The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread

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adiospaydro2005		#81	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1505 10/13/09 9:32 AM Veteran Member	This is going to be a pivotal off-season for Lowrie. He needs to address any potential surgercial procedures now and get in shape to compete for a job in Spring Training 2010. Based on the picture in today's Herald, he also needs to hit the weights hard this offseason as he looks pretty scrawny for a major league player. Perhaps the lack of muscle tone can be attributed to his inability to work out while recovering from surgery. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20091013jed_lowrie_wait_til_next_year/ Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220
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Bury the Hammer		#82	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 576 10/13/09 9:33 AM Veteran Member	jdb wrote: He said Ells takes awful routes and has to play to deep to make up for the fact. He even went as far as to say if Boston cares enough about its D that they should acquire a CF and move Ells to LF. I think they should explore trading Ellsbury depending on how he's valued by other teams. I don't think he's got it in him to be a patient enough hitter to the point where he won't always be at the mercy of his batting average. If they package him with prospects I think they could get a pretty impactful return considering that he's young, cost-controlled and already playing well at the major league level.
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Nexus		#83	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 214 10/13/09 9:44 AM	jdb wrote: Buster has an article up on ESPN insider and I will give you all a quick recap since I cant link it. He says its going to be hard to upgrade the offense with Lowell and Ortiz on the books. Looks at 2010 as the year Buchholz breaks thru to what most in baseball thought he was going to be. Brings up the possibility of us signing Tejada in an opportunity for him to win now. Also talked about how bad our D was this year and brings up Lowell, Bay, SS for most of the year and Ellsbury. He said Ells takes awful routes and has to play to deep to make up for the fact. He even went as far as to say if Boston cares enough about its D that they should acquire a CF and move Ells to LF. ASAL brought up Detroit's need for a closer. Paps for Granderson anyone? Good pop, great D, but bad against lefties and declining numbers (other than the 30 jacks). Detroit can afford an extension.... Ok, before I get killed.... I don't think the left side will be as bad next year if Gonzo returns and/or Lowrie finally gets healthy. Big "ifs", I know. DCR, I think AG is the better (harder) acquisition because of body type moving forward, his D, and contract/likelihood of reasonable extension. Fielder should and will be a DH if he's moved to the AL. If anything, I think Damon's late season decline and the realization AJax may turn out to be nothing more than a 4th OF on a big market club might be the indicator as to why the Yankees throw 9 figures at Holliday. That said, Archie's 2011 Yankee lineup assumes a 37 year old Jeter, a 36 year old Arod (after the "real" hip surgery he's having this offseason), and 40 year old Posada will all still be playing their respective positions. And that's fine with me. Last Edited By: Nexus 10/13/09 9:49 AM. Edited 1 time.
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qutennis5		#84	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 49 10/13/09 9:47 AM	Regarding Fielder, while costly to obtain, I also think he's the type of player who sooner rather than later will only be able to DH, and that will handicap the team's flexibility the way Ortiz does / did. Preferably the team's new DH would be able to play the field so that others can be given "a night off" without totally losing the bat, and that's something this team has been missing for many years. Now, if Theo really wants to get buck wild, he should get both Holliday and Bay and get rid of Ortiz, this way everyone in the lineup can play the field and there's no full time DH. I also realize it's not likely to happen. As for choosing Holliday over Bay, depending on what the difference is, might as well stick with Bay. Their career OPS+ is basically the same, and last year Bay had a very good offensive yr in Boston proving he can play in the bright lights. I don't think Holliday is worth the big premium he will likely command over Jason.
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TokenWilliams		#85	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 474 10/13/09 10:20 AM	w00kie13 wrote: I'll give it to you, you make some very valid points, but my biggest concern though is you just don't know how Holliday is going to handle playing in a high profile town like Boston. We know Bay can handle playing in Boston. We certainly know how Holliday will handle the pressure... I've seen him have 2 major mental lapses in the biggest games of his life... 1. Rockies traling 2-1 in the 8th inning of game 2(i believe) - Helton is up at the plate... Papelbon on the mound... Holliday is a sleep at first base and gets picked off for the 3rd out... 2. Cardinals - needs no intro - or summary other than he missed a routine fly ball and cost his team the game - they promptly get swept out of the playoffs... Sure he's done well in the batters box, but these two plays are inexcusable... he's a choke artist... this combined with the disaster that was his first foray into the AL means the Sox should not give him a major contract... too many questions and not enough answers.. When comparing Bay to Holliday - the biggest difference is you don't have questions with Bay... you know what he is and you know it's good for the team... is it great? maybe not, but it's not only very good... it's very safe...
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buffs44444		#86	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 1189 10/13/09 10:23 AM	ancientsoxfogey wrote: I think you have it nailed, Nolson. The Bay/Holliday issue, as an offensive comparison, is potentially very close. Ellsbury and Drew are fixtures unless/until somebody gets hurt. I think you're right that the Sox play it out with Papi and Lowell next year. Pedroia, Youk, and Martinez, predominantly at catcher apparently, are set. THEREFORE, the only place for the Sox to significantly upgrade their lineup next year is at SS, and since Hanley isn't coming here next year the best shot at an upgrade is a healthy, productive Lowrie. Will he do that? Damned if I know. But I think the organization wants to give him every chance, and I think a major reason for wanting to give him that chance is that the braintrust saw what lineup flexibility with switch-hitters does. It's what distinguished the Yankes' and Angels' lineups. The Sox could sorely use the offensive flexibility as part of the upgrade that Lowrie could give them. And if the Sox do sign AlGon or acquire another SS, Lowrie could then be insurance in case Lowell breaks down. I'm not sure that the only place that the team can upgrade is at SS, but taking that as a constraint, I'm not sure that I see the Sox tying their hopes to Lowrie again. Don't get me wrong, I love his potential as a solid everyday player and I'd love to see what he can do in ST. But if the team can only upgrade at SS, I don't see them standing pat with Lowrie. "Still, as Epstein said, Lowie has yet to prove he can stay healthy in the majors."---Boston Globe, 10/12/2009 I think it's more likely that they try to hook up with an old friend in Arizona, offer some financial relief and some non-elite pitching prospects, and try to acquire Stephen Drew if he's available. Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.
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TokenWilliams		#87	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 475 10/13/09 10:26 AM	And... 1. David Ortiz needs to be gone 2.. Papelbon should not and will not be traded... I wish I could say I'm surprised at some people for even bringing this up - but it's typical Boston fan 3. I find it amusing that people bring up Granderson as a replacement for Ellsbury because they are frustrated with Jacoby's lack of plate dicipline, etc... Have you ever seen or followed Granderson? He's a strike out KING, who doesn't walk or hit for average.... he's terrible versus lefties and he's regressed the last 2 years... Jacoby has moved in the other direction and is better in almost every aspect of the game except power... oh yea and he doesn't have a monster contract attached to him right now. 4. I expect a major acquisition, but i'm very confused as to what it iwll be... they will make a splash.. probably a trade... i hope we all enjoyed Casey Kelly while he was here
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dbfish8		#88	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 357 10/13/09 10:32 AM Veteran Member	Don't sleep on Jose Reyes at SS. He'll be 26 going into spring training and already has proven himself as a top SS. He is having offseason surgery but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. The Mets may be in rebuilding mode and have by now realized that Reyes has likely reached his peak potential. There have also been some character issues with him and they might be willing to unload him at the right price. Finally a solution at SS for the Sox? In addition, wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded in a related move (StL, ChC or Phi) in order to get parts to make that trade. Although the stats were still solid, Papelbon didn't look nearly as dominant and has proven himself to be a money first player and very likely wouldn't be resigned past 2011. Wagner could be resigned and hold down the position for another year until Bard is ready.
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AMarshal2		#89	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8988 10/13/09 10:43 AM Aaron Senior Moderator SoxProspects Forum	I really do not think that Mike Lowell will be the starting 3B next season. Theo has admitted that defense and road offense were the biggest problems this year and things he's going to try to improve. The biggest culprit on defense was Lowell and his home/road splits were horribly unbalanced. In fact, I'm surprised more people don't see it this way - I'd say it's way better than 50/50 that he is not the every day starter in 2010. Now, as for who they acquire as the replacement, I'm clueless. Watching Youkilis play 3B is not that much fun, I thought he was below average this year (though better than Lowell). Hopefully there is a better solution. This last year of Lowell's contract is basically a sunk cost. They should either eat the money and dispatch him to another team or use him as the back-up 1B/3B next year and platoon him with Ortiz against lefties. The problem there is Kotchman's role, but it's a small problem. aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep. tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
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AMarshal2		#90	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8989 10/13/09 10:55 AM Aaron Senior Moderator SoxProspects Forum	If the Mets do unload, the player the Sox should target is Wright, not Reyes. I do not see the Mets moving either because Minaya does not manage his team with its long-term interest in mind. Whether or not it would even be the right move, he always seems to be in "win now" mode, which would preclude a trade of either player. I buy your argument for why Reyes might be the one who is traded because of his behavior but that doesn't seem to be a trait that Minaya has focused on in the past. (Plus, Reyes is Dominican, and Minaya has given us plenty of reason to wonder if that carries weight with him.) With Wright's struggles to hit for power in Citi Field, it's possible that Minaya is down on him. As for why I prefer Wright to Reyes -- I already explained that I think the #1 priority is a well-rounded 3B. The Sox have two players who can reasonably be expected to man the SS position well between them with Lowrie and an option on Gonzalez (or the ability to re-sign him for cheaper). The Sox have nobody in the system and have no potential FA targets that fit Wright's profile. He's a middle-of-the-order RH'ed power hitter at a position of need. Plus, my impression of Wright's power is that his deep flies are similar to Jason Bay's in that he hits high fly-balls towards the middle of the park. Fenway wouldn't necessarily be the perfect park for him but it would be a lot better than Citi, where the power alley's are very deep. Additionally, The Monster might not take away as many HR's as he's not much of a line-drive pull hitter. This is just my impression though, I have not researched the numbers. In all, I think a player like Wright would go a lot further towards improving this Sox club than a player like Jose Reyes, who is a bit more redundant. aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep. tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
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yankshater213		#91	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 43 10/13/09 11:30 AM	My only beef with that is the cost Wright would come at. A 26 year old guy as well rounded as him, with the major league pedigree he has and the consistency it came with is extremely impressive. I don't think the Mets are going to just go willy-nilly on their team to unload them. A guy at 26 years old entering his prime who has averaged .310/.389/.518 with 27hr and 107rbi per 162 games isn't going to come at a cheap price at all. Would we have to give Buchholz? One of our more established guys like Beckett, maybe with Lowell? A Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish/Anderson/Tazawa type package? Wright is a very interesting option, and I think if the price is right, it'd be a brilliant move. The only thing I don't like about it is that it's lock Youkilis into first base and prevent Martinez from moving over there to give him rest from catching, but even that isn't too huge of a deal.
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Nexus		#92	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 215 10/13/09 11:50 AM	yankshater213 wrote: My only beef with that is the cost Wright would come at. A 26 year old guy as well rounded as him, with the major league pedigree he has and the consistency it came with is extremely impressive. I don't think the Mets are going to just go willy-nilly on their team to unload them. A guy at 26 years old entering his prime who has averaged .310/.389/.518 with 27hr and 107rbi per 162 games isn't going to come at a cheap price at all. Would we have to give Buchholz? One of our more established guys like Beckett, maybe with Lowell? A Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish/Anderson/Tazawa type package? Wright is a very interesting option, and I think if the price is right, it'd be a brilliant move. The only thing I don't like about it is that it's lock Youkilis into first base and prevent Martinez from moving over there to give him rest from catching, but even that isn't too huge of a deal. Seriously. Wright could videotape and distribute a threesome he made with Judy and Valerie Wilpon and they still wouldn't trade him. Last Edited By: Nexus 10/13/09 11:52 AM. Edited 1 time.
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raftsox		#93	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1361 10/13/09 12:08 PM	Token, Basing Holliday's career on two plays is dumb, and you're smart enough to know that. Papelbon actually has a pretty darn good pick-off move, so that play is moot anyways. I'll concede that I think Bay stays solely because he'll command less money/years and he is more apt to slide comfortably into the DH role following Ortiz's 2010 departure. I prefer Holliday however; to me he's a much more complete player that's worth the money. If we don't sign him we're relegating ourselves to horrible LF defense for the next 5 years because there's little reason to count on any of our current minor leaguers to be adequate bats for the position. DBfish, Reyes is an interesting option, but a speed guy tearing a hamstring is a big question mark. Will he retain his speed and will it effect his defense? If he's no longer a good defender, can't steal 60 bags a year, and can't hit 15 triples his value is very diminished. I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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WC Sox Fan		#94	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 39 10/13/09 12:33 PM	AMarshal2 wrote: If the Mets do unload, the player the Sox should target is Wright, not Reyes. Not to nitpick, but the main reason so many people want to unload Lowell is because of his defensive decline. Lowell (UZR/150): 2009: -9.8 2008: 15.6 2007: 8 2006: 7.7 2005: -1.2 Wright (UZR/150): 2009: -10.1 2008: 3.6 2007: 4.8 2006: -9.5 2005: -4.7 Every year since Wright has been a major league regular, including this past season, Lowell has been better than Wright defensively. Lowell is still recovering from a major hip surgery which limited his range this past season, although he seemed to improve slightly over the past month. Wright doesn't seem to have an excuse as far as I can tell. I know the grass is always greener on the other side, but Wright's defense won't fix the Red Sox problems. Although Wright or Reyes would be a pipedream as no NY team will ever "rebuild" in this era.
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jdb		#95	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 202 10/13/09 12:54 PM	According to todays ESPN rumors the Denver Post is reporting the Rox are willing to trade Brad Hawp. I just glanced at his splits and was surprised for his career he is just as good away from Coores as he is at home. Also KLaw says that he thinks our front office has seen how AL pitching can show holes in Hollidays swing and probably want pursue him. A name worth mentioning is Yunel Escobar. The Braves were supposedly fed up with him and might be will to listen to offers since they would have more time to find his replacement this off season. Also how close is the Reds 1B prospect (Alonso?) to being ready. Votto just turned 26 and is entering his prime.
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Nexus		#96	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 216 10/13/09 1:13 PM	One thing that hasn't really been discussed is the potential impact of the Rays decision on Carl Crawford's option. Desmond Jennings had a good enough year that should heavily influence the clubs decision in determining whether Crawford is worth 16% of the teams payroll. In addition to the notable arb cases they have coming, they also need bullpen help. I do not think he's a fit here (lefthanded and need a power bat), but I believe he is a perfect match to take over for Damon. He can be had for fewer years and tens of millions of dollars less than Holliday, making him more attractive to Cashman since their roster is already loaded with multiple long term deals. Not to mention he is a superior defender. This could definitely have some bearing on the Bay/Holliday negotiations. Last Edited By: Nexus 10/13/09 1:16 PM. Edited 1 time.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#97	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3120 10/13/09 5:11 PM Veteran Member	Keith Law Wrap up Bay over Holliday "They should get the deal done with Bay. Holliday has a lot of holes as a hitter that can be better exploited in the AL, something Boston knows not just from his stay in Oakland, but from when they faced him the 2007 World Series."
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soxcentral		#98	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1031 10/13/09 6:27 PM Veteran Member	Gammons latest column on ESPN Boston has some interesting ideas, however speculative it all may be. Some highlights: - The possibility of throwing out a reverse Hanley Ramirez trade and looking to 2011-12 where they can re-load with Kelly, Westmoreland, and some other young talent acquired for an established pitcher or hitter. - Flipping a reliever like Delcarmen or Ramirez for a 4th OF (Cody Ross or Ryan Spilborghs) who can play D. - He floats the idea of getting Beltre for 3B, while also mentioning Chone Figgins would be ideal but is older and will demand big money (not to mention LAA will likely retain him anyways) - Chris Ianetta and Kelly Shoppach may be targeted once again as a platoon C if Varitek doesn't pick up his option.
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adiospaydro2005		#99	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1506 10/13/09 6:55 PM Veteran Member	I assume that the pitchers that Gammons is referring to are Beckett and Matsuzaka. Beckett would clearly generate more value than Matsuzaka. I would expect that the Red Sox might be able to obtain an impact bat and two young starting pitchers for Beckett. Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220
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SeaDog19		#100	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 235 10/13/09 7:51 PM Veteran Member	This leaves us with a lineup of CF- Ellsbury 2B- Pedroia 3B- Youk C- Martinez LF- Choo DH- Ortiz 1B- Johnson RF- Drew SS- Gonzalez Umm...who would play baseball for us against a left-handed pitcher?
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The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread