Sox Offseason (rumors) Thread in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Sox Offseason (rumors) Thread

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Yirmiyahu		#561	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3758 12/13/11 11:44 AM Forum Moderator	BigPapisMangoSalsa wrote: Regarding the AAVs of extensions like Gonzalez and Beckett, the reasoning was that if those deals were announced prior to (lets use Gonzalez) the start of the 2011 season, then it would have been added to that upcoming season's AAV for luxury tax purposes. Because the extension didn't actually "begin" until this year, 2012, it wasn't figured at the end of last season's AAV. Had either extension actually increased what the player received in that year (which it would before the season) then it would have been calculated at the season ending payroll for luxury tax numbers. You're not making your case here. This vesting option is like the Gonzalez/Beckett extensions, where the additional money doesn't affect the current year's salary. Lackey's 2012 payroll will be $15.25M regardless of the 2015 option year. Like the extensions, the 2015 option is just an add-on that comes into play after the initial 5-year contract runs out.
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amfox1		#562	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9006 12/13/11 11:55 AM Senior Forum Moderator	According to my calculations, the Red Sox have $19.10mm to fill the final five spots (three bullpen, backup OF and Ortiz). If $13mm goes to Ortiz, that would leave $6.10mm for the other four spots. If Doubront, Atchison, Bowden and McDonald fill the four spots, the Red Sox would have approx. $4mm to upgrade the roster during the year and remain below the threshold (assuming no net trades out). Keep in mind that Dice-K should be ready to pitch by June. EDIT: apples-to-apples with bigpupp, I show approx. $2.25mm additional room, which is essentially the difference between Lackey at $16.5mm vs. $13.8mm. Last Edited By: amfox1 12/13/11 11:57 AM. Edited 1 time.
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jmei		#563	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1370 12/13/11 12:08 PM Forum Moderator	Bradford of WEEI has been reporting that it will lower Lackey's AAV: His deal with Boston included a vesting option at the major league minimum (currently $414,000) for a sixth season if he required season-ending surgery on a pre-existing elbow condition. ‬Such an operation‪ would trigger the option, thus making the contract a six-year, $83 million deal — thus meaning that, for luxury tax purposes, his contract is valued at roughly $13.8 million rather than $16.5 million, something that could mean millions of dollars in luxury tax relief to the Sox. ‬ MacPherson of the ProJo is also reporting that it would lower Lackey's AAV: Five players on the Red Sox payroll stand to make more than $10 million next season, as calculated for luxury-tax purposes: Adrian Gonzalez ($22 million); Carl Crawford ($20.3 million); Josh Beckett ($17 million); John Lackey ($13.8 million); and Kevin Youkilis ($10.3 million). That adds up to almost $83 million. (Because Lackey is undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox now can treat his contract as a six-year, $83 million contract rather than a five-year, $82.5 million contract -- shaving $2 million off his luxury-tax hit.) Finally, Speier, in his luxury-tax breakdown, has Lackey only counting for $13.8m AAV: Granted, this is one of those tricky CBA things that even the best reporters and fans miss, but I've yet to read anything which indicates that Lackey's AAV would NOT be reduced, even though maybe technically the option hasn't vested yet.
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BigPapisMangoSalsa		#564	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 56 12/13/11 12:30 PM	For the record, I was basing my knowledge on how Speier calculated AAVs and Luxury tax dollars for this year (to get the number for Lackey - thanks for posting that Jmei, I should have done that to back myself up - lesson learned): AB discussing (in another thread) how an added player option reduced the prior year's AAV (a player option is "guaranteed money" because only the player can decline it - for Ortiz); and finally the "pro-rata" basis of acquired talent at the trade deadline to make the claim that it was calculated at the end of the year. I could very well be wrong, as Yirm alluded to, but these reasons were why I was operating under the assumption that I did. Once we get a certain answer on this, if someone could post the wording for the exact calculations (I haven't been able to find it) then I'd love to have that for the future.
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Yirmiyahu		#565	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3760 12/13/11 1:26 PM Forum Moderator	Thanks for that, jmei. I'll defer to the journalists.
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RedSox0407Champs		#566	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 33 12/13/11 2:42 PM	bigpupp wrote: If the Sox are really planning on staying under the cap the we wont be seeing many (if any) moves at all. Here's a total that I've been keeping. All Arbitration cases (minus Ortiz, which I simply guess on) were from Matt Swartz' work (http://www.mlbtraderumors...itration-salaries.html). If you see any mistakes please let me know. Fixed Salaries Gonzalez 22 Crawford 20.29 Beckett 17 Youkilis 10.31 Buchholz 7.49 Pedroia 6.75 Lester 6 Jenks 6 Scutaro 5.7 Iglesias 2.01 Tazawa 1.1 Albers 1.075 Miller 1.04 Arbitration (Estimates) Ortiz 12.5 Ellsbury 7.9 Aceves 1.7 Bard 1.6 Salty 1.6 Aviles 1.5 Lowrie 1.2 Morales 1 McDonald 1 Pre-Arb (Estimates) Atchison 0.55 Reddick 0.5 Doubront 0.48 Bowden 0.48 Lavarnway 0.48 Minor League Anderson 0.09 Pimentel 0.06 Exposito 0.06 Tejeda 0.06 Kalish 0.06 Middlebrooks 0.03 Weiland 0.03 Lin 0.03 Britton 0.03 Other Costs Lackey 16.5 Matsuzaka 8.67 Medical 10.5 Total Salaries Fixed 106.765 Aribitration 30 Pre-Arb 2.49 Other costs 35.67 Minor Leagues 0.45 Total Costs 175.375 So in reality the Sox only have around 4 million to spend The squeeze between the current payroll and the $178 million was tighter than even I was imagining last night. I though the Sox have about $8 million to play with, but your figures look more accurate then I was imagining. No wonder the Sox now say that they'll probably go over that $178 million. Of course knowing the way the Sox want to play it, they'll probably just skirt by about 2 - 5 million dollars.
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rodstero4		#567	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 180 12/13/11 8:50 PM	jmei wrote: Bradford of WEEI has been reporting that it will lower Lackey's AAV: His deal with Boston included a vesting option at the major league minimum (currently $414,000) for a sixth season if he required season-ending surgery on a pre-existing elbow condition. ‬Such an operation‪ would trigger the option, thus making the contract a six-year, $83 million deal — thus meaning that, for luxury tax purposes, his contract is valued at roughly $13.8 million rather than $16.5 million, something that could mean millions of dollars in luxury tax relief to the Sox. ‬ Yirm, in your defense, you might still be right about how the AAV is calculated, just wrong about when the option vests. See bolded above: yes, Lackey pitched until, basically, the end of the season. But his season ended and he had surgery, furthermore, since he'll miss the entire 2012 season, he's already HAD season ending surgery. So, maybe the option has already vested. Makes sense to me.
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buffs44444		#568	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1944 12/13/11 9:50 PM	out on Cuddy... jonmorosi Jon Morosi Sources: #SFGiants and #RedSox are out on Michael Cuddyer. #Rockies and at least one more team are in. jonmorosi Jon Morosi The #RedSox are NOT one of the teams still interested in Michael Cuddyer, I'm told. Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.
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Boggs82		#569	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 115 12/13/11 10:01 PM	So the Red Sox are out on Cuddyer. With the bidding ending for Darvish tomorrow can I dream one last night about the Red Sox posting the high bid? 1. Ellsbury CF 2. Pedrioa 2B 3. Gonzalez 1B 4. Youks 3B 5. Ortiz DH 6. Crawford LF 7. Salty C 8. Reddick RF 9. Scutoro SS Starting Five 1. Beckett 2. Lester 3. Buchholz 4. Darvish 5. Aceves Bullpen Bard Jenks Alberts Miller Morales Tazawa ? ? Bench Shoppach Lowrie Aviles Reed Johnson McDonald
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Yirmiyahu		#570	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3764 12/13/11 10:06 PM Forum Moderator	buffs44444 wrote: out on Cuddy... jonmorosi Jon Morosi Sources: #SFGiants and #RedSox are out on Michael Cuddyer. #Rockies and at least one more team are in. jonmorosi Jon Morosi The #RedSox are NOT one of the teams still interested in Michael Cuddyer, I'm told. Not surprising, considering the cost. With the organization's newfound frugality, I think the remaining money will go to pitching, with a RHH platoonmate in right field. Reed Johnson or Scott Hairston for $2M. Why haven't we heard more rumors about Cody Ross? What would he cost? $10M/2 ?
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buffs44444		#571	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1945 12/13/11 10:53 PM	Yirmiyahu wrote: Why haven't we heard more rumors about Cody Ross? What would he cost? $10M/2 ? I thought the last rumor I heard is that he wanted 3/$18M.......which is probably why the chatter has been low so far. Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.
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Guidas		#572	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2373 12/13/11 11:44 PM	Boggs82 wrote: So the Red Sox are out on Cuddyer. With the bidding ending for Darvish tomorrow can I dream one last night about the Red Sox posting the high bid? 1. Ellsbury CF 2. Pedrioa 2B 3. Gonzalez 1B 4. Youks 3B 5. Ortiz DH 6. Crawford LF 7. Salty C 8. Reddick RF 9. Scutoro SS Starting Five 1. Beckett 2. Lester 3. Buchholz 4. Darvish 5. Aceves Bullpen Bard Jenks Alberts Miller Morales Tazawa ? ? Bench Shoppach Lowrie Aviles Reed Johnson McDonald I would be more than fine with that, though I bet you see Linares ober McDonald.
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jmei		#573	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1371 12/14/11 1:08 AM Forum Moderator	Can someone explain to me why so many individuals project Linares to be a contributor to the 2012 Red Sox? Aside from a tiny BABIP-driven 68 AB stint in the AFL, he's done nothing since he's signed with the Sox and has seen multiple injuries to boot. He has a cumulative 6:35 BB/K in the states, which is just as awful as it sounds. I get that he can play all three outfield positions relatively well and is right-handed, but his scouting report is not that impressive (good defense, average power, slightly above-average hit tool, well below-average plate discipline).
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Arquimedez Bozo		#574	[url]	[-]
Posts: 12604 12/14/11 2:33 AM Chris Hatfield Executive Editor SoxProspects.com	jmei wrote: Can someone explain to me why so many individuals project Linares to be a contributor to the 2012 Red Sox? Aside from a tiny BABIP-driven 68 AB stint in the AFL, he's done nothing since he's signed with the Sox and has seen multiple injuries to boot. He has a cumulative 6:35 BB/K in the states, which is just as awful as it sounds. I get that he can play all three outfield positions relatively well and is right-handed, but his scouting report is not that impressive (good defense, average power, slightly above-average hit tool, well below-average plate discipline). He was one of the darlings of Spring Training last year after an excellent AFL campaign. His sample sizes are so small that you basically can't take much from any of them, but between the AFL and ST, he'd been on a roll before getting hurt. You could easily make the case that had he not been hurt, he would have spent a LOT of time in Boston last year. "I think the baby is sleeping right now." - Jonathan Singer Twitter: @ChrisHatfield/@SoxProspects / SoxProspects on Facebook
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charliezink16		#575	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1018 12/14/11 3:55 AM	Yirmiyahu wrote: buffs44444 wrote: out on Cuddy... jonmorosi Jon Morosi Sources: #SFGiants and #RedSox are out on Michael Cuddyer. #Rockies and at least one more team are in. jonmorosi Jon Morosi The #RedSox are NOT one of the teams still interested in Michael Cuddyer, I'm told. Not surprising, considering the cost. With the organization's newfound frugality, I think the remaining money will go to pitching, with a RHH platoonmate in right field. Reed Johnson or Scott Hairston for $2M. Why haven't we heard more rumors about Cody Ross? What would he cost? $10M/2 ? I still feel that Scott Hairston is the best option here. Chances are he'll be cheaper than Johnson and Ross, maybe $1.5 would do it for him. He can play all three OF positions, has a career .830 OPS vs. lefties, and has a swing built perfectly for Fenway. Not much to lose with this signing IMO. Twitter (Tweet about Sox alot) YouTube Account
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joshv02		#576	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 959 12/14/11 9:10 AM	jmei wrote: Can someone explain to me why so many individuals project Linares to be a contributor to the 2012 Red Sox? Aside from a tiny BABIP-driven 68 AB stint in the AFL, he's done nothing since he's signed with the Sox and has seen multiple injuries to boot. He has a cumulative 6:35 BB/K in the states, which is just as awful as it sounds. I get that he can play all three outfield positions relatively well and is right-handed, but his scouting report is not that impressive (good defense, average power, slightly above-average hit tool, well below-average plate discipline). In addition to what AB wrote, no one (so far as I can tell) expects him to be a star. People expect that he can be the weak side of an OF platoon, or a 4/5 OFer.
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joshv02		#577	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 960 12/14/11 9:14 AM	Boggs82 wrote: So the Red Sox are out on Cuddyer. With the bidding ending for Darvish tomorrow can I dream one last night about the Red Sox posting the high bid? 1. Ellsbury CF 2. Pedrioa 2B 3. Gonzalez 1B 4. Youks 3B 5. Ortiz DH 6. Crawford LF 7. Salty C 8. Reddick RF 9. Scutoro SS Starting Five 1. Beckett 2. Lester 3. Buchholz 4. Darvish 5. Aceves Bullpen Bard Jenks Alberts Miller Morales Tazawa ? ? Bench Shoppach Lowrie Aviles Reed Johnson McDonald They'll need a rule change before they get a 13 man bullpen and a 5 man bench.
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Mhueg		#578	[url]	[-]
Posts: 870 12/14/11 12:34 PM Matt Huegel Senior Editor SoxProspects.com	Jerry Crasnick tweets that Kyle Weiland has been traded to the Astros for a bullpen piece.
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Deanskie		#579	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 108 12/14/11 12:44 PM	Mhueg wrote: Jerry Crasnick tweets that Kyle Weiland has been traded to the Astros for a bullpen piece. I'd take Melancon... Screw the troops. Or at the very least, buy them a drink.
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GK2186		#580	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 147 12/14/11 12:46 PM	Rosenthal tweeted Lowrie, Weiland for Melancon
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