Should Kelly start 2010 in AA?

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qutennis5	Should Kelly start 2010 in AA?		Lead	[-]
Rookie Posts: 27 08/19/09 3:39 PM	Tags : None amfox1 wrote: Yes, as a pitcher. That is both my personal projection and the "official" site projection (see 2010 Projected Rosters under the Player Index pulldown box above). I know I'm going to get railed for saying this, but Kelly is entering not-often-seen overratedness. Yes, his pitching stats were great, but they were in a very small SS at each level in 2009, where hitters didn't really get a chance to see him more than once (ie multiple games, not multiple at bats within a game) and get used to him. I don't think Kelly deserves to be the #1 rated prospect in a deep farm system after 100ip spread amongst 2 levels. I think it's unfair to those who've performed well at higher levels and proven a lot more at the minor league level and to expect him to open in AA after < 100ip in the minors shows people are way too high on someone who has yet to really prove anything.
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raftsox		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1222 08/19/09 4:21 PM	Actually Kelly did pitch multiple games against multiple teams. Oddly he pitched better the second time facing a team than he did the first. I tried to make the same argument you did, but when I looked it up I realized I was wrong (several months ago). Given the oddities of his particular situation, I cannot find a website that's retained game logs for him. Sure, I could look up each day he pitched and search via date on milb.com, but since I don't know what days he pitched there would be a lot of searching to do. Edit: I'm willing to do the leg work if someone can provide the dates he pitched on. I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2 Last Edited By: raftsox 08/19/09 4:40 PM. Edited 1 time.
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templeUsox		#2	[url]	[-]
Posts: 14682 08/19/09 4:42 PM Ian Northeast & Amateur Scout SoxProspects.com	Yes.
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jsinger121		#3	[url]	[-]
Posts: 15189 08/19/09 4:53 PM Jonathan Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	templeUsox wrote: Yes. Seconded. And as a fulltime pitcher since that is what is going to get him to the big leagues quicker. I'll be there, watching the Sox representation of mid-rotation starters. -TheGoldenGreek33 on Casey Kelly
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Cem21		#4	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2345 08/19/09 5:01 PM Chris Mellen Director of Scouting SoxProspects.com	I personally think he'll begin the season with Salem and if everything goes smooth after 5 starts or so, we'll see him in Portland. That is just my feeling at the moment. It wouldn't bother me if he started in Portland though as I can bundle up for trips in April to see him.
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ancientsoxfogey		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4148 08/19/09 6:54 PM Veteran Member	Cem brings up what may be the critical point here: The Sox may well want to have their prize prospect avoid the April weather in Portland. And really, this feels rather pointless to me. What does it really matter if Kelly starts in Salem next year for a half-dozen starts or so, rather than in Portland? It isn't as if he'd start in Salem, run rampant over the league, and be kept there all year. His innings progression could very well retard his progress more than the challenges of minor league baseball, so what's the rush? And if he started at Salem and DIDN'T dominate for some unknown reason, then he could stay there longer and get things sorted out. Of course, given the usual progression of prospects, it's quite a bit more likely that Kelly would run into difficulties in AA than in A+. To me, it seems that having him start in Portland next year only creates the potential for problems, with no real benefits, given that Kelly shouldn't be in a major league rotation until 2012 at the earliest, and even then his innings may have to be managed. As a last thought, my guess would be that Kelly would be another of those pitchers whose biggest challenge in the minors will be the leap to AAA, not AA.
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soxphd		#6	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 86 08/19/09 6:55 PM	I think the chances are 50/50 of him going to either place. If he goes to Salem, its just to get on a roll before heading north. That said, he really doesn't have anything to prove at that level. If he struggles a bit out of the gate in Portland, maybe its a good learning experience to see how he deals with adversity. Either way, I'm excited to see him back on the mound.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2871 08/19/09 7:01 PM Veteran Member	He didn't even throw 50 innings in Salem. IMO, why would you have him make the biggest jump in the minor leagues, and make him pitch in shitty weather while he's at it? Keep him in Salem until Mid-May and evaluate him then. Never mind my overall general opinion of Kelly's talent level, that just wouldn't make sense at any rate. OTOH, throw him in the EL. Let him struggle. Let him experience failure. It will either be a great learning experience, or he'll be Daniel Bard circa 2007 but never bounce back. Last Edited By: TheGoldenGreek33 08/19/09 7:13 PM. Edited 1 time.
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basestealer21		#8	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 31 08/19/09 7:09 PM	The guy has some serious mental makeup. Challenge him!
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qutennis5		#9	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 28 08/19/09 7:10 PM	soxphd wrote: I think the chances are 50/50 of him going to either place. If he goes to Salem, its just to get on a roll before heading north. That said, he really doesn't have anything to prove at that level. If he struggles a bit out of the gate in Portland, maybe its a good learning experience to see how he deals with adversity. Either way, I'm excited to see him back on the mound. That's the thing. I wouldnt say someone has nothing else to prove at a given level when you have < 50ip there. Far too small a sample size to say he should be in Portland, let alone be the #1 prospect ahead of more accomplished players like Reddick, Lars, Bowden, etc.
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amfox1		#10	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6111 08/19/09 7:11 PM Adam Senior Moderator SoxProspects Forum	TheGoldenGreek33 wrote: He didn't even throw 50 innings in Salem. IMO, why would you have him make the biggest jump in the minor leagues, and make him pitch in shitty weather while he's at it? Keep him in Salem until Mid-May and evaluate him then. Never mind my overall general opinion of Kelly's talent level, that just wouldn't make sense at any rate. The weather point is one that actually could flow in favor of Portland. He's going to be on a 120-130 inning limit. So what if games are cancelled in April - that just means he'll pitch later into the year, making it impossible for him to be a dual-position player. And pitching in bad weather in April will help him get ready to pitch in Boston in May. Don't coddle the kid if he's ready. My view is that you aggressively promote kids starting out until they hit a challenge. Despite 1-2 subpar starts in Salem, Kelly has not hit his level yet. Further, most of the better players in the Carolina League Kelly faced in May/June will be in AA next year. Therefore, if he stays in Salem, he will be facing the same kids he faced in Greenville and it won't be a challenge for him.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2874 08/19/09 7:16 PM Veteran Member	amfox1 wrote: Don't coddle the kid if he's ready. Fantastic point. I hadn't thought of that. As long as he's on a short leash, I'm fine with him starting 2010 in the EL. basestealer21 wrote: The guy has some serious mental makeup. What evidence supports this?
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MaleNurse2010		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 459 08/19/09 7:32 PM	Whereever Kelly will work on his secondary pitches more often is the place for him to be. Is that in the EL where he will need a better repitoire to be a quality pitcher there, or is it in Salem where he will dominate and just work on his change and curve like Bowden did with his slider? IMO it's in the EL.
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soxphd		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 87 08/19/09 7:33 PM	qutennis5 wrote: soxphd wrote: I think the chances are 50/50 of him going to either place. If he goes to Salem, its just to get on a roll before heading north. That said, he really doesn't have anything to prove at that level. If he struggles a bit out of the gate in Portland, maybe its a good learning experience to see how he deals with adversity. Either way, I'm excited to see him back on the mound. That's the thing. I wouldnt say someone has nothing else to prove at a given level when you have < 50ip there. Far too small a sample size to say he should be in Portland, let alone be the #1 prospect ahead of more accomplished players like Reddick, Lars, Bowden, etc. Its a fair point, but from the reports I read, he was dominating. Plus, he really doesn't think he's being challenged based upon his quote in the Yahoo column: "He was surprised by everyone's reaction to it. His brother [Chris, a minor league pitcher] would text him and say, 'It's not that easy.' Casey would text him back and say, 'Yes it is. I don't understand why it's so hard for everyone else.' (http://sports.yahoo.com/m...prov=yhoo&type=lgns) Of course the Sox don't promote based upon players feeling about how difficult the competition is, but its something to consider. I apologize for not getting the quote from Yahoo into a proper box, I'm still trying to figure it all out.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2876 08/19/09 7:45 PM Veteran Member	That exact quote is what makes me question his make-up. I really want to see how he handles failure.
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soxfreak13		#15	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 34 08/19/09 7:45 PM	Yeah, you see it all the time in baseball where players who made a jump to the next level get sent down the the previous level to start a season probably so that if they do struggle out of the gate they won't take as much of a hit in their confidence after being sent down since they're already "down", and if they light it up they can always be brought up after a few weeks.
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soxfreak13		#16	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 35 08/19/09 7:53 PM	I'm asking a serious question here and not being a wise-ass so don't bite my head off, but how many of you have been up to Portland in April. I live 25 minutes from Hadlock field and there are still remnants of snowstorms from April sitting in parking lots in june. It is a lot colder than Boston for a lot longer, especially since Hadlock field is a lot closer to the coast than Fenway Park is. It's bone chilling. Edit: I forgot to mention I lived in Boston as well for ten years so I'm not biased.
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soxphd		#17	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 88 08/19/09 7:59 PM	soxfreak13 wrote: It's bone chilling. Yeah, it can be pretty brutal. Is there an increased injury risk when pitching in that kind of cold? If there isn't, then you might as well expose him and others to what playing in Boston will be like (assuming you think he's ready for the eastern league).
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TheGoldenGreek33		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2877 08/19/09 8:06 PM Veteran Member	It is a fact that it is tougher on one's arm to pitch in cold weather. The muscles of the arm need heat to expand (stretch), allowing the muscle to work appropriately. This is why pitchers put on a coat in the dugout (even during June/July) and don't put on an ice pack until after the game.
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templeUsox		#19	[url]	[-]
Posts: 14686 08/19/09 8:09 PM Ian Northeast & Amateur Scout SoxProspects.com	He'll probably be in triple-A by June.
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Arquimedez Bozo		#20	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8208 08/19/09 10:17 PM Chris Hatfield Senior Columnist & Editor SoxProspects.com	qutennis5 wrote: Yes, his pitching stats were great, but they were in a very small SS at each level in 2009, where hitters didn't really get a chance to see him more than once (ie multiple games, not multiple at bats within a game) and get used to him. Kelly's opponents by # of times faced: SAL Greensboro - 2 Savannah - 2 Augusta - 2 Kannapolis - 1 Charleston - 1 Rome - 1 CarLg Frederick - 2 Kinston - 2 Wilmington - 1 Potomac - 1 Myrtle Beach - 1 Winston-Salem - 1 That said, I'd like to submit the following: 4/9: C Federowicz, 1B Rizzo, 2B Dent, SS Tejeda, 3B Almanzar, LF Mailman, CF Hissey, RF Dening, DH Lavarnway 8/18: C Weeden, 1B Keowen, 2B Dent, SS Kelly, 3B Middlebrooks, LF Hissey, CF Hazelbaker, RF Wilkerson, DH Lavarnway That, of course, is Greenville's starting lineup on the dates listed. You'll notice three of nine players are in both lineups. While there's certainly something to be said for your point, there's also a point to be made that roster structure in the lower minors is quite volatile, enough so that A-ball playoff formats are structured with that in mind (the existence of first-half and second-half champs of a division exists because teams can change almost entirely over the course of a year). I'm curious, do you think this site is overrating him, or that he's overrated in general? If it's the former, I'd like to know what you think about his being included in the 26-50 overall prospects on BA's midseason list. "they should go to soxprospect so that BOZO THE CLOWN and the rest of THE WANTS TO BE will give you some information" - A SoxProspects.com Legend "Most people in my country say who the f*ck is dusty Brown and Who are the Pawsox you freak and what does hit 270 mean" - LondonSox
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Should Kelly start 2010 in AA?

Should Kelly start 2010 in AA?