RedSox0407Champs wrote:

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pedroiayouk1520 wrote:

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RedSox0407Champs wrote:

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soxfan13 wrote:

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I am crossing my fingers for Garza. If we get Garza, we win the AL East. Oswalt, Jackson, Floyd, and Garza the last 3 years

Name	Team	IP	BB%	K%	GB%	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP- ▾	SIERA	vFA (pfx)	WAR
Gavin Floyd	White Sox	574	6.80%	19.40%	46.00%	9.70%	69.30%	0.296	96	85	88	3.78	91.8	12.4
Roy Oswalt	- - -	532	5.90%	19.40%	44.70%	8.50%	74.80%	0.287	87	87	90	3.73	92.6	10.2
Matt Garza	- - -	605.2	8.00%	21.00%	40.40%	9.50%	73.40%	0.283	92	95	93	3.85	93.3	9.7
EdwinJackson	- - -	623	7.90%	18.50%	44.00%	9.60%	73.30%	0.307	93	92	95	4.06	94.5	11.2

C'mon.  You're fantasizing.  The Sox aren't getting Matt Garza from the Cubs.  If they're very lucky, they'll get a top ten prospect from the Cubs.

But if you want to keep fantasizing, add Castro to the mix. 

  

I don't see why we would be lucky to get a top-10 prospect back for Theo.  Lou Pineilla was traded for an all-star OF.  Ozzie Guillen was just traded for 2 of the Marlins' top 5 prospects.  Those are two mediocre managers.  Theo has been ranked by his peers as the #1 executive in the game. 

Another angle I've been taking is to compare it to the postings of Matsuzaka and Darvish.  Both players had 1 year left on their contracts in Japan.  Their team was essentially willing to let them go for significant compensation.  In both postings, the team received compensation that was just about the same amount as the player's contract.  Matsuzaka: $51M posting and $52M contract.  Darvish: $52M posting and $60M contract.  We just let Theo go and he signed on for $18.5M.  Maybe we should be compensated for Theo's market value ($18.5M). 

Plus, if Selig lets the Cubs get away with stealing Theo for practically nothing, then all executives in the game are gonna start walking out of their contracts and teams will be raiding each other left and right.  I think Selig will set precedent to prevent furthur raiding.  However, he will probably want do this while minimizing the future effect of the Cubs (he wants them to be relevant again).  Hmm, how can the Sox be significantly helped out in a way that wouldn't significantly hurt the future of the Cubs?  

And the Expos got nothing from the Sox for Dan Duquette.  The Twins got little for Andy McPhail, who had two championships, too, leaving.

Are you implying that the Sox could expect to receive Garza or Castro as soxfan13 wrote?  I'm not going to hold my breath on that one.  If Selig does indeed rule "in favor" of the Sox, maybe the Sox will wind up with Trey McNutt, or somebody in the Cubs top 10, not that the Cubs are exactly loaded with prospects, but when I read about the wishcasting for Garza or Castro it makes my eyes roll.  It sounds too much like wishful thinking.

From what it sounded like, the Sox would have been cool with McNutt as compensation.  Maybe that's how it'll wind up, but expecting an all-star...and I knew you threw out Randy Winn - he was a serviceable player, but hardly the impact value of a Garza or a Castro.  And it would be unprecedented as far as I know, for a GM, to command much more than a top 10 prospect.  There hasn't been a GM before who commanded such a payment.