jmei wrote:

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I wonder if the plate discipline will carry into the major leagues or whether guys will just pump fastballs in the zone. Hard to think of a comparable player with such great plate discipline but lousy contact.

Che-Hsuan Lin has a lot of trouble driving balls.  He's adept at getting into good counts, but misses barreling balls up, often topping, chopping, or hitting them off the hands for lazy flies.  The few times I have seen him pull the ball hard on a line or in the air since reaching Double-A last season usually happens when he leaks his hips early.  The ability to work counts and not swing at bad pitches is excellent, but Lin can't square up the good pitches he works hard to get.  I'm inclined to say the batspeed isn't going to translate to make the bat much of an impact outside of the fact he will at least make pitchers throw strikes, but the defense and speed land him a bench role in the majors. 

  
  

ancientsoxfogey wrote:

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Now, of course, that's changed, though Ells still isn't a walk machine.  But it is interesting to note that it took him until age 27 (with an injury year interspersed) to "get it."  Lin is still quite a bit younger.  Is there a chance that at some point he "gets it?"  Is it possible that he's one of those guys that leaves the organization, and a few years later we regret it?

Jacoby Ellsbury always had raw power and during BP sessions would show it, but the question for him were whether he was going to learn how to translate that power into games.  Ellsbury would look one way in BP and then when he got into the games early in his career would look another way, mostly lunging across the plate when trying to attack balls and dropping his back shoulder to produce lazy flies when he tried to drive the ball.  The theme being the natural power was always there.  I remember Ellsbury's first career home run, against Toronto I believe, and it was a line drive drilled over the bullpen at Fenway.  Not a cheap shot.  If you have seen a lot of his home runs this season, he's capable of putting a charge into the ball and generating backspin.  For Ellsbury, doing that consistently rested on learning how to zone in on his pitch and clean his stride up, especially learning how to open up and get good wood on inside fastballs rather than jam himself off the handle because his body was taking him towards the right-handed batter's box.

Che-Hsuan Lin is in a different boat.  He's already very good at zoning in on his pitch and dictating at-bats.  But, the fat part of the bat does not get on the ball consistently and when it does he doesn't generate that much backspin on the ball.  In BP he doesn't show a ton of raw power as well.  Often young hitters show the ability to create solid backspin in batting practice.  It is not a forgone conclusion that it will translate into games of course, but it is a sign that the natural power is there if they can learn how to become selective and repeat their swing mechanics in game action.   A lot of times in good hitters counts as well, Lin flat out misses squaring up good pitches to drive, fouling them off or hitting them off the handle.  Lin can struggle with his balance, especially when he first got to Double-A.  This would cause his hands to get too far out front and his bat to drag.  He's cleaned that up though and late last season into this season looked much more balanced at the plate.  But, the bat continues to have trouble consistently getting there and from my scouting views it looks like his natural batspeed is not translating as the pitching advances versus anything learned.  He can cheat to get there, as pointed out with leaking with his hips, but that is a very fine line and doesn't allow a hitter to consistently stay back on off-speed stuff.

Take all of that as observational and also that I believe Lin is going to play in the major leagues.  I am just not projecting him to be a long-term everyday guy, but also see him having good value to a major league team's bench (Red Sox included) because of what he does well.  Exceptional defense highlighted by a plus-plus arm, speed on the base paths, and the ability to make pitchers throw strikes.  I do subscribe to the cliche that "power is the last tool to develop," but the player must have that tool to develop, which the natural plus-to-better batspeed is a big component of.     
     
  

JimRiceRocks wrote:

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Why can't that be (theoretically) fixed? He's making contact, has good discipline so should get decent pitches to swing at. Why can work with balance and swing mechanics (or whatever it is he needs) help him to get better contact and more backspin? I'm not saying I am counting onthis, but while batspeed likely can't be improved much at his age, the other can (unless perhaps batspeed is his real problem?

You got it JRR.  As I mentioned above, the batspeed is not translating as the level of competition steps up.