Why the sox need an innings eater (like Saunders) in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Why the sox need an innings eater (like Saunders)

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LennSakata		#61	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 321 01/09/12 9:12 AM	Carlos Silva and Cook in the same Pawtucket rotation could facilitate a Jose Inglesias highlight reel every night.
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grandsalami		#62	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 265 01/09/12 12:28 PM	Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal Source: #Cubs close on Maholm. #MLB
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RedSox0407Champs		#63	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 67 01/09/12 1:35 PM	Call me crazy, but I do believe the Sox will find themselves short starting pitching. The Sox can have great starting pitching as it is, but 1) Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz need to stay healthy and make more than 90 starts between them 2) Bard doesn't have to be Derek Lowe circa 2002 (although that would be awesome), but he has to give them 180 IP of solid pitching and close to 30 starts. 3) Somebody like Felix Doubront seizes the #5 role for most of the season, isn't totally awful, and hands off to a healthy Daisuke at some midpoint time in the season. That is a bunch of huge IFs. More likely, the Big 3 will probably make closer to 80 starts this season than 90, because the injury history is there. Asking 180 innings out of Bard is alot, and who knows how much quality will be in those innings? That said, I think the Sox have to give him a shot. Bard is the guy who has the ability to become a front-line starter. Meanwhile, the Sox keep signing the Andrew Millers, Aaron Cooks and Carlos Silvas of the world - I hope they stay in Pawtucket and never pitch in Boston. I know the Sox are trying to "find the next Garcia and Colon", but this might be worse than the next "Smoltz, Penny, and Lackey". The main point is that the philosophy of throwing crap against the starting pitching wall and seeing what sticks can be a dubious one if your top starters are injury prone and you might need 1/3 of your season starts made by these kinds of guys. That's a scary proposition in the AL East. The way the Sox are going about things, you almost wonder if they'd be better off just re-signing Tim Wakefield, so he can waste 30 starts to get his 7 wins to set the all-time Sox win record and make the masses happy - after all we all want to see Wakefield win those 7 games - he told us so.
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beasleyrockah		#64	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 366 01/09/12 3:33 PM	RedSox0407Champs wrote: Call me crazy, but I do believe the Sox will find themselves short starting pitching. The Sox can have great starting pitching as it is, but 1) Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz need to stay healthy and make more than 90 starts between them 2) Bard doesn't have to be Derek Lowe circa 2002 (although that would be awesome), but he has to give them 180 IP of solid pitching and close to 30 starts. 3) Somebody like Felix Doubront seizes the #5 role for most of the season, isn't totally awful, and hands off to a healthy Daisuke at some midpoint time in the season. That is a bunch of huge IFs. More likely, the Big 3 will probably make closer to 80 starts this season than 90, because the injury history is there. Asking 180 innings out of Bard is alot, and who knows how much quality will be in those innings? That said, I think the Sox have to give him a shot. Bard is the guy who has the ability to become a front-line starter. Meanwhile, the Sox keep signing the Andrew Millers, Aaron Cooks and Carlos Silvas of the world - I hope they stay in Pawtucket and never pitch in Boston. I know the Sox are trying to "find the next Garcia and Colon", but this might be worse than the next "Smoltz, Penny, and Lackey". The main point is that the philosophy of throwing crap against the starting pitching wall and seeing what sticks can be a dubious one if your top starters are injury prone and you might need 1/3 of your season starts made by these kinds of guys. That's a scary proposition in the AL East. The way the Sox are going about things, you almost wonder if they'd be better off just re-signing Tim Wakefield, so he can waste 30 starts to get his 7 wins to set the all-time Sox win record and make the masses happy - after all we all want to see Wakefield win those 7 games - he told us so. Or they could aquire another starter or two between now and August. Your scenarios of "what has to happen" are extreme, those scenarios don't all have to happen for this team to make the playoffs.
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RedSox0407Champs		#65	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 69 01/09/12 5:22 PM	beasleyrockah wrote: RedSox0407Champs wrote: Call me crazy, but I do believe the Sox will find themselves short starting pitching. The Sox can have great starting pitching as it is, but 1) Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz need to stay healthy and make more than 90 starts between them 2) Bard doesn't have to be Derek Lowe circa 2002 (although that would be awesome), but he has to give them 180 IP of solid pitching and close to 30 starts. 3) Somebody like Felix Doubront seizes the #5 role for most of the season, isn't totally awful, and hands off to a healthy Daisuke at some midpoint time in the season. That is a bunch of huge IFs. More likely, the Big 3 will probably make closer to 80 starts this season than 90, because the injury history is there. Asking 180 innings out of Bard is alot, and who knows how much quality will be in those innings? That said, I think the Sox have to give him a shot. Bard is the guy who has the ability to become a front-line starter. Meanwhile, the Sox keep signing the Andrew Millers, Aaron Cooks and Carlos Silvas of the world - I hope they stay in Pawtucket and never pitch in Boston. I know the Sox are trying to "find the next Garcia and Colon", but this might be worse than the next "Smoltz, Penny, and Lackey". The main point is that the philosophy of throwing crap against the starting pitching wall and seeing what sticks can be a dubious one if your top starters are injury prone and you might need 1/3 of your season starts made by these kinds of guys. That's a scary proposition in the AL East. The way the Sox are going about things, you almost wonder if they'd be better off just re-signing Tim Wakefield, so he can waste 30 starts to get his 7 wins to set the all-time Sox win record and make the masses happy - after all we all want to see Wakefield win those 7 games - he told us so. Or they could aquire another starter or two between now and August. Your scenarios of "what has to happen" are extreme, those scenarios don't all have to happen for this team to make the playoffs. As far as acquiring another starter or two, it depends on what they're willing to spend and that goes for July 31st as well. If the Sox are hell bent on staying under the luxury tax limit, then there's not much of quality they can be expected to add. As far as my scenarios go, all I was trying to say is what it would take for the Sox to have "great" starting pitching. The Sox can get into the playoffs with adequate to good starting pitching, if the offense, defense, and bullpen do their jobs. My point is that the Sox don't have a ton of margin for error with their starting pitching. Bard is the key. If/when Beckett and Buchholz miss time, then they'll need Bard to step up and be more than a #4 starter, because if he doesn't, they don't really have anybody capable of doing it. None of the guys they got with the possible exception of a healthy Daisuke have the capability of being a front line starter, and unfortunately, a bunch of those guys look to be below replacement level which is what they had last year for a lot of starts.
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grandsalami		#66	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 268 01/09/12 10:06 PM	gwynar Gen Sueyoshi ヤンキースが黒田に破格の12億円提示か nikkansports.com/baseball/mlb/n… via @nikkansportscom Hiroki Kuroda could be close to deal w/ New York Yankees: US$15.5M & uni #15
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ozebaseball		#67	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1478 01/10/12 5:47 AM	I very much agree 0407Champs. I tried to make this point just now in another thread, just because the Sox can point to a long list of names (Bard, Aceves, Miller, Tazawa, Doubront, Matsuzaka, Silva, Cook or even Wilson et al.) doesn't mean they actual have real starting pitching depth. Some of those guys could easily get re-injured or delayed in their rehab; some may not work out as starters; some are just crappy to start off with and some probably aren't truly ready. If you're looking at them to fill one spot, cool. But the Red Sox are relying on them to fill two full rotations spots... and then for Lester, Buchholz and Beckett to make ALL their starts on top of that (and to pitch well in those starts). People like to talk about how the front three is strong compared to the rest of the league, and whilst that's true, you're constantly a (minor) injury away from trotting out a rotation that is majority rehab/experiment/prospect/drek and talking about yet another year where the Sox were torpedoed by injuries where the reality is they were really sunk by roster and payroll inflexibility. I think the Sox definitely do need an innings eater. The solution? Well unfortunately it doesn't really exist. It's probably some combination of Lackey and Dice-K, by rights they should be eating the innings, it's just unfortunate it hasn't come to pass and the necessary result of that is a thin starting rotation that will require things to go the right way to be above average (or even average, top to bottom). Tomorrow is valentines day here in Brazil, my girlfriend has work to do and won't likely be with me. Any good milf movies? - DonCaballero 11/6/11
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jmei		#68	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1444 01/10/12 9:52 AM Forum Moderator	Brandon Webb reportedly averaged 83 mph on his fastball last year. No thanks. There is an opportunity cost with MiLB signings in that you could have signed a better reclaimation project. Cook is a really good depth signing, he gets crazy ground balls and if he's healthy he could easily post a low-4s ERA with the infield defense of the Red Sox. I think this team still has one signing/trade for a more reliable starter in them. Either one of Kuroda/Oswalt or a trade for Garza or W. Rodriguez. I think they'll be OK if they don't but as has been discussed, the depth is a bit of a mirage once injuries start popping up.
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DCB26		#69	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 45 01/10/12 11:41 AM	Would a hideous three-headed monster of Harden, Cook, and Silva count as an "innings eater"? The idea being that you (hopefully) get 15-20 good starts out of Harden and let Cook or Silva or whoever take the other 10-15 and expect roughly average performance out of the whole thing. Also, I agree that if things go perfectly Cook has some chance to be valuable on his own.
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jamalisamra20		#70	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 677 01/10/12 6:11 PM	Total speculation (haven't seen it reported anywhere) but I'd love to have Jeremy Guthrie if to Os were willing to deal him. He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher in four of the last five years while averaging 197 IP, and he's done it in the ALE. He'll be 33 next year and is in his final year of arbitration (and should be in line for 8-9 million on a one year deal), meaning: 1) He wouldn't require a kings ransom in return 2) His contract comes off the books at the end of this year, meaning we'd still have the flexibility to go after a starter in what is shaping up to be a pretty deep FA pitching class. His ERA took a jump last year but his strand rate also dipped below 70% after sitting comfortably around 75% during the rest of his Os tenure. Combine that with a switch from the Os below average defense to the Sox above average defense and you could see a rebound. If the only 'impact' arms still available on the market are Kuroda, Oswalt, Jackson and Garza I think he stacks up well when you take a look at the Sox needs. He's done it in the ALE (Kuroda has pitched only in the NLW/Chavez), is a near lock to throw ~200 IP/30 GS (you can't say that about Oswalt) and will only require a single year commitment (Edwin Jackson laughs at the thought of signing a one year deal). I'd obviously rather have Garza but I don't think the Sox have the ammo to make that move without gutting their farm system. All this being said I don't know if the Os plan on moving him, but as a rebuilding club (or at least one who should be rebuilding), you would have to think the Duke would listen to any reasonable offer.
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Guidas		#71	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2500 01/11/12 6:12 AM	jamalisamra20 wrote: Total speculation (haven't seen it reported anywhere) but I'd love to have Jeremy Guthrie if to Os were willing to deal him. He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher in four of the last five years while averaging 197 IP, and he's done it in the ALE. He'll be 33 next year and is in his final year of arbitration (and should be in line for 8-9 million on a one year deal), meaning: 1) He wouldn't require a kings ransom in return 2) His contract comes off the books at the end of this year, meaning we'd still have the flexibility to go after a starter in what is shaping up to be a pretty deep FA pitching class. His ERA took a jump last year but his strand rate also dipped below 70% after sitting comfortably around 75% during the rest of his Os tenure. Combine that with a switch from the Os below average defense to the Sox above average defense and you could see a rebound. If the only 'impact' arms still available on the market are Kuroda, Oswalt, Jackson and Garza I think he stacks up well when you take a look at the Sox needs. He's done it in the ALE (Kuroda has pitched only in the NLW/Chavez), is a near lock to throw ~200 IP/30 GS (you can't say that about Oswalt) and will only require a single year commitment (Edwin Jackson laughs at the thought of signing a one year deal). I'd obviously rather have Garza but I don't think the Sox have the ammo to make that move without gutting their farm system. All this being said I don't know if the Os plan on moving him, but as a rebuilding club (or at least one who should be rebuilding), you would have to think the Duke would listen to any reasonable offer I'm not sure what you're basing this on, but I'm guessing the Orioles will want at least one top 5 prospect from the Sox system - likely Middlebrooks - plus another piece who could step into their rotation (Doubront, Wilson). Why would they ask for any less when they are under no pressure to move him, and will likely be able to demand at least that much from a team desperate for pitching at the trading deadline?
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Curll84		#72	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1516 01/17/12 10:17 AM	Gavin Floyd! He would be a fine, fine addition to the team for years to come. https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/159281131781505026 #WhiteSox still listening to offers on Gavin Floyd, sources say. LegendofJedLowrie.com \| RoyalRooters.com
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RedSox0407Champs		#73	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 82 01/17/12 1:30 PM	Curll84 wrote: Gavin Floyd! He would be a fine, fine addition to the team for years to come. https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/159281131781505026 #WhiteSox still listening to offers on Gavin Floyd, sources say. If he costs $7 million or so, as I think he does, then the Sox aren't probably interested, or else they'd just sign Oswalt and keep their prospects.
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Yirmiyahu		#74	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3872 01/17/12 2:03 PM Forum Moderator	RedSox0407Champs wrote: If he costs $7 million or so, as I think he does, then the Sox aren't probably interested, or else they'd just sign Oswalt and keep their prospects. His salary is $7M, but his AAV is $3.875M. Still, I think you're right that it makes more sense to just sign Oswalt. ADD: The equation is actually $11.2M ($8M + $3.2M in taxes) for Oswalt, or $8.6M ($7M + $1.6M in taxes) plus prospects for Floyd. Last Edited By: Yirmiyahu 01/17/12 2:10 PM. Edited 1 time.
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RedSox0407Champs		#75	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 83 01/17/12 5:15 PM	Yirmiyahu wrote: RedSox0407Champs wrote: If he costs $7 million or so, as I think he does, then the Sox aren't probably interested, or else they'd just sign Oswalt and keep their prospects. His salary is $7M, but his AAV is $3.875M. Still, I think you're right that it makes more sense to just sign Oswalt. ADD: The equation is actually $11.2M ($8M + $3.2M in taxes) for Oswalt, or $8.6M ($7M + $1.6M in taxes) plus prospects for Floyd. Thanks. I stand corrected.
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MaineSox		#76	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 115 01/17/12 5:39 PM	I have to think that a one year deal (Oswalt) fits better than a multi-year deal (Floyd or Garza) at this point even leaving aside cost (money and/or prospects), and the luxury tax. If they were to trade for a multi-year pitcher, and Bard happens to work out as a starter, they wouldn't have enough spots in the rotation when Lackey returns (not that anyone would be too upset about Lackey not having a spot in the rotation); it would also completely eliminate any chance of them signing one of the free agent pitchers who may be available after next season (Hamels, Greinke, Cain, et al).
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Yirmiyahu		#77	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3875 01/17/12 5:48 PM Forum Moderator	I agree that they should be jumping at the opportunity to sign Oswalt for 1 year, but neither Floyd nor Garza represent commitments for 2013. Floyd's is an option year, Garza's is an arbitration year. If he doesn't perform well enough to be worth the money, you don't lose anything. If he performs well enough to be worth it, but you don't have a spot for him, you have a nice trade chip.
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MaineSox		#78	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 116 01/17/12 7:42 PM	Thanks Yirm, for some reason I was thinking that they both had guaranteed contracts through 2013. Never mind me.
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Why the sox need an innings eater (like Saunders)