Will Middlebrooks in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

0 Points

Will Middlebrooks

Author	Comment
Serit	Will Middlebrooks		Lead	[-]
Rookie Posts: 91 12/13/11 5:08 PM	Tags : None So, Will Middlebrooks is (here, at least) our top prospect. That is why I was so alarmed to see how high his babip has been the last few years in the minors. 2008: Lowell--------59g 226pa .380babip 32.3k% .254/.298/.368 2009: Greenville--103g 427pa .372babip 28.8k% .265/.349/.404 2010: Salem------114g 481pa .348babip 25.2k% .275/.328/.438 2011: Portland-----96g 397pa .363babip 23.9k% .302/.345/.520 (source: fangraphs.com) Taken together with his K rates, Middlebrooks' high babip indicates to me that he will not be able to sustain an already somewhat mediocre batting average/obp in the majors. It is great that Middlebrooks has consistently improved while moving up a level each year. But that could also mask really significant concerns over his ability to get on base/hit at the major league level. I took a look at the highest K percentages in baseball last year over at fangraphs, and the only guys with K percentages over 20 whose 2011 seasons I'd want to see repeated on the Sox had either an iso quite a bit over .200 and a high bb% or a hugely inflated babip (or in a lot of cases, both). I guess we are banking on Middlebrooks getting his iso up to that .230+ mark where guys like Willingham and Pena are--which might be realistic, given that his iso was .218 last year. Problem is, guys like Willingham and Pena also take a lot of walks. Middlebrooks doesn't. Count me concerned. helpful links: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa390443&position=3B http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Guidas		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2372 12/13/11 5:12 PM	I want to be wrong, but I think Middlebrooks is, best case, Brandon Inge with a little more pop. If the front office believes this as well should leverage the hype/GM Lust for Middlebrooks and package him for a good pitcher (insert Gio Gonzalez or better here). Like I said, I want to be wrong on this and maybe he'll show us OBP at .350 or better this year and prove that I don't know what I've been looking at.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
mpaxisa		#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 283 12/13/11 5:16 PM	I'm not the biggest WMB fan in the world, but any decent prospect should have a high BABIP in the minors, in the .350+ range. Most pitching prospects have high ground ball rates as well, north of 50%, even if they end up fly ball pitchers in MLB. The minor league baseline for BABIP, LOB%, GB%, etc. is very, very different than it is for MLB. A high minor league BABIP is probably the last reason I would worry about WMB's ability to hit for average and get on base in the show.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Serit		#3	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 92 12/13/11 5:33 PM	mpaxisa wrote: I'm not the biggest WMB fan in the world, but any decent prospect should have a high BABIP in the minors, in the .350+ range. Most pitching prospects have high ground ball rates as well, north of 50%, even if they end up fly ball pitchers in MLB. The minor league baseline for BABIP, LOB%, GB%, etc. is very, very different than it is for MLB. A high minor league BABIP is probably the last reason I would worry about WMB's ability to hit for average and get on base in the show. Even taking away the BABIP stuff, there is still the K rate. Hitters with K rates of 20%+ better both hit for power and walk a whole bunch. I suppose the hope is that Middlebrooks learns to walk somewhere between 8 and 10% of the time, but his walk rate of 5.3% last year and 7.1% the year before worry me. I guess I can see the power, but not the on-base ability. And without good contact (aka with a high k%), you need both of those. Also, Will Middlebrooks had the 6th highest babip in the Eastern League last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=5&qual=y&type=1&season=2011 And the 17th highest babip in the Carolina League the year before that. http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=9&qual=y&type=1&season=2010 Last Edited By: Serit 12/13/11 5:41 PM. Edited 1 time.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
rodstero4		#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 179 12/13/11 7:25 PM	Serit wrote: Also, Will Middlebrooks had the 6th highest babip in the Eastern League last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=5&qual=y&type=1&season=2011 And the 17th highest babip in the Carolina League the year before that. http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=9&qual=y&type=1&season=2010 Ok, time to stop this conversation for a second. You're misunderstanding how babip works for hitters. For pitchers, typically, babip levels out to .300 or whatever the league average is. For hitters, their babip typically levels out to.....whatever their babip skill is. For example, Ichiro has a career babip of .351 in over 8,000 MLB at bats. Jeff Mathis has a career .249 babip. I realize these are extreme cases, but the point is, some hitters are better at making the balls they put in play become hits. (The most simple answer is they hit more line drives.) As a matter of fact, that Middlebrooks has had a high babip his entire minor league career argues that it's his true skill level, and not a SSS aberration. All that said, the strikeouts, paired with lack of walks, scare the crap out of me. I've seen too many players with this profile end up as AAAA players at best. So the discussions fine, but babip has little to do with it.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
sarasoxer		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 202 12/13/11 7:59 PM	rodstero4 wrote: Serit wrote: Also, Will Middlebrooks had the 6th highest babip in the Eastern League last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=5&qual=y&type=1&season=2011 And the 17th highest babip in the Carolina League the year before that. http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=9&qual=y&type=1&season=2010 Ok, time to stop this conversation for a second. You're misunderstanding how babip works for hitters. For pitchers, typically, babip levels out to .300 or whatever the league average is. For hitters, their babip typically levels out to.....whatever their babip skill is. For example, Ichiro has a career babip of .351 in over 8,000 MLB at bats. Jeff Mathis has a career .249 babip. I realize these are extreme cases, but the point is, some hitters are better at making the balls they put in play become hits. (The most simple answer is they hit more line drives.) As a matter of fact, that Middlebrooks has had a high babip his entire minor league career argues that it's his true skill level, and not a SSS aberration. All that said, the strikeouts, paired with lack of walks, scare the crap out of me. I've seen too many players with this profile end up as AAAA players at best. So the discussions fine, but babip has little to do with it. On board with rodstero4. I have always thought that bapip was too often over-weighted toward chance in this forum and under-weighted factoring skill. I'm guessing without any statistical data (if it exists), that someone like Harmon Killebrew (relatively low career BA) had a high bapip. If he got a pitch to hit, it was likely to be put fairly in play and with prejudice.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Yirmiyahu		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3763 12/13/11 8:06 PM Forum Moderator	mpaxisa wrote: I'm not the biggest WMB fan in the world, but any decent prospect should have a high BABIP in the minors, in the .350+ range. Most pitching prospects have high ground ball rates as well, north of 50%, even if they end up fly ball pitchers in MLB. The minor league baseline for BABIP, LOB%, GB%, etc. is very, very different than it is for MLB. A high minor league BABIP is probably the last reason I would worry about WMB's ability to hit for average and get on base in the show. I agree with this. But the concern isn't his high BABIP, it's his awful K/BB numbers. There are no good hitters in baseball with plate discipline numbers as bad as WMB's. There are a number of former top prospects who lit up the minors with awful plate discipline numbers, and they usually flame out when they reach the majors. What WMB has going for him is that he's young, he has the tools, scouts love him, and his 3B defense is quite good. I'm optimistic about him improving the discipline, but it's disconcerting that the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. His K/BB was 2.56 in Greenville, 3.46 in Salem, 4.52 in Portland, and 6.00 in Pawtucket (SSS). That fact has been masked by the high BABIP's and the improving power numbers. ADD: Matt Kemp is the only active major leaguer with a K rate of 21.7% or higher, a BB rate below 8%, and a wOBA over .337. Last Edited By: Yirmiyahu 12/13/11 8:28 PM. Edited 2 times.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
joshv02		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 961 12/14/11 8:31 AM	Yirmiyahu wrote: ADD: Matt Kemp is the only active major leaguer with a K rate of 21.7% or higher, a BB rate below 8%, and a wOBA over .337. List of players since 1990 with a career K%>20.0001, BB%<8.0001, w/OBA >.320 Chris Davis Wily Mo Pena Austin Jackson Josh Phelps Marcus Thames Pete Incaviglia Preston Wilson Ryan Raburn Jeff Baker Matt Kemp Russ Davis Mike Jacobs Pedro Munoz Geoff Jenkins Andres Galarraga Nelson Cruz Junior Felix Carlos Gonzalez Matthew LeCroy Michael Morse Cody Ross Scott Hairston Glenallen Hill Alfonso Soriano Rico Brogna Kevin Young Todd Hollandsworth
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Ben Hall		#8	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 47 12/22/11 1:33 PM	I've had these same concerns. I'd really like to hear some of the staff comment on this. What are the staff expecting from Middlebrooks? A solid regular? Or a star? Maybe the issue is with me: my impression from his ranking and the chatter is that people are expecting a star. I'm with several of the people who have commented in this thread--it's almost impossible to be a star with plate discipline numbers like Middlebrooks has.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
amfox1		#9	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9043 12/22/11 2:39 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Ben Hall wrote: I've had these same concerns. I'd really like to hear some of the staff comment on this. What are the staff expecting from Middlebrooks? A solid regular? Or a star? Maybe the issue is with me: my impression from his ranking and the chatter is that people are expecting a star. I'm with several of the people who have commented in this thread--it's almost impossible to be a star with plate discipline numbers like Middlebrooks has. WMB has the ceiling of an all-star. He could hit .260-.280 with 20-25 home runs and Gold Glove defense at third base. In other words, he could be Scott Rolen, or not. I think he will end up as a solid regular and occasional all-star, rather than a perennial all-star. I'd be very happy with that.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
joshv02		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 985 12/22/11 2:57 PM	Scott Rolen has played 16 seasons. He has gotten on base > 34% of the time in 12 of them. By the time he was 21, Rolen had more BBs than SOs. I know you weren't really trying to compare the two, but that is the major difference (beyond the hof career): When Rolen started slugging below .450 regularly, he was still a valuable player.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Cem21		#11	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3413 12/22/11 3:24 PM Chris Mellen Director of Scouting SoxProspects.com	My projection of Will Middlebrooks is that he is going to round into a long-term starter at third base, with the potential to put up above-average offensive peak seasons and make a couple of All-Star teams. Similar batting average numbers to what Amfox listed and the power to approach a high of 30 home runs during those peak seasons. Defensively, I don't know if he'll get into the elite category, but definitely an above-average third baseman that will make a lot of plays and sure up the position. There isn't a hitter in the system right now who hits the ball harder or with more backspin that Middlebrooks. His power to all fields is very easy and he's beginning to full understand what he can do as a baseball player. With more experience, I think he'll continue to learn and fine tune his strike zone, while getting better against advanced breaking balls with the repetition. Middlebrooks looked pretty good against secondary offerings in Double-A, but was more hesitant and out front in Triple-A the times I saw him. I'm expecting him to make the adjustment after getting the first experience with Pawtucket at the tail end of this year. One of the big improvements Middlebrooks made in 2012 was more consistency with staying back and looking up-the-middle for extended stretches. That is when he is at his best and driving balls hard from the right-center field gap to down the left field line.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
amfox1		#12	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9044 12/22/11 3:41 PM Senior Forum Moderator	joshv02 wrote: Scott Rolen has played 16 seasons. He has gotten on base > 34% of the time in 12 of them. By the time he was 21, Rolen had more BBs than SOs. I know you weren't really trying to compare the two, but that is the major difference (beyond the hof career): When Rolen started slugging below .450 regularly, he was still a valuable player. I was not directly comparing the two, although he is the SP.com "comparison" for WMB. Both are big 3Bs, with excellent defense and power. Plate discipline is a difference, but then again there is no perfect comparable. Rolen would be a ceiling, not a median. Chris and I are of a similar mindset on WMB. (FYI, I probably haven't seen WMB play as much as Chris but I have seen him play quite a bit) Hope this helps.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
joshv02		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 986 12/22/11 3:47 PM	Totaly get it. But that is the big problem: if he can't practice better discipline (and I assume he can, actually), then he moves from being a solid starter/potential all-star player to cut with just a slight downtick in power.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Sibby Sisti		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 641 12/23/11 9:04 AM	Excellent discussion on the 3B situation in a thread started by RedSoc0407champs. Mods may want to consider merging this one. IMO tyhird base seems like a strength of the system now, particularly with Bogaerts projected for the hot corner in the future. WMB is close with Youk nearing the end of his contract. Cecchini and Vitek provide some optimisim for that position in the future.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
Boomerangs		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 343 12/24/11 12:47 PM	Every prospect has flaws. It would seem that consistent excellence is rare in the baseball world. Maybe we are a tad light on the top end of the list but with lots of A ball and recent draft picks potentially emerging in 2012 we will see a major stud or 2 rise to the top in the coming year. A Cecchini, Bogaerts, Barnes, Swihart, Coyle ...etc.
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote
norbit14		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4038 12/24/11 1:41 PM Veteran Member	Boomerangs wrote: Every prospect has flaws. It would seem that consistent excellence is rare in the baseball world. Maybe we are a tad light on the top end of the list but with lots of A ball and recent draft picks potentially emerging in 2012 we will see a major stud or 2 rise to the top in the coming year. A Cecchini, Bogaerts, Barnes, Swihart, Coyle ...etc. Definitely. I would put my money on Cecchini, Barnes and Bogaerts as the top candidates to go to "elite" level prospect possibly the three depending the health issue, mainly with Cecchini. Thats one of the reasons I wouldn't trade either Bogaerts or Cecchini, a year from now both could be elite level prospects who could be part of a trade that nets the Red Sox a star pitcher. Its fun to speculate on this things, hehe. Am Dominican and you??
Interact My Recent Posts	Reply Quote

<< Previous Topic Next Topic >>

Add Reply

Yuku free message boards

SoxProspects.com

SoxProspects Links

Will Middlebrooks

Will Middlebrooks