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Posts: 336
11/28/09 12:40 PM
I don't know how you could argue a kid well ahead of the age curve in AA and posting a 900+ OPS in his last 300 PAs as a tweener. Probably the same people who had similar things to say about Pedroia, Youk, and Lester.
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Posts: 203
11/28/09 12:41 PM
Yirmiyahu wrote: This whole discussion reminds me a bit of J.D. Drew. Batting average around .280, good OBP, strong arm, questions around whether he's good enough to play center, but plays great defense in RF, won't hit 30 HR's or 100 RBI's... Sounds good to me.
Posts: 380
11/28/09 12:45 PM
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Posts: 11
11/28/09 1:17 PM
Nexus wrote: Josh - You're right. After rereading his post comparing to my response, I should not have said that. USG - my apologies. I read it, assumed you had looked at his '09 OPS at AA, compared it to his short stint at Salem, and made your post-promotion slump conclusion. His May was downright brutal and definitely falls in the "post-promotion slump" category. Obviously, my point was his 2nd half in AA actually outperformed his time in Salem... unlike Navarro who was lost at the plate in AA this year. With Kalish, all I saw was a 21 year old who, after a disasterous May and "ehh" June, performed at a level offensively that rivaled only Santana in Akron. Again, this after coming back from injury and adjusting to advanced pitching. Maybe it was luck... maybe it was the EL trying to figure this guy out... Regardless, the important numbers improved across the board throughout the year. I don't know how you could argue a kid well ahead of the age curve in AA and posting a 900+ OPS in his last 300 PAs as a tweener. Probably the same people who had similar things to say about Pedroia, Youk, and Lester.
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11/28/09 2:23 PM
Posts: 337
11/28/09 3:28 PM
Pantera wrote: The way that you can argue this is that his 900 OPS over his last 300 PAs was driven by his last 28 ABs in which he had a 400+ BABIP. In July and August he had an .860 OPS. Besides, performance in the second half in the minors can be misleading. Most of the best prospects are either in AAA or in the majors by the time August roles around. Plus 300 PAs isn't enough time for the league to figure out your weaknesses and attack them enough to materially effect your performance. I'm not saying that Kalish's performance, especially in the second half isn't relevant or that those that think he's not going to start in the majors are right. However I don't think that strong performance over roughly two months in the eastern league proves very much.
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11/28/09 3:50 PM
Pantera wrote: The way that you can argue this is that his 900 OPS over his last 300 PAs was driven by his last 28 ABs in which he had a 400+ BABIP. In July and August he had an .860 OPS. Besides, performance in the second half in the minors can be misleading. Most of the best prospects are either in AAA or in the majors by the time August roles around. Plus 300 PAs isn't enough time for the league to figure out your weaknesses and attack them enough to materially effect your performance.
Posts: 338
11/29/09 7:49 PM
2) Do you have any idea how little sense your point about promotions there makes?
Why would "most of the best prospects" be in AAA or the Majors by August? Using Project Prospect's top pitching prospects (since that's what's out at this point), Drabek and Mejia two of the top 18 pitching prospects in the game, were in the Eastern League at that point last year
but it's not like seeing Matusz twice that month would have significantly changed his numbers. I don't see how five or six guys being promoted makes a difference here.
Posts: 1167
11/29/09 8:02 PM
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The idea that the quality of the play at minor league levels isn't as strong in the second half isn't one that was made up by me. Keith Law consistantly makes reference to it in his chats. It makes perfect sense too. As time goes on, the stronger players in any given league are advanced, not necessarilly because they have gotten better but because injuries and lack of effectiveness of major league players requires that players be advanced. It follows then that as time goes on, the quality of play at specific minor league levels must be worse because so many players are advanced by necessity as opposed to merrit. To flesh this out lets use a specific example. In the second half of the year, Clay Buchholz was placed into the Red Sox rotation due to any injury to Tim Wakefield, a major league pitcher. If the idea I postulated "made little sense", the Buchholz's performance would have been automatically replaced by a pitcher with the same quality. Obviously this didn't happen.
Posts: 1168
11/29/09 8:30 PM
Posts: 8840
11/29/09 9:21 PM
Posts: 89
11/29/09 9:42 PM
flap1919 wrote: Norm in Oregon wrote: flap1919 wrote: I personally think Reddick is the tweener... You're going to have to back that up with some numbers. In no league where he's had a season with more than 150 PAs has Reddick ever slugged less than .520. So there's no question about his power potential for right field. That leaves center where he's even more qualified with the bat. We're left with his defense in center as the only issue. We already know his arm is the best in the system. So you've got to be saying that his speed and his routes aren't good enough, is that correct? Why do I have to back it up with numbers, I just PERSONALLY don't see him starting in Boston at any of the OF positions. I just feel that by the time he's ready for full time duty and a spot opens up he'll be passed by other guys in the system. The fact that they traded for Hermida this year essentially locks him in to Pawtucket this year. I like Reddick a lot I just don't love him as a prospect. I'm just not that in to Reddick, he's a pretty good prospect but I don't think he's good enough for the Sox to plan a spot for him during the offseason. He could/will certainly get a shot at some point, I just don't think it's with the Sox.
Norm in Oregon wrote: flap1919 wrote: I personally think Reddick is the tweener... You're going to have to back that up with some numbers. In no league where he's had a season with more than 150 PAs has Reddick ever slugged less than .520. So there's no question about his power potential for right field. That leaves center where he's even more qualified with the bat. We're left with his defense in center as the only issue. We already know his arm is the best in the system. So you've got to be saying that his speed and his routes aren't good enough, is that correct?
flap1919 wrote: I personally think Reddick is the tweener...
Posts: 3065
11/29/09 11:00 PM
Posts: 2485
11/30/09 11:43 AM
Pantera wrote: To look at the other side of the coin, what types of things could stand in the way of Kalish's development? In other words what are his offensive weaknesses? What does he have to work on in 2010 to realize his potential?
Posts: 1432
11/30/09 2:52 PM
flap1919 wrote: Why do I have to back it up with numbers, I just PERSONALLY don't see him starting in Boston at any of the OF positions. I just feel that by the time he's ready for full time duty and a spot opens up he'll be passed by other guys in the system. The fact that they traded for Hermida this year essentially locks him in to Pawtucket this year. I like Reddick a lot I just don't love him as a prospect. I'm just not that in to Reddick, he's a pretty good prospect but I don't think he's good enough for the Sox to plan a spot for him during the offseason. He could/will certainly get a shot at some point, I just don't think it's with the Sox.
Posts: 1433
11/30/09 3:15 PM
Pantera wrote: To flesh this out lets use a specific example. In the second half of the year, Clay Buchholz was placed into the Red Sox rotation due to any injury to Tim Wakefield, a major league pitcher. If the idea I postulated "made little sense", the Buchholz's performance would have been automatically replaced by a pitcher with the same quality. Obviously this didn't happen.
Posts: 373
11/30/09 4:42 PM
Norm in Oregon wrote: flap1919 wrote: I personally think Reddick is the tweener... In no league where he's had a season with more than 150 PAs has Reddick ever slugged less than .520. So there's no question about his power potential for right field.
Posts: 339
11/30/09 8:53 PM
This is only true when looking at the minor leagues as a whole...not when looking at a specific level. In the case of AA, your statement would imply that more players are promoted from AA to AAA then from A+ to AA within a given year. I certainly can't think of any reason why this would be true.
And your argument about having Matusz in the league or not is also flawed.
Posts: 340
11/30/09 9:14 PM
If this is the case, shouldn't Kalish have then struggled in AA as one of those guys that got promoted from A+ to AA?
It's not like he was there all season long, and then the light suddenly flicked on once there was some mass exodus of talent from the level or something.
On the flip side you could say that when Bryan Price was traded Casey Kelly more than filled his shoes, which is indicative of talent improving during the second half of the season (disregarding that Kelly did not pitch for the whole season & that he didn't replace Price).
Wait, what? You're the one pointing out Kalish's lack of power over 73 ab's in the AFL ... then coming back and saying strong performance over a half a season in the EL doesn't prove much?
Posts: 341
11/30/09 9:19 PM
Cem21 wrote: Pantera wrote: To look at the other side of the coin, what types of things could stand in the way of Kalish's development? In other words what are his offensive weaknesses? What does he have to work on in 2010 to realize his potential? Pantera- I saw this from you a page back. For what could stand in the way of Kalish's development some of it stems, to me, from what Joshv02 had mentioned about his GB% being pretty high in the past. How will he progress in continuing to add lift to his swing while also being able to mantain consistent contact rates is the question for me. Basically, not getting too jerk happy and rolling over balls. Another piece is being able to consistently drive balls in favorable counts and taking advantage of mistakes. That is a big thing for me when hitters are in the latter stages of developing towards the major leagues. One first-hand instance during the last week of the season when I saw Kalish sticks out in regards to this: He was ahead in the count during an AB and the pitcher threw him a really bad, flat fastball. About 88 MPH and right over the plate. Kalish put a nice swing on the ball and made no mistake with it, launching it to RF for a home run. I had done an interview with him right after he was promoted to AA and one of the things I asked him was about hitting with some more power during the year. Kalish mentioned that he really wasn't doing anything different and a ball he'd roll over the previous season he was now driving. That comment stuck out to me after that AB. Maybe he didn't feel like he was doing anything different, but for me he was doing something different. Kalish was recognizing pitches he could drive and also was attacking them in that manner. Part of it stems from trusting his hand once again. That's been documented. Part of it is also a maturation in approach to let it fly on balls that can be handled and a comfort zone built from seeing pitch after pitch. So, what does he have to work on in 2010 to realize his potential? I'd say it is a continuation of the approach he showed in 2009 while taking chances at lifing some more balls when he gets the ones he can handle. With his natural strength, he's capable of hitting them out of the park or hard into the gap as shown in his power numbers from 2009.
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