Fangraphs Top 15 prospect list in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Fangraphs Top 15 prospect list

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MaineSox	Fangraphs Top 15 prospect list		Lead	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 93 12/26/11 11:16 AM	Tags : None Fangraphs (Marc Hulet) recently posted their top 15 Red Sox prospect list: 1. Xander Bogaerts 2. Will Middlebrooks 3. Garin Cecchini 4. Blake Swihart 5. Matt Barnes 6. Anthony Ranaudo 7. Jackie Bradley Jr. 8. Ryan Lavarnway 9. Henry Owens 10. Brandon Jacobs 11. Jose Iglesias 12. Bryce Brentz 13. Kolbrin Vitek 14. Junichi Tazawa 15. Miles Head Sean Coyle was a pretty big topic of discussion in the comments section as well as in Hulet's chat the same day. Hulet's response to the questions was this: "Honestly, (Coyle) hit .247 with a 24% strikeout rate in low-A and the power is a result of the stadium/league. He’s 5-7 or 5-8… and power is not part of his game. Nice prospect but in the 16-22 range for me." ADD: here's the link to the list with his comments on each of the players - http://www.fangraphs.com/...rospects-boston-red-sox/ Last Edited By: MaineSox 12/26/11 12:32 PM. Edited 1 time.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3376 12/26/11 11:21 AM Veteran Member	MaineSox wrote: Sean Coyle was a pretty big topic of discussion in the comments section as well as in Hulet's chat the same day. Hulet's response to the questions was this: "Honestly, (Coyle) hit .247 with a 24% strikeout rate in low-A and the power is a result of the stadium/league. He’s 5-7 or 5-8… and power is not part of his game. Nice prospect but in the 16-22 range for me." And yet, Will Middlebrooks is #2. "thats 4 dingers tonite for #rays off wakefield, who looks his age, only older" - Jon Heyman
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High Heat		#2	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 44 12/26/11 11:54 AM	Kinda surprised Tazawa is up there. A couple of articles has discussed him as possibly a late inning reliever. Does he have the stuff for that?
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georgeb2701		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 166 12/26/11 12:19 PM	I can understand why people are critical of Coyle as a top-prospect, but I am still very high on him. Also, putting Xander at #1 looks like an effort to generate some buzz and discussion, rather than a serious ranking. Sure, he could be the next Hanley, but he could also become the next Michael Almanzar. But I admit that he is an exciting prospect, nonetheless. In addition, Henry Owens at #9 and Junichi Tazawa at #14 is laughable. Sure Owens is projectable, but so was Madison Younginer, and Tazawa is 25 and doesn't really have any plus pitches. Final thoughts: Good to see Cecchini and Swihart ranked highly. Interesting to see Barnes rated ahead of Ranauado.
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gfur732		#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 121 12/26/11 12:38 PM	georgeb2701 wrote: Also, putting Xander at #1 looks like an effort to generate some buzz and discussion, rather than a serious ranking. Sure, he could be the next Hanley, but he could also become the next Michael Almanzar. But I admit that he is an exciting prospect, nonetheless. I understand that, generally, you mean he could flame out, but Michael Almanzar isn't exactly the best comp here. The only time Almanzar put up an OPS over 700 was 99 plate appearances in rookie ball as a 17 year old. If Bogaerts doesn't realize his upside, at this point, his fall will be significantly more dramatic than Almanzar.
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DCB26		#5	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 25 12/26/11 1:09 PM	It's a list that definitely emphasizes the younger players in the system, to the point of nearly ignoring the lower-upside near-ready guys in the system, but I wouldn't say that having Owens or Tazawa where they are is all that ridiculous. If Owens does develop the way the author projects him to then he definitely deserves a spot, and I think Tazawa over Wilson or Doubront just depends on what you think of the players, it's all opinion anyway. Agree that the comment on Coyle not being included "because he hit .247" is pretty strange, most of the guys on this list are there based on their projections but yet Coyle is penalized for his batting average, of all things. I was happy that Vitek was included, as I think people are writing him off a little too quickly. Reading this list (and keeping in mind some of the other recent prospect lists) has made me wonder about the young talent in the Sox system. Are these young guys better/more projectable than we have been giving them credit for, or is the top of the system even weaker then this site wants to believe, or do the national list-makers just not know the system that well? In other words, should I be even more excited about the young guys, or even more concerned about the older prospects like Doubront, Wilson, Tazawa, Lin, Hassan, etc. I know none of those are top prospects, but even a reliable 4th OF/ 5th starter/ 7th inning reliever has some value, right?
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TheGoo		#6	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 3 12/26/11 2:17 PM	"Sean Coyle was a pretty big topic of discussion in the comments section as well as in Hulet's chat the same day. Hulet's response to the questions was this: "Honestly, (Coyle) hit .247 with a 24% strikeout rate in low-A and the power is a result of the stadium/league. He’s 5-7 or 5-8… and power is not part of his game. Nice prospect but in the 16-22 range for me." If this is at all true then logically wouldn't every player in low-A, "who's game does not include power", show power in Greenville? My list would have Coyle way ahead of Vitek personally. Hate to bang on the guy, but even if he is an excellent hitter, he is poor defensively and does not seem to show much power. Not sure how/why his career minor league performance equates to a top 15 ranking?
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Steve of Charlotte		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 560 12/26/11 4:01 PM	Seen Coyle several times this year, twice in Instructional. I think we have a really good prospect. Don't forget that this last season was his 1st season and they started him in a full season league at Greenville. I was surprised some. He held up pretty well and probably learned quite a bit. I bet he has a great season in Salem this year. Lots of tools for a 2nd baseman.
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johnsilver62		#8	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 350 12/26/11 10:55 PM	Just the fact so many recent drafted prospects were rated so high leads to not even putting much into this, coupled with no Wilson, Coyle. This time of the years, when all the top prospect lists come out again we are all reminded of the ones can really use as good material and the ones to light the fire with.
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wskeleton76		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 893 12/27/11 5:29 AM Veteran Member	A undersized boy keeps undervalued or even ignored before he performs really well in the high minor level.
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adiospaydro2005		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2397 12/27/11 8:42 AM Veteran Member	johnsilver62 wrote: Just the fact so many recent drafted prospects were rated so high leads to not even putting much into this, coupled with no Wilson, Coyle. This time of the years, when all the top prospect lists come out again we are all reminded of the ones can really use as good material and the ones to light the fire with. This. The fact that he has JBJ as #7 is just wrong on so many levels. Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220
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TokenWilliams		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1774 12/28/11 8:21 PM	It's important to keep in mind Prospect lists are opinions and people value different things. The "shiny new toy" is more appealing to a lot of people. I for one would much rather hod a high ceiling wild card than a low ceiling higher probability player is most instances. Hitting on a top player is infinitely more valuable than a Manny Del Carmen, Jed Lowrie, Abe Alvarez type.
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Curll84		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1491 12/28/11 10:35 PM	You just named two valuable MLB players (or, at one time) and an utter flame out. LegendofJedLowrie.com \| RoyalRooters.com
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fdrnewdeal		#13	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 27 12/29/11 8:30 AM	The point Token is making is that people value different things with respect to prospects... as in he'd rather have a guy who has a chance to be a star but could flame out rather than a guy with a high probability of making the majors, but merely as role players. My only quibble is that I don't think Lowrie belongs to the latter. He was/is a guy with a chance of being a star and a very high probability of at least making the majors, only he got derailed because of health issues. However, Token's main point is important: When we look at these lists, we've got to first try to understand who the evaluator is and how they define value relative to minor leaguers. Otherwise, it's just a list. I mean, if other people on this site saw how I rank prospects, they'd probably be shocked to see where I rank guys like Alex Wilson, Tazawa and Iglesias as I really value the likelihood of a player actually getting significant MLB service time. Finally, we should all probably learn to accept that these lists are fun for us prospect watchers, but probably irrelevent to how an organization actually values their assets. Teams probably aren't looking at talent and listing who's the best, they're probably looking at each prospect as an individual and as to how they fit within the organization in addition to what their over all potential is.
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DCRi		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1664 12/29/11 8:42 AM Veteran Member	As with all these lists, two or three years from now, most of the names here will be replaced by younger players newer to the organization and not yet tested. The upper levels of the minors will have weeded out many on this list. There is an occasional exception (Westmoreland, for example) where the talent is so obvious from the beginning that the player should be high on the prospect list. I don't think it's that obvious with most of the ones on this list.
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fdrnewdeal		#15	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 28 12/29/11 8:54 AM	I'd say Bogaerts clearly belongs near the top. I know it's in vogue to warn of Michael Almanzar, but he's so far beyond where Almanzar ever was that the comparison is irrelevant. A Xander Bogarts flalme out probably looks something like Andy Marte.
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DCB26		#16	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 35 12/29/11 10:55 AM	fdrnewdeal wrote: I'd say Bogaerts clearly belongs near the top. I know it's in vogue to warn of Michael Almanzar, but he's so far beyond where Almanzar ever was that the comparison is irrelevant. A Xander Bogarts flalme out probably looks something like Andy Marte. Two things: First of all, Marte does make an interesting comparison for Bogaerts going forward, as their numbers at the same age/level are remarkably similar. Second and however, I'm sorry to nitpick your example, beacuse I understand you just threw Marte's name out as an example, but Xander right now is not even close to what Marte was when the Sox acquired him. Marte was the 9th ranked prospect in baseball per BA after spending a full year in AAA at age 21. Xander at least has to prove he can cut it at AA before he gets into that category.
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fdrnewdeal		#17	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 29 12/29/11 11:29 AM	Marte wasn't 18 when the Red Sox Aquired him. I wasn't saying that Xander's the 11th best prospect in baseball, or whatever Marte was at 21, rather what I am saying is that for Xander to fall apart, it would be more like Marte crashing and burning than a guy who never did anything beyond a nice streak of 99 PA's. Xander IMO has one skill that will ensure he at least gets a look in the majors. 18 year olds who ISO at his level tend to make the majors. Last Edited By: fdrnewdeal 12/29/11 11:36 AM. Edited 1 time.
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DCB26		#18	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 38 12/29/11 11:40 AM	fdrnewdeal wrote: Marte wasn't 18 when the Red Sox Aquired him. I wasn't saying that Xander's the 11th best prospect in baseball, or whatever Marte was at 21, rather what I am saying is that for Xander to fall apart, it would be more like Marte crashing and burning than a guy who never did anything beyond a nice streak of 99 PA's. Xander IMO has one skill that will ensure he at least gets a look in the majors. 18 year olds who ISO at his level tend to make the majors. Agreed, things look promising for Xander, just saying that it shouldn't really surprise anyone yet if Xander doesn't get past AA, the same way Marte flaming out at 19 or 20 wouldn't have been newsworthy either.
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Slumpbuster		#19	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 53 01/04/12 8:46 AM	Adios, think you may be jumping to conclusions if you are dismissing the list solely on the ranking of Bradley. While I agree that #7 may be too high of a ranking, if someone believes that Bradley is still the player that we saw in 2009 and 2010 then a #7 ranking is perfectly reasonable. To that point, I remember reading that Gammons thinks that he is a "surefire major leaguer" and if the Fangraphs shares that opinion then the ranking is just right.
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BorisMan		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 881 01/04/12 4:02 PM Veteran Member	I'm not saying Gammo is wrong but I just looked up hyperbole in the Thesaurus and saw the following: exaggeration overstatement gammons
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