The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread in The Archives Forum

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The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread

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TokenWilliams		#1401	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 614 12/12/09 12:31 AM	Duffman545 wrote: Considering Portland weather in April, I don't think they'll need to worry about limiting his starts- he won't make a start until mid-May. I dont like to get into advanced projections on prospects. Especially one who barely has a full year of professional experience, but if he is truly as advanced as the reports say then there is no reason to believe it's out of the realm of possibility he'll be able to pitch in the majors next year. A lot of pitcher make it to the show at 20/21 and a lot of them do alright. Porcello and Hanson are two from last season that jump right now. Price and Feliz are probably even better examples as they started in the minors and came up later in the year. Porcello went right from single A to the majors. Disclaimer: This next part isn't suggesting he doesn't need to improve all areas of his game to a degree. But if you agree with the reports He doesn't need to work on fastball command. He already has developed a plus change up and breaking ball. He can work both sides of the plate at different planes. Basically, it sounds as if he needs experience and to learn how to attack hitters, etc. Experience is what it is and you can't really learn to attack hitters unless you are challenged.
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hletterhart		#1402	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 25 12/12/09 5:55 AM	TokenWilliams wrote: Duffman545 wrote: Considering Portland weather in April, I don't think they'll need to worry about limiting his starts- he won't make a start until mid-May. I dont like to get into advanced projections on prospects. Especially one who barely has a full year of professional experience, but if he is truly as advanced as the reports say then there is no reason to believe it's out of the realm of possibility he'll be able to pitch in the majors next year. A lot of pitcher make it to the show at 20/21 and a lot of them do alright. Porcello and Hanson are two from last season that jump right now. Price and Feliz are probably even better examples as they started in the minors and came up later in the year. Porcello went right from single A to the majors. Disclaimer: This next part isn't suggesting he doesn't need to improve all areas of his game to a degree. But if you agree with the reports He doesn't need to work on fastball command. He already has developed a plus change up and breaking ball. He can work both sides of the plate at different planes. Basically, it sounds as if he needs experience and to learn how to attack hitters, etc. Experience is what it is and you can't really learn to attack hitters unless you are challenged. In the last six seasons, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgarner, Felix Hernandez, and Scott Kazmir are the six pitchers who have reached the majors at 20 years-old. If Casey can add a tick or two onto his fastball, then he is going to absolutely pwn the upper minors this year, and will make an impact in Boston in August/Sept/Oct. Last Edited By: hletterhart 12/12/09 6:05 AM. Edited 1 time.
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ancientsoxfogey		#1403	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4410 12/12/09 9:36 AM Veteran Member	Let's see what happens if/when he gets to AAA before we draw any conclusions about what he might or might not do for the big club this season. Assuming he shows up well at AA. As I've said previously, I think AAA might be the big minor league test for him.
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MVPedroia15		#1404	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 37 12/13/09 11:49 AM	Boston Globe Padres, Sox can't agree on Gonzalez For the moment, discussions between the Red Sox and Padres concerning first baseman Adrian Gonzalez are going nowhere, according to a major league source. And it's for the obvious reason - compensation. Padres GM Jed Hoyer, certainly familiar with Boston's inventory, is asking for Clay Buchholz and righthanded pitching prospect Casey Kelly or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland. The Red Sox, at least for the time being, won't include Kelly or Westmoreland. With former Sox scouting director Jason McLeod now assisting Hoyer, the emphasis will be even more on trying to get Boston's best prospects. One teammate indicated Gonzalez has made Boston his preferred destination if he should be dealt. But for now, manager Bud Black feels Gonzalez will be a Padre to start the 2010 season. Black said the team and Gonzalez have discussed the constant trade rumors. "You know, he knows. He's been around long enough,'' said Black. "He's been traded a couple times. He's got a great adviser in John Boggs. I think there's been enough open dialogue between the Padres' front office and Adrian. I've given him my spiel. I'm sure he's had some other conversations with players about the whole thing. He's aware of what's going on, and I don't suspect that it will affect him or his on-field performance.'' Gonzalez isn't the type to make waves if he can't get to Boston and has to stay in San Diego and play for a bad team, but don't expect him to like it either. Gonzalez wants to play for a winner and that seems far in the distance in San Diego. Will there always be a market for Gonzalez? Of course. But the Red Sox, a large-market team, are interested now, and it would be an opportunity lost for the Padres. The Mariners and Mets may also want Gonzalez now. By next year, Prince Fielder could become major trade bait, putting another power-hitting first baseman on the market. And there's always the possibility that the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera is in play. I didn't know they were still even talking about a deal. I thought it was a given that the Pads weren't gonna move him.
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Nolson20		#1405	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 379 12/13/09 11:56 AM	MVPedroia15 wrote: Boston Globe Padres, Sox can't agree on Gonzalez For the moment, discussions between the Red Sox and Padres concerning first baseman Adrian Gonzalez are going nowhere, according to a major league source. And it's for the obvious reason - compensation. Padres GM Jed Hoyer, certainly familiar with Boston's inventory, is asking for Clay Buchholz and righthanded pitching prospect Casey Kelly or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland. The Red Sox, at least for the time being, won't include Kelly or Westmoreland. With former Sox scouting director Jason McLeod now assisting Hoyer, the emphasis will be even more on trying to get Boston's best prospects. One teammate indicated Gonzalez has made Boston his preferred destination if he should be dealt. But for now, manager Bud Black feels Gonzalez will be a Padre to start the 2010 season. Black said the team and Gonzalez have discussed the constant trade rumors. "You know, he knows. He's been around long enough,'' said Black. "He's been traded a couple times. He's got a great adviser in John Boggs. I think there's been enough open dialogue between the Padres' front office and Adrian. I've given him my spiel. I'm sure he's had some other conversations with players about the whole thing. He's aware of what's going on, and I don't suspect that it will affect him or his on-field performance.'' Gonzalez isn't the type to make waves if he can't get to Boston and has to stay in San Diego and play for a bad team, but don't expect him to like it either. Gonzalez wants to play for a winner and that seems far in the distance in San Diego. Will there always be a market for Gonzalez? Of course. But the Red Sox, a large-market team, are interested now, and it would be an opportunity lost for the Padres. The Mariners and Mets may also want Gonzalez now. By next year, Prince Fielder could become major trade bait, putting another power-hitting first baseman on the market. And there's always the possibility that the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera is in play. I didn't know they were still even talking about a deal. I thought it was a given that the Pads weren't gonna move him. I figured they were and this was the move being talked about quietly behind the scenes as Theo and Jed know each other so well it is easy not to get a leak. But at the same token I don't see us giving up Clay and either Kelly/Westmoreland. Maybe we will see the Sox try and stay afloat in 2010 and not make a major move with the hope of making a major deadline deal for either Cabrera or Gonzalez, preferably Gonzalez.
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Guidas		#1406	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 119 12/13/09 11:58 AM	MVPedroia15 wrote: Boston Globe Padres, Sox can't agree on Gonzalez For the moment, discussions between the Red Sox and Padres concerning first baseman Adrian Gonzalez are going nowhere, according to a major league source. And it's for the obvious reason - compensation. Padres GM Jed Hoyer, certainly familiar with Boston's inventory, is asking for Clay Buchholz and righthanded pitching prospect Casey Kelly or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland. The Red Sox, at least for the time being, won't include Kelly or Westmoreland. With former Sox scouting director Jason McLeod now assisting Hoyer, the emphasis will be even more on trying to get Boston's best prospects. I didn't know they were still even talking about a deal. I thought it was a given that the Pads weren't gonna move him. Well, if they really want him then they're going to have to overpay like they didn't want to do last off-season with he-who-shall-not-be-named, only this time with prospects. If it were me I would trade Kelly and Westmoreland right now for a prove MLB all star. And I'm the guy who said Westmoreland should be untouchable. But he won't be near the MLB roster until 2012 earliest, and despite the hype I think Kelly is still a year away at least. So if you want Gonzalez, Theo, suck it up, swallow hard and make the deal. Cause these are two guys - Hoyer and McLeod - that you cannot fool on this deal.
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MVPedroia15		#1407	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 38 12/13/09 12:06 PM	It sounds like Buchholz is required for any deal, which I am okay with. I think we can work around Westmoreland/Kelly though. If the Lowell deal goes through, we can offer up MaxRam, and then we can give one of Kalish/Reddick and some others. I agree with Guidas in that I would give Buchholz/Westmoreland, but I guess Theo doesn't want to part with the pups. If those two (Clay/Westy) get it done though, I think thats a very fair deal for both sides. C'mon Theo, get it done...
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Nolson20		#1408	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 380 12/13/09 12:11 PM	MVPedroia15 wrote: It sounds like Buchholz is required for any deal, which I am okay with. I think we can work around Westmoreland/Kelly though. If the Lowell deal goes through, we can offer up MaxRam, and then we can give one of Kalish/Reddick and some others. I agree with Guidas in that I would give Buchholz/Westmoreland, but I guess Theo doesn't want to part with the pups. If those two (Clay/Westy) get it done though, I think thats a very fair deal for both sides. C'mon Theo, get it done... That is the part where the Hoyer/McLeod in San Diego may make it harder to go around. I don't think they are lowering their price all that much. It will be interesting to behold going forward as if we trade Buchholz we would need to get a Lackey type player in my view. Or if we have any hope of trading him at the deadline we would need Lackey as well to surrender Clay. We will see what happens but I don't think we can move Hoyer off easily from Westmoreland and Kelly. Your proposal is offering up Ramirez, which if we land him I doubt Hoyer would have much interest on. Kalish may hold some interest but it wouldn't be in the mold of Westmoreland or Kelly. I think at the end of the day it is going to take Clay and one of Westmoreland/Kelly.
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MVPedroia15		#1409	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 40 12/13/09 12:26 PM	Let's look at this long term for a second. Say the package is indeed Clay/Westmoreland for Gonzalez (We'd probably throw in some lesser prospects, and maybe even Kotchman) The reasons people are hesitant to deal Clay are his potential to be an ace, and the fact that Beckett is coming off the books next year. Yes, Clay COULD be an ace. At this point in his career, it looks as if at worst he is a number 4 starter, and at best, an ace. That's a large spectrum, but you have to give to get, and if Clay is what it takes to get a Gold Golve 1B/the lefty bat we desperately need/a young all star/a guy who would by all accounts tear up Fenway, then so be it. As for Beckett coming off the books, next year, Beckett, Halladay, and Lee are all free agents. We can choose one of the three and still have an ace and the front of the rotation. And we'd have the money to do so b/c Gonzo is extremely cost effective. And if we sign Chapman and let him develop for two years, he'd be ready by 2012. With him and Kelly coming up, we'd have two young guys with very high ceilings to replace Clay with. As for Westmoreland, its a classic case of trading potential for production. Westy is a prospect, and has never played a game above A ball. Gonzo is proven, and we need him now. If we sign him to an extension, he'll be here for at least 8 more years, taking him to age 35. That means 8 more drafts/international free agent signing periods in which to replace Westmoreland. What it comes down to is that you have to give to get, and we need Gonzalez in our lineup. I hope this gets done, but I still feel like the chances are below 5% unfortunately. I said at the time that Hoyer to SD helps the chances of a deal, but in retrospect I think I was wrong. The only thing that Hoyer/McLeod means is that there is no fooling them with prospects we don't value as highly, and that any deal will be EXTREMELY fair.
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Nolson20		#1410	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 381 12/13/09 12:35 PM	MVPedroia15 wrote: Let's look at this long term for a second. Say the package is indeed Clay/Westmoreland for Gonzalez (We'd probably throw in some lesser prospects, and maybe even Kotchman) The reasons people are hesitant to deal Clay are his potential to be an ace, and the fact that Beckett is coming off the books next year. Yes, Clay COULD be an ace. At this point in his career, it looks as if at worst he is a number 4 starter, and at best, an ace. That's a large spectrum, but you have to give to get, and if Clay is what it takes to get a Gold Golve 1B/the lefty bat we desperately need/a young all star/a guy who would by all accounts tear up Fenway, then so be it. As for Beckett coming off the books, next year, Beckett, Halladay, and Lee are all free agents. We can choose one of the three and still have an ace and the front of the rotation. And we'd have the money to do so b/c Gonzo is extremely cost effective. And if we sign Chapman and let him develop for two years, he'd be ready by 2012. With him and Kelly coming up, we'd have two young guys with very high ceilings to replace Clay with. As for Westmoreland, its a classic case of trading potential for production. Westy is a prospect, and has never played a game above A ball. Gonzo is proven, and we need him now. If we sign him to an extension, he'll be here for at least 8 more years, taking him to age 35. That means 8 more drafts/international free agent signing periods in which to replace Westmoreland. What it comes down to is that you have to give to get, and we need Gonzalez in our lineup. I hope this gets done, but I still feel like the chances are below 5% unfortunately. I said at the time that Hoyer to SD helps the chances of a deal, but in retrospect I think I was wrong. The only thing that Hoyer/McLeod means is that there is no fooling them with prospects we don't value as highly, and that any deal will be EXTREMELY fair. That may be true but it isn't like he is asking for the moon in this instance either, I think they would be fools not to get both Clay and one of Westmoreland/Kelly back.
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DCRi		#1411	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1206 12/13/09 12:38 PM Veteran Member	I am not sure I believe the Globe report, or, at least, there is more to the story. If all SD wants for AGon is Buchholz and Westmoreland or Kelly, then there should be a deal. There has to more to it, unless Epstein really is worried he would be trading a future Hanley or a pitching version of Hanley. But even so, AGon is in his prime and should hit a ton for the Sox as well as providing outstanding D. Other than Hanley he probably is the best player the Sox could get in a trade, and it doesn't look like Hanley will be available anytime soon. He is exactly the kind of player the Sox need, and the asking price is not steep. If anything the Sox could come out ahead. This is the kind of deal that truly improves the Sox without great pain. Yes, the Sox then have to get another pitcher, but there are some out there. So I come back to my opening point. There has to be more to this. It occurs to me that perhaps the Sox really do not want to move Youk to 3B.
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AMarshal2		#1412	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9069 12/13/09 12:43 PM	There really doesn't have to be more to it. It's possible the Red Sox don't think that Clay + Kelly/Westmoreland for Adrian Gonzalez is a good trade for their franchise. Is that so wrong? aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep. tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
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Archie Graham		#1413	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3054 12/13/09 12:58 PM	The reason to be hesitant on trading Clay is because the 2011 pitching staff becomes Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield. Expecting Casey Kelly to rocket through the system with no speed bumps, or for Arodis Chapman to be anything more than a reliever would be irresponsible of this front office. And your "don't worry, we'll sign Beckett, Halladay, or Lee" next year just doesn't match up with the philosophy the Red Sox have displayed. 15 minutes from now Halladay could be traded to Anaheim with an extension, and Lee could get an extension from Philly. I'd love to have Gonzalez, but 1st/3rd base is a position the Red Sox likely have no Yankee competition for the next 8 years. I would prefer not to deal the "motherload" of our farm system for a first baseman.
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Nolson20		#1414	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 382 12/13/09 12:59 PM	Archie Graham wrote: The reason to be hesitant on trading Clay is because the 2011 pitching staff becomes Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield. Expecting Casey Kelly to rocket through the system with no speed bumps, or for Arodis Chapman to be anything more than a reliever would be irresponsible of this front office. And your "don't worry, we'll sign Beckett, Halladay, or Lee" next year just doesn't match up with the philosophy the Red Sox have displayed. 15 minutes from now Halladay could be traded to Anaheim with an extension, and Lee could get an extension from Philly. I'd love to have Gonzalez, but 1st/3rd base is a position the Red Sox likely have no Yankee competition for the next 8 years. I would prefer not to deal the "motherload" of our farm system for a first baseman. I agree completely.
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jspearlj1		#1415	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4986 12/13/09 1:01 PM	I still don't get why people seem so willing to deal Clay. If the jays want Kelly plus a little extra for Halladay with an extension that's a much better bang for your buck move. But buck and one of Kelly/Westmoreland... eh, it's OK but I'd rather keep them and get Holliday. As much as all that money to Holliday would hurt it, wouldn't hurt anywhere near as much as giving up a likely dirt cheap #2 starter who has true ace potential as well as another superstar potential prospect in either Kelly or Westmoreland.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#1416	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1725 12/13/09 1:47 PM Veteran Member	My thought process is this: if you give up Kelly for Halladay, you're trading a future cheap building block for a current expensive win now piece. This aligns with the interests of both teams. If you give up Buchholz, you're giving up a current cheap win-now guy for a current expensive win now piece. Yes, Halladay is clearly an upgrade from Clay, but giving up Buchholz negates a lot of the value that Halladay provides. If you give up Clay, you end up paying for an ace but after you effectively get a mid-rotation guy. So what's the point in that scenario? "Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez
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jspearlj1		#1417	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4987 12/13/09 1:56 PM	I was talking more about dealing Clay in a Gonzalez deal but was using the possible Halladay deal as another way to improve the team that IMO would be a better idea than dealing Clay for Adrian Gonzalez. I understand the appeal of a cheap slugger, but there are better ways to build the ball club than dealing Clay for Gonzalez. Clay for Hanley, Felix or Lincecum those types yeah I understand. However, there are many other options to get what Adrian Gonzalez would give you without giving up a cheap #2 pitcher with ace potential. It's basically the question of what would you rather give up Clay or the money savings between what Adrian Gonzalez' extension would be versus Matt Holliday's contract (or taking on Miguel Cabrera's contract). Those 3 are mostly interchangeable in my mind. Sure Adrian is the most desireable of the 3 because of age and contract, but he'll also be the most expensive to obtain because of that. If we were a mid market team it would make more sense, however, the sox are much better suited to spend money on a guy like Holliday and gamble on Clay achieving his potential rather than dealing Clay to save some money on Adrian Gonzalez. If the money difference between Adrian Gonzalez (plus an extension) and Holliday or Cabrera were so large that you could go into the FA market and buy a Clay replacement (like Lackey for example) than I understand that move, however that will not be the case.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#1418	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1727 12/13/09 2:23 PM Veteran Member	jspearlj1 wrote: I was talking more about dealing Clay in a Gonzalez Ah crap, my bad. That said, I'd still apply the same logic to a Gonzalez deal. Kelly would make sense, Clay wouldn't. I'd also agree that just acquiring Holliday for cash is a better option than to expend a bunch of talent on a bat. "Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez
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DCRi		#1419	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1208 12/13/09 2:46 PM Veteran Member	I will amend my earlier post to state that I would not trade Buchholz unless a replacement was lined up, i.e. Halladay or Lackey, in other words, another high quality pitcher. Also, I am not advocating the trading of Buchholz, but I am not opposed to it in the right deal. A better deal to me than trading for AGon would be getting Zimmerman for 3B and for him I would give up Buchholz, again only if a replacement is lined up. I agree that the Sox cannot go into the season without that position filled either by Buchholz or another top pitcher.
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DCRi	Sox going after Nick Johnson?	#1420	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1211 12/13/09 3:16 PM Veteran Member	From Baseball Prospectus today: "The Red Sox have found the asking price on free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre too high for their liking, and are more likely to try to sign first baseman Nick Johnson as a free agent and move first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base once the trade of third baseman Mike Lowell to the Rangers for catching prospect Max Ramirez is completed. …" If this is the direction the Sox are going, why not bring back Laroche? (Assuming Laroche backs off his current long term contract demand). I think he is a better hitter now than Johnson, and Johnson is not quite the fielder he used to be. Link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9849 (subscription required)
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The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread