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fenway1 |
#41 | |||
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what are the different skills that Sickels make mention of?
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nheck |
#42 | |||
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Five Tools / Seven Skills
That was the first result on Google when I searched. Try harder next time.
I once lost a bet on who would have the highest season SLG% because of a scorer. The guy I had a bet with had a clear error ruled a double in
the last game of the season and it was the margin of victory.
It was amateur baseball and normally not something you would remember but in this case, the bet was who was going to ask a hot chick named Brin out after she lost her loser boyfriend. The other guy won, she broke up with her bf and he took her out. A year later they got married. Did I mention that she was hot, very hot ? Oh yeah, the official scorer was the other guys mother. I hate official scorers. - LCBF |
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mrrightwing |
#43 | |||
BLumbergh wrote: What is the average salary for a middle reliever? Somewhere in the millions, right? And what is the league minimum, which Bowden would get? $400K I believe. Obviously Mr. Lumbergh, you are familiar with the Office Space/Superman III maxim that if we can channel a lot of half-cents into one place (or in this case, half-millions of dollars) those half-cents can add up to a large sum. Respectfully, what part of this aren't you getting? Teams need middle relievers and 25th men, and it's better to develop your own middling talents and pay them service-time-controlled salaries than to have to pay full price in the free agency marketplace.
Last Edited By: mrrightwing 12/16/09 7:26 PM.
Edited 1 time.
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Arquimedez Bozo |
#44 | |||
amfox1 wrote:This is what I was trying to get at. Sorry, I've worked a ton the last month or so and I'm a bit out of it.
"2 more wins this weekend will only get us closer to being ranked #1 in the country." - Jonathan Singer
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BLumbergh |
#45 | |||
I dig the Office Space reference analogy. Well played. But do you really think it costs all that much to get a decent middle reliever if you're a savvy team? Or to produce one from your farm system (because the alternative to Bowden isn't just acquiring a free agent; it's also plugging in another cheap guy from the farm who could produce what he can -- say, Dustin Richardson). And if you save yourself a million bucks, yeah that's valuable. But is it as valuable as a guy who has a 10% shot at turning into Jon Lester or Dustin Pedroia? I don't think so. I mean, I'm not advocating that Bowden be ranked 25th in the system or anything. But 5th overall seems, to me, to overvalue a MLB floor over a guy who could bust but has a high ceiling, and I don't get Sickels's logic. That's all. |
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raftsox |
#46 | |||
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Blumbergh,
You're assuming that you can correctly evaluate a player to have a 10% chance of being a top 5 player at any position, but you can't. You can draft a Jon Lester and Michael Bowden, both of whom coming out of high school were very similar and see neither make it past lowA. The spaghetti on the wall analogy is a little overused because a team with good scouts can decrease their attrition rate from something like 98% to 93%, but the analogy is still appropriate. For every Jon Lester you get 100 Kris Johnsons, and for every Dustin Pedroia you get 200 Jeff Natales. Of course every team tries to hedge their bets and draft as many superstar potential players as possible, but for every single one of these players there's no guarantee that they'll amount to anything. I hate to continue this argument, but you keep bringing up replacing Michael Bowden with Dustin Richardson. I get it, you're saying that one guy is replaceable with the other, but they're both from the same system with the same skillset for the same low cost. That's actually valuable, a GM doesn't need to trade or sign a guy who will cost more yet yeild the same or less production. To save a little frustration on everyone's part, would you please rank your top 10 or 15 so that we understand just how much you value each of these high ceiling prospects. I'm expecting to see guys like Renfroe, Britton, Middlebrooks, Almanzar, Tejeda, et al ahead of the higher floor/lower ceiling guys like Richardson and Bowden.
I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head.
... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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mrrightwing |
#47 | |||
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No question, developing a star player who will outperform his paycheck by millions is better than developing a middling talent who will outperform his paycheck
by a half-million. But it's not as simple as just saying "I am only going to draft and develop stars."
That would be like saying "I am going to be the next Bill Gates." Well, lots of guys want to be the next Bill Gates, but they end up working paycheck to paycheck like the rest of us. Lots of prospects get drafted with the hopes that they will be a great player. All have some less-than-zero probability of seeing that happen. But that is why the maxim is that the draft is an inexact science. Sometimes you take a guy because you think his ceiling is very high and they wind up being Jason Place, and sometimes you take a guy who you think, maybe if the stars align, he can be a MLB backup some day, and it turns out to be Mike Piazza. But if they don't all turn out the way you or they hoped, that is just life. The world needs worker bees, too. Not as much as it needs another Bill Gates, but worker bees aren't worthless either. And neither are underpriced middle relievers. |
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