Yirmiyahu wrote:

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Guidas wrote:

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Besides, this guy is decidedly not DiceK. He's 6' 5", throws consistently mid-90s, is long in the legs and lean in the trunk, and works more like a traditional power pitcher. Also consider his lifetime ERA 1.99 in Japanese ball vs. DiceK's 2.95. Also consider he's 25 and, according to NPB threw 232 innings last year with 276Ks, 36BBs (very un-DiceK there) with an ERA of 1.44. I am not fool enough to think this translates to a 1.44 ERA, but doing some quick math with DiceK's MLB ERA up until his injury, I get about a 3.45 (again, imperfect, but other people have created equivalency formula's - among them Hardball Times, which comes within a few tenths of this as well).

First thing, I think your comparison of his stats/scouting to Matsuzaka is misleading. After his first few years, Matsuzaka had excellent command in Japan. Over his last 5 years there, his K/9 was 9.35 and his BB/9 was 2.24. Darvish's career numbers are 8.93 and 2.36. And Matsuzaka pitched in a more offensive era than Darvish. As far as the scouting, "consistently mid-90's power pitcher with excellent movement and command" is exactly the same thing we heard about Matsuzaka. In addition to the obviously weaker competition, the Japanese baseball is supposedly easier to pitch with (which can distort the scouting). He's the same age Matsuzaka was in his final year in Japan. Basically, I think the hype/scouting/stats for both of these guys is very similar.