Sox Offseason (rumors) Thread in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

0 Points

Sox Offseason (rumors) Thread

Author	Comment
80GradeMouth		#801	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 27 12/31/11 12:16 PM	His avg velocity on the fastball was still at 92.1 according to pitch fx. Guy knows how to pitch and still has above avg, if unspectacular stuff. I think it's a mistake to rate velocity by using a pitchers average fastball velocity. A pitcher may average 92 but be able to reach 95-96 when they need it. That's a big difference from a guy who sits at 92. As far as Kuroda's knowledge of pitching goes, I'm sure that would be sorely tested by pitching in the strongest division in baseball and not having the benefit of 15-20 starts in Dodgers Stadium or Petco. I'm not saying that Kuroda would fail if the Red Sox were to sign him, however there is a reason why giving him $10M+ even for one year might not be the greatest idea. Last Edited By: 80GradeMouth 12/31/11 12:31 PM. Edited 1 time.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
RedSox0407Champs		#802	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 63 12/31/11 12:43 PM	ji oh wrote: RedSox0407Champs wrote: I'm happy that Rich Hill was re-signed. ... So once he is healthy the pen could have two quality lefties in Morales and Hill and a solid 1-2 punch in Bailey and Melancon. Then there are the two question marks: Bobby Jenks and Rich Hill, and perhaps a guy like Michael Bowden (more likely) or Scott Atchison who is out of options. ... Typo? Dittography? You have Rich Hill both as a sure-fire quality lefty and as a question mark. Good catch, Ji Oh. When I was referring to two question marks, I was talking about Bobby Jenks and Matt Albers. Albers was who I meant. But you are probably right. Eight innings is a small sample size and Rich Hill is no sure thing, but let's just say that I'm more excited about his coming back to the bullpen then seeing Bobby Jenks or Matt Albers waddle out of the pen. Albers is the one I couldn't figure out. I had never seen a reliever have such a great 4 month stretch followed by such an awful two month stretch. I guess I'm trying to say the extremeness of his greatness followed by the extremeness of his stinkiosity was surprising. I mean I was thrilled with the job he was doing and by Sept I cringed everytime he came out of the pen. I suppose the same could happen to Hill with more exposure, too, but I just think his stuff looked so nasty coming from that sidearm angle. I like his chances of being more effective - if he is indeed healthy. And Jenks, unfortunately, is one of the poster children for too much money not well spent. At this point, I'd be surprised if he reverted to being an effective reliever. I wish the Sox had his $6 million to allocate to the budget, but they don't.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
charliezink16		#803	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1027 12/31/11 3:33 PM	mredsox89 wrote: Rich Hill signed to a minor league contract with a ST invite Mending Hill has high hopes for Sox bullpen Twitter (Tweet about Sox alot) YouTube Account
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
grandsalami		#804	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 249 12/31/11 3:43 PM	bradfo Rob Bradford According to a source, any interest the #RedSox had in Carlos Quentin was tempered by his ability to man Fenway's RF fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/…
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
LennSakata		#805	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 320 12/31/11 8:17 PM	80GradeMouth wrote: His avg velocity on the fastball was still at 92.1 according to pitch fx. Guy knows how to pitch and still has above avg, if unspectacular stuff. I think it's a mistake to rate velocity by using a pitchers average fastball velocity. A pitcher may average 92 but be able to reach 95-96 when they need it. That's a big difference from a guy who sits at 92. As far as Kuroda's knowledge of pitching goes, I'm sure that would be sorely tested by pitching in the strongest division in baseball and not having the benefit of 15-20 starts in Dodgers Stadium or Petco. I'm not saying that Kuroda would fail if the Red Sox were to sign him, however there is a reason why giving him $10M+ even for one year might not be the greatest idea. Either way 92 certainly isn't soft-tossing which as my point. It may only be a tick above average but his velocity has been consistent since 2008. He also throws a sinker that is just a hair under his 4 seam velocity. I think we all understand his performance would drop in the AL East but he we'd be looking at him as a # 4.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
80GradeMouth		#806	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 29 01/01/12 1:14 AM	I think we all understand his performance would drop in the AL East but he we'd be looking at him as a # 4. It might drop considerably, and the risk is great enough that if he wants $10M+, he might not be worth it even for just one year. If that's his price, could you understand why the Red Sox might balk at that? I could.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Yirmiyahu		#807	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3822 01/01/12 1:49 AM Forum Moderator	80GradeMouth wrote: I think we all understand his performance would drop in the AL East but he we'd be looking at him as a # 4. It might drop considerably, and the risk is great enough that if he wants $10M+, he might not be worth it even for just one year. If that's his price, could you understand why the Red Sox might balk at that? I could. What's the "risk" ? It's a 1-year commitment, doesn't cost any prospects, doesn't cost any draft picks, doesn't put us over the luxury tax threshhold this year (we're already over), and won't affect the luxury tax next year. If he turns out to be a dud, it doesn't hurt the Sox going forward whatsoever. In this type of situation, the Sox should be making the decision entirely based on whether they think he'll succeed in the AL East, and not even consider the price tag. I also think $10M is quite reasonable.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
80GradeMouth		#808	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 30 01/01/12 5:30 PM	What's the "risk" ? The risk is that it's $10-$15M down the drain. the Sox should be making the decision entirely based on whether they think he'll succeed in the AL East, and not even consider the price tag. Shouldn't the Red Sox at least "consider" the price tag of any player they acquire in relation to how many wins you expect the player to add and the risk that he's wowrthless? If you aren't going to consider the price tag, then why not just sign Kuroda for one year at $30M? There's no way he'll be worth that, but you'll be sure to get the player.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
80GradeMouth		#809	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 31 01/01/12 6:20 PM	One other thing. Even if you assumed that $10M was a reasonable price for Kuroda, with the Red Sox over the luxury tax that wouldn't be his actual cost. With the Sox going over the luxury tax for the third time and having to pay a 40% tax, the incremental cost of adding a $10M salaried player would actually be $14M.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
pedroiayouk1520		#810	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 197 01/01/12 6:35 PM	80GradeMouth wrote: One other thing. Even if you assumed that $10M was a reasonable price for Kuroda, with the Red Sox over the luxury tax that wouldn't be his actual cost. With the Sox going over the luxury tax for the third time and having to pay a 40% tax, the incremental cost of adding a $10M salaried player would actually be $14M. This is why I think Oswalt/Kuroda doesn't make much sense unless there are no other options available. In order to bring $14M of value to the team, Oswalt or Kuroda would have to pitch to their potential. Best case scenario, they are worth the $14M. More likely in my opinion, they put up a 4+ ERA due to the adjustment to the AL east (Oswalt had a .280 BAA in the NL last year). Throw in their age (34 & 37) and I don't think its worth the gamble. Kuroda also sketches me out a bit. It seems like he'd rather pitch wherever is the easier scenario for him instead of embracing competition and the opportunity to win (prefered to stay in the NL west and out of the playoffs instead of getting traded to a playoff contender).
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
80GradeMouth		#811	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 32 01/01/12 7:37 PM	Exactly PY! IF the Red Sox sign a starter they are realistically looking at the Harden/Vazquez bin as opposed to the Oswalt/Kuroda bin.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
jmei		#812	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1425 01/01/12 8:39 PM Forum Moderator	My understanding is that Kuroda preferred LA and the West Coast (and vetoed trades this summer) not because he's not a "competitor" or whatever but because, when coming over to MLB, he set up permanent residence in Southern California with his family (including two young children who go to English-language schools in CA) and he doesn't want to uproot them again. This, to me, is a perfectly reasonable rationale for exercising your no-trade clause. However, with the news that the Dodgers don't want him back, it appears he's open to signing with any team. There are plenty of reasons to not like Kuroda, but "he's not a competitor" shouldn't be one of them unless you think MLB players should be heartless automatons perpetually in pursuit of a championship.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Yirmiyahu		#813	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3823 01/01/12 8:53 PM Forum Moderator	80GradeMouth wrote: One other thing. Even if you assumed that $10M was a reasonable price for Kuroda, with the Red Sox over the luxury tax that wouldn't be his actual cost. With the Sox going over the luxury tax for the third time and having to pay a 40% tax, the incremental cost of adding a $10M salaried player would actually be $14M. That's true. But if ownership is willing to spend the money to get the best available starting pitcher on a 1-year deal, and (as I explained above) the move won't have any effect on future roster decisions or finances, then I don't see why I should be worried about the team's profit margin. Are you really saying that you think Harden/Vazquez will be better in 2012 than Oswalt/Kuroda? ADD: If you're not buying into my premise that a 1-year contract for a pitcher won't have any future financial impact, that's different. But if you're not saying that, I'm hard pressed to see how spending $3M for Harden/Vazquez will cause the Red Sox to win more games than spending $10M on Oswalt/Kuroda. Last Edited By: Yirmiyahu 01/01/12 9:04 PM. Edited 1 time.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
mredsox89		#814	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1663 01/01/12 10:49 PM	Yirmiyahu wrote: 80GradeMouth wrote: One other thing. Even if you assumed that $10M was a reasonable price for Kuroda, with the Red Sox over the luxury tax that wouldn't be his actual cost. With the Sox going over the luxury tax for the third time and having to pay a 40% tax, the incremental cost of adding a $10M salaried player would actually be $14M. That's true. But if ownership is willing to spend the money to get the best available starting pitcher on a 1-year deal, and (as I explained above) the move won't have any effect on future roster decisions or finances, then I don't see why I should be worried about the team's profit margin. Are you really saying that you think Harden/Vazquez will be better in 2012 than Oswalt/Kuroda? ADD: If you're not buying into my premise that a 1-year contract for a pitcher won't have any future financial impact, that's different. But if you're not saying that, I'm hard pressed to see how spending $3M for Harden/Vazquez will cause the Red Sox to win more games than spending $10M on Oswalt/Kuroda. If spending $10M (+tax $14M) makes it more likely for the team to make the playoffs and win the WS than spending $3M on a lower end guy, both at 1 year deals, it would seem to make much more sense to sign the higher end guy, even if he's not actually "worth" that. Are either Oswalt or Kuroda "14M" players, probably not. But if Oswalt/Kuroda gives you a WAR of 2 ("value" of $9M) vs. Harden who has been at 2+ just once since 05 it's worth it, even though he isn't necessarily worth the $14M you would be paying for him
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
chavopepe2		#815	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1878 01/02/12 7:27 AM Senior Forum Moderator	Don't forget two things when looking at value stats like WAR: 1) The cost of a replacement level player is also higher when you exceed the luxury tax limit, so the value equation is distorted. and 2) The marginal value of a win increases as you are more competitive. These two things lead me to believe that it is worth it to sign someone like Kuroda if you believe they can be successful in Boston next year - regardless of whether or not the traditional value metrics like WAR say it is.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Guidas		#816	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2475 01/02/12 9:07 AM	Also, with this crazy off-season market, replacement level starters are fewer in number and everyone seems to be getting larger salaries than we expected.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
mredsox89		#817	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1664 01/02/12 1:12 PM	I'd rather overpay and get Kuroda/Oswalt at an average/expected year from them, as it will probably still be better than if any of the lower end guys even exceed expectations. If signing a guy @ $10M vs. $3M is the difference between potentially making the playoffs, which I think a lot of us think it is, I don't care if it's an overpay and doubt the sox would as well. But I think the Sox FO will be ok going into ST with the top 3 in the rotation set, with Bard/Aceves battling for the 4 spot, and then either the other of those 2 or Miller/Tazawa/Doubront filling in at #5, and hoping to get anything worthwhile out of Dicek after the AS break. That's not to say they don't want another quality arm for the rotation, but they'd rather wait it out and see if they can trade for a guy during the season if a team struggles out of the gate
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Yirmiyahu		#818	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3827 01/02/12 1:28 PM Forum Moderator	mredsox89 wrote: I'd rather overpay and get Kuroda/Oswalt at an average/expected year from them, as it will probably still be better than if any of the lower end guys even exceed expectations. If signing a guy @ $10M vs. $3M is the difference between potentially making the playoffs, which I think a lot of us think it is, I don't care if it's an overpay and doubt the sox would as well. But I think the Sox FO will be ok going into ST with the top 3 in the rotation set, with Bard/Aceves battling for the 4 spot, and then either the other of those 2 or Miller/Tazawa/Doubront filling in at #5, and hoping to get anything worthwhile out of Dicek after the AS break. That's not to say they don't want another quality arm for the rotation, but they'd rather wait it out and see if they can trade for a guy during the season if a team struggles out of the gate Personally, I think the penny-pinching this offseason is solely about resetting the luxury tax and avoiding committing to multi-year free agents. This ownership has proven that its not simply cheap. I'm still hoping for one of Kuroda/Oswalt/Floyd/Garza. However, you could be right about their plans. If you are, they should really stockpile on some depth/spaghetti. Rich Harden is an injury risk who has decent upside, and pitched much better than his ERA last year, but he'll probably take a major league deal. Chris Young is likewise an injury guy with upside, but he could be had for a minor league deal. Brandon Webb and Ben Sheets are theoretically available, but could be done with baseball at this point... Aaron Cook, Kevin Millwood, Zach Duke should all be available on minor league deals, but they're all low-upside guys; you know what you're getting.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Guidas		#819	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2476 01/02/12 3:03 PM	Yirmiyahu wrote: Aaron Cook, Kevin Millwood, Zach Duke should all be available on minor league deals, but they're all low-upside guys; you know what you're getting. Right. Batting practice.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
FenwayTheHardWay		#820	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3383 01/02/12 3:22 PM Veteran Member	Guidas wrote: Also, with this crazy off-season market, replacement level starters are fewer in number and everyone seems to be getting larger salaries than we expected. By "everyone", do you mean "Albert Pujols"? "thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote

<< Previous Topic Next Topic >>

Add Reply

Yuku free message boards

SoxProspects.com

SoxProspects Links

Sox Offseason (rumors) Thread