SoxSail wrote:

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gregblossersbelly wrote:

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I keep talking about Aceves moving to the starting rotation and Iknow it would never fly but think about what would happen if Tito flopped AA and Lackey?

   To answer you're question. We'd be in 2nd place. Lackey and Aceves are 21-9 in their roles. You're crazy if you think we would get that much production by switching them. Lackey is 7-1 with a 4.11 era after a terrible 1st half.

W-L record tells you nothing.

It could mean something if the pitcher had a strong W-L total but had one or two really bad, flukish outtings that completely dragged down his ERA and peripherals.  That's not the case here at all though.

GBB, those also aren't his second half numbers.  Those numbers include the start before the all star break and of course you're going to bias the numbers if you choose to end the data set with a point that pushes the overall numbers in his favor.  His actual second half numbers are 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA.

Those second half numbers are actually influenced in the exact opposite way of what I suggested earlier.  By per start ERA, he's only actually had one good start in the second half (7 IP, 1 ER and against SEA of all teams) and that start was over a month ago.  The rest of his starts range from a per start ERA of 4.05 to 6.75.  The median of all the games (including the good one against Seatle) is 4.76.  His FIP over that period, 4.33, is a bit better than his 4.65 ERA, but not dramatically so.


Also, LCBF, when you say:

ADD: I'm totally comfortable with a playoff rotation of Beckett, Lester, Lackey & the winner of Buchholz' health, Bedard, Miller & Wake.

I'm not sure I understand how Bedard is in the group of people completing for the 4-spot.  Unless he remembers that he's made of glass, he's a lock to be better than Lackey.  I don't mean to call you out, I'm genuinely asking because I've seen a lot of people here and even more on SoSH seeming to act as if he's just another piece off the scrap heap.