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Posts: 1762
12/20/11 12:22 PM
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FenwayTheHardWay wrote:The Bill James projection system is notoriously optimistic. And projecting major league numbers from minor league stats is a questionable practice in and of itself. I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers.
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Posts: 3365
12/20/11 1:34 PM
Norm in Oregon wrote:FenwayTheHardWay wrote:The Bill James projection system is notoriously optimistic. And projecting major league numbers from minor league stats is a questionable practice in and of itself. I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers.You know, I would have said the same thing a while back. But James' was the only system that came close to predicting Ellsbury's breakout albeit a year early. It is difficult getting any sort of major league projection out of minor league numbers. That said, Lavarnway's power and patience are quite real. Those should serve him well in whatever ML career he does have. I honestly think that most teams in the AL would fall all over themselves to stick him in the DH slot right now.
Posts: 1763
12/20/11 5:25 PM
FenwayTheHardWay wrote:Norm in Oregon wrote:... So a a system known for predicting breakout performances is accurate because it predicted one breakout performance? In the wrong year? Really? ...
Norm in Oregon wrote:...
Posts: 16
12/20/11 8:15 PM
You really think Shoppach is a step down from Varitek? You can't mean that Salty's the weak offensive link there. Five AL "catchers" with at least 200 at-bats had a higher OPS than him last year, and I use "catchers" because that includes Napoli and Victor Martinez.
Posts: 326
12/21/11 5:41 AM
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12/21/11 5:47 AM
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12/21/11 7:32 AM
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12/21/11 9:03 AM
Posts: 42
12/21/11 1:39 PM
Boomerangs wrote: We know Shoppach was signed. We do not know if the Redsox think he's better than Lavarnway right now. It's entirely possible that Shoppach starts the year over Lavarnway to keep his service time under control, and when he can be brought up without wasting a year of control, they bring him up. What options will the sub .200 hitting Shoppach have then? He probably waits in Pawtucket as an injury back up or is traded. That scenario is at least as plausible as Shoppach being our platoon catcher for the year.
Posts: 359
12/21/11 1:59 PM
Boomerangs wrote:We know Shoppach was signed. We do not know if the Redsox think he's better than Lavarnway right now. It's entirely possible that Shoppach starts the year over Lavarnway to keep his service time under control, and when he can be brought up without wasting a year of control, they bring him up. What options will the sub .200 hitting Shoppach have then? He probably waits in Pawtucket as an injury back up or is traded. That scenario is at least as plausible as Shoppach being our platoon catcher for the year.
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12/21/11 2:13 PM
Posts: 3799
12/21/11 3:15 PM
SoxSail wrote:It's not like there won't be injuries to Ortiz, Salty and Shoppach that will have Lavarnway up earlier than expected. Or if Ryan is catching well, and tearing the cover off the ball, they can afford to drop Shop and plug in Lavarnway at some point. On the other hand, if they can give him regular work in Pawtucket AND avoid paying him a few million extra as a Super 2, that's a win-win for the future.
Posts: 3411
12/21/11 5:10 PM
Yirmiyahu wrote: If all 3 catchers are playing well, but the Sox want to make a trade at the deadline, Salty or Shoppach gets traded and Lavarnway gets called up.
Posts: 328
12/21/11 9:38 PM
Yirmiyahu wrote:SoxSail wrote:It's not like there won't be injuries to Ortiz, Salty and Shoppach that will have Lavarnway up earlier than expected. Or if Ryan is catching well, and tearing the cover off the ball, they can afford to drop Shop and plug in Lavarnway at some point. On the other hand, if they can give him regular work in Pawtucket AND avoid paying him a few million extra as a Super 2, that's a win-win for the future.This. All of this. If there's an injury (Ortiz/Salty/Shoppach), Lavarnway gets called up. If Shoppach struggles and is cut, Lavarnway gets called up. If he forces his way onto the roster by mashing in AAA, Lavarnway gets called up. If all 3 catchers are playing well, but the Sox want to make a trade at the deadline, Salty or Shoppach gets traded and Lavarnway gets called up.There's so many different ways he can make the roster, the fact that Shoppach will start the year as the backup catcher is really not a big deal even if you're the biggest Lavarnway fan in the world.
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12/21/11 9:42 PM
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12/23/11 11:12 PM
Shoppach hasn't hit above .214 for 3 years and we are supposed to be ok with that?
Posts: 49
12/24/11 12:27 AM
Boomerangs wrote: I think the Redsox "expect" Lavarnway emerging to contribute at the mlb level before mid year. They probably think that is more likely than not. I don't think they "expect" Shoppach as being their back up catcher all year.
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12/24/11 1:18 AM
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12/24/11 10:35 AM
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