I was really amazed at the reaction of several posters to my question about 10 posts ago. I was expecting more "Beltre isn't worth it at almost any price, because he no longer gives us what we really need." Or maybe "I'd take him if the AAV was no more than 7 million per for 3 years or less." Or something like that.

Instead, what came forth was different versions of $10-12 million for 2-3 years.

Is a guy who plays GG defense but may or may not provide significant offensive clout really a valuable asset at $20-35 million given the other moves the Sox have made so far this winter? Keep in mind that if this is done, the bottom of the lineup is Beltre/Cameron/Scutaro in some order, with the bottom 4 being Beltre/Cameron/Scutaro/Varitek in some order maybe as many as 50 games during the year. That has the potential to be at best fairly good, at worst ...... not so good.

One thing: at least maybe we'd get to find out how Drew's offense would produce from higher up in the order. Perhaps a lineup like

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Drew
Youk
VMart
Ortiz
Beltre
Cameron/Hermida
Scutaro

The budget number is hard and set.

Bwahahahahahahhahahahahahaha!!!!

We have heard a lot of commentary in this forum about how it's foolish to plan for future FA markets because you don't know who will be available. But Cashman's comments seem to put the kabosh to that, at least partially. I suspect that the number for this offseason is "hard and set" only because the Yankees are planning to do their exhorbitant spending next year rather than this. If the players they truly lusted after were out there this winter, I have no doubt that they would spend another half billion dollars in commitments to lock them up. I'm still convinced that they will end up with Holliday this winter, and are just making their best effort to minimize the cost.

The Sox and Yankees may be MOSTLY in line for different players next winter. But that is ignoring the 800-pound gorilla in the room, and his name is Mauer. If he makes it to FA next year, you might see the all-time all-out war for his services. This is going to be ridiculous if it comes to pass, and that is why I hope that Mauer resigns with the Twins. They deserve him, anyway.

Cashman's comments also raise a retrospective thought: Was he looking ahead to the 2008 FA class a couple of years ago? People on this forum have commented that he went with the Joba/Hughes/Kennedy approach in 2008 and it didn't work out. But maybe that was the Yankees' version of taking a step back, as has been discussed relative to the Sox in 2010. They figured they'd try the young guns approach and if it didn't work out they could buy their way out of the mess in the offseason. They didn't especially worry about 1B either, perhaps with the realization/expectation that Teixeira would be available in the offseason. It is not at all clear to me that the Yankees simply "got lucky" last winter that the FA on the market were exactly the players they needed. I think we need to realize that it may very well have been planned that way in advance.

As far as the Yankees' different strategies in signing their FA last winter, I'm starting to think that it has to do not so much with the player, but with the agent and the situation. With Boras especially, it commonly does little good to come out with aggressive early offers, because Boras simply views those as an indication that his ultra-rosy views of his players are correct and he uses those as a base to try to build up additional dollars and years in later negotiations with whomever. So this winter we see everybody backing off early offers for Holliday and Beltre, leaving Boras dangling out there somewhat. Supposedly the Cardinals have made an offer/offers for Holliday but the guesstimates as to what it/they were have been all over the map. So I wonder how much true negotiation has been done with either of these guys. A lot of covert expressions of interest, maybe, but no firm commitments.