Type A Free Agents (the pre-Draft Compensation Thread) in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Type A Free Agents (the pre-Draft Compensation Thread)

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amfox1	Type A Free Agents (the pre-Draft Compensation Thread)		Lead	[-]
Posts: 6154 09/03/09 12:00 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Tags : None Right now, the following players look like Type A free agents (list from mlbtraderumors.com) Bobby Abreu Jason Bay Josh Beckett* Rafael Betancourt Orlando Cabrera Johnny Damon Jermaine Dye* Scott Eyre Chone Figgins Troy Glaus Mike Gonzalez John Grabow Kevin Gregg Vladimir Guerrero Rich Harden LaTroy Hawkins Trevor Hoffman Matt Holliday Orlando Hudson John Lackey Cliff Lee* Felipe Lopez Victor Martinez* Bengie Molina Darren Oliver Magglio Ordonez* Andy Pettitte Manny Ramirez* Marco Scutaro Rafael Soriano Billy Wagner* Randy Wolf Jose Valverde * Team option Best guess is that Beckett, Lee and Martinez's options will be exercised and Cabrera cannot be offered arbitration as a Type A, under the terms of his contract. I will assume the same for Ramirez and Ordonez. Wagner's option cannot be exercised under the terms of his trade but he can be offered arbitration. That leaves us with 27 potential Type A free agents with the chance for draft pick compensation, if offered arbitration, including five Angels and two Red Sox (Bay, Wagner). Of course, several players on this list will not be offered arbitration, including Glaus. Discuss.
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raftsox		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1296 09/03/09 12:29 PM	I expect Dye's option to be picked up. Then only exception would be if he felt that he could net a multi-year deal. Pettitte re-signs or retires. Abreau and the Angles have both been reported to being open to discuss an extension. It seems likely. There's also a chance Vlad re-signs as their DH; pure speculation on my part. The Angels should run as hard as they can at Lackey, and I think they end up re-signing him 4 yrs, 56M. They will however happily collect their comp picks for Figgins and let Wood (hopefully) step in. As a general note there are quite a few overrated relievers who should collect a tidy sum this offseason: Gregg, Betancourt, Gonzalez, Soriano and Hoffman. Someone will overpay for Harden, Damon and Scutaro. (Not necessarily the same team.) Troy Glaus will be lucky to find a job. And the biggest surprise: Benjie Molina is a type A free agent!? I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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jsinger121		#2	[url]	[-]
Posts: 15371 09/03/09 12:52 PM Jonathan Singer Digital Correspondent SoxProspects.com	I cannot see any competent run organization giving a 34 year old Marco Scutaro a long term deal for good money. This is the first season in which he has OPS close to .800 (.799) with at least 500 at-bats. He has had 2 other seasons of .700 plus OPS but that was with 381 and 365 at-bats. Also consider the fact he will be 34 come this October and he is a major risk going forward. I'll think he is a guy that is likely to accept arbitration unless he finds a sucker team willing to give up a draft pick for him. Twitter: @Jonathan_Singer/@Soxprospects
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MaleNurse2010		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 488 09/03/09 12:58 PM	Raft if the Angels come in with an offer of 4 years at 56 mill, I would have no problem if the Red Sox added 10 million to that and a vesting option year.
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DCRi		#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1054 09/03/09 1:10 PM Veteran Member	That's a really unimpressive list. Free agency is not what it used to be. The only position player I would consider signing is Holliday and only if Bay goes elsewhere and the Sox get the picks for him. Even then, maybe not. He probably will resign with the Cardinals anyway.
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WillyCoPapi3		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3775 09/03/09 1:26 PM Veteran Member	I doubt the Cardinals end up re-signing Holliday. Most likely they're going to preserve their resources as much as possible to attempt to lock Pujols up long term. And when it comes to dealing with FAs the caliber of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, there's about a 0% chance the Red Sox take the draft picks into consideration. It's one thing to acquire a rental like Wagner with the knowledge that he could ultimately net some draft picks, but good organizations (which the Red Sox certainly are) don't really pay attention to draft compensation when dealing with possible long term commitments. I don't mean to single you out, but I've seen a bunch people mention something similar when talking about the Red Sox's future LFer. Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher. -FenwayTheHardWay
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Nexus		#6	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 143 09/03/09 1:30 PM	DCRi wrote: That's a really unimpressive list. Free agency is not what it used to be. The only position player I would consider signing is Holliday and only if Bay goes elsewhere and the Sox get the picks for him. Even then, maybe not. He probably will resign with the Cardinals anyway. No way. And anyone who points to Kyle Lohse resigning with his home team despite being a Boras client needs to look at his contract. He didn't exactly sign at a hometown discount. There are too many big market teams with needs in LF next year. Unless Leslee Holliday has little desire to shop all day, he's no different than Teixeira.
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Steve of Charlotte		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 433 09/03/09 1:57 PM	I for one was all for resigning Bay earlier, but after watching how streakie he is....I'm open to other avenues. I do like Holliday and think he would be perfect for us, BUT Boras will make the front office think long and hard about trying again after last winter. I really like that Holliday is a good left fielder and is a more consistent threat in the middle of the line-up. Bay is a nice plan B, but I'd prefer the younger (by one year) and more consistent Holliday. Thoughts? Any chance Henry and Theo try Boras again this quickly?
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raftsox		#8	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1297 09/03/09 2:06 PM	jsinger121 wrote: I cannot see any *competent* run organization giving a 34 year old Marco Scutaro a long term deal for good money. There are some GMs out there that I wouldn't consider competent. I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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JimRiceRocks		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1146 09/03/09 2:21 PM Veteran Member	WillyCoPapi3 wrote: I doubt the Cardinals end up re-signing Holliday. Most likely they're going to preserve their resources as much as possible to attempt to lock Pujols up long term. I thought one of the keys for Pujols (and he's likely to accept a home team discount if he's satisfied) is that the Cards get some protection for him in the lineup. He's good enough to carry a team, but he'll want some help. If they don't sign Holliday, or otherwise get some help for Pujols, he may be less likely sign without at least testing the FA waters. And we know that if he does, the Cards won't come close to MFY or Boston. "You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan "No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan
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WillyCoPapi3		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3777 09/03/09 2:53 PM Veteran Member	That may be true, but do you really see the Cardinals dishing out the kind of money and years that it would take to sign Holliday--a Boras client? I'd consider it highly unlikely he ends up back in St. Louis next season (especially when considering the Yankees will be in the market for a LF...). Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher. -FenwayTheHardWay
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JimRiceRocks		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1147 09/03/09 3:23 PM Veteran Member	Don't forget the Cards also have some significant money coming off the books this year - Glaus, Green, DeRosa come to mind off the top of my head. I'm not sure what state the Yanks will be in to sign a top $$ FA after splurging last year. I think they are being affected by this economy. The Cards would be having ongoing conversations with Pujols, too. They'll know what kind of financial flexibility they'll have with Holiday by knowing what kind of deal AP would accept if they sign Holiday. If they fail to sign Holiday (and don't make any other big splash), they are putting themselves in jeopardy regarding Pujols. In the NL, it shouldn't take much beyond a 1-2 punch of Pujols and some top talent to be in the running every year. Pujols will need to see some commitment to winning. "You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan "No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan
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ancientsoxfogey		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4206 09/03/09 3:25 PM Veteran Member	A lot of people have said that Bay and Holliday will be with the Yankees and Sox next year, and that seems to me like a reasonable scenario. It also seems that the two of them might play a game of signing chicken, with their agents trying to play them off against each other. My bet is that the Yankees go after Holliday, and what they go after they generally get. Maybe it's good planning on the Yankees' part, or maybe it's luck, but last year they needed starters and a 1B and the top 3 FA were exactly that. This year's FA class has the quality in LF, which is what the Yankees will need. And by next year's offseason the Yankees may be shopping for a new most-of-the-time catcher -- when Mauer might be going on the market (depending how he handles the Twins.)
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edwardcc		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 379 09/03/09 5:47 PM	ancientsoxfogey wrote: A lot of people have said that Bay and Holliday will be with the Yankees and Sox next year, and that seems to me like a reasonable scenario. It also seems that the two of them might play a game of signing chicken, with their agents trying to play them off against each other. My bet is that the Yankees go after Holliday, and what they go after they generally get. Maybe it's good planning on the Yankees' part, or maybe it's luck, but last year they needed starters and a 1B and the top 3 FA were exactly that. This year's FA class has the quality in LF, which is what the Yankees will need. And by next year's offseason the Yankees may be shopping for a new most-of-the-time catcher -- when Mauer might be going on the market (depending how he handles the Twins.) Not many big ones in 2011either, Halladay, Webb, Mauer, Cliff Lee, Crawford (and Victor Martinez) and a few decent relievers. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Yanks add Halladay, Mauer and Crawford in 2011 if they are still all available. The only players on the Type A list that interest me at all are Holliday, Bay, Figgins and Lackey. Not sure, I would drop a 1st round pick for Holliday when Bay wouldn't cost us one, but not sure I want Bay longterm. Also, hesitant to give Lackey a 4 or 5 year deal when he has been injured the last two years and is going to get paid like a number one, but is really a number 2-3 type guy. I like Figgins alot, but you get zero power with him and we already have Ellsbury. Plus, where do you play him on the Sox roster as currently constructed. He is primarily an on-base guy who steals bases and has played mostly 3B and 2B. Well, we have Lowell, Youks, Lowrie that can all play 3rd. Plus, Martinez, Youks and Kotchman that can play first and Pedroria at 2nd.
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WC Sox Fan		#14	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 24 09/03/09 7:00 PM	Not sure, I would drop a 1st round pick for Holliday when Bay wouldn't cost us one, but not sure I want Bay longterm. I believe that signing Holliday and letting Bay leave as a FA would actually GAIN a compensation draft pick. The Red Sox would lose their 1st rounder but gain a 1st rounder from the team who signs Bay, leaving them coming out ahead. So its actually advantageous to repetitively sign players short-term to net extra draft picks as long as the player remains a type-A free agent and signs with another team at the end of the year. "good organizations (which the Red Sox certainly are) don't really pay attention to draft compensation when dealing with possible long term commitments"?......... perhaps they value the pick over the lifetime of the contract, so 5 year contract vs one year contract you maybe consider your pick 1/5 as valuable per year because the value is spread out. But not valuing any commodity in baseball in any situation is just bad business in my opinion. Last Edited By: WC Sox Fan 09/03/09 7:19 PM. Edited 1 time.
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soxcentral		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1013 09/03/09 7:34 PM Veteran Member	WC Sox Fan wrote: Not sure, I would drop a 1st round pick for Holliday when Bay wouldn't cost us one, but not sure I want Bay longterm. I believe that signing Holliday and letting Bay leave as a FA would actually GAIN a compensation draft pick. The Red Sox would lose their 1st rounder but gain a 1st rounder from the team who signs Bay, leaving them coming out ahead. So its actually advantageous to repetitively sign players short-term to net extra draft picks as long as the player remains a type-A free agent and signs with another team at the end of the year. "good organizations (which the Red Sox certainly are) don't really pay attention to draft compensation when dealing with possible long term commitments"?......... perhaps they value the pick over the lifetime of the contract, so 5 year contract vs one year contract you maybe consider your pick 1/5 as valuable per year because the value is spread out. But not valuing any commodity in baseball in any situation is just bad business in my opinion. Right, I believe this was the case when we let go of Orlando Cabrera and picked up Edgar Renteria...although that didn't really work out so well.
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bighead		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 71 09/03/09 8:02 PM	I really hope that the Sox aren't going after Holliday. Sure he can play a better LF but is that worth all of the extra $$ and years that Boras will be demanding? I don't think he did much in terms of dispelling the home/away splits he had during his Colorado years. Player AB BA OBP SLG R HR RBI SB Holliday, Matt LF 482 0.3112 0.3943 0.5207 80 20 90 14 Bay, Jason LF 439 0.2574 0.3827 0.5330 85 30 94 12 Drew, J.D. RF 388 0.2655 0.3836 0.4948 72 19 56 2 Drew's numbers included to remind you that Holliday is a Boras client...
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SoxSail		#17	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 173 09/03/09 8:58 PM	bighead wrote: I really hope that the Sox aren't going after Holliday. Sure he can play a better LF but is that worth all of the extra $$ and years that Boras will be demanding? I don't think he did much in terms of dispelling the home/away splits he had during his Colorado years. It's not really the Boras factor as much as it is the MFY factor. At 4+ years, I'd rather have Holliday, even at a 15% steeper price, both because he is younger, and because his skill set ages well. However, the years and % might climb drastically if the Yanks decide they perfer Holliday over Bay. The lack of development for Lars and Carter, as well as the inconsistency from Ortiz might make a Bay signing more likely/easy to digest. While at one point it looked like we might have a glut of DH's if we kept Bay, it now looks like that spot will open up after next year (or earlier if they blow off Ortiz or he sucks). This would coincide well with the ETA of some of our top OF prospects (Reddick, Kalish, Bates? Place? Lars? Daeges?). It means that the Sox can sign him, while maintaining flexibility, something they value highly. P.S. BigHead, have you seen his numbers since he was traded???
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edwardcc		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 380 09/03/09 9:52 PM	Forgot about the supp pick plus the 1st rounder for losing Bay, if we sign either it would seem the smart thing to sign Holliday unless the dollars and years are crazy. The only other factor would be that Bay is somewhat of a known quantity in Boston wheras Holliday has yet to show he can hit consistently in the AL. Holliday has hit well in Boston albeit in a very SSS.
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back2basix3593		#19	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 30 09/03/09 10:16 PM	not sure which direction i would go on this one ,but 2011 looks like it's the red sox big year for free agents
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DCRi		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1056 09/03/09 11:57 PM Veteran Member	To clarify my earlier post.... I did not mean that the Sox would, or should, forego signing Holliday or Bay because of the draft picks. I agree that for the Sox that is not a big deal in these cases. The Sox obviously need a very good hitting LF. I am not sure it should be either Bay or Holliday. I think there is a reasonable chance the Sox will make a serious attempt to resign Bay and may succeed, depending on what the Yankees do. I am not a great enthusiast of signing big name free agents to big long-term contracts, and it has nothing to do with draft picks. I don't think the Sox are, either. A few work out, but most do not. I think it is more likely the Sox will make between one and three very big trades in the off-season than it is that they will sign a big name free agent. I think they are after an elite pitcher, an OF and either a 3B or a 1B. Yes, the Yankees will go after Bay and Holliday. However, Holliday has hit much better for the Cardinals than he did for Oakland so he may think very carefully before returning to the AL. I have no idea how much of a mercenary he is. If he goes for top dollar, rather than where the best place for him to play is, then he may well go to the Yankees. St. Louis would be a better place for him, however. The Cardinals may try hard to keep him as protection for their big bopper. Maybe they will not be able to afford him. That probably would be shame for both.
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