Sickels' Top 20 in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Sickels' Top 20

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hletterhart	Sickels' Top 20		Lead	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 31 12/15/09 12:14 AM	Tags : None John Sickels' Top 20: Top 20 Prospects EDIT: Breaking this out into its own topic. Last Edited By: amfox1 12/15/09 11:44 AM. Edited 1 time.
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Sibby Sisti		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 361 12/15/09 12:25 AM	I'm surprised that Lin and Wagner only got honorable mention; Lin because of his tools and the fact he's about to compete at AA at age 21; Wagner, again for his defensive skills and his bat (hitting over .300 in Winter Ball).
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back2basix3593		#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 88 12/15/09 12:27 AM	Gotta love what he says about westy.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1736 12/15/09 12:37 AM Veteran Member	Sibby Sisti wrote: I'm surprised that Lin and Wagner only got honorable mention; Lin because of his tools and the fact he's about to compete at AA at age 21; Wagner, again for his defensive skills and his bat (hitting over .300 in Winter Ball). I think it just reflects the fact that this system is crazy stupid deep in C+ prospects. "Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez
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Norm in Oregon		#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1026 12/15/09 1:30 AM Veteran Member	FenwayTheHardWay wrote: Sibby Sisti wrote: I'm surprised that Lin and Wagner only got honorable mention; Lin because of his tools and the fact he's about to compete at AA at age 21; Wagner, again for his defensive skills and his bat (hitting over .300 in Winter Ball). I think it just reflects the fact that this system is crazy stupid deep in C+ prospects. I was going to mention that. Take CF as a for example. The system is ridiculously deep, with four, perhaps five, guys who in all likelihood will make the majors, in one form or another. And the feeling is that at least a few of them such as Reddick, Lin and Fuentes, can stick if that's where they're wanted. I'd guess it makes it tough on evaluators like Sickels. You'd be looking around nervously to see if anyone's peeking over your shoulder if you listed five prospects for the same position in your top 20. That's before you get to the pitchers, catchers, or infielders. That's why I take the ratings with a grain of salt. Just look at pasts lists for many examples of how wrong evaluators can be. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. ~ Frederick Douglass
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amfox1		#5	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6419 12/15/09 11:55 AM Senior Forum Moderator	I edited Sickels' responses: 1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+ 2) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+ 3) Ryan Kalish, OF, Grade B 4) Josh Reddick, OF, Grade B 5) Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B Max Ramirez would be somewhere in the B- range. Sickels noted that Westmoreland and Kelly are both potential Grade A/A- prospects. Discuss. EDIT: I cut back the Sickels disclosure - go to his website for the full summary. Last Edited By: amfox1 12/15/09 12:16 PM. Edited 1 time.
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amfox1		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6420 12/15/09 11:56 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Interesting that Doubront and Lin only got C grades from Sickels. SP ranking (Sickels ranking/grade) [BP ranking/stars] 1. Kelly (2/B+) [2/***] 2. Westmoreland (1/B+) [1/*] 3. Kalish (3/B) [4/] 4. Reddick (4/B) [3/] 5. Anderson (8/B-) [9/] 6. Rizzo (7/B-) [5/] 7. Tazawa (6/B-) [7/] 8. Iglesias (11/C+) [6/] 9. Pimentel (10/B-) [14/NR] 10. Bowden (5/B) [8/] 11. Exposito (13/C+) [NR] 12. Lin (NR/C) [15/NR] 13. Doubront (NR/C) [NR] 14. Navarro (18/C+) [NR] 15. Fuentes (9/B-) [10/] NR. Gibson (12/C+) [11/*] NR. Renfroe (14/C+) [12/NR] NR. Wilson (15/C+) [13/NR] BA's top 10 list is due December 22. Last Edited By: amfox1 12/15/09 12:08 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Cem21		#7	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2518 12/15/09 12:09 PM Chris Mellen Director of Scouting SoxProspects.com	I wouldn't have rated Renfroe ahead of Lin and Doubront. He's got some nice tools and potential to hit for power down the line, but after seeing the video of his swing after he was drafted, he looks like a player entering the system that is going to have to make some adjustments with his mechanics and will be targeted to be worked with in XST. I see professional pitching eating him up a bit to start his career. Similar to Middlebrooks in his first ST and initial run with Lowell. Renfroe has the "high school pull swing" where he tries to yank everything. Doubront and Lin, to me, slide in front of Renfroe with C+ grades. Last Edited By: Cem21 12/15/09 12:12 PM. Edited 1 time.
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BLumbergh		#8	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 387 12/15/09 12:10 PM Veteran Member	I think Kevin Goldstein also referred to Doubrotn as essentially a fungible, back-end lefty so this might not be that surprising. And Sickels's analysis is always pretty stats heavy and Lin's year end line isn't so impressive. He seems like a prime person for Sickels to underrate. I can't say I understand the continued love for Michael Bowden. Really, what's his ceiling at this point?
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Norm in Oregon		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1029 12/15/09 12:23 PM Veteran Member	Can you say damn near arbitrary? David Renfroe is at C+ and he may be but Sickels "need(s) more data". Again, this stuff is largely guess work, useful but only to a point. From what I gather, he spends a lot of time watching games and that's a very good thing for an evaluator. But his rankings have always had a flavor-of-the-month feel to them also. I'd suggest this site, SoxProspects, with it's constantly evolving take on players, and its willingness to follow them closely through their minor league careers is at least as good a place to get a take on guys like Doubront and Lin. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. ~ Frederick Douglass
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Curll84		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 614 12/15/09 12:45 PM	Sickie does a good job with his rankings. They don't have to be spot on, they are, after all, HIS rankings and not a consensus of several people ala SP and even BA with some of its rankings. He finds some good sleepers, misses on some prospects. All the lists do. For one guy, he does a lot of work and research for the top 20+ of each club. I would rank Stolmy higher, but agree with his Kalish/Reddick assessment. My 5-10 looks like: Lars Stolmy Bowden Tazawa Iglesias Fuentes
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ancientsoxfogey		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4429 12/15/09 12:46 PM Veteran Member	And don't underestimate the usefulness of the breadth of people who contribute here. Lots of different perspectives on the merits of prospects can combine to provide a richly thorough evaluation of a prospect's capabilities that a single evaluator, no matter how qualified, can't duplicate. His/her judgmental biases will always rule in rating players. That's not a criticism of these people, it's merely a fact that recognizes human nature - and celebrates diversity.
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Jrou8809		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 56 12/15/09 1:06 PM	I think he's right on... we have a ton of high ceiling toolsy players who haven't developed skills yet. The one's that have are higher are rated higher. Westy is a stud.
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amfox1		#13	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6422 12/15/09 1:18 PM Senior Forum Moderator	What you are seeing coming out are consensus tiers of prospects, with a few outliers. Tier 1 - Westmoreland/Kelly Tier 2 - Kalish/Reddick Tier 3 - Tazawa/Bowden/Anderson/Rizzo/Iglesias/Pimentel (add in Ramirez, if obtained) Tier 4 - Exposito/Renfroe/Fuentes/Gibson/Wilson Sickels and Goldstein think that SP overvalues Doubront, Lin and Navarro, which is not surprising as both are more focused on the shiny new toys. Most of us believe that Lin and Navarro are undervalued and that people are putting too much emphasis on injury-marred seasons. On Doubront, there is a genuine disagreement as to whether Doubront will show more projectability.
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Norm in Oregon		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1030 12/15/09 1:32 PM Veteran Member	amfox1 wrote: What you are seeing coming out are consensus tiers of prospects, with a few outliers. Tier 1 - Westmoreland/Kelly Tier 2 - Kalish/Reddick Tier 3 - Tazawa/Bowden/Anderson/Rizzo/Iglesias/Pimentel (add in Ramirez, if obtained) Tier 4 - Exposito/Renfroe/Fuentes/Gibson/Wilson Sickels and Goldstein think that SP overvalues Doubront, Lin and Navarro, which is not surprising as both are more focused on the shiny new toys. Most of us believe that Lin and Navarro are undervalued and that people are putting too much emphasis on injury-marred seasons. On Doubront, there is a genuine disagreement as to whether Doubront will show more projectability. Great synopsis. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. ~ Frederick Douglass
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raftsox		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1475 12/15/09 1:39 PM	amfox1 wrote: On Doubront, there is a genuine disagreement as to whether Doubront will show more projectability. Coming in to the 2009 season I was shocked that he was protected from the Rule 5 draft given his lack of anything even above average, but he thoroughly proved me wrong. At this point, I can only assume he'll continue to add velocity and/or refine his offspeed pitches to the point that he'll be a left handed Michael Bowden. Blumbergh, Bowden is still geniunely appreciated because he's almost guaranteed to have a passable Major League career. Can you honestly say that about anyone else in the organization? If you answer yes, you're putting way too much projection into your analysis. I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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804Sox		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 994 12/15/09 1:52 PM	raftsox wrote: Blumbergh, Bowden is still geniunely appreciated because he's almost guaranteed to have a passable Major League career. Can you honestly say that about anyone else in the organization? If you answer yes, you're putting way too much projection into your analysis. I think you could say the same about Tazawa and Reddick (that they will have some sort of major league career), but your point stands that Bowden's value is tied to the fact that his floor is so high. He is, at the present, a marginal MLB starting pitcher with a chance to solidify himself as a back-of-the-rotation or even mid-rotation starter with improvement, and at worst will be able to give you innings at the major league level.
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badfishnbc		#17	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 13 12/15/09 2:47 PM	Can anyone give some historical perspective as to how former prospects have rated by JS? I'm especially curious if anyone ever snuck into the A-/A range...
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amfox1		#18	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6424 12/15/09 2:49 PM Senior Forum Moderator	badfishnbc wrote: Can anyone give some historical perspective as to how former prospects have rated by JS? I'm especially curious if anyone ever snuck into the A-/A range... Yes. Plenty. He is loathe to give A grades to people at the low end of a major league system. I have seen 11 teams for 2010 reviewed by Sickels so far and five A grades: A Posey, Strasburg, Matusz, Heyward A- Bumgarner For 2009, Sickels gave 21 A grades: A (4) Price, Bumgarner, Wieters, Feliz A- (17) Fowler, Cahill, B.Anderson, Posey, Maybin, Morrison, Porcello, Smoak, Andrus, Alvarez, Moustakas, Hosmer, L.Anderson, Snider, Rasmus, Wallace, Heyward Last Edited By: amfox1 12/15/09 3:00 PM. Edited 2 times.
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AMarshal2		#19	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9111 12/15/09 3:01 PM	He even gave Jed Lowrie an A- grade at one point. aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep. tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
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Norm in Oregon		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1031 12/15/09 3:07 PM Veteran Member	AMarshal2 wrote: He even gave Jed Lowrie an A- grade at one point. Given the tantalizing looks from a healthy Lowrie, that assessment's right-on in my book. There is, however, always the injury bugaboo waiting to fell otherwise very good players. I'm just hoping he can get past it all. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. ~ Frederick Douglass
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