The Future of 3B in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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The Future of 3B

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jmei		#21	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1416 12/24/11 7:20 PM Forum Moderator	Miles Head doesn't have the athleticism and range to play 3B, unfortunately. Hell, most scouts don't think he'll even be average defensively at 1B.
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chavopepe2		#22	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1875 12/25/11 8:29 AM Senior Forum Moderator	jmei wrote: Miles Head doesn't have the athleticism and range to play 3B, unfortunately. Hell, most scouts don't think he'll even be average defensively at 1B. Really? Wasn't he just named the best defensive 1B in his league by BA? Where did you read the that "most scouts don't think he'll even be average defensively at 1B"? Link to BA Awards
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jmei		#23	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1417 12/25/11 11:39 AM Forum Moderator	Early reports out of Greenville had him as stiff and unathletic with the sort of body that projects to only get more so as he ages. I remember a podcast where the SP staff universally picked Jacobs as a better prospect than Head because of Head's below-average defense and below-average defensive ceiling. Updated scouting reports towards the end of the year apparently raised his defense to solid-average, but I hadn't read those when I posted and was working off what I was hearing from June/July. When the BA awards came out I remember there was a discussion here over whether they just picked Head because he was the biggest-name 1B in the league or whether his defense is legitimately good. Would Chris or any of the other scouts who have seen him care to weigh in?
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Steve Dillard		#24	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1661 12/25/11 4:24 PM	Cecchini will be the Billy Mueller to WMB's Shea Hillenbrandt
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Mhueg		#25	[url]	[-]
Posts: 886 12/25/11 5:12 PM Matt Huegel Associate Editor SoxProspects.com	I found this from the initial discussion of Head being named best defensive 1b in the league: Cem21 wrote: COrrisCrimsin wrote: Like I said before it's likely that people just saw him once or twice and said " he looks awkward, must be a future DH". like Youk. People jumped on this bandwagon style and all of a sudden it became accepted fact. My opinion of Miles Head's defense hasn't changed because of this and I have seen Head play more than "once or twice" when forming my opinion on the fact he's going to fight his body as he gets older. He isn't an athletic player and will have to watch himself from becoming too stiff as he ages. Is he a future DH? Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on how his body develops into his mid-20s and whether it affects his skills. There is a lot more effort and thought that goes into things than the assumptions you are making. Also from that thread: left coast bosox fan wrote: I decided to ask an opinion of somebody knowledgeable who sees him daily: LCBF @EvanLepler Is Head's 1B defense as good as BA's poll results would indicate ? EvanLepler Evan Lepler @LCBF I was a bit surprised that he was named top defensive first-baseman. He's decent, but not in Rizzo's class. At least not yet. Please note that Evan left the door open. ADD Comment: This is Miles' first year at a new position and he's made some positive impressions. No matter how you look at it, it's an impressive accomplishment. http://forum-soxprospects...survey-says#reply-282976 And Merry Christmas to all!
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Ben Hall		#26	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 48 12/25/11 8:42 PM	I'd love to believe that Middlebrooks's plate discipline will improve, but I can't say I'm optimistic. It's true that his strikeout rate has gone done each year, from 32.3% to 28.8% to 25.2% to 23.8% (if we just take his AA numbers from last year). It's possible this trend continues, but it already flattened a bit last year, and that's not including the 30% rate he had in Pawtucket last year. It also seems unlikely that someone who is still striking out a LOT can become someone who is in the average range. For comparison , just 13 of 145 major league hitters who qualified for the batting title last year had a rate higher than 23.8%. In addition, the walk rate last year was abysmal at 5.3% in AA. Again, as comparison, just 17 of those 145 major leaguers had a lower walk rate. It's possible that he's able to get closer to average here also, but it doesn't seem likely. When you take those two things together, it's just hard to see WMB as a star. The most likely outcome for him seems to be a player who walks rarely and strikes out two often. Even playing great defense at a premium position with good power, such a player is probably about a league average player. That's useful, but the realistic ceiling just doesn't seem too high.
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RedSox0407Champs		#27	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 52 12/25/11 10:35 PM	I gather from reading the responses that Garin Cecchini might have the best bat of the three, but Xander Bogaerts does indeed have the highest ceiling. I also gather that my image of Cecchini as a future 1b/dh is inaccurate - I had thought I had read that his defense at future at 3b was questionable. The more I think about it, the more I feel that Billy Beane is trying to extract Ryan Kalish, Garin Cecchini, and another player, perhaps a pitcher with upside from the lower minors (Raul Alcantara?) for Andrew Bailey. If that is the case, I would hope Ben would say no way, and tell Lucchino that they're better off just spending the money on Madson to close. I'm concluding that since it's still highly questionable if Middlebrooks will ever conquer his K/BB ratio, that he's the one who should inevitably by dealt. But the rub is timing. It's questionable that Youks will remain healthy enough to play 140 games at 3b in 2012 and it's questionable that the Sox would pick up his option for 2013. If that's the case, then Sox need to look at Middlebrooks to take over since Cecchini and Bogaerts certainly wouldn't be ready by then - 2014 or 2015 is a more realistic timetable for them. Therefore trading him before then would make no sense. If that's the case, I think the Sox need to hang on to all three 3b until about that 2014 - 2015 time period, and if things develop as we think they are (certainly not a given), then you'd deal the young regular Middlebrooks as partial payment for pitching help and install the guy with a great bat at 3b in Cecchini and hope that Bogaerts, who'd also be ready to make an impact, could stick at SS, or more likely be able to handle a corner OF spot. And again, if Cecchini does develop as the best pure hitter in the organization then I think it would be unwise to deal him, just like I think it would be nuts to deal a guy with an amazing ceiling like Bogaerts. Again, things don't always go off as planned, but as it stands now, I don't think the Sox, despite the surplus of 3b, should deal any of them off. And again, I don't think Vitek has the power to play 3b or corner OF. And frankly, I'm surprised that Theo spent a first round pick on him. I didn't realize that Miles Head played 3b, but with his future at 1b and the likelihood of Lavarnway winding up as DH, then Miles Head becomes trade bait given Gonzo's long-term deal. Unless Gonzo DHs down the road, I don't see a role for Head other than trade bait. Last Edited By: RedSox0407Champs 12/25/11 10:37 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Cem21		#28	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3416 12/26/11 12:55 AM Chris Mellen Director of Scouting SoxProspects.com	jmei wrote: Early reports out of Greenville had him as stiff and unathletic with the sort of body that projects to only get more so as he ages. I remember a podcast where the SP staff universally picked Jacobs as a better prospect than Head because of Head's below-average defense and below-average defensive ceiling. Updated scouting reports towards the end of the year apparently raised his defense to solid-average, but I hadn't read those when I posted and was working off what I was hearing from June/July. When the BA awards came out I remember there was a discussion here over whether they just picked Head because he was the biggest-name 1B in the league or whether his defense is legitimately good. Would Chris or any of the other scouts who have seen him care to weigh in? Miles Head's body development progression is a concern. Down at Fall Instruct, he looked even more on the large side and a couple of scouts commented that he is really going to have to work to keep himself in check as he ages. Head has shown improving hands and the ability to dig balls out of the dirt, but he is stiff and not overly athletic. If his body tightens up and gets more stiff as he matures into his mid-20s, it is going to be hard for him to maintain enough mobility and agility at first base.
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LennSakata		#29	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 316 12/26/11 12:31 PM	Cem21 wrote: jmei wrote: Early reports out of Greenville had him as stiff and unathletic with the sort of body that projects to only get more so as he ages. I remember a podcast where the SP staff universally picked Jacobs as a better prospect than Head because of Head's below-average defense and below-average defensive ceiling. Updated scouting reports towards the end of the year apparently raised his defense to solid-average, but I hadn't read those when I posted and was working off what I was hearing from June/July. When the BA awards came out I remember there was a discussion here over whether they just picked Head because he was the biggest-name 1B in the league or whether his defense is legitimately good. Would Chris or any of the other scouts who have seen him care to weigh in? Miles Head's body development progression is a concern. Down at Fall Instruct, he looked even more on the large side and a couple of scouts commented that he is really going to have to work to keep himself in check as he ages. Head has shown improving hands and the ability to dig balls out of the dirt, but he is stiff and not overly athletic. If his body tightens up and gets more stiff as he matures into his mid-20s, it is going to be hard for him to maintain enough mobility and agility at first base. Everytime I look at his profile picture I think how he resembles Vincent D'onofrio in Full Metal Jacket. I'll spare the use of the unforutunate nickname associated with that character had unless he gains 20-25 lbs of bad weight and fails miserably.
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DCB26		#30	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 26 12/26/11 1:25 PM	RedSox0407Champs wrote: If that's the case, I think the Sox need to hang on to all three 3b until about that 2014 - 2015 time period, and if things develop as we think they are (certainly not a given), then you'd deal the young regular Middlebrooks as partial payment for pitching help and install the guy with a great bat at 3b in Cecchini and hope that Bogaerts, who'd also be ready to make an impact, could stick at SS, or more likely be able to handle a corner OF spot. Let me preface this by saying I agree with almost all of your individual points, but in regards to the bolded part, I think it would be crazy to hang onto a bunch of guys, especially players in low-A, because of the possible roster composition of the major league club in 3+ years. I completely agree that if you really think Bogaerts or Cecchini is going to reach their ceiling then you hang onto them unless you get a godfather offer, but it has to be because of the inherent value of the player, not the possibility of needing a player of his (projected) position in a few years. If you project Bogaerts or Cecchini (or anyone else) to be a certain value, and you can trade him for a player of equal or greater value and fill a definite need on the major league roster, you have to make that deal. Edit: By "that deal" I'm not referring specifically to the Bailey for 3rd baseman+ deal being discussed. Last Edited By: DCB26 12/26/11 1:32 PM. Edited 2 times.
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Steve Dillard		#31	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1662 12/26/11 4:36 PM	Interesting between the mention of Vitek here, and Iglesias on the other thread (where they mentioned no one outside the Sox org thinks he can hit), I wonder who was championing for them when the Sox invested big in them (high first rounder and 8 mill for Iglesias). Are those guys still here (Shipley and Theo) or are those they more highly regarded by the Cubs.
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RedSox0407Champs		#32	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 53 12/26/11 11:40 PM	DCB26 wrote: RedSox0407Champs wrote: If that's the case, I think the Sox need to hang on to all three 3b until about that 2014 - 2015 time period, and if things develop as we think they are (certainly not a given), then you'd deal the young regular Middlebrooks as partial payment for pitching help and install the guy with a great bat at 3b in Cecchini and hope that Bogaerts, who'd also be ready to make an impact, could stick at SS, or more likely be able to handle a corner OF spot. Let me preface this by saying I agree with almost all of your individual points, but in regards to the bolded part, I think it would be crazy to hang onto a bunch of guys, especially players in low-A, because of the possible roster composition of the major league club in 3+ years. I completely agree that if you really think Bogaerts or Cecchini is going to reach their ceiling then you hang onto them unless you get a godfather offer, but it has to be because of the inherent value of the player, not the possibility of needing a player of his (projected) position in a few years. If you project Bogaerts or Cecchini (or anyone else) to be a certain value, and you can trade him for a player of equal or greater value and fill a definite need on the major league roster, you have to make that deal. Edit: By "that deal" I'm not referring specifically to the Bailey for 3rd baseman+ deal being discussed. What you're saying makes a lot of sense. I think that injuries are the most likely thing that would hold back Garin Cecchini. And it's possible Bogaerts doesn't develop as imagined, but I believe that the odds are pretty good that both of them are the real deal and stand a good chance of being better than Middlebrooks. That said, you're right - if it were a deal, it would have to be for an impact pitcher or like I said before, a young all-star type player (thinking of when Justin Upton was being dangled). When I say pitcher, I certainly don't mean Andrew Bailey, and I don't mean the John Danks of the world, nor do I mean the Gio Gonzalez's of the world, either. I mean an ace type pitcher - obviously, if Hernandez became available, you could part with Cecchini or Bogaerts as part of the package in a deal, but otherwise I'd hold on to them. What's interesting is that Bailey has been mentioned before and now Soria of KC has been mentioned - if Cecchini or Bogaerts are part of the deal, then that tells me that the team is definitely headed in the wrong direction - I don't think you trade that kind of upside for a closer, especially one coming off two seasons of injury or another one who lost his job at some point last season. Especially when you can obtain a closer via free agency and only give up money instead of guys who can one day play for you, produce big, and cost little (relatively speaking) to pay.
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Curll84		#33	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1484 12/27/11 9:54 AM	I wonder if Pablo Sandoval would be available. Youk for Pablo. Sandoval takes over DH in 2013, WMB takes over 3B. LegendofJedLowrie.com \| RoyalRooters.com
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Sibby Sisti		#34	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 643 12/27/11 10:04 AM	What incentive would SF have to trade a 26 yr old with a career BA over .300 who has averaged over 20 HRs a year for a 33 yr old with a career .289 BA who is breaking down and near the end of his contract? And, with a salary of .05m vs 12m for 2012. Last Edited By: Sibby Sisti 12/27/11 10:12 AM. Edited 1 time.
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jmei		#35	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1418 12/27/11 10:17 AM Forum Moderator	Because Sandoval's OBPs the last three years are .357, .323, and .387 whereas Youkilis' are .373, .411, and .413? That said, no way SF does that deal because Sandoval is under team control for longer. If they traded for Youkilis, they would move him to 1B and we could get a pitcher in return (probably Cain).
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Sibby Sisti		#36	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 644 12/27/11 10:31 AM	Right. And Sandoval has only had one year of arbitration elegibility. No way the Giants move The Panda straight up for Youk.
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Bury the Hammer		#37	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1596 12/27/11 1:03 PM Veteran Member	And, in fairness, SF might be one of the few teams left dumb enough to care about batting average.
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Curll84		#38	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1485 12/27/11 1:35 PM	And, as far as I know, Brian Sabean is alive and well, still running the team. Sandoval has had troubles with the organization, has an injury history, he is not a 3B long term, and Youk will outperform Sandoval over the next two years. You would have to add an additional piece, but nothing major. The Giants ranked 29th in runs, 29th in OBP, and 26th in SLG. San Fran has money, that isn't the issue. They need offense. LegendofJedLowrie.com \| RoyalRooters.com
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fdrnewdeal		#39	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 22 12/27/11 2:08 PM	Believe it or not, Pablo is actually a damn solid defender. There's no way SF gives him up for a more expensive, better offensive players with health issues. The plan seems like it should be to cross our fingers and hope that Youkilis can give Boston 125-130 games for 2012 and then decide whether or not to extend him for 2013 with an eye on having he and Gonzalez split 1b/DH.
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Curll84		#40	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1486 12/27/11 2:19 PM	fdrnewdeal wrote: Believe it or not, Pablo is actually a damn solid defender. .6 dWar is "damn solid"? LegendofJedLowrie.com \| RoyalRooters.com Last Edited By: Curll84 12/27/11 2:22 PM. Edited 1 time.
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