Update: Roy Halladay to Philly in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Update: Roy Halladay to Philly

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Sibby Sisti		#81	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 312 11/27/09 12:52 PM	TokenWilliams wrote: Sibby - a couple things... 1. the Sox traded a major leaguer for Tek and Lowe so if anything the Sox were Toronto, the sellers, and Seattle was Boston, the aggressor. 2. Stripping the farm for Pedro would be the equivalent of stripping the farm for Felix Hernandez not Halladay. Completley different points in their careers. Yes, Pedro required a big money contract like Roy will, but Pedro was entering his prime, not at the back end of it, best case scenario. Also, Rose and Pavano had not done nearly what Buchholz has done, and their scouting reports weren't as good as Kelly's are so I dont think it's a fair comparison. Scouting has come such a long way since then as far as the reports available to us as fans and to other teams as well. I just think it's silly to strip the farm for Halladay when there are arms available via free agency. Are they as good? No, but Lackey is close enough for me when it allows you to keep your prospects for future use in a trade or for your team and also keep Buchholz who right now is your 3rd starter, looking good and is 5 years away from free agency. 5 years away. Token: agree with you against clearing the system of top prospects for Halliday. I was more into defending Dan Duquette, as he did not strip the farm system to acquire key players who, ultimately were responsible for our 2004 World Championship. BTW, it was Pavano and Armas, Jr., not Rose, to Toronto in the Pedro deal.
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SexyBanana		#82	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1381 11/27/09 12:59 PM John Gray Lead Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	I doubt Halladay would strip out farm baren, I also believe you will see us pick up a few draft picks this year, If we think halladay can be a horse for us for 4-5 years if not more. You make a fair deal everyday and twice on sundays
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jdb		#83	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 295 11/27/09 1:42 PM	SexyBanana wrote: I doubt Halladay would strip out farm baren, I also believe you will see us pick up a few draft picks this year, If we think halladay can be a horse for us for 4-5 years if not more. You make a fair deal everyday and twice on sundays I dont think giving up Buch is fair though. Sure Halladay is an elite pitcher and a top 5 guy who has proven he can pitch in the best division in MLB, but is it worth giving up Buch and 5 years of being cost controlled who an executive I quoted a page or so back predicted to make 25 Million over that time. I would rather have Buch and Lackey than Halladay. If we can get him without Buch I am all for it. To have 3 guys at the top that could win 20+ any given year and a 4-5 of Dice and Buch would be great. Granted the FO know more about Buch and how they value him than we do but its just my preference. If they do include him I am not in a position to question Theo. He knows that system better than all of us put together.
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OCD SS		#84	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 673 11/27/09 1:42 PM Veteran Member	SexyBanana wrote: I doubt Halladay would strip out farm baren, I also believe you will see us pick up a few draft picks this year, If we think halladay can be a horse for us for 4-5 years if not more. You make a fair deal everyday and twice on sundays Except that the Jays aren't trading 4-5 years of Halladay, they're trading one. I can see adding something for the privilege to sign him to a market rate contract, but not at the level being discussed. Halladay can essential choose his next team, so its not as if he doesn't have some say in the matter. I also think people are a bit gung ho on Halladay's last 2 seasons (over 7 WAR each). Those have been great, but prior to that he's been roughly comparable to the last 2 years of Beckett (~5.5 WAR). It seems a bit of a stretch to me to think he's going to keep producing at this level through his age 33-38 seasons. If you trade for him I think you have to assume that he's not going to be this good going forward... *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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IBSmith85		#85	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 85 11/27/09 2:33 PM	Sibby Sisti wrote: Token: agree with you against clearing the system of top prospects for Halliday. I was more into defending Dan Duquette, as he did not strip the farm system to acquire key players who, ultimately were responsible for our 2004 World Championship. BTW, it was Pavano and Armas, Jr., not Rose, to Toronto in the Pedro deal. Those pesky Toronto Expos. "I will repeat as Rookie of the Year" - Dustin Pedroia
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BoSox81		#86	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 79 11/27/09 2:39 PM	if the Jays are really looking for a major league ready bat + arm + prospects they can forget about it
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TokenWilliams		#87	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 555 11/27/09 2:40 PM	Sibby good point on Armas, Jr and I missed your point on defending The Duke... I don't think he gets enough credit for what he did around here. He had a different ownership group than Theo had and he was smart enough to let the Seton Hall connection of Johnny V and Mo Vaughn walk, sign Nomar to the long-term deal when he did, get Pedro, Tek and Lowe, pick up our favorite Irishman Troy O'Leary and sign Jose Offerman, errr
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flap1919		#88	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3043 11/27/09 2:46 PM	He seems like the type of pitcher OCD that is going to age well to me. Just my observations but he isn't a guy that relies heavily on velocity. No data to back me up, but a heavy groundball guy from my observations over the years seem to age better than the heavy fly ball guys. I think Halladay's added value to me comes from his ability to consistently go deep into games (and that was already in the AL East) and his ability to potentially start games 1, 4, and 7 in a playoff series. Imagine being able to go Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Halladay in a 7 game series. That's why I think CC was so damn valuable to the Yankees this year, he shortned their rotation when they needed it most, pitching depth had been a bit of an achilies heel for the Yankees in the past 7-8 years. Halladay essentially makes it so you only need 1 or 2 relievers a games 90% of his starts. That's especially important when you see how deep into games guys like Dice-K and Buchholz typically don't go. I'm not going to throw out any specific names but I would easily give up 4-5 of the Sox current top 20-30 if guys like Kelly, Westy, and Buchholz aren't included. You give them 1 OF prospect (other than Westy and hopefully Kalish), 1-2 SP (I don't think they trade Tazawa for cultural reasons), 1 SS prospect (Iglesias can't be traded), and 1 C (we still keep 2 of the Wagner/Expisito/Fed-X group), or you could substitute a 1B (we still keep either Lars/Rizzo) for one of the other positions. I think the Sox farms systems strength is how incredibly deep it is. You could pull any 4 or 5 of our guys from 3-30 in the rankings and there is a pretty comparable player a few rankings down at those positions. The question is can they get away with an offer of 4-5 quality guys or is Toronto going to try to hold out for 1-2 of the studs plus a couple spare parts?
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IBSmith85		#89	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 86 11/27/09 3:01 PM	flap1919 wrote: He seems like the type of pitcher OCD that is going to age well to me. Just my observations but he isn't a guy that relies heavily on velocity. No data to back me up, but a heavy groundball guy from my observations over the years seem to age better than the heavy fly ball guys. I think Halladay's added value to me comes from his ability to consistently go deep into games (and that was already in the AL East) and his ability to potentially start games 1, 4, and 7 in a playoff series. Imagine being able to go Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Halladay in a 7 game series. That's why I think CC was so damn valuable to the Yankees this year, he shortned their rotation when they needed it most, pitching depth had been a bit of an achilies heel for the Yankees in the past 7-8 years. Halladay essentially makes it so you only need 1 or 2 relievers a games 90% of his starts. That's especially important when you see how deep into games guys like Dice-K and Buchholz typically don't go. I'm not going to throw out any specific names but I would easily give up 4-5 of the Sox current top 20-30 if guys like Kelly, Westy, and Buchholz aren't included. You give them 1 OF prospect (other than Westy and hopefully Kalish), 1-2 SP (I don't think they trade Tazawa for cultural reasons), 1 SS prospect (Iglesias can't be traded), and 1 C (we still keep 2 of the Wagner/Expisito/Fed-X group), or you could substitute a 1B (we still keep either Lars/Rizzo) for one of the other positions. I think the Sox farms systems strength is how incredibly deep it is. You could pull any 4 or 5 of our guys from 3-30 in the rankings and there is a pretty comparable player a few rankings down at those positions. The question is can they get away with an offer of 4-5 quality guys or is Toronto going to try to hold out for 1-2 of the studs plus a couple spare parts? Yes. I want that. Ever since the first report at the deadline last season, that rotation just keeps rolling through my head like a scrolling message board. Im with everyone else in the dont move Buch in this deal, and also those who dont want to see any of the Buch/Kelly/RWM moved either, but the last two would not hinder the deal in my eyes for that message board to become reality. Seriously how fun would a Sox vs Yanks series in the 2010 ALCS of: Game 1: Halladay vs. Sabathia Game 2: Beckett vs. Burnett Game 3: Lester vs. Pettitte repeat 4-6 Game 7: Hallday vs. Sabathia You feature the two megastars the two former Marlins flamethrowers and the two lefty homegrowns ESPN Classics would have a field day ADD: I also agree that is where CC's immense value truely came to fruition for the Yanks, he shortened everything for them. The rotation and the bullpen. "I will repeat as Rookie of the Year" - Dustin Pedroia Last Edited By: IBSmith85 11/27/09 3:06 PM. Edited 2 times.
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OCD SS		#90	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 675 11/27/09 3:32 PM Veteran Member	flap1919 wrote: He seems like the type of pitcher OCD that is going to age well to me. Just my observations but he isn't a guy that relies heavily on velocity. No data to back me up, but a heavy groundball guy from my observations over the years seem to age better than the heavy fly ball guys. Is this true? If he looses some zip on this 2-seamer (and isn't that practically guaranteed to happen given his age?) I think it's kind of reasonable to expect guys to start lifting the ball against him more. He's never really had insane K/9's, and a large reason he can go deep is because he's so efficient. I don't think you can ignore that whoever gets him is going to get him at 33 yrs old to start. His last 2 amazing seasons are the result of an increased K rate while keeping the same walk rate, and I 'd want to know what's behind that before I pencil him in at 7 WAR seasons going forward. At the very least assuming that you're going to keep getting 7 WAR, and basing the package you offer on that assumption seems like folly to me. flap1919 wrote: I'm not going to throw out any specific names but I would easily give up 4-5 of the Sox current top 20-30 if guys like Kelly, Westy, and Buchholz aren't included. You give them 1 OF prospect (other than Westy and hopefully Kalish), 1-2 SP (I don't think they trade Tazawa for cultural reasons), 1 SS prospect (Iglesias can't be traded), and 1 C (we still keep 2 of the Wagner/Expisito/Fed-X group), or you could substitute a 1B (we still keep either Lars/Rizzo) for one of the other positions. I think the Sox farms systems strength is how incredibly deep it is. You could pull any 4 or 5 of our guys from 3-30 in the rankings and there is a pretty comparable player a few rankings down at those positions. The question is can they get away with an offer of 4-5 quality guys or is Toronto going to try to hold out for 1-2 of the studs plus a couple spare parts? If you can get him for what you're suggesting, which apparently is 5 of our top 20-30, as long as it isn't Buchholz or # 1, 2, 3, 7, or 8, and we get to keep at least one of 5 or 6 and also one of 11, 19, or 20, then yeah, I think you make that deal. Wait, who are you actually willing to trade for him again? *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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SexyBanana		#91	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1384 11/27/09 3:53 PM John Gray Lead Staff Writer SoxProspects.com	I highly doubt we trade Buch for Halladay. And Toronto is trading one year of Halladay, but we are trading for him with the intention on signing him to a long term deal. Therefore, we would be trading for a long term stay eventually.
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jdb		#92	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 297 11/27/09 4:21 PM	From Heymans twitter... http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/6114777586 ive heard halladay-shopping jays like jesus montero of #yanks (plus hughes/joba?) and casey kelly of #redsox (plus buchholz?) I think if they like Kelly as the centerpiece this is a great deal.
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Guidas		#93	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 91 11/27/09 4:27 PM	SexyBanana wrote: I highly doubt we trade Buch for Halladay. And Toronto is trading one year of Halladay, but we are trading for him with the intention on signing him to a long term deal. Therefore, we would be trading for a long term stay eventually. Agree. I would trade Kelly in this deal only because at best, the experts have him projected as a 2-3, and he probably won't hit the MLB until 2011, and won't be in for a full season (barring abusing his arm) until 2012. By then the Sox can find another 2-3 (Pimental, open market, trade, etc.). 1 year of Halladay - which is all Toronto has to deal right now - equates roughly type A compensation, plus a bit because after all you're getting a year of one of the 5 best pitchers in the AL. So Kelly + Bowden, and perhaps another piece like Navarro. I don't think Theo trades Buchholz in this deal but I've been wrong before (although I still don't think Nora Jones should've won that Grammy over Springsteen).
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Irishfoxxx		#94	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 291 11/27/09 4:43 PM Veteran Member	jdb wrote: I think if they like Kelly as the centerpiece this is a great deal. I think after all the posturing is over (Jays will demand Buch + Kelly; Sox will keep Buch/Kelly/RWM/etc untouchable), the package the Sox offer will ultimately be Kelly+ and the Jays will seriously consider it.
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OCD SS		#95	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 676 11/27/09 4:51 PM Veteran Member	SexyBanana wrote: I highly doubt we trade Buch for Halladay. And Toronto is trading one year of Halladay, but we are trading for him with the intention on signing him to a long term deal. Therefore, we would be trading for a long term stay eventually. The way I'm thinking about this is that Toronto is essentially acting as a broker for Doc; you wouldn't pay the broker as much as you would for the person who actually owns what you're buying. That still doesn't mean that the Sox should pay the full market rate for Doc and then pay a premium in talent on top of that; it's essentially giving Toronto a huge amount of value for something that isn't theirs to sell. If the Sox are going to be that inefficient about how they deploy their resources then they should've been willing to go much harder after CC. I could see Kelly as being the centerpiece of a reasonable package, but not Clay (and certainly not both). *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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ScottLevison		#96	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 76 11/27/09 5:47 PM	Sibby Sisti wrote: ScottLevison wrote: Bottom line to me: No Buchholz. No Bowden. Period. And since it is now Thanksgiving, let us now give thanks that Dan Duquette is nowhere near the GM's office these days. I shudder to think how much he'd strip-mine the farm system for Halladay. ....like he stripped the farm system for Pedro? IIRC, The Expos would have settled for Pavano and a different prospect instead of Tony Armas Jr. I could see Pavano included in a deal for Pedro, but when you send two top prospects, you CAN be accused of overpaying at times. I think of the Greg Swindell swindle and the Ed Sprague Jr. deal...I can't help but imagine who DD would have given up in the Schilling and V-Mart deals...
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ScottLevison		#97	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 77 11/27/09 5:51 PM	mredsox89 wrote: Nolson20 wrote: ScottLevison wrote: Bottom line to me: No Buchholz. No Bowden. Period. And since it is now Thanksgiving, let us now give thanks that Dan Duquette is nowhere near the GM's office these days. I shudder to think how much he'd strip-mine the farm system for Halladay. No Bowden? Can you care to explain why Michael Bowden would be a hang up in a Roy Halladay deal for you? I'm as big of a fan of Bowden as probably anyone, but if a deal for Halladay was centered around Bowden I would be absolutely thrilled. No way in hell Bowden holds up a deal for Halladay. Wasan't Bowden one of the untouchables in a proposed Halladay deal near the deadline?
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flap1919		#98	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3045 11/27/09 6:04 PM	OCD SS wrote: Wait, who are you actually willing to trade for him again? I tried that already OCD, but buffs moved it, you pretty much figured it out though. I'm in the give them a crapload of quality guys theme. I don't know if Toronto would go for it, but I feel like the Sox have to take advantage of their depth. I think they have a lot of guys at different positions that are interchangable prospect wise. I'm hoping you can trade away some of the guys at the top of their position (say Lars) without mortaging your futute because you feel confident about Rizzo. Same deal goes for a guy like Reddick, because you would still have guys like Westy, Kalish, Lin and Fuentes not too far behind him. Same way I feel like they have 3 pretty good catching prospects so parting with one of them wouldn't kill your system.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#99	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3299 11/27/09 6:14 PM Veteran Member	You'd be overpaying, flap. He'll be 34 next year and has ONE year remaining on his contract. Other teams are well aware of this. The Jays have very little leverage here and will hold on to him until they find someone that will overpay for him and if not, take the two picks. They'd be worth more than what they'll be receiving, especially if this trade goes down to the trade deadline next July.
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flap1919		#100	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3047 11/27/09 6:40 PM	I don't see how you can say 4 guys in the sox 4-20 range is overpaying and then say they'd be better off just taking the two picks. Ask Tornoto how waiting for the picks worked out with Burnett after he opted out. The point is that the sox have great depth in their system and can afford to part with a quality OF prospect or two, a quality SP prospect or two, a 1B prospect and a C prospect. I'm not saying you make sure you give up your best guys at those positions but I feel like they have the depth at some key postitions to be able to work out a trade without having to give up Buchholz. Obviously Toronto is going to say they want Buchholz and Kelly but everyone (including the Yankees) know the Sox wouldn't give up those two in a trade for Halladay (King Felix is a different story). Halladay had a lot more value at 1.5 years then he has now, I think everyone involved realizes that. There are going to be a lot of teams that kick the tires on a Halladay trade but how many of the other teams would actually pull the trigger on a one year rental if they didn't plan to lock him up. I think the Sox still would.
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Update: Roy Halladay to Philly