Arquimedez Bozo wrote:
I like it. My only main point of contention would be Portice repeating Salem despite a 4.47 K/BB and 9.73 K/9 in addition to the rest of his line being solid. I'd put Lawson in the bullpen/extended/paper move to make room for Portice. That also solves your Salem logjam (a little at least).
Personally, I also see Johnson headed to the bullpen, but really that could go either way.
JimRiceRocks wrote:
Portice over Price? There's not room for all of them for sure, but Fife and Weiland to Portland without Price is interesting. I think Price should be in the mix, but he'll need to show lots of improvement in the 2nd half against A+ hitters.
It is a valid point and one that I considered strongly (and one where I may ultimately be proved wrong). Here's my thought process. First, let me say that I like Portice quite a bit and that it was a difficult decision leaving him in Salem and keeping Lawson in the rotation. Second, I ultimately view Lawson as a reliever or as nothing if he cannot get his control issues squared away. My sense, though, is that the organization sees potential in him and is using the starter slot for two reasons - one, to give him more pitches to work through his control issues and, two, because his stuff does not deteriorate with extended outings. Also, my sense is that the organization will want to have at least one repeater at a level to help the other starters assimilate to life at that level. Therefore, I chose Lawson to stay in the Portland rotation. I can absolutely see the counterargument for Portice over Lawson and, if I am right, I would expect Portice to be the first callup to Portland.
As to the other starters, I am assuming:
(1) Hagadone remains a starter and is not fast-tracked as a reliever. I believe because of age and stuff that he will be double-jumped to AA.
(2) Fife gets moved up to Salem this summer and has no issues adjusting. He belongs there now.
(3) Weiland continues to progress in his development - he looks like he has made the requisite adjustments in Salem after a tough start.
(4) Kelly commits to pitching and the organization sees what everyone has seen - that Kelly is not being challenged at Salem (of course, I was honored to see his worst outing of the year)
As for Price, he is a guy that may need more time to make adjustments because he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher right now. For that reason, unless he is fast-tracked to the bullpen, I would not look to rush Price to Portland. His stuff arguably will ultimately play better than Weiland in the rotation but he needs more development time for a third pitch - he's getting hit hard in Salem.
Finally, I think the organization will give Johnson a long leash on being a starter. Certainly, he should remain in the rotation to begin next year. If the Red Sox seek to stash a AAAA starter in Pawtucket, I could see Mills staying in Portland or getting moved to a swingman role before I see Johnson going to the bullpen. They can always move him in the middle of the year, if necessary. Note that I would expect Jones and Richardson to already be in the Pawtucket bullpen, so there will be no rush to add a lefty to that bullpen.
Obviously, this assumes no injuries. As we have seen, there could be a number of injuries which cause players to be shifted (hence, I have six starters in Greenville and Salem).
One thing you can see is the incredible depth. There are legitimately 3-4 prospects at each of the top four minor league levels.
AAA - Two supp picks and two international bonus babies (one of whom got mid-1st round money)
AA - A 1st rounder, a supp pick and two 3rd round picks
A+ - A supp pick (plus a supp pick in the bullpen), a 3rd round pick and a international bargain
A - A 2nd round pick and two high bonus late round picks
