catchers I checked do not. Mauer, Posada, and Piazza all have better numbers as a C than as a DH. Furthermore, Martinez' career OPS+ as a DH is 71, as a 1B is 106, and as a C is 100. I don't think a three year sample size at one position where he plays very few games tells us anything about how he will hit in the future. That is basically the definition of SSS. I think it would be OK to use him as Adam suggests, as a C/1B for two years, and a 1B/DH/C for a year or two at the end of his contract, but to suggest that he is more valuable than Ortiz at the DH position is fairly unlikely, especially given the roster flexibility (1 or 2 year contract) and/or likely lower cost that Ortiz carries. Plus, if you sign Martinez to be the DH, and then use him at C occasionally, you are dropping your DH production even further when he is not available. "We're amazingly consistent in that every year we always have a left fielder and I'm guessing we're going to have one this year, too." -Tito
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gregblossersbelly		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 805 08/30/10 5:27 PM Veteran Member	I'm wondering how to replace Beltre if he walks. Don't want to move Youkilis to 3b. Sign C.Crawford. Trade J.Ellsbury + (Maybe Lowrie) for A. Ramirez and S.Marshall. Cubs will have to pick up at least 1/2 of Ramirez contract. C.Crawford - LF D. Pedroia - 2B D. Ortiz - DH K. Youkilis - 1B V. Martinez - C A. Ramirez - 3B JD Drew - RF M. Cameron - CF (Will be pushed by Kalish and Reddick) M. Scutaro - SS Save 31.5m Beltre 10m, Lowell 12.5m Lugo 9m Add 20m 15M Crawford, 5m Ramirez(Cubs pick up part) I think offense and pen better. Defense could be if Cameron and Scutaro are healthy. Forgot to put increase for V Mart in. Might be able to negate part of that by signing Papi 2/16m. Lowers Papi's contract, goes to VMart. A lot coming off next year; Drew, Ramirez, Cameron, Scutaro. Hopefully,, guys like; Iglesias and Kalish will be ready. Will make it a lot easier if we only have to pick up an of and 3b. Last Edited By: gregblossersbelly 08/30/10 5:32 PM. Edited 1 time.
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amfox1		#17	[url]	[-]
Posts: 7365 08/30/10 6:03 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Aramis Ramirez has a player option for $14.6mm next year plus a $2mm buyout. Are you expecting the Cubs to pick up nearly $12mm?
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jabliss18		#18	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 26 08/30/10 6:23 PM	Is awful too strong a term for Aramis Ramirez's defense at third? -15 UZR-150 this year, -5 last two years (not to mention .293 OBP this year). At that point, I'd rather see Youk go back to third and acquire a firstbaseman (and I don't want to do that). Just FYI, the list of 2011 free agent thirdbasemen with opening day ages (from mlbtraderumors.com) Adrian Beltre (32) - $5MM player option with a $1MM buyout. Option reaches $10MM with 640 PAs in 2010. Geoff Blum (38) - $1.65MM mutual option Jorge Cantu (29) Eric Chavez (33) - $12.5MM club option with a $3MM buyout Craig Counsell (40) Pedro Feliz (36) Jerry Hairston Jr. (35) Omar Infante (29) - $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout Brandon Inge (34) Mike Lowell (37) Melvin Mora (39) Jhonny Peralta (29) - $7MM club option with a $250K buyout Aramis Ramirez (33) - $14.6MM player option Miguel Tejada (37) Chad Tracy (31) Juan Uribe (31) Ty Wigginton (33)
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jmei		#19	[url]	[-]
Posts: 440 08/30/10 7:03 PM Forum Moderator	amfox1 wrote: Aramis Ramirez has a player option for $14.6mm next year plus a $2mm buyout. Are you expecting the Cubs to pick up nearly $12mm? My understanding of his contract (per Cot's and mlbtr) is that his option when picked up will result in a $14.6mm salary. If he chooses to decline it, he'd get a $2mm buyout. So the Cubs would pick up $10mm, which is still a little unreasonable but possible if the prospects we throw in are good enough. I do think Aramis is an interesting buy-low candidate, and if the Sox were willing to pick up salary (ie: most/all of his $14.6mm) I don't think it'd take much in terms of prospects to pick him up. His defense is, as mentioned, fairly bad, but his poor offensive numbers this year are mostly due to a career-low .244 babip (career average in the .290 range). His FB/HR% is near his career averages at around 12% and although his LD% has dipped this year, it's been replaced by more fly balls (a career-high 56.8%) rather than grounders or infield flies. He's a good bet for a .270/.340/.480/.820-type season with 25 home runs, similar to what we'd expect from a regressed Adrian Beltre next year minus the plus defense. I'd take that on a one-year, $10-15mm (depending on how much the Cubs pick up) deal while we wait to see whether WMB/Lars can make a push to start in 2012 (although the crop of 2012 FA 3B is pretty terrible, as well).
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fx20736		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 73 08/30/10 7:54 PM	jabliss18 wrote: Is awful too strong a term for Aramis Ramirez's defense at third? No.
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2011 Boston Red Sox Discussion Thread

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