BA's Red Sox Top 10 Prospects Rankings in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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BA's Red Sox Top 10 Prospects Rankings

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wskeleton76		#41	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 898 01/08/12 1:19 AM Veteran Member	How about Joe Crede as WMB's comp? He is a career .254.304.444.748 hitter and very good defender at 3B.
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Boomerangs		#42	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 347 01/08/12 3:15 AM	I also agree that Middlebrooks could be vastly over rated. When other players are flawed in any way we seem to put the hammer down on them sometimes. What has Middlebrooks done that was all that spectacular short of last year? He has developed slowly. Even Iglesias hit better at the AAA level last year, and he is significantly younger. Maybe Middlebrooks is a stud but he could also be the flavor of the month. The guy who just happened to have a good year recently. I don't want to dump on him. He's a good prospect. He may well be our best prospect...who really knows. We are all guessing right? Giving our best, objective opinions. Part of it is that he is at a valuable position, but so is Iglesias and Iglesias has been thrown under the bus by half of baseball. There are others who have had inconsistent performances who jump to the top only to fall later. It happens all across the baseball world. We have a lot of potential stars on the farm but to me the ones who have consistently performed at each level should get the edge. That shows the ability to make adjustments. We go with the guy who just happened to have a good 200 AB sometimes. The whole consistency argument could also describe Daniel Nava but sometimes I think we under rate the overall achievement level of some guys and focus only on what have you done for us lately considerations. If a guy has a hot streak and hits 10 HR in a month or 2, OMG he's off the charts. We should have our eyes open of course but we should look more for consistency IMO.
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soxfan13		#43	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 63 01/08/12 7:10 AM	Boomerangs wrote: I also agree that Middlebrooks could be vastly over rated. When other players are flawed in any way we seem to put the hammer down on them sometimes. What has Middlebrooks done that was all that spectacular short of last year? He has developed slowly. Even Iglesias hit better at the AAA level last year, and he is significantly younger. Maybe Middlebrooks is a stud but he could also be the flavor of the month. The guy who just happened to have a good year recently. I don't want to dump on him. He's a good prospect. He may well be our best prospect...who really knows. We are all guessing right? Giving our best, objective opinions. Part of it is that he is at a valuable position, but so is Iglesias and Iglesias has been thrown under the bus by half of baseball. There are others who have had inconsistent performances who jump to the top only to fall later. It happens all across the baseball world. We have a lot of potential stars on the farm but to me the ones who have consistently performed at each level should get the edge. That shows the ability to make adjustments. We go with the guy who just happened to have a good 200 AB sometimes. The whole consistency argument could also describe Daniel Nava but sometimes I think we under rate the overall achievement level of some guys and focus only on what have you done for us lately considerations. If a guy has a hot streak and hits 10 HR in a month or 2, OMG he's off the charts. We should have our eyes open of course but we should look more for consistency IMO. I agree with you here, Middlebrooks I think is a little hyped, but Iglesias is really underrated, he had a really low BABIP, and he was very young for his league. People are saying that they now think he'll be an average player, so he shouldn't be rated very high. I think he'll be better than that, but if he is an average player, that should be a very highly rated prospect because you do realize, Scott McKinney's research showed that 70% of BA top 100 prospects bust.
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80GradeMouth		#44	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 35 01/08/12 11:00 AM	I'm shocked how high many scouts are on Middlebrooks. I honestly think the Sox should sell high before the ugly BB/K numbers really start impacting his triple slash and some of the prospect luster wears off. I have a sinking feeling his best projection is Brandon Inge with a bit more power. That's still certainly a very useful player, but a far cry from the Evan Longoria comparisons you hear once in a while. I think it's a mistake to put too much weight on a players BB/K numbers in the minors. Let's take a look at the BB/K numbers from Player X during his first three minor league seasons. .29, .25, .27 All pretty pathetic. Player X of course turned out to be Matt Kemp. Now I'm not saying that Middlebrooks is even near the type of prospect that Kemp was on any basis, it's just an instructive. Toolsy players with poor BB/K numbers in the minors can end up being stars and if you are going to give up on that upside at age 22 you need to get something very significant back in return. Even if he doesn't improve his plate discipline as much as Kemp did, as you mentioned he's still Brandon Inge with the bat. Inge however was a converted catcher and not a very good 3B. Middlebrooks projects to be an excellent 3B. There aren't a ton of players like that that you can find to play for the major league minimum.
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DCB26		#45	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 41 01/08/12 11:10 AM	I've definitely been having trouble this offseason not comparing Iglesias against Middlebrooks (which is a horrible way to evaluate prospects) given their similar BB numbers, and Iglesias' better K% and younger age at a higher level vs. Middlebrooks' power. Of course, the reason I do this is because I've barely seen either one play live -- If I had ingrained memories of Middlebrooks driving the ball all over the park and Iglesias rolling over weak grounders, I probably wouldn't care too much about the numbers. That being said, this is one of those times where I really wonder if the national guys that compile these lists have ever seen these players, or if they're a little too obsessed with Middlebrooks' HR numbers and/or Iglesias' slg%.
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jmei		#46	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1443 01/08/12 11:16 AM Forum Moderator	Right, but Kemp did that in Rookie ball, Low-A, and High-A at ages 18-20. In AA that improved to 0.53 and in AAA it was 0.65, both at comparable ages to WMB. Middlebrooks' BB/K has actually declined as he's moved up the ladder, from 0.39 in Greenville to 0.28 in Salem to 0.22 in Portland to 0.17 (SSS) in Pawtucket. Certainly, Middlebrooks has significant upside, especially considering his age. But he has significant improvements to make before he gets there and it's no sure thing that he does. Also, Inge was a very good defensive 3B, with a career 5.6 UZR/150 and peak seasons of 15.2 and 10 UZR/150 at the hot corner. Joe Crede I think is a solid comp, although he's weird in that he never struck out all that much (career 13.6%) put posted a terrible career .255 BABIP. But I think Middlebrooks projects to have a similar triple-slash (Crede career .254/.304/.444) and defense (Crede career 10.8 UZR/150). EDIT: the issue with Crede is apparently that a lingering back injury resulted in him making a ton of bad contact (infield flies, weak ground balls, etc.) later in his career. But Crede's peak season of .283/.323/.506 in 2006 with 30 HRs and elite defense is I think a reasonable ceiling for Middlebrook during his peak. It's just a question of whether WMB can cut down the strikeouts enough to reach it (Crede in that season only struck out 9.9% of the time, which is less than half of Middlebrooks' K rate in AA). Last Edited By: jmei 01/08/12 11:28 AM. Edited 3 times.
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DCB26		#47	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 42 01/08/12 11:18 AM	Edit: Jmei said everything I did 2 minutes before I did. Edit: Edit: In an attempt to get some value out of this post, Kemp's discipline numbers when he got to the majors are around what Middlebrooks has been doing in the minors. The problem isn't so much that you can't live with a BB % of 7.5 or so in the majors, it's a question of how much worse is that number going to be when Middlebrooks gets to the majors. Last Edited By: DCB26 01/08/12 11:31 AM. Edited 2 times.
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Yirmiyahu		#48	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3845 01/08/12 12:14 PM Forum Moderator	The problem isn't that there aren't players who have had numbers similar to Middlebrooks' in A+/AA/AAA and then had good MLB careers, it's they are incredibly rare, and there are a lot more players who had numbers similar to Middlebrooks' in A+/AA/AAA and then had failed at MLB.
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Cem21		#49	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3419 01/08/12 12:26 PM Chris Mellen Director of Scouting SoxProspects.com	qutennis5 wrote: If, based on some of the comments here, WMB is so destined for MLB mediocrity (at best), then why is he ranked as the #1 prospect on this site? Because the people who do the rankings and have scouted Middlebrooks since signing with the organization do not believe he is destined for MLB mediocrity, at best.
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80GradeMouth		#50	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 36 01/08/12 2:54 PM	Yirmiyahu wrote: The problem isn't that there aren't players who have had numbers similar to Middlebrooks' in A+/AA/AAA and then had good MLB careers, it's they are incredibly rare, and there are a lot more players who had numbers similar to Middlebrooks' in A+/AA/AAA and then had failed at MLB. Could you elaborate on this? I'm not sure that's true.
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norbit14		#51	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4054 01/08/12 3:27 PM Veteran Member	I think people are selling Middlebrooks wayyyyyyy short here. We don't know what he's gonna be but working with hitting coaches he's working in Boston I expect him to keep improving at the plate we'll see. I would vote for Xander being our #1 prospect, in fact thats the way I see it if we are talking pieces that are untouchable. But that doesn't mean that I don't think Middlebrooks has the potential to be a perennial All-Star 3B at the MLB level. He has the Power and the defense so with minor improvements at the plate he'll make there. I'd like to see him work with Magadan in spring training. Am Dominican and you??
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Steve Dillard		#52	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1663 01/08/12 4:00 PM	WMB seems to be a place holder, defaulting to #1 in the rankings for the people who are reluctant to put unproven potential on the top of the list. I would expect by Bogaerts, Cecchini and Swihart ahead of him by June. As a #4 prospect there's a lot less fuss about his shortcomings, and like Reddick, he can come up without expectation when Youkilis is hurt and see if he can adjust and become Crede or something better.
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80GradeMouth		#53	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 37 01/08/12 4:41 PM	Certainly, Middlebrooks has significant upside, especially considering his age. But he has significant improvements to make before he gets there and it's no sure thing that he does. That's fair, and not something that most observers would disagree with. Certainly different from saying that he's a "sell high" candidate. I don't think it's unreasonable for Middlebrooks to be a consistent 10 UZR player on defense, which is better than what Inge was. From Kevin Goldstein I've learned to hate comps but there are players in the majors who have poor plate discipline yet are still valuable due to their power and glove work. Austin Jackson, and Drew Stubbs come to mind. The reason Middlebrooks is rated so highly is that he stands a good chance of becoming that and as you alluded to, has the athleticism and raw power to become much more.
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DCB26		#54	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 43 01/08/12 4:43 PM	Agree with Norbit that people are really underrating Middlebrooks. I admit to being curious as to what sets him apart from other poor-discipline prospects, but scouts can read the same numbers I can, and have the added advantage of actually seeing the guy play, so it stands to reason there's something there. As several people have said, there's plenty of reasons to believe Middlebrooks could improve on his sub-par discipline, and even if he doesn't he appears set to have a multi-year major league career, and that alone is worth quite a bit.
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Yirmiyahu		#55	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3846 01/08/12 6:25 PM Forum Moderator	80GradeMouth wrote: Yirmiyahu wrote: The problem isn't that there aren't players who have had numbers similar to Middlebrooks' in A+/AA/AAA and then had good MLB careers, it's they are incredibly rare, and there are a lot more players who had numbers similar to Middlebrooks' in A+/AA/AAA and then had failed at MLB. Could you elaborate on this? I'm not sure that's true. Well, I shouldn't have worded it the way I did. I'm no expert on the subject. But try looking for guys with the following attributes in the high minors: well-regarded by scouts and prospect watchers, awful K/BB ratios, good OPS. Wily Mo Pena, Drew Henson, Joel Guzman, Delmon Young, Jeff Francoeur, Dallas McPherson, and Brandon Wood all fit the bill to various degrees. I've been looking for guys on the opposite side of the coin, but can't really find too many. Matt Kemp isn't a good fit because he fixed his discipline problems by AA/AAA (as jmei pointed out).
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templeUsox		#56	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16931 01/08/12 7:25 PM Veteran Member Podcast Panelist	I'm bearish on WMB as well. I think I made the Joe Crede comparison a couple weeks ago in another thread and I still think it's appropriate (despite everything which has transpired over the last few weeks). His batting profile has crystallized at this point. Yes, he can certainly shift courses, it's been done before. But if I were to project him based on all the data we have, statistical and subjective, it seems like he's a good bet to have a solid MLB career, but unlikely to be an all-star. Edit: By the way, I think that jibes pretty well with the site's scouting report. Projects as an everyday third baseman at the big league level with above-average offensive potential during peak seasons. I think the Scott Rolen comparison is way too lofty though. Rolen will get HOF votes. Last Edited By: templeUsox 01/08/12 7:38 PM. Edited 2 times.
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chavopepe2		#57	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1880 01/08/12 7:36 PM Senior Forum Moderator	It is a lot easier to find the busts than it is to find guys who have succeeded with that profile. One name that makes some sense is Carlos Gonzalez. Edit: This is in response to Yirm. Cargo is a guy that had fairly poor BB/K numbers in the high minors, but has been successful in the majors. I don't see him as a good comp for Middlebrooks. I think Inge/Crede is a good comp for Middlebrooks. That would put him as about a 2 WAR player with a peak season or two at about 4 WAR. Last Edited By: chavopepe2 01/08/12 8:32 PM. Edited 1 time.
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templeUsox		#58	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16932 01/08/12 7:42 PM Veteran Member Podcast Panelist	Dat swing
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DonCaballero		#59	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1343 01/08/12 9:34 PM	CarGo has one of the sweetest swings I've ever seen in baseball, makes me wonder how long will the Rockies be irrelevant so I don't have to worry about him, just enjoy him playing.
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Boomerangs		#60	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 348 01/08/12 10:05 PM	With all the above said, we should examine exactly why WM is #1 after really only one good year offensively. We have maybe few other prospects at the higher levels which warrant #1 consideration and we are not ready to anoint a Bogaerts or a Cechinni that status after very limited PT in the minors. I don't think anyone is saying he's a bad prospect or likely to not even make the majors. His upside is substantial. The defensive value of a good 3rd baseman like Middlebrooks should not be underestimated in determining team value. Maybe that's the biggest part of the equation. Ranaudo didn't blow us away. We find fault with other options. WM is the default option. My gut tells me that 2012 will be a huge year for sox prospects overall though. We have too many guys who could be on the verge of breakout seasons. And after all the recent prospect trades that is a great sign.
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