The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread

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Yirmiyahu

#1441

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Posts: 718

12/13/09 8:35 PM

SoxFanPJ wrote:
Potentially saving money to make a run at Carl Crawford next year.

Not targeted at you in particular, SoxFan, but can someone explain to me the appeal of Carl Crawford? He's got a career .772 OPS with a low OBP. I know a lot of his appeal is in his baserunning and defense, but I still don't see how that makes him anything more than slightly above average. I think that good left field defense just isn't all that valuable (as opposed to, for instance, good defense at CF or SS), which is especially true of the Sox, considering that Fenway's LF can hide a lot of defensive deficiencies.

I'm open-minded, considering how many people have mentioned him as a premier FA next year, and maybe I'm missing something about him.

terriblehondo

#1442

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Rookie

Posts: 43

12/13/09 8:35 PM

left coast bosox fan wrote:
I do prefer the free agent route because I am an advocate of keeping the potential future long term rotation of Buchholz, Lester, Kelly, Tazawa & Bowden intact for now. That's a lot of bang for the buck. I'll grant that you can't count on it but, I see no reason to break it up for a less cost effective game changer at this point.

I also do not want Theo to tie our hands with a longer than acceptable contract. If we are going to go over, I want it on the $$ side not the years side. To me, Bay max 3, Holliday max 5, Beltre max 3, Johnson max 2. I'd rather not have them than cave on the years.

While I would love it if that rotation comes through. But I do not think that will be the case. Lester is a given Clay I think is going to be OK, I did have some doubts about his head. If 2 of the other 3 work out I will be happy. I agree with more dollars less length but my max lengths would be a year less than yours.

terriblehondo

#1443

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Rookie

Posts: 44

12/13/09 8:43 PM

Yirmiyahu wrote:

SoxFanPJ wrote:
Potentially saving money to make a run at Carl Crawford next year.

Not targeted at you in particular, SoxFan, but can someone explain to me the appeal of Carl Crawford? He's got a career .772 OPS with a low OBP. I know a lot of his appeal is in his baserunning and defense, but I still don't see how that makes him anything more than slightly above average. I think that good left field defense just isn't all that valuable (as opposed to, for instance, good defense at CF or SS), which is especially true of the Sox, considering that Fenway's LF can hide a lot of defensive deficiencies.

I'm open-minded, considering how many people have mentioned him as a premier FA next year, and maybe I'm missing something about him.

Watching him last year it looked like he really turned the corner as far as patience at the plate. Wasting pitches and just trying to get on base instead of hacking away. I do not know if the numbers bear this out. But living in Florida I watch a lot of Rays and Marlins and that was just my personal evaluation.

charliezink16

#1444

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Posts: 254

12/14/09 12:16 AM

OK I know nobody cares, but any chance the Sox bring back Charlie Zink? Any chance another team wants to sign him after his amazing 2009 campaign?

Why give 100% when 35 can get you paid and laid. -Kenny Powers

AMarshal2

#1445

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Posts: 9077

12/14/09 12:32 AM

Aaron
Senior Moderator
SoxProspects Forum

charliezink16 wrote:
OK I know nobody cares, but any chance the Sox bring back Charlie Zink? Any chance another team wants to sign him after his amazing 2009 campaign?

Similar to Keith Law, we should institute a $5 fine for baiting.

aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field.
joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.

templeUsox

#1446

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Posts: 15145

12/14/09 1:23 AM

Ian
Northeast Scout
SoxProspects.com

charliezink16 wrote:
OK I know nobody cares, but any chance the Sox bring back Charlie Zink? Any chance another team wants to sign him after his amazing 2009 campaign?

jspearlj1

#1447

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Veteran Member

Posts: 4989

12/14/09 1:25 AM

I'm starting to think this charliezink16 fellow is indeed Charlie Zink.

If that's the case... what temple said.

Yirmiyahu

#1448

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Posts: 720

12/14/09 1:40 AM

In all fairness, this did pop up a week ago:

http://twitter.com/AmalieBenjamin/status/6471859627

DCRi

#1449

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Posts: 1212

12/14/09 2:43 AM

Veteran Member

Following up my much earlier post about Johnson and LaRoche.

Career Stats	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Johnson - 8 seasons	89	409	487	.273	.402	.447	.849
Adam LaRoche - 6 seasons	136	402	306	.274	.343	.491	.834
2009
Johnson	8	62	66	.291	.435	.405	.840
LaRoche	25	83	69	.277	.401	.488	.890

Based on these stats I think LaRoche, who is younger and more durable, would be a better choice.

Yirmiyahu

#1450

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Posts: 721

12/14/09 3:41 AM

DCRi wrote:
Following up my much earlier post about Johnson and LaRoche.

Career Stats HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS

Nick Johnson - 8 seasons 89 409 487 .273 .402 .447 .849

Adam LaRoche - 6 seasons 136 402 306 .274 .343 .491 .834

2009

Johnson 8 62 66 .291 .435 .405 .840

LaRoche 25 83 69 .277 .401 .488 .890

Based on these stats I think LaRoche, who is younger and more durable, would be a better choice.

Based on those rate stats, I'd actually take Johnson, whose OBP makes up for his lack of slugging, in my opinion. He's also is a better defensive 1B. The real question is his durability. If Johnson can be had for a cheap 1-year deal, he could be replaced at the trade deadline if he was injured or underperforming. Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are more likely to be available then than they are right now, and (depending on the standings) Scott Rolen or Derrek Lee might be available as half-season rentals.

Anyway, I hope it doesn't come down to Johnson/LaRoche. My first choice would be that one of Gonzalez/Fielder/Cabrera can be had, and my second choice is Adrian Beltre for reasonable money.

ADD: Wasn't trying to advocate for Johnson. I only meant to opine that his rate stats were better than LaRoche's.

Last Edited By: Yirmiyahu 12/14/09 3:58 AM. Edited 1 time.

hletterhart

#1451

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Posts: 28

12/14/09 3:46 AM

Yirmiyahu wrote:

DCRi wrote:
Following up my much earlier post about Johnson and LaRoche.

Career Stats HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS

Nick Johnson - 8 seasons 89 409 487 .273 .402 .447 .849

Adam LaRoche - 6 seasons 136 402 306 .274 .343 .491 .834

2009

Johnson 8 62 66 .291 .435 .405 .840

LaRoche 25 83 69 .277 .401 .488 .890

Based on these stats I think LaRoche, who is younger and more durable, would be a better choice.

Based on those rate stats, I'd actually take Johnson, whose OBP makes up for his lack of slugging, in my opinion. He's also is a better defensive 1B. The real question is his durability. If Johnson can be had for a cheap 1-year deal, he could be replaced at the trade deadline if he was injured or underperforming. Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are more likely to be available then than they are right now, and (depending on the standings) Scott Rolen or Derrek Lee might be available as half-season rentals.

Anyway, I hope it doesn't come down to Johnson/LaRoche. My first choice would be that one of Gonzalez/Fielder/Cabrera can be had, and my second choice is Adrian Beltre for reasonable money.

Give me LaRoche in a heartbeat.

Nasty Nick Johnson is averaging a whopping 57 games played over the last three seasons.

That's horrid.

FenwayTheHardWay

#1452

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Posts: 1728

12/14/09 4:13 AM

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hletterhart wrote:
Nasty Nick Johnson is averaging a whopping 57 games played over the last three seasons.

No idea where you're getting that. Games played by Nick Johnson:

07: 147
08: 38
09: 133

Three year average: 106

"Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez

Yirmiyahu

#1453

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Posts: 722

12/14/09 4:28 AM

FenwayTheHardWay wrote:
No idea where you're getting that. Games played by Nick Johnson:

07: 147
08: 38
09: 133

Three year average: 106

147 games was 2006. He played 0 games in 2007.

AMarshal2

#1454

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Posts: 9078

12/14/09 11:09 AM

Aaron
Senior Moderator
SoxProspects Forum

DCRi wrote:
Following up my much earlier post about Johnson and LaRoche.

Career Stats HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS

Nick Johnson - 8 seasons 89 409 487 .273 .402 .447 .849

Adam LaRoche - 6 seasons 136 402 306 .274 .343 .491 .834

2009

Johnson 8 62 66 .291 .435 .405 .840

LaRoche 25 83 69 .277 .401 .488 .890

Based on these stats I think LaRoche, who is younger and more durable, would be a better choice.

I absolutely agree there is an argument for LaRoche when considering durability (though you really need a platoon partner for him). However, I stand by my argument that Johnson is a better hitter, and using the best offensive metrics available to us today, it is not debatable.
Nick Johnson wOBA:
2006: .405
2007: DNP
2008: .374
2009: .373
career: .371
Bill James 2010: .375

Adam LaRoche wOBA:
2006: .379
2007: .346
2008: .357
2009: .357
career: .353
Bill James 2010: .361

It has been thoroughly demonstrated that OBP is more important than SLG, and thus OPS is not the best metric for evaluating hitters.

edit: spelling

aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field.
joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.

jdb

#1455

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Posts: 341

12/14/09 11:32 AM

My thing with Johnson is his injury concerns. We are eating 9 million on Lowell bc of his I just dont see us replacing him with Johnson. I like Johnson but cant trust that he will stay healthy. He regressed on D last season as well. Can we count on him rebounding there also? I would rather have Kotchman and his GG D out there. He is also at the age where a breakout season is very possible. I wouldnt be shocked if MaxRam gets a lot of starts behind the plate against LHP and Vmart goes to first on those days.

SoxFanPJ

#1456

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Veteran Member

Posts: 85

12/14/09 12:06 PM

Nick Johnson was really coming into his own before injuries robbed him of basically two whole seasons. If the debate is between Johnson and LaRoche, its an easy choice in my mind, its going to take to many years and dollars to sign LaRoche, Johnson is probably going to take 1 year plus an option or a 2 year deal at reasonable money. It gives you great production for your money and gives you flexibility if he gets hurt again or a more attractive long term option at a corner IF comes available. No sense in locking yourself into LaRoche for 3-4 years and have to subsidize him somewhere in a year or two when you want to upgrade the team again or if Lars forces his way onto the roster.

SoxSail

#1457

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Posts: 430

12/14/09 12:47 PM

jdb wrote:
My thing with Johnson is his injury concerns. I like Johnson but cant trust that he will stay healthy. He regressed on D last season as well. Can we count on him rebounding there also? I would rather have Kotchman and his GG D out there. He is also at the age where a breakout season is very possible.

On the one hand, if you can get Johnson cheaply, not only does he have a better bat and better defense than LaRoche, but he also would add that flexibility. The problem I have with this, is roster crowding. It leaves almost no room for Kotchman should Johnson go down. I think that if Lowell can play as a backup, and we don't get Beltre then we may be stuck in the same situation as last year, with he and Youk splitting 3B, and Youk, V-Mart and either Kotchman or Johnson sharing 1B duties. Kinda underscores the need for a AAA 3B huh? Too bad we don't have one.

mpaxisa

#1458

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Posts: 128

12/14/09 12:48 PM

Lackey's apparently taking a physical for the Sox.

Link

SoxFanPJ

#1459

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Veteran Member

Posts: 86

12/14/09 12:57 PM

Lackey taking a physical? Interesting. Given the elbow inflammation that sidelined him at the start of last year it makes sense to check him out, but free agents don't usually consent to physicals until after a contract has been agreed upon right? If Boston does a physical which its Doctors report as bad and that leaks out it seems like it would kill some of his value on the market. Seems like a risky bet unless he is close to a deal.

Duffman545

#1460

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Veteran Member

Posts: 1171

12/14/09 12:59 PM

Beat me to it, by a solid 10 minutes too.

Last Edited By: Duffman545 12/14/09 1:01 PM. Edited 1 time.

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The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread