Adrian Gonzalez trade speculation in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Adrian Gonzalez trade speculation

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Guidas		#21	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 128 12/16/09 1:00 PM	OK, who here can call Theo and remind that if he takes Hoyer's proposed package for Gonzalez, that he may be able to subtract one to two players in that package and get Joey Votto instead? I say this because Votto also has experience in left - he may not be great but he's no worse than Bay - and because, though he's not jacking 40 HRs, he is an OPS machine. By giving the opportunity to play LF once a week or so that will let you get VMart into the line-up at first from time to time without sacrificing the bat of either. I'm not fixated solely on Votto. My overall point is, before getting fleeced for Gonzalez, I sure as hell hope they look at some analogous players who are probably equally "untouchable" (i.e. Votto, Braun, R. Zimmerman, Hanley, Mark Reynolds, Miguel Cabrera et al) and see what may be had for a bit less. I'm nearly sure they will do this, but I also know how we're all human and can get fixated on the hot chick from time to time, when one nearly as hot is close by, and it may take just a little less effort to get (obvious Tiger Wood rimshot line omitted here).
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amfox1		#22	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6438 12/16/09 1:01 PM Senior Forum Moderator	albertpujolsin2012 wrote: amfox1 wrote: So, to be clear, if you are Hoyer, are you taking one Type A, two Type Bs and one Type C for the cornerstone of your organization - a local player who may very well re-sign with the organization as a free agent - in your first big move as GM? I think not. If' I am Hoyer, I pass on your suggestion. Put yourself in Hoyer's shoes - how do you react to a one Type A/three Type B (Buchholz, Reddick, Ramirez and Bowden) proposal? If the Red Sox want to get this deal done, and they desperately do, from all accounts, the price will be a full one. This is not the Blue Jays putting themselves in a corner with Halladay. This is not the Phillies being scared off by Lee's contract demands. This is a team with a prime chip and no desperate need to trade it during this offseason. See - that is where I disagree. The Sox are not desperate to trade for AGon. Show me one indication that they are not prepared to go into the season with a combo of Youkilis/VMart/free agent signing for two or less years as their combo at 3B/1B/C. And, if the Padres want to take it to the line and see what other potential suitors there will be for AGon, let them have it. Last I checked, there has been only one team seeking the services of AGon and that is the Red Sox. Plus, no matter "how friendly his contract" is, they are not going to be able to afford him following the 2011 season. So, the cost-benefit is this for the Padres: (1) risk losing him in free agency and getting two Type A draft picks, (2) lower their demand from the Red Sox knowing that they still get good quality through one Tier 1, two Tier 2, and one Tier 3 prospects from the Red Sox, (3) wait and see if another suitor comes around for AGon even though he is only under their control for 2 years and knowing that there is at least one other team that has their own 1B probably going the route of free agency at the same time at AGon. The Padres are not in control of this situation. We'll have to agree to disagree. The Padres are in absolute control of this situation until the trade deadline this year. Then, it becomes Halladay-esque if the Padres start overtly shopping him. Since I trust Hoyer not to screw up the situation (a la Ricciardi), the Padres will not overtly put Gonzalez on the market before they are ready to trade him.
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albertpujolsin2012		#23	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 62 12/16/09 1:08 PM	amfox1 wrote: albertpujolsin2012 wrote: amfox1 wrote: So, to be clear, if you are Hoyer, are you taking one Type A, two Type Bs and one Type C for the cornerstone of your organization - a local player who may very well re-sign with the organization as a free agent - in your first big move as GM? I think not. If' I am Hoyer, I pass on your suggestion. Put yourself in Hoyer's shoes - how do you react to a one Type A/three Type B (Buchholz, Reddick, Ramirez and Bowden) proposal? If the Red Sox want to get this deal done, and they desperately do, from all accounts, the price will be a full one. This is not the Blue Jays putting themselves in a corner with Halladay. This is not the Phillies being scared off by Lee's contract demands. This is a team with a prime chip and no desperate need to trade it during this offseason. See - that is where I disagree. The Sox are not desperate to trade for AGon. Show me one indication that they are not prepared to go into the season with a combo of Youkilis/VMart/free agent signing for two or less years as their combo at 3B/1B/C. And, if the Padres want to take it to the line and see what other potential suitors there will be for AGon, let them have it. Last I checked, there has been only one team seeking the services of AGon and that is the Red Sox. Plus, no matter "how friendly his contract" is, they are not going to be able to afford him following the 2011 season. So, the cost-benefit is this for the Padres: (1) risk losing him in free agency and getting two Type A draft picks, (2) lower their demand from the Red Sox knowing that they still get good quality through one Tier 1, two Tier 2, and one Tier 3 prospects from the Red Sox, (3) wait and see if another suitor comes around for AGon even though he is only under their control for 2 years and knowing that there is at least one other team that has their own 1B probably going the route of free agency at the same time at AGon. The Padres are not in control of this situation. We'll have to agree to disagree. The Padres are in absolute control of this situation until the trade deadline this year. Then, it becomes Halladay-esque if the Padres start overtly shopping him. Since I trust Hoyer not to screw up the situation (a la Ricciardi), the Padres will not overtly put Gonzalez on the market before they are ready to trade him. Thats three months of the 2010 season. I will give Epstein the benefit of the doubt in knowing that Hoyer will have to start competing for other bids if there are other potential suitors for AGon, which will likely coincide with what the Brewers might need to do regarding their own first baseman, who is age comparable and his offensive metrics are far better over the last three years. EDIT: Cameron, Fuentes et al. do not make Ellsbury "redundant". A 355 OBP for a leadoff guy is weak? So what would you say about Brian Roberts? He had the same OBP last year in the lead-off spot. Ellsbury ranked #16 in OBP for lead-off hitters (over 400 PA's) but was #3 in least amount of strikeouts from the lead-off spot only behind Schumaker and DeJesus. I would be more concerned on who is going to take his place and please do not say Marco Scutaro would be a solid replacement. Last Edited By: albertpujolsin2012 12/16/09 2:09 PM. Edited 4 times.
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soxfanfl		#24	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 2 12/16/09 1:11 PM	I really don't want to give up Jacoby. I know AGon is an elite talent and I am willing to give up Buch and/or Kelly, but I draw the line there.
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Steve Dillard		#25	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1203 12/16/09 1:19 PM	Buchholz is more valuable. You can't have a $60 mil rotation, so need good value from one spot for ML minimum. Ellsbury is starting to earn money, has Boras as an agent, and is now redundant. A .340 obp from the leadoff spot is replaceable. Plus, they have drafted two CFers who make him further redundant over Cameron's two year "bridge" -- Westmoreland and Fuentes. "And the reason [JD Drew] scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that's NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn't make outs. He's always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/10/03/red.sox.epstein/index.html#ixzz0ZsFFjYPi How's Ellsbury's OBP as a leadoff guy? Very weak. .355 2009 .336 2008 Combine that weak OBP with lack of production (slugging), and you have an overrated offensive player. How's his defense? Weak enough that they got a better defensive replacement. Last Edited By: Steve Dillard 12/16/09 1:36 PM. Edited 2 times.
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German RSN		#26	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 461 12/16/09 1:24 PM	Steve Dillard wrote: Buchholz is more valuable. You can't have a $60 mil rotation, so need good value from one spot for ML minimum. Ellsbury is starting to earn money, has Boras as an agent, and is now redundant. A .340 obp from the leadoff spot is replaceable. Plus, they have drafted two CFers who make him further redundant over Cameron's two year "bridge" -- Westbrook and Fuentes. Westbrook? Do you mean Westmoreland? If so I have to agree with you. Plus Kalish and Reddick will also be an the mix playing centerfield in 2 years when Westmoreland and Fuentes are still away from making it to the majors.
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jdb		#27	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 352 12/16/09 1:25 PM	Im in the camp that doesnt think Hoyer will trade him unless we overpay. I think come the deadline he might become available along with some other 1B types.They might be in seller mode in Houston by then, the Cubs might be out with Lee being a FA and there is no telling where the Brewers will be. I would think if Chapman gets signed I would have a much easier time trading Kelly but right now I think it would be difficult with Becketts future uncertain.
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DCRi		#28	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1219 12/16/09 1:26 PM Veteran Member	Seattle also is in the mix for AGon. There were reports in the summer that they were closer to a deal than the Sox, and I just read the other day that they still are after him. If the Sox have to trade Ellsbury to get AGon they should try to get Headley in the deal. He can play the OF and 3B, and, as I recall, he is a switch-hitter. I would prefer to give up Kelly and/or Westmoreland to giving up Ellsbury. It seems to me that a package of Ellsbury, Buchholz and a couple of top/verygood prospects would be a very attractive package for Hanley as well as Zimmerman, either of whom I prefer to AGon because I am a little leery of moving Youk to 3B. After thsoe two, AGon is the best possible acquisition, but not at any price, maybe not at the prices being rumored.
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Hairps		#29	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2046 12/16/09 1:28 PM Veteran Member	Given amfox1's parameters... For Adrian Gonzalez, mix & match per the following: Type A 1. Clay Buchholz [NO] 2. Jacoby Ellsbury [YES] 3. Casey Kelly [YES] 4. Ryan Westmoreland [NO] 5. Daniel Bard [YES] Type B 6. Michael Bowden [YES] 7. Ryan Kalish [NO] or Josh Reddick [YES] 8. Max Ramirez (if Lowell trade completed) [YES] 9. Lars Anderson [YES] or Anthony Rizzo [NO] Trade considerations: I would think that a trade with San Diego for Gonzalez would involve two Type As, one Type B and one Type C. For Hanley, mix & match per the following: [YES]
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rjacques1988		#30	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 603 12/16/09 1:36 PM Veteran Member	I know this means ABSOLUTELY nothing, but figured I'd throw it out there. Per Jorge Arangure's Twitter: Source close to A Gonzalez believes he'll be traded to Red Sox within next 10 days.Does this mean deal will happen?No.But momentum is there
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IBSmith85		#31	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 96 12/16/09 1:38 PM	Steve Dillard wrote: Buchholz is more valuable. You can't have a $60 mil rotation, so need good value from one spot for ML minimum. Ellsbury is starting to earn money, has Boras as an agent, and is now redundant. A .340 obp from the leadoff spot is replaceable. Plus, they have drafted two CFers who make him further redundant over Cameron's two year "bridge" -- Westbrook and Fuentes. I agree, I love Beckett, but the idea of flipping the prospects we recieve for him to SD makes more sense to me. All the talk about Lackey making Buchholz expendible doesnt make sense, Buchholz is the perfect piece for us (assuming he fulfills his potential, which i believe he will, cost controlled for years to come at a high level of production). Lackey does however replace Beckett's need in the rotation (numbers are insanely close, Beckett can be better, but Lackey is far more consistent). Westbrook....my favorite 2 positional prospects rolled into one, what could better. RWM and WMB = RWMB Ryan Willmorelandbrooks EDIT: Dillard corrected it, but i couldnt resist. I still believe in WMB "I will repeat as Rookie of the Year" - Dustin Pedroia Last Edited By: IBSmith85 12/16/09 1:40 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Guidas		#32	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 129 12/16/09 1:42 PM	I would prefer to give up Kelly and/or Westmoreland to giving up Ellsbury. I'm wondering if Hoyer is as fixated on Ellsbury as the speculators who default to Cameron = CF. With 2 years of service, Ells will begin arb eligibility soon - or at least sooner than, say, Reddick or Kalish. I also think Reddick or Kalish may be a better fit for SD; Reddick because he has a better arm for that massive outfield, and more pop; and Kalish because he's more of an OBA machine than Ells with a better arm, albeit a step slower. Also, both come with 6 years of control, and 3 years until Arb. Just a thought. And for the record, if they can do this without giving up both Ells and Buchholz and instead giving up, say Bard and a mess o' prospects, count me in.
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jdb		#33	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 353 12/16/09 1:44 PM	rjacques1988 wrote: I know this means ABSOLUTELY nothing, but figured I'd throw it out there. I was thinking a few days ago about this situation. Since it hit the media that Hoyer and Gonzo's agent met for lunch to discuss a contract extension a few rumors started. A source close to him says he wants to play for Boston and now one saying he thinks he will be traded within 10 days. I wonder if his camp asked for a trade? Could be but this is also baseballs silly season so who knows.
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Nolson20		#34	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 395 12/16/09 1:56 PM	sox junky wrote: Speculation is SD wants a CF, pitching and Catcher. I would prefer to keep Buchholz and Ellsbury. Maybe Reddick, Bowden, Kelley and Max Ramirez would get it done? Maybe not... We are going to have to trade one of Ellsbury/Buchholz and it depends on which one you want to give up. I think it could be similar to the Twins potential trade in which we put together two packages featuring both Ellsbury and Buchholz but not both within the same deal and the Padres get to choose.
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BoSox81		#35	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 83 12/16/09 2:20 PM	In my opinion the best option would be to flip Beckett for prospects to deal to SD. 2nd best option is to trade Ellsbury + prospects - WML. I think Hoyer would like to have a triples machine in PETCO. In fact, because of the dimensions of that park and because Ellbury relies on his speed and has little power he could put up a better SLG in PETCO than in Fenway.
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rangoon82		#36	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 767 12/16/09 2:28 PM Veteran Member	Steve Dillard wrote: How's Ellsbury's OBP as a leadoff guy? Very weak. .355 2009 .336 2008 Combine that weak OBP with lack of production (slugging), and you have an overrated offensive player. How's his defense? Weak enough that they got a better defensive replacement. I agree with this assessment and part of me would rather trade Ellsbury over Buchholz (pitching is too valuable) but at the same time it leaves a pretty glaring hole at leadoff for the foreseeable future. Is Scutaro a viable option there for the next few years? Probably not.
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terry180123		#37	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 138 12/16/09 2:28 PM	The Yankee fans are getting very nervous with the latest rumors. I'm loving this. Here is on example of their paranoia. This was all set up by the Red Sox in advance. They purposely had Jed Hoyer go to the Padres, and the Padres purposely hired Hoyer so they could give Gonzalez away. They fired Kevin Towers, a good friend of Brian Cashman's. (He has been reported to be a good friend of Theo's, but I dont buy it) Now everybody can say, Jed Hoyer knows the Sox farm system through and through. He will get what he wants for Gonzalez. When in actuality, Hoyer was sent to the Padres to do his duty, help the Red Sox.
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Archie Graham		#38	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3061 12/16/09 2:30 PM	Will Theo let them race before the trade?
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JimRiceRocks		#39	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1232 12/16/09 3:04 PM Veteran Member	BoSox81 wrote: In my opinion the best option would be to flip Beckett for prospects to deal to SD. 2nd best option is to trade Ellsbury + prospects - WML. I think Hoyer would like to have a triples machine in PETCO. In fact, because of the dimensions of that park and because Ellbury relies on his speed and has little power he could put up a better SLG in PETCO than in Fenway. Agree, agree, agree. It may still take a prospect of ours on top of that, but I think this is how it will go down. (EDIT: If it goes down now at all) They can then sign a Duscherer or Escobar for some pitching depth. "You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan "No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan
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ancientsoxfogey		#40	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4435 12/16/09 3:06 PM Veteran Member	Facts: Hoyer will demand a king's ransom for Gonzalez, as he should, because not only is the guy good, he is cheap the next couple of years and helps the Sox get past their current payroll squeeze until some big contracts are over. Hoyer knows this. One can look at the Ellsbury glass as half full or half empty. Even .355 is not all that great for a leadoff hitter, true, (though I suspect we might be surprised at how high it would rank Ells among full-time leadoff hitters last year). But that was in his age 25 season basically, and represented a significant improvement over the previous year. It isn't at all out of the question that his OBP in 2010 could go to .375 - .380. He's still maturing as a player. At some point, with that OBP + the SB he becomes a very valuable commodity. As for whether Ells plays LF or CF for the Sox (assuming he's still on the roster), I don't give a hoot. Why? Because I think that Jacoby is going to be used hard by the Sox over the next few years offensively, and he may run himself into the ground a bit, after which the Sox will jettison him in favor of one of the young studs coming up through the system. Remember, Boras is his agent. So I don't care if he is "allowed to develop in CF" or not. Maybe I ought to care for purposes of trade value, but I don't. Let the Sox position him and Cameron in 2010 to have the best defensive team they can put on the field. Which way that is, I don't really know. Gonzalez in a certain way isn't a perfect piece for the Sox because - barring injury - he would play virtually all the games, leaving no place for VMart to go to rest him from catching yet keep him in the lineup. Unless the Sox decide to work a platoon at DH, which probably makes the most sense anyway. Sorry Papi. If terry's comments about Yankee fans are true, they are idiots. They have nothing to say after the giveaway that got them Granderson, so even if the Sox were perceived to have gotten a reasonably good deal from SD (which isn't likely) they can just pipe down. Besides, all a Gonzalez acquisition would do is motivate them further to sign Holliday.
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Adrian Gonzalez trade speculation