Edes was the one who reported that they offered Westmoreland for Halladay, only to be publicy shamed into an apology a day later. The "next 10 days"
thing is silly talk but Aranguare is a much more reliable reporter from what I've seen.
SoxProspects.com
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Adrian Gonzalez trade speculation
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 Bury the Hammer |
#61 | |||
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Posts: 615 12/16/09 6:24 PM Veteran Member |
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hletterhart |
#62 | |||
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Posts: 41 12/16/09 6:30 PM |
albertpujolsin2012 wrote: A .355 OBP for a leadoff hitter is weak. Ellsbury's .347 OBP out of the leadoff spot puts him 11th out of 15 players with 500 PAs. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/109/sort/onBasePct/minpa/500 I feel Ellsbury could boost his OBP up to .370, which would be average for a leadoff guy.
Last Edited By: chavopepe2 12/16/09 6:38 PM.
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chavopepe2 |
#63 | |||
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Posts: 1225 12/16/09 6:40 PM
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Please do not post a quote within a quote (within a quote etc.). It jumbles up the board and makes it more difficult to read. Quote the relevant portion of the
post and delete the rest.
This is not directed specifically at you, but at the board as a whole. |
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Bury the Hammer |
#64 | |||
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Posts: 616 12/16/09 6:42 PM Veteran Member |
I'd take a .350 OBP from Ellsbury, the problem is his OBP is too average-dependent.
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hletterhart |
#65 | |||
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Posts: 42 12/16/09 6:48 PM |
Bury the Hammer wrote: I'm not sure, so correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't a .300/.350 line be more effective than a .280/.350 line? A hit is almost always more valuable than a walk, no? The only advantage to a walk over a single IMO is the mere fact that you're draining the opposing pitcher and potentially getting inside his head. |
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Bury the Hammer |
#66 | |||
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Posts: 617 12/16/09 6:59 PM Veteran Member |
If he hit .280 then his OBP wouldn't be .350, that's the whole point (see: 2008). I know someone is going to jump in and talk about improving plate
discipline, he's a young player, and I know his speed will always allow him to hit for a decent average, etc etc, which is all valid, I'm just not a
big Ellsbury fan and don't anticipate him ever becoming much more than what he is (which is not bad at all, but something I'm willing to trade for a
legit superstar).
Last Edited By: Bury the Hammer 12/16/09 7:04 PM.
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left coast bosox fan |
#67 | |||
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Posts: 3530 12/16/09 7:06 PM Veteran Member |
First,
AGon is not the only fish in the sea and the package that would get AGon will be weighed against the packages that it would take to get other fish. There's no rush although I would think that some deal, whatever that would be, will be done before spring training. The posts that speculate that Hoyer has the advantage are looking at the trade in isolation and not looking at the giant picture. Second, If Theo can't get a contract extension done for Beckett now, he has to know that the price will go up significantly this coming year when he'll only be able to get two draft picks for him. Beckett is to the Sox what the Santana's and Holliday's of the world have been. If we can't extend him, we'd be crazy not to trade him now or at the deadline. If we trade him and if we intend to pursue a Gonzalez type position player, we have to get a prime pitching prospect back as the key player in the trade (assuming we don't trade him for a major league first or third baseman). I say this because if we lose Beckett from the equation, we don't also want to lose Buchholz or Kelly and, most teams are looking for pitching. Having a pitching chip is incredibly valuable in trade scenarios. Third, Hanley at 3B and Youk at 1B would be the most expensive in term of trade costs but is significantly better for the long term than any first baseman / and Youk at 3B. Fourth, Having Cameron under contract for two years doesn't make Jacoby any less valuable as a trade chip but does make that option far more palatable when you also consider the likely timetable of Reddick, Kalish, et al.
Last Edited By: left coast bosox fan 12/16/09 7:17 PM.
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Tundy19 |
#68 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 153 12/16/09 7:38 PM |
several points/questions I would like to contribute:
1) I agree with the poster who stated that Ellsbury's value is too high to add with Bucholz. Again...the Sox are not going to find another player who can hit .300 and steal 70 bases for a LONG time. 2) Stemming from the above point, I assume that those arguments in favor of trading Ellsbury are also assuming that Kalish would be his soon-to-be replacement. Is this reality and does Kalish's potential = Ellsbury's? (honest question) 3) Why are people undervaluing Lars? Gonzalez, being 27, would effectively be the Sox' long-term first basemen (we'd control him through two seasons and undoubtedely would make a push to sign him long-term), which means Lars would be blocked. Lars had a poor season, but that is one season and I don't see how he suddenly gets displaced to "B" prospect status. 4) Kelly should not enter discussions here One man's opinion, but my starting pieces for Gonzalez would be Bucholz, Lars, Bard...and I think that's a solid start. A start mind you, but the Sox have plenty of quality pieces to work with here. |
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IKONOS |
#69 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 5 12/16/09 7:42 PM |
left coast bosox fan wrote:I totally agree with this point. As much as I think A-Gon will provide a Texiera kind of impact to redsox I like the Sox looking for a 3B option than a 1B option. If they get A-Gon and they cant extend him then they will end up paying a high price for a 2 year service. If they do extend him then they are potentially blocking Lars and Rizzo (yes I do think they both can reach majors and be significant contributors especially Rizzo). Also that would mean Youk will be on 3B and given his age his range might come down drastically and we dont have any prime prospects on 3B at this time (may be Lowrie and probably Renfroe in few yeasrs). On the other hand if they get a 3B and keep Youk at 1B then by the time Lars and Rizzo reach majors Youk will be completing his contract and it will give more options for Redsox. It also means this year V-Mart can play 1B when he needs rest from catching. I actually like the idea starting the season with Kotchman and see what options there are at mid season. I understand it will impact the hitting but if you compare last year starting roster with this year roster its like you are replacing Bay + Varitek + Lowell with Cameron + V-Mart + Kotchmann. Is it slightly inferior? yes, but it may not be that bad to start with given the strong defense and pitching we have. By mid season you will know where Kotchmann and Lowrie stands and probably Lars will have a bounce back season and you have better trading chips to get what you want. |
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hletterhart |
#70 | |||
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Posts: 43 12/16/09 7:52 PM |
Bury the Hammer wrote: I'm just saying in general, because you said Jacoby's OBP was too average-dependent. A .350 OBP is actually better if it's average-dependent -- as hits are typically worth more than walks. Obviously, you would prefer a .300/.380 line to a .300/.350 line. |
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Guidas |
#71 | |||
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Posts: 131 12/16/09 7:57 PM |
amfox1 wrote:Be nice if the writer defined "boatload." I'd say that if Theo could swing Kelly or Westmoreland, plus Reddick OR Kalish, plus anyone not named Inglesias from the top 10, let's make a deal. More likely Jed's asking for Kelly and Westmoreland, plus Reddick or Kalish et al. I would give that for Hanely like almost everyone else here. For Gonzalez I'd have to think long and hard - but if you're telling me you can get Gonzo for four guys who are still in A and AA and keep Ellsbury and Bucholz, I'd probably do it - unless I could get Votto or Zimmerman for one fewer prospect. |
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LloydBraun |
Ellsbury | #72 | ||
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Posts: 3 12/16/09 7:59 PM |
Personally, there is too much smoke here for there not to be talks of a deal. The signing of Cameron, the talk of the Sox looking for a RH outfielder.
Rosenthal is on it.
Ellsbury IS going to SD for Gonzalez. The sticking point is about who will accompany him. Right now, I would guess that Theo does not want to send Buchholz, Westmoreland or Kelly in the deal. The compromise, and there will be one, will tell the tale of this deal. My guess is that it will be Ellsbury, Bowden or Tazawa, Navarro, Reddick and one of the catchers. Hoyer knows the system, obviously, so there may be a player or 2 that would do not tend to focus on. You may even see Delcarman go there to close if they deal Bell. I may be wrong, but speculating is what makes the hot stove a fun time. |
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gregblossersbelly |
#73 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 650 12/16/09 8:11 PM Veteran Member |
If I were SD, I'd ask for Pimental too if can't get Kelly. Jacoby,Bowden,Pimental and Delcarmen works for me. If we trade Jacoby, don't want to include Kalish or Reddick. |
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back2basix3593 |
#74 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 90 12/16/09 8:15 PM |
If I'm Theo ,the only reason to give Cameron 2 years is to see the progress in the OF prospects in the system by then(most of all Westy),I just can't
imagine him Trading Westmoreland and quite frankly I wouldn't either ,with that said I'd happily trade Buchholz,Rizzo,Kelly,Reddick,Kotchman for
Gonzalez ,but Westmoreland is a deal Breaker for me (yes there is a man crush going on here)
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rodstero4 |
#75 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 25 12/16/09 8:27 PM |
back2basix3593 wrote: I'm not even allowed within 200 feet of Jillian's on January 9th... |
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PrahaSMC |
#76 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 773 12/16/09 8:34 PM |
Adrian Gonzalez has been worth 9.8 wins the last two seasons, at age 26 and 27. Even discounting the value of a marginal win to $4 mil (Fangraphs valued a win
at $4.48 mil last season), that means he was worth about $39 mil the last two years. Given his age and the fact that his core stats are trending positively,
he's likely to exceed that value over the next two, at a combined salary of $10.5 mil. That's an incredible value. Incredible.
The only player that would give me pause about adding into a trade for Gonzalez would be Buchholz, because we've seen glimpses of his upside at the ML level. Otherwise, this is a system likely to be ranked in the mid-teens, on the strength of a lot of depth, and some high-upside lottery tickets. I think people fail to appreciate the attrition rate with players below AA is enormous and, in a lot of prospect circles, people overrate prospects relative to real, tangible major league value. I don't think a trade will happen, but I think it would be insane to allow a Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland to be the sticking point in negotiations for a player of this caliber. Think of the Hanley Ramirez trade as the absolute worst case scenario for what happens when you trade a high upside prospect (and he was more advanced than any of the prospects in question); people still think the trade was justified, since Beckett contributed to a World Series championship in '07. IMO, the odds that Adrian Gonzalez contributes to a Red Sox championship are far greater than any of our prospects becoming a superstar, to the point where it makes you regret pulling the trigger. "This Kenny Mauer should go home to his wife... because nobody here loves him." - Tommy Heinsohn |
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back2basix3593 |
#77 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 91 12/16/09 8:42 PM |
PrahaSMC wrote: I wouldn't actually hang up the phone if they asked for Westmoreland ,but his upside is crazy and can't say I'd be happy getting rd of him even for Gonzalez ,with that aid I think they farm has enough talent to get it done by just saying Ellsbury/Buchholz + pick 5 not named Westmoreland . |
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hletterhart |
#78 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 44 12/16/09 8:42 PM |
gregblossersbelly wrote: Fine by me. Give everyone minus Buchholz, Kelly, and Westy. Bard is fine to include. People seriously overrate the value of relievers. Jacoby, Bowden, Reddick, Bard, Stolmy, and Gibson... I wonder if that's enough -- six players might even be too much of the quantity route over quality. |
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alnipper |
#79 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 164 12/16/09 8:58 PM Veteran Member |
I think AGonz is a great player. I'm not for trading 3 top prospects for him.
My first reason is injury. If he gets injured somehow we'd have nothing to show. My second is cost-control over 3 players instead of one. Lets be patient and sign Fielder next year and lose a draft pick. We'd save two top prospects. Keep in mind with Jacoby, if we trade him who hits lead off and can steal a base? He's our best lead off players on our roster probably and surely is our only base stealer. |
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Guidas |
#80 | |||
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Posts: 132 12/16/09 10:54 PM |
PrahaSMC wrote:My thoughts exactly. Kelly projects as a #2 at best - nothing to sneeze at but he's still hasn't pitched above A ball. Westmoreland is Sox only 5 tool positional prospect right now from all I read. Still he's 2 or more years from being an MLB starter. If I am Theo, I bitch and moan on them being "untouchable" for another day to try to keep the full package manageable, then relent but saving a player or two from the package because of it. Don't want to overplay the hand for incremental gains - Bay's agent just saw what happened when you do that. Now Bay will languish in Queens for the rest of his career. |
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