jdb wrote:

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I might be in the minority but i would prefer Oswalt or Kuroda to any trade. I think we go past the tax this year but a trade would probably put us past it in 2013 also. Assuming cheap internal options like WMB, Doubront, Lavarnway etc are going to Chicago for Garza or Gavin Floyd. I think Floyd would be around 8 AAV and Garza close to 10.

I really think a one year deal will give us more options going forward and allow us to use homegrown players to fill some holes next season. Not to mention maybe one of the top FA SPs hits the market.

This. They are already over the Tax threshold so what the hell. With a one-year deal for Oswalt or Kuroda they have the chance to re-set with other salaries coming off the books next year. Also reset becomes easier in 2013, esp if MLB minimum talent is being worked in at 3rd (Middlebrooks) SS (Igelsias, for now), RF (Kalish/Lin) and perhaps even C (if Lavarnway improves enough to be a near-average defensive catcher or Butler can generate solid OBP at advanced levels). In fact if the latter occurs, you could have Lavarnway be a part time catcher/DH.

Even taking on Garza for two years, they should be able to reset to the $178M margin, next year with the salaries heading out the door (DiceK, Jenks, Scutaro, Papi and/or Youk being the big ones). Even with arb raises that's more than possible. A trade hurts because it would likely create a gap at 3rd in 2013 and beyond that would probably have to be addressed by Free Agency (more $$$) or another trade. Or you pick up Youk's 2013 option and have him be a part time DH/3rd baseman with either Punto or another candidate filling at 3rd and hoping Bogarts or Cecchini is ready for 2014.

There is also the Edwin Jackson option, who, if he can be had for a 1-year Beltre-type deal (unlikely, but at least becoming slightly more possible given the market) or even a reasonable 3 year deal ($12M a year - also becoming more possible) could at least lock in a level of certainty in the 4th starter slot that can be worked around in much the same way that Garza's two years would offer.