I don't think that is flawed logic. The pick doesn't belong to the Jays yet. The movement of picks doesn't happen until all Type A and B free agents have signed. There is the POTENTIAL that this deal will cost us a first round pick. There is also the potential it will cost us a 2nd or a 3rd rounder. We don't know what pick it will cost us, only that it will cost us a pick. Weighing the odds of which pick it will cost us is reasonable given that we don't know the absolute answer at this point.
Trade Rater: Sox sign Scutaro
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chavopepe2 |
#21 | |||
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Token -
I don't think that is flawed logic. The pick doesn't belong to the Jays yet. The movement of picks doesn't happen until all Type A and B free agents have signed. There is the POTENTIAL that this deal will cost us a first round pick. There is also the potential it will cost us a 2nd or a 3rd rounder. We don't know what pick it will cost us, only that it will cost us a pick. Weighing the odds of which pick it will cost us is reasonable given that we don't know the absolute answer at this point. |
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soxcentral |
#22 | |||
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I agree with jspearl, this really should get an incomplete until we know what the compensation is. It looks far worse if you gave up a 1st round pick vs. a
2nd/3rd.
That said, I still gave this a D. This is good money for another average player given out at a time when the team sorely lacks star power in its everyday players. And as others have pointed out, this wasn't the most creative solution to filling our hole at SS. |
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flap1919 |
#23 | |||
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If it was more than 2 years garunteed I'd give it an F, the two years bumped me up to a B (really B-). I don't think they are done signing guys so I
give it a bump up. If the only FA they sign is Scutaro I'd downgrade to a D+ (if we don't get Holliday and/or Lackey/RP).
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DaveLNH |
#24 | |||
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I follow the Jays pretty closely, I like it... I like Jed L, but we need to protect ourselves. If Jose I, progresses ahead of schedule, we can deal with it as it comes. The Billy W pick offests whatever we gave up Pinkerton Baseball |
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cwaaa |
#25 | |||
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Gave it a D. Scutaro is going to have to repeat his career year for me to be happy with him as Boston's starting shortstop. I don't see that happening.
"I mean Enrique Gonzalez is such a good and useful pitcher for the Sox, right? That's a rheotorical question, he's not." -CZink, in a fit of
rage about his boy being passed over for yet another start.
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JimRiceRocks |
#26 | |||
cwaaa wrote: So who do want to fill that role that would make you happier?
"You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan
"No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan |
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tdrowe |
#27 | |||
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Much more reasonable dollars than I anticipated. The best FA option at SS, I like Scutaro as the short-term answer, but hope the Sox improve 1B/3B a lot (and
choose Holliday over Bay), or else this signing might have less value.
Last Edited By: tdrowe 12/04/09 11:13 PM.
Edited 1 time.
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terriblehondo |
#28 | |||
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I voted D. Only because of the lost of draft pick. If they had not given up a pick I would say B. I hate to give up picks.
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TokenWilliams |
#29 | |||
chavopepe2 wrote: Chavo - the point is you have to grade this at the point in time it's taken place. You cannot igore that they have to give up a first round pick for him because as of now they do. What that means is Theo is willing to give up a first round pick to sign him. There is no way you can guarentee that you won't. Your logic is similar to sayin that Bronson Arroyo for Willie Mo was a good trade because they were able to parlay that into 2 picks down the road. No I understand that's a stretch, but the overall point is you judge things for what they are not what they could eventually be. Regardless, I still think a second round pick is too much. Who would I rather have? Alex Gonzalez at 1 year, less money and no draft picks lost.... Guzman at 1 year, higher $$ and most likely a nothing prospect |
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chavopepe2 |
#30 | |||
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This entire exercise is about predicting future outcomes. In analyzing the trade and giving it a grade we are predicting the odds of all possible outcomes. Why
is it such as stretch to then also also weigh all possible costs in the deal? Your analogy is completely off base because that is a retrospective analysis.
This is a prospective task whereby we attempt to analyze all possible benefits and their likelihood of happening against all possible costs and there
likelihood of happening.
The draft pick cost in the deal is: ((the odds of signing no more type A FA) * (the value of the 1st rounder)) + ((the odds of signing one more type A FA) * (the value of the 2nd rounder)) + ((the odds of signing two more type A FA) * (the value of the 3rd rounder)
Last Edited By: chavopepe2 12/05/09 9:28 AM.
Edited 1 time.
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ancientsoxfogey |
#31 | |||
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Chavo, I think you can look at "this exercise" as either rating it according to current circumstances or rating it relative to potential future
outcomes. Depends on one's perspective. The thread, after all, does ask us to rate this acquisition now.
Thinking prospectively, to me the more open question, rather than the loss of the draft pick, is how Scutaro performs -- does he bomb under the circumstances of advancing age, his true ability level relative to his 2009 performance, and/or the Boston environment, does he thrive, or somewhere in between? To rate the acquisition now, you also have to make some advance judgment about that, and we've seen some comments which suggest that people are taking their performance expectations into account. Finally, even if we consider the likelihood of another type A acquisition, not all type A's are created equal. Do we look at the Scutaro acquisition differently if (1) the Sox sign Holliday as the second type A, or (2) Bay goes elsewhere, the Yankees jump on Holliday, and the Sox end up signing one of the Atlanta relievers as another type A? In the latter circumstance the Sox would have given up two high draft picks to sign Scutaro and a RP. Would such an outcome change the viewpoints in this forum regarding BOTH acquisitions? |
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AMarshal2 |
#32 | |||
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Agreed with jsperalj, I don't feel like I can respond to this poll until I know if they signed another Type A. It changes my vote at least one letter
grade, if not two.
The reason I don't agree with Chavo is that the Red Sox front office has an idea of what the odds are that they sign another Type A. By contrast, I don't know what the odds are. If the Red Sox think it is "likely" that they sign another type A, then I'd give it a B. If the Red Sox think it is "unlikely" then it's a C- or so. Scutaro was the best fit and his contract is reasonable, but if this is likely the only type A that they will sign, then I think they could have gotten creative and been better off. edit2: The only way I can think about giving grades is by grading what I think of the front offices' decision making at the time. If you put up a poll on the Smoltz signing, I would still give it a B or so. I liked the signing, I liked the thinking. It didn't work out. Usually it's much easier to know what information the Red Sox had when they made X decision. We know the stats, many of the trade alternatives, the free agent alternatives, and the contracts involved. In this case, we're missing a big piece of information that is critical to the analysis.
aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he
can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
Last Edited By: AMarshal2 12/05/09 11:49 AM.
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calculatedreciprocity |
#33 | |||
JimRiceRocks wrote:Well we could have resigned Alex Gonzalez for a fraction of the money without coughing up the draft pick. I think he'd have been a decent stop gap for us to see what we had with Iglesias and how Lowrie is holding together. I also have faith that the Red Sox could have done something with the draft pick. |
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redsoxdiehard30 |
#34 | |||
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Alex Gonzalez is not good enough to be our starting SS. Yes Scoot cost a draft pick, but more than likely it will be a 2nd rounder. Theo values draft picks as
much as any GM, I trust his decision making and our future. I give the move a B.
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GreatByOhEight |
#35 | |||
redsoxdiehard30 wrote:And yet, Porcello is on the Tigers... I gave it a B, mostly because the money and years were much easier to swallow then I thought they would be (I expected something like 3/20 guaranteed). I also feel that the Sox will sign another FA, thus making the pick a 2nd rounder. Also, short of messing with a good thing (moving Pedroia over to SS), settling for an OBP under .300 (Everett or Crosby), or making fruitless attemps at pie-in-the-sky trade (Hanley or Reyes), this was the only real option available.
"I want the Yankees to limp out of New York like they just did a guest spot on Oz" - Chach
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chavopepe2 |
#36 | |||
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I don't see how that contradicts what I was saying, Aaron. I agree that the front office has a much better read on the likelihood that they sign another
type A. That doesn't mean we can't make predictions based on media speculation, various quotes that have been floated, and the general competitive
interest.
When we grade a transaction we should be weighing all possible outcomes. I think we already do it on the production/benefit side of the equation. The Smoltz/Penny/Saito signings last year are great examples. We grade them trying to weigh the likelihood of them busting vs. the likelihood of them breaking out. The Hermida trade is another good example. A lot of people wrote about the likelihood that he gets an opportunity to break out. Since all we're really doing here in grading these transactions is a cost/benefit analysis, why can't we also try to weigh the likelihood of all possible costs? It is an inexact science, but I think it is worse to assume there is a 100% chance that it costs us a first rounder and a 0% chance that it costs us a 2nd/3rd rounder, then it is to try to (as best we can) determine the actual odds of these outcomes coming to fruition. |
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AMarshal2 |
#37 | |||
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In terms of putting an evaluation down that shows my perspective, I don't agree at all. I have a sense for how the front office evaluates the probabilities
of everything you mentioned because the majority of the information the front offices is using to make the decision is available to us. With guys like
Smoltz/Penny/Saito/Hermida, we can all look at the stats and watch the player play or at least read an evaluation from those who have seen him and may know. We
have historical information to understand how a player will come back from injury. There are other players like Hermida throughout history that can give us
clues as to what his chances are of being a productive player. With the case of Scutaro, I have no idea what the percentages are on whether
the Red Sox think they will sign another Type A. We may think we can speculate (e.g. media, quotes, etc.), but I think that speculation is baseless. The
information is held exclusively by the Red Sox and thus differentiates this signing from all the other examples you could give. How much weight you want to put
on the pick is up to you. You may like/hate the signing so much that the pick is largely irrelevant. For me, that is a big piece of the puzzle.
aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he
can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong. |
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eyse |
#38 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 13 12/05/09 3:18 PM |
C - is how I rated. Fairly indifferent at the moment. The Sox did very well on the terms of the contract.
The strength of this move is left to be decided by the Red Sox subsequent signings. Signing Adrian Beltre is now completely essential, as it is the only clear way to improve the left-side infield defense. I'm more worried about Scutaro's play in the field than, what hes going to bring to the plate. I believe he will hit with an OPS >.700, slightly OBP heavy. If he can consistently play average to slightly above avg. defense, he will provide decent value for this contract. Of course, we (almost )all want Matt Holliday, and now he brings the added advantage of justifying the loss of a first round pick. |
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albertpujolsin2012 |
#39 | |||
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The 2012 option is a mutual one that will pay the Venezuelan infielder $6 million if the club picks it up, and $3 million if
Scutaro picks it up plus a $1.5 million buyout.
I don't like the 2012 option. Essentially, the Sox will have him in 2012 for $6 million which may block Iglesias or cost the Red Sox between $1.5 and $3 million if they don't, which are more dollars that could be expended on a player that is not on the roster that year. Plus, Scutaro is coming off of a career year and has historically been a utility guy. Meaning, he will likely be a utility guy this year as well. If Lowrie can prove that he is going to be healthy by the All-Star Break, my bet is that he vies for time with Scutaro. I give it a D. |
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ancientsoxfogey |
#40 | |||
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albert, if the Sox don't think Scutaro should be their SS in 2012 or they have a better option, the worst that can happen is a $1.5 million hit for the
buyout. If Scutaro exercises the $3 mllion option it would be for the utility IF position, which the Sox might well pay upwards of $2 million for under any
circumstances. So maybe a $1 million overpay there.
Reading between the lines, I'm wondering if we may be kidding ourselves about Lowrie's health. I get the sense that Sox management is really skeptical that he is ever going to be right in the foreseeable future, and they are a lot closer to the medical situation than we are. Their view might be biased a bit by the Nomar precedent, but they know the medical details. I give the Scutaro acquisition a D. I'm skeptical about what his performance is going to be, I don't like losing a draft pick to take the chance, and I wish the Sox had gotten more creative in addressing the situation, along the lines others have already mentioned. |
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