Just a quick observation, but Pineda has a very similar arsenal to Daniel Bard (at least in terms of WHAT he throws). Pineda threw 62.2% fastballs, 31.5% sliders, and 6.3% changeups. Bard on the other hand threw 67.9% fastballs, 24.7% sliders, and 7.4% changeups. (Per fangraphs).
Looking at it a little further, the starting pitchers that were most similar to Bard in pitch distribution were Michael Pineda, Alexi Ogando, Gio Gonzalez (curve rather than slider), Bartolo Colon (more fastballs), Charlie Morton, and Brandon Morrow. All of these guys threw 62%+ fastballs and less than 8% changeups while relying on a three pitch mix (Morrow added an occasional curve). These pitchers averaged a 3.80 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, and 3.2 fWAR. In fact, there really wasn't much of a range in production. All of them other than Morton were between a 2.9 fWAR and a 3.6 fWAR. Morton, who was a clear exception due to his reliance on inducing groundballs had a respectable 2.2 fWAR. I find it fairly remarkable how concentrated the performance of these guys is. I think those numbers are a fair over/under for what we can get from Bard as a starter.
The kicker is that outside of Morton, Bard has by far the highest GB% of this group (52.7%). Bard also had an average fastball velocity more than 2 mph higher than any of these guys. This will most likely decline as he moves to a starter, but it should still be elite. Ogando for reference lost 1.2 mph on his fastball when he moved to the rotation.
In terms of more subjective evidence, Bard WANTS to start. He's openly talked about wanting it. On top of that we've had front office personel come out and testify about him having a strong makeup and the right character to make this transition. The innings will clearly be a concern, but he wouldn't be the first pitcher to transition form a relief pitcher to a starter. It is a move that can work.
I also think the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey speak volumes about the Red Sox commitment to Bard's transition to the rotation.
So what will this year hold for Bard? Does he make it out of spring training as a starter? If so, what kind of production can we expect from him?
Looking at it a little further, the starting pitchers that were most similar to Bard in pitch distribution were Michael Pineda, Alexi Ogando, Gio Gonzalez (curve rather than slider), Bartolo Colon (more fastballs), Charlie Morton, and Brandon Morrow. All of these guys threw 62%+ fastballs and less than 8% changeups while relying on a three pitch mix (Morrow added an occasional curve). These pitchers averaged a 3.80 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, and 3.2 fWAR. In fact, there really wasn't much of a range in production. All of them other than Morton were between a 2.9 fWAR and a 3.6 fWAR. Morton, who was a clear exception due to his reliance on inducing groundballs had a respectable 2.2 fWAR. I find it fairly remarkable how concentrated the performance of these guys is. I think those numbers are a fair over/under for what we can get from Bard as a starter.
The kicker is that outside of Morton, Bard has by far the highest GB% of this group (52.7%). Bard also had an average fastball velocity more than 2 mph higher than any of these guys. This will most likely decline as he moves to a starter, but it should still be elite. Ogando for reference lost 1.2 mph on his fastball when he moved to the rotation.
In terms of more subjective evidence, Bard WANTS to start. He's openly talked about wanting it. On top of that we've had front office personel come out and testify about him having a strong makeup and the right character to make this transition. The innings will clearly be a concern, but he wouldn't be the first pitcher to transition form a relief pitcher to a starter. It is a move that can work.
I also think the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey speak volumes about the Red Sox commitment to Bard's transition to the rotation.
So what will this year hold for Bard? Does he make it out of spring training as a starter? If so, what kind of production can we expect from him?
