I agree that the fact that Scutaro had his career year at the age of 33 is a huge red flag that this was just an anomaly. However, his BABIP was right around the league average, with FanGraphs reporting a lot of the offensive increase in his ability to take a walk and make contact when he does swing. Bill James and FanGraphs see him regressing a bit next year to around .265-.270 with 7-10hr, ~30 doubles, .350 OBP, and .720 OPS.

His defense at SS has been all over the place, year-to-year, but in his first full year as a primary SS, he was about average (UZR/150 = 1.0).

The point of all this is that, while he is not a perennial all-star, he looks to be about league average or better in terms of position. Assuming there were no draft pick compensation issue, I think you have to realize he is clearly the best option at SS, especially if he would consider a 2-year deal. It may be a risky way to spend the money, and he may be an overpaid utility infielder by the end of 2010, but he could also stabilize the position for a couple years while we figure out what our internal options really are.

Now, the biggest concern everyone has been citing is the draft pick we would give up. The question becomes, is it worth the potential that comes along with an extra first-round pick to keep getting absolutely nothing from our major league SS for the next year or two? Of course, we would all love the extra pick, but you have to realize the value that comes with solidifying the major league roster. And, while the Sox have done a good job drafting, there is always risk associated with the draft. In fact, I'd say the chances that you get two decent years of production out of Scutaro is higher than the chance of two years of MLB production out of that pick.