How would you fix the Red Sox for next season in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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How would you fix the Red Sox for next season

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Steve of Charlotte		#61	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 491 11/05/11 3:36 PM	I've made this comment elsewhere, sign Buehrle!!! No compensation! 200 plus innings year after year. You may have to outbid the Yanks, but I like him as a more sure thing. 3 years (option for 4th?) for $45 million. He should age fairly well. Sign Beltran to play right and DH for 60 games. No compensation! 3 years for $42 million. Re-sign Papelbon. 3 years and 4th year option. 3 years at $39 to $42 million. Use Youk as part-time DH for 60 games and keep him healthy. You guessed it....let Big Papi go for draft choices. Lowrie and Aviles can easily play 3rd for 60 games next year. Both give us great flexibility. *We need more flexibility!!* Use the DH to keep guys healthy and sharp.
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pedroiayouk1520		#62	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 138 11/05/11 4:01 PM	Steve of Charlotte wrote: I've made this comment elsewhere, sign Buehrle!!! No compensation! 200 plus innings year after year. You may have to outbid the Yanks, but I like him as a more sure thing. 3 years (option for 4th?) for $45 million. He should age fairly well. Sign Beltran to play right and DH for 60 games. No compensation! 3 years for $42 million. Re-sign Papelbon. 3 years and 4th year option. 3 years at $39 to $42 million. Use Youk as part-time DH for 60 games and keep him healthy. You guessed it....let Big Papi go for draft choices. Lowrie and Aviles can easily play 3rd for 60 games next year. Both give us great flexibility. *We need more flexibility!!* Use the DH to keep guys healthy and sharp. Good players and all but do you really want to sign a 33 and 35 year old to 3 year deals that would put the sox not only over the luxury tax, but over $200 million in payroll?
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gfur732		#63	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 113 11/05/11 4:04 PM	totheights wrote: soxfan13 wrote: I think pitching is easily the #1 priority, but our bullpen is fine, let Paps go but get starters Our bullpen is fine? Especially if we let Paps go? Hahaha, one of the most ridiculous things I have read on here. In the American League last year, Red Sox relievers were fourth in ERA, first in FIP and second in xFIP. They were also completely overworked last year with the second most IP in the AL. They threw over 100 IP more than two of the other top five bullpens (by ERA) and still threw ~30 more than the remaining two. Obviously Papelbon strongly influenced those numbers, but even if you take him out, they're still middle of the pack overall. If Papelbon leaves, the bullpen isn't an obvious weakness, especially when you consider that beyond Papelbon, the market for relievers this year has plenty of attractive options. In the future if you're going to ridicule someone, try and at last have the slightest clue what you're talking about.
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soxfan13		#64	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 35 11/05/11 4:04 PM	The more I think about it, the more letting Ortiz go and signing Beltran seems perfect. One, Beltran put up 4.7 WAR last year, if I project him to DH half the time and play RF half the time, his WAR would be approximately 4.4, a little better than Ortiz. Two, using that plan of playing him in RF half the time, DHing half the time, Lavarnway can catch half the time and DH half the time, his MLE numbers translate out to a 123 wRC+, so we get him playing full time instead of Kalish's 94 wRC+ in the majors in 2010, or Reddick's 105 this year, or Salty's 94 this year, using Ortiz you get the 105 or 94 wRC+ bat playing full time and the 123 one platooning, the difference between Ryan Lavarnway full time and Josh reddick half time, and JOsh Reddick full time and Ryan Lavarnway half time is about 6 runs, 10 runs= 1 win so basically with improving Beltran over Ortiz, and getting Lavarnway in the lineup more, you get 1 extra win or 4 million dollars. Beltran also is a year younger than Ortiz and wont cost 4 million more, so it's a good signing from that standpoint, but wait, you also get a compensation pick for Ortiz AND you don't lose your 1st rounder for Beltran. So basically getting Beltran instead of Ortiz, your gaining a win, and getting a 1st round or supplemental draft pick. He's also younger than Ortiz. Last Edited By: soxfan13 11/05/11 4:07 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Guidas		#65	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2251 11/05/11 4:08 PM	I might agree with the Beltran chatter if it was a 1 and 1 deal, but I don't trust those knees, DH or not. One thing about Ortiz - Papi has avoided injury.
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pedroiayouk1520		#66	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 139 11/05/11 4:08 PM	pedroiayouk1520 wrote: Steve of Charlotte wrote: I've made this comment elsewhere, sign Buehrle!!! No compensation! 200 plus innings year after year. You may have to outbid the Yanks, but I like him as a more sure thing. 3 years (option for 4th?) for $45 million. He should age fairly well. Sign Beltran to play right and DH for 60 games. No compensation! 3 years for $42 million. Re-sign Papelbon. 3 years and 4th year option. 3 years at $39 to $42 million. Use Youk as part-time DH for 60 games and keep him healthy. You guessed it....let Big Papi go for draft choices. Lowrie and Aviles can easily play 3rd for 60 games next year. Both give us great flexibility. *We need more flexibility!!* Use the DH to keep guys healthy and sharp. Good players and all but do you really want to sign a 33 and 35 year old to 3 year deals that would put the sox not only over the luxury tax, but over $200 million in payroll? Going into this offseason, the Sox should be at about an AAV of $167M including the arbitration increases. Assuming they were to sign those 3 players to those contracts, it would put the Sox at almost $210M for the 2012 luxury tax implications (threshold is 190). The Sox have shown every year since the luxury tax was implemented that their budget and strategy is to stay just under the luxury tax for opening day, so they can have some wiggle room for mid-season transactions. I think the best way to stay under the $190 mark is to acquire cheaper options for the 2 open rotation spots, whether by trade or free agency.
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gfur732		#67	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 114 11/05/11 4:10 PM	soxfan13 wrote: totheights wrote: soxfan13 wrote: I think pitching is easily the #1 priority, but our bullpen is fine, let Paps go but get starters Our bullpen is fine? Especially if we let Paps go? Hahaha, one of the most ridiculous things I have read on here. umm, it kind of is, how is that ridiculous? The Red Sox bullpen had a WAR of 7.7 from fangraphs, best in the majors. Take away Paps's 3.0 WAR and it's 4.7 which would be 5th best in the majors. That's how sad the starting pitching was, the Red Sox had the best hitting(wrRC+), 3rd best Fielding (UZR), and best bullpen( bullpen WAR) from fangraphs' main offense, defense, and bullpen stats, but didn't make the playoffs. People are seriously underrating how good the bullpen was last year. They're tops in WAR largely because the rotation sucked and as a result they were given a ton of additional innings. Pitcher fWAR is just a function of xFIP and IP, so good bullpens on teams with good or even just decent rotations wouldn't get as many innings (through no fault of their own). Not that i disagree with your overall point, just this bit of evidence.
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soxfan13		#68	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 36 11/05/11 4:19 PM	gfur732 wrote: soxfan13 wrote: totheights wrote: soxfan13 wrote: I think pitching is easily the #1 priority, but our bullpen is fine, let Paps go but get starters Our bullpen is fine? Especially if we let Paps go? Hahaha, one of the most ridiculous things I have read on here. umm, it kind of is, how is that ridiculous? The Red Sox bullpen had a WAR of 7.7 from fangraphs, best in the majors. Take away Paps's 3.0 WAR and it's 4.7 which would be 5th best in the majors. That's how sad the starting pitching was, the Red Sox had the best hitting(wrRC+), 3rd best Fielding (UZR), and best bullpen( bullpen WAR) from fangraphs' main offense, defense, and bullpen stats, but didn't make the playoffs. People are seriously underrating how good the bullpen was last year. They're tops in WAR largely because the rotation sucked and as a result they were given a ton of additional innings. Pitcher fWAR is just a function of xFIP and IP, so good bullpens on teams with good or even just decent rotations wouldn't get as many innings (through no fault of their own). Not that i disagree with your overall point, just this bit of evidence. But their bullpen had the most WAR/400 IP too, and they would have the 6th best WAR/400 IP W/O Pap.
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beasleyrockah		#69	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 259 11/05/11 4:23 PM	soxfan13...I feel like I say this daily, but you continuously misuse the WAR statistic in various horrible ways. I'm not saying this to pick on you, and I often agree with your larger points, but your rationale in getting there is usually very flawed. Last Edited By: beasleyrockah 11/05/11 4:27 PM. Edited 1 time.
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soxfan13		#70	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 37 11/05/11 4:30 PM	beasleyrockah wrote: soxfan13...I feel like I say this daily, but you continuously misuse the WAR statistic in various horrible ways. I'm not saying this to pick on you, and I often agree with your larger points, but your rationale in getting there is usually very flawed. which one? Beltran or bullpen? how? Last Edited By: soxfan13 11/05/11 4:35 PM. Edited 1 time.
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beasleyrockah		#71	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 260 11/05/11 5:03 PM	soxfan13 wrote: beasleyrockah wrote: soxfan13...I feel like I say this daily, but you continuously misuse the WAR statistic in various horrible ways. I'm not saying this to pick on you, and I often agree with your larger points, but your rationale in getting there is usually very flawed. which one? Beltran or bullpen? how? Both, and there are more examples. You can't take one season of WAR and use it as a real projection going foward, especially in regards to a guy like Beltran or relief pitching. Relievers are so volatile to begin with, and WAR isn't a good statistic to grade a bullpen. I would love to see Beltran signed, and I think they should move on from Papelbon and take advantage of this year's buyer market...I just don't want to hear about how the 2011 Red Sox bullpen's WAR relates to the 2012 Red Sox bullpen.
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Boggs82		#72	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 90 11/07/11 9:16 PM	Ok now this would be great 1. Ellsbury CF 2. Pedroia 2b 3. Gonzalez 1b 4. Youkilis 3b 5. Crawford LF 6. Lavarnway DH (He WILL Hit) 7. Cespedes RF 8. Salty C 9. Suctoro Bench Lowrie Aviles Kalish Back up C Back up RH OF Starters Beckett Lester Buchholz Darvish Aceves Bullpen Papelbon Bard Jenks Morales Weiland Another Righty (Trade Reddick for a power arm) Large Expenditures Added Paps @ 13 mil per year Darvish @ 15 mil per year (I am out of the loop on the cost/excludes posting fee) Cespedes @ 8 mil per year (I am out of the loop on the cost)
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rodstero4		#73	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 173 11/08/11 2:35 PM	It really shocks me every year the way we (as posters on this board). swoon over the bullpen offseason after offseason while ignoring the overwhelming evidence that bullpen arms are (generally) wildly inconsistent from year to year. I want to re-sign Papelbon this offseason about as much as I wanted to sign Rafael Soriano last offseason. As a matter of fact, if I ran a baseball organization I'd have a rule that no reliever can ever receive a contract of more than 2 years. It's just a poor spending of money. Some day, my most sincere hope, is for the Red Sox to have a bullpen filled with cheap, young, failed starters from the farm system. Weiland, Wilson, Doubront, Bowden and Bard are a good start. Because if anyone can name a bullpen arm signed from free agency in the past few years (besides Aceves...dammit) that worked out well, I'd love to hear it.
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NotFromTheBandwagon		#74	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 101 11/08/11 2:59 PM	rodstero Ok, I'll bite. Mike Timlin? That probably stretches your definition of "the past few years", but he worked out pretty well. I am just picking nits with you (what else is a baseball fan going to do in early November). For the most part I agree with your thoughts about a bullpen filled with cost controlled former starters from within our own system.
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Boggs82		#75	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 91 11/08/11 4:31 PM	I agree with your idea about the bullpen mostly. I still think that there are certain players out there that succeed almost yearly with no need to worry. In this case we have Papelbon, sign him and throw spaghetti at the wall for the rest.
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Yirmiyahu		#76	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3621 11/08/11 4:57 PM Forum Moderator	rodstero4 wrote: It really shocks me every year the way we (as posters on this board). swoon over the bullpen offseason after offseason while ignoring the overwhelming evidence that bullpen arms are (generally) wildly inconsistent from year to year. I want to re-sign Papelbon this offseason about as much as I wanted to sign Rafael Soriano last offseason. As a matter of fact, if I ran a baseball organization I'd have a rule that no reliever can ever receive a contract of more than 2 years. It's just a poor spending of money. Some day, my most sincere hope, is for the Red Sox to have a bullpen filled with cheap, young, failed starters from the farm system. Weiland, Wilson, Doubront, Bowden and Bard are a good start. Because if anyone can name a bullpen arm signed from free agency in the past few years (besides Aceves...dammit) that worked out well, I'd love to hear it. This. High priced relievers not named "Mariano Rivera" very rarely work out: Brad Lidge - $37.5M/3 years - 4.73 ERA, 41.2 innings/year Francisco Rodriguez - $37M/3 years Joe Nathan - $47M/4 years - 45.3 innings/year (TJ surgery) Rafael Soriano - $35M/3 years - 4.12 ERA, 39.3 innings/year (2 years left) Billy Wagner - $43M/4 years - 50.8 innings/year (TJ surgery) Kerry Wood - $20.5M/2 years - 3.74 ERA, 50.5 innings/year B.J. Ryan - $47M/5 years - 31.1 innings/year (TJ surgery) Brian Fuentes - $17.5M/2 years - 3.41 ERA, 51.5 innings/year Trevor Hoffman - $8M/1 years - 5.89 ERA, 47.3 innings/year Bobby Jenks - $7.5M/1 years - 4.44 ERA, 52.7 innings/year Danys Baez - $19M/3 years - 5.02 ERA, 40.7 innings/year (TJ surgery) Bobby Jenks - $12M/2 years - 6.32 ERA, 15.7 innings/year (1 year left) Mike Gonzalez - $12M/2 years - 4.27 ERA, 39.0 innings/year Fernando Rodney - $11M/2 years - 4.32 ERA, 50.0 innings/year Jonathan Broxton - $11M/2 years - 4.32 ERA, 37.5 innings/year
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Boggs82		#77	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 92 11/08/11 6:08 PM	Well I don't think we will have to worry about the Red Sox signing Papelbon. With the Phillies rumored to be going 4 years on Madson (possible 5th option year). I think Cherington's first big move will be pointing Paps and his agent to the door.
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rodstero4		#78	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 174 11/08/11 7:02 PM	Boggs82 wrote: Well I don't think we will have to worry about the Red Sox signing Papelbon. With the Phillies rumored to be going 4 years on Madson (possible 5th option year). I think Cherington's first big move will be pointing Paps and his agent to the door. I really hope so. If I hear on twitter "Papelbon, Red Sox, agree on 4 yr/$52mil deal" I'm going to kick a baby. Softly. But still.
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AardsmaCarta		#79	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 45 11/08/11 7:24 PM	That deal is the Phillies re-signing their own guy. I seriously doubt any team is going to go that high AND give up a first-rounder for someone like Papelbon. It's going to be close, but I don't think the Madson deal means the end for Paps.
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pedroiayouk1520		#80	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 141 11/08/11 7:42 PM	Wow, I cannot believe the Phils are going to give 4 years @ 11M/yr for a 1st year closer at age 31. I was expecting Madson to get 4 years at 8M and Papelbon to get 4 years at 13M. Unfortunately for the Sox, Papelbon is the only sure thing closer available (unless you want to give 34yo Heath Bell a multi-year deal). I'm gonna guess that the Phils' overpay for Madson will lead to Pap getting closer to 14M over 4 or 5 years now. I just might give Pap that deal because he is the only guy that you know can handle the pressure of Boston and he has become a leader by example in the Sox pen. Oh yea, he also knows how to stay in great shape unlike Beckett and Lackey.
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