Kelly - Bowden - Reddick - Exposito

That should be the parameter.

amfox1 wrote:

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Red Sox trade chips (in no particular order):

Type A

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Casey Kelly
4. Ryan Westmoreland
5. Daniel Bard

Type B

6. Michael Bowden
7. Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick
8. Max Ramirez (if Lowell trade completed)
9. Lars Anderson or Anthony Rizzo

Type C

10. Everyone else in the organization

Trade considerations:

I would think that a trade with San Diego for Gonzalez would involve two Type As, one Type B and one Type C.
San Diego is reportedly focused on CF, C and SP; hence, the speculation of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Ramirez and a low-level prospect for Gonzalez.

Contract status:

Gonzalez - 2010 ($4.75mm), 2011 ($5.5mm club option), 2012 (Free Agent)
Ellsbury - 2010 (min), 2011-2013 (arb) (Agent is Scott Boras)
Buchholz/Bard - 2010-2011 (min), 2012-2014 (arb) (assumes Bard is a Super 2 after 2011)

2009 stats:

Gonzalez (age 27) - 277/407/551/958, 109/119 K/BB
Ellsbury (age 26) - 301/355/415/770, 74/49 K/BB, 70 SB

If I am Epstein - I am not trading two of those so-called Type A trading chips for a 1B that is going to be a free agent in two years. Especially, if one is a member of the existing starting rotation knowing what their schedule is for the first two months of the year. Nor, would he trade their lead-off hitter on a lineup that projects to be light in slots 6-9. One type A - two type B's - one type C should be Epstein's focus.

amfox1 wrote:

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albertpujolsin2012 wrote:

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If I am Epstein - I am not trading two of those so-called Type A trading chips for a 1B that is going to be a free agent in two years. Especially, if one is a member of the existing starting rotation knowing what their schedule is for the first two months of the year. Nor, would he trade their lead-off hitter on a lineup that projects to be light in slots 6-9. One type A - two type B's - one type C should be Epstein's focus.

So, to be clear, if you are Hoyer, are you taking one Type A, two Type Bs and one Type C for the cornerstone of your organization - a local player who may very well re-sign with the organization as a free agent - in your first big move as GM? I think not. If' I am Hoyer, I pass on your suggestion. Put yourself in Hoyer's shoes - how do you react to a one Type A/three Type B (Buchholz, Reddick, Ramirez and Bowden) proposal?

If the Red Sox want to get this deal done, and they desperately do, from all accounts, the price will be a full one. This is not the Blue Jays putting themselves in a corner with Halladay. This is not the Phillies being scared off by Lee's contract demands. This is a team with a prime chip and no desperate need to trade it during this offseason.

See - that is where I disagree. The Sox are not desperate to trade for AGon. Show me one indication that they are not prepared to go into the season with a combo of Youkilis/VMart/free agent signing for two or less years as their combo at 3B/1B/C. And, if the Padres want to take it to the line and see what other potential suitors there will be for AGon, let them have it. Last I checked, there has been only one team seeking the services of AGon and that is the Red Sox. Plus, no matter "how friendly his contract" is, they are not going to be able to afford him following the 2011 season. So, the cost-benefit is this for the Padres: (1) risk losing him in free agency and getting two Type A draft picks, (2) lower their demand from the Red Sox knowing that they still get good quality through one Tier 1, two Tier 2, and one Tier 3 prospects from the Red Sox, (3) wait and see if another suitor comes around for AGon even though he is only under their control for 2 years and knowing that there is at least one other team that has their own 1B probably going the route of free agency at the same time at AGon.

The Padres are not in control of this situation.

EDIT: Beckett going to the Padres? All I have to say is look at the Red Sox schedule over the first two months in 2010.