Lowrie and Weiland traded for melancon in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Lowrie and Weiland traded for melancon

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templeUsox		#41	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16915 12/14/11 2:29 PM Veteran Member Podcast Panelist	DCB26 wrote: Nothing in Melancon's stats really stand out aside from maybe his GB%, which at 55.5% is pretty solid. Per Fangraphs the fastball averages 92.7 but his power-curve sounds like his out pitch, it comes in pretty hard, averaging 83. He's got a good curveball- very good even. And a bad changeup. That's as good an explanation as any for why he struggles vs LHH's and succeeds against RHH's.
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amfox1		#42	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9018 12/14/11 2:30 PM Senior Forum Moderator	I've now had a bit more than an hour to digest this. 1. Lowrie has been on the block and it is apparent that his value is lower than we think, likely because of his inability to remain healthy and his troubles against RHPs. He was being shopped all over, so it is no surprise that he was traded. 2. Melancon is likely the 8th inning guy in BOS, not the closer. Good GB rate, good against RHHs. Projects decently to the AL East and still is young enough to improve. Five years of control is huge. 3. I think it would have been fair to give up a lesser pitcher than Weiland, but we really don't have much in the upper minors to trade - Doubront/Bowden are out of options and Pimentel/Britton are huge risks. That leaves Weiland, Wilson and Tazawa. Of the three, I think I'd most rather give up Weiland. He really had a deer-in-the-headlights look about him down the stretch and was likely slated for the bullpen down the line. I think both Wilson and Tazawa are bullpen arms also, but I have less faith in Weiland, given how he crumpled down the stretch. 4. Not having much upper level pitching depth in the system probably caused a slight overpay. I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either. I do think we bought high and sold low.
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grkgodofwalks		#43	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 129 12/14/11 2:41 PM	I really do not like this move. In the NL he might have been a late bloomer but, from what I recall in the AL he wasn't that effective. Bleh. Lowrie was better than that. Seems like an overpayment. Shrugs.
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Guidas		#44	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2375 12/14/11 2:42 PM	jdb wrote: Guidas, are those stats just for 2011 or career? Overall he seemed to have a pretty good season last year and is under control for 5 more seasons...right? Looking at his home/away splits he had a run lower ERA on the road last year. Maybe a move outside on the hitters park (HR) in Houston will help. He had a GB% of 56% last year too. On surface it seems like Weiland and Lowrie is an overpay but Im going to give it the benefit of the doubt. Lets not forget John Axford was a NYY throw away also. 3 year stats. I think he's a decent pick-up, but a 7th inning type, no closer.
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BosSportsFan		#45	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 84 12/14/11 2:44 PM	FenwayTheHardWay wrote: BosSportsFan wrote: Guidas wrote: I would think for EITHER Lowrie or Weiland I do this, but looks like an overpay to me, esp given Weiland could be as good a pen arm as this guy. We'll see... This. Actually... Guidas wrote: I would think for EITHER Lowrie or Weiland I do this, but looks like an overpay to me, esp given Weiland could be as good a pen arm as this guy. We'll see... That. I liked the idea of Weiland out of the pen too but it's not like he's some fastball/slider monster where it's clear his stuff is cut out for short stint relief (like some other pitchers I could name). In a couple years Lowrie could injure himself out of the league and Weiland might never emerge as more than the 10th guy on a staff. We'll see. Actually... Guidas wrote: I would think for EITHER Lowrie or Weiland I do this, but looks like an overpay to me, esp *given Weiland could be* as good a pen arm as this guy.** We'll see... This
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stats39		#46	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 145 12/14/11 2:47 PM	I think I like the deal enough, but as both J Heyman and Pete Abraham have tweeted, Melacon does not project to be a closer. I still think the Sox end up with Madson. Where else is he going to go.
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BosSportsFan		#47	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 85 12/14/11 2:49 PM	templeUsox wrote: He's got a good curveball- very good even. And a bad changeup. That's as good an explanation as any for why he struggles vs LHH's and succeeds against RHH's. So he's Michael Bowden?
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Guidas		#48	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2376 12/14/11 2:51 PM	My assessment of Weiland was based on the fact that he seemed better suited for the pen, and the fact that he was a closer at Notre Dame so likely had a head for it. Like others said, his stuff looked like it would do better in one inning samples. I saw Melancon in the minors and when he was with the Yankees. At one time he was billed as "the next Mariano" but his stuff looked like typical 7th inning guy to me. Closing in Houston to me last year means about as much as if he closed for Pawtucket. If that. I'm willing to give the guy a fair shake, but I deeply hope he's not projected as the Sox closer starting the season.
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Union4Sox		#49	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 559 12/14/11 2:55 PM	Maybe it wasn't the perfect deal, but Lowrie hasn't been able to stay healthy for his entire tenure with the Sox. At this point, he isn't going to be starting unless Youk goes down (which granted, isn't as unlikely a scenario as we all would hope). The Sox have Aviles as a solid utility option and I imagine they'd flirt with Iglesias as SS if Scutaro goes down for an extended period of time. I don't think they sacrificed much in so far as depth on their bench. As for Weiland, I never was that impresed with him. He was never going to be a starter on the Sox unless, again, someone went down. Maybe he would have been a solid relief option, but that is yet to be determined. And even if he does indeed develop into a decent back of the rotation starter, was he ever going to do that in the AL East? Upgrading the bullpen is one of the toughest tasks in baseball. Good relievers have a short shelf life and as we all know, are very tough to project when they move from one situation to another. One of the biggest liabilities, at least IMO, of the Red Sox last season was their bullpen. Papelbon, Bard and Aceves were used way too often. It was crucial they add some decent arms and by all accounts, this is a better option than trading a few blue chip prospects for Andrew "my arm could fall off at anytime" Bailey. Plus, he's only 26. Last Edited By: Union4Sox 12/14/11 3:38 PM. Edited 2 times.
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joshv02		#50	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 965 12/14/11 2:58 PM	BosSportsFan wrote: templeUsox wrote: He's got a good curveball- very good even. And a bad changeup. That's as good an explanation as any for why he struggles vs LHH's and succeeds against RHH's. So he's Michael Bowden? He is what is Michael Bowden (and, for that matter, Kyle Weiland) aspires to be.
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Guidas		#51	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2377 12/14/11 3:06 PM	Union4Sox wrote: Maybe it wasn't the perfect deal, but Lowrie hasn't been able to stay healthy for his entire tenure with the Sox. At this point, he isn't going to be starting unless Youk goes down (which granted, isn't as unlikely a scenario as we all would hope). The Sox have Aviles as a solid utility option and I imagine they'd flirt with Iglesias as SS if Scutaro goes down for an extended period of time. I don't think they sacrificed much in so far as depth on their bench. As for Weiland, I never was that impresed with him. He was never going to be a starter on the Sox unless, again, someone went down. Maybe he would have been a solid relief option, but that is yet to be determined. And even if he does indeed develop into a decent back of the rotation starter, was he ever going to do that in the AL East? Upgrading the bullpen is one of the toughest tasks in baseball. Good relievers have a short shelf life and as we all know, are very tough to project when they move from one situation to another. One of the biggest liabilities, at least IMO, of the Red Sox last season was their bullpen. Papelbon, Bard and Aceves were ridden way too hard. It was crucial they add some decent arms and by all accounts, this is a better option than trading a few blue chip prospects for Andrew "my arm could fall of at anytime" Bailey. Plus, he's only 26. Hold your tongue. This could still happen. Heck, maybe Melacon is one of the "blue chips" to go to Oakland.
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norbit14		#52	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3995 12/14/11 3:07 PM Veteran Member	Good job of getting a late innings reliever for a back up infielder and a garbage innings reliever. Good for Lowrie now he gets a full season of ABs IF he can stay healthy. Am Dominican and you??
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Guidas		#53	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2378 12/14/11 3:12 PM	And here is the NY Times piece calling him the next Mariano Rivera. Money quote: "Melancon, 23, is the reliever most likely to succeed Mariano Rivera as the Yankees’ closer, and he could make an impact sooner." That was in 2008. Good times. And Yankee fans I know wonder why I refer to Montero and the Killer Bs as "Lavarnway and maybe one good pitcher. And Lavarnway can actually catch." Compared to Montero he's Johnny Bench.
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joshv02		#54	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 966 12/14/11 3:13 PM	That quote doesn't call him the next Mariano Rivera.
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Guidas		#55	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2379 12/14/11 3:19 PM	joshv02 wrote: That quote doesn't call him the next Mariano Rivera. Next as in successor. You use that name that way, the implication is pretty clear. Meanwhile, for ESPN Insiders, Keith Law seems to agree with those of use who think the Sox dealt one player too many for "the man most likely to succeed Mariano Rivera as the Yankees' closer." Excerpt from Law: "Unless the Red Sox know something we don't about Lowrie's medicals, this looks like a real loss of value for them. They've given up more production than they've received, and the ripple effect, pushing Daniel Bard to the rotation, is a high-risk move that I don't believe is going to work. "
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Mhueg		#56	[url]	[-]
Posts: 872 12/14/11 3:25 PM Matt Huegel Senior Editor SoxProspects.com	Melancon throws a 92-95 mph fastball (sitting at 94 mph) with above-average movement, resulting in a high groundball rate. His 81-84 mph power curveball is described by at least one AL evaluator as a “double-plus” offering, meaning it is an elite offering that is his primary out-pitch. He’s a long-limbed pitcher who is able to generate deception with his delivery, and the pitcher’s makeup (based on his work ethic and mental toughness) also are considered positive attributes. Alex Speier
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DonCaballero		#57	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1318 12/14/11 3:25 PM	norbit14 wrote: Good job of getting a late innings reliever for a back up infielder and a garbage innings reliever. My thoughts exactly, very well put.
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Union4Sox		#58	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 560 12/14/11 3:42 PM	Guidas wrote: joshv02 wrote: That quote doesn't call him the next Mariano Rivera. Next as in successor. You use that name that way, the implication is pretty clear. Meanwhile, for ESPN Insiders, Keith Law seems to agree with those of use who think the Sox dealt one player too many for "the man most likely to succeed Mariano Rivera as the Yankees' closer." Excerpt from Law: "Unless the Red Sox know something we don't about Lowrie's medicals, this looks like a real loss of value for them. They've given up more production than they've received, and the ripple effect, pushing Daniel Bard to the rotation, is a high-risk move that I don't believe is going to work. " The only way this matters to me is if someone wants to present evidence that Weiland + Lowrie could have brought back a better player/reliever than Melancon. I don't know if I buy this argument, Law is dealing too much in the abstract. This is based all on perceived value, not on the practical value Weiland/Lowrie have to the Red Sox. NEITHER are projected as starters in 2012, and w/ Aviles in the mix, it wouldn't be fair to call Lowrie the primary back-up option as far utility players go. And I see 0 chance Weiland breaks spring training on the 25 man roster unless he blows people away in Spring training. So again, what are people griping about? Btw, I don't think the Sox make a firm decision about Bard until they figure out who the closer is going to be. my comments in bold. For whatever reason, my browser is a mess and won't allow me to post outside of quoted text. Apologies. Last Edited By: Union4Sox 12/14/11 3:45 PM. Edited 1 time.
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totheights		#59	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 189 12/14/11 3:50 PM	Why is no one mentioning that Mark Melancon is only 6 months older than Kyle Weiland?
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Plus Plus Intangibles		#60	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 312 12/14/11 3:55 PM	totheights wrote: Why is no one mentioning that Mark Melancon is only 6 months older than Kyle Weiland? Because he's closer to 18 months older. There should be a thread where everyone gets to submit one last STP pun. Last Edited By: Plus Plus Intangibles 12/14/11 3:58 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Lowrie and Weiland traded for melancon