Nice chart, Y. And a chart which makes an implicit argument why the Sox should make "at least a reasonable" effort to win the Division. This irrational fear of Verlander is silly. Otherwise, Detroit is a vastly inferior team to LAA - they have been all season, and they have been recently. The Angels score more than a run a game better than Detroit. They've stolen twice as many bases as the Tigers, and you can bet that if they get the chance they would try to run the Sox out of the stadium in an ALDS. They have a much deeper lineup, and they have good enough pitching to have an expectation of keeping the Sox at least somewhat in check.

Besides, what does it mean to not "go all out" anyway? First, I'm sure the Sox are going to go full bore until at least the WC is clinched. That probably means through the Yankee series anyway, and you know nobody is going to back off in that series under any circumstance. And after the Yankee series, we probably will know the final state of things for the Division anyway. If, say, we gain nothing or less than nothing on the Yankees in the upcoming series and don't sweep them over the weekend, then the Yankees will likely win the Division on their own no matter what we do, so we set ourselves up as best we can for the LAA series the final week. If we play poorly this week and Texas creeps back closer to contention, then we have to continue going at it full bore until the WC is sewed up, then [presumably] we back off the last few days.

The real issue is if, after the Yankee series is over, we are 0, 1 or 2 back in the loss column. What do we do then? To think about this further, ask the question the other way: If the Yankees are 1 or 2 games up in the loss column after the weekend series, are they going to take it easy the last week because the Division win isn't all that important anyway, and they'd just as soon be the WC because they're afraid of Verlander?

I don't care about percentages, Y: If the Sox, say, somehow lose 3 of 4 in KC and get swept by the Yankees, then we are relying on Texas to do our work for us. Absolutely, that shouldn't happen, not the way the team is playing right now -- and my betting is that the Sox will play it completely straight to make as sure as they can that it doesn't, until the horse is in the barn, because ...... I bet that the Sox don't care about percentages either. The last week looks to be potentially the time to do the resting. Not before. And yes, I'd go with Lester over Beckett, for what that's worth. Say what you will about Jason Varitek as a player, he called Lester's continued ascension last year at this time.