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CS% & Options at Catcher

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Yirmiyahu

#61

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Posts: 613

11/23/09 3:22 PM

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buffs44444 wrote:
Of course, acquiring a starting catcher and moving Victor to first presents a much cleaner solution to the situation. Seems there might be a few opportunities out there, with all the teams looking to cut payroll for one reason (economy) or another (facilitate a different acquisition).

I wouldn't like this move at all. If V-Mart plays 120 games at catcher (where the average OPS last year was .717) he is one of the most valuable players in the league. If he plays almost all of his games at 1B (where the average OPS last year was .846), he becomes a slightly above average commodity. Considering that he's about an average defender at both positions, and it's obviously much easier to find a good-hitting first baseman than a good-hitting catcher, there should be no reason to move him until he can no longer play the position.

Last Edited By: Yirmiyahu 11/23/09 3:28 PM. Edited 1 time.

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Cem21

#62

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Posts: 2479

11/23/09 3:59 PM

Chris Mellen
Director of Scouting
SoxProspects.com

Yirmiyahu wrote:
I wouldn't like this move at all. If V-Mart plays 120 games at catcher (where the average OPS last year was .717) he is one of the most valuable players in the league. If he plays almost all of his games at 1B (where the average OPS last year was .846), he becomes a slightly above average commodity.

Agreed. They overpaid for Martinez if he is a full-time 1B next season.

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Norm in Oregon

#63

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Posts: 1006

11/23/09 8:05 PM

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I'm in complete agreement. That' why I suggested a breakdown that would have him at DH/1B a little less than half time. He's money behind the plate. What he does need is someone with a glove to back him up. And when he does play first, he and Youkilis at the corners look a lot better than anything else the Sox have right now. He turns 31 in December and getting him out of the catcher's gear regularly should help keep that bat fresh.

Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. ~ Frederick Douglass

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SoxSail

#64

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Posts: 361

11/23/09 10:09 PM

Cem21 wrote:
They overpaid for Martinez if he is a full-time 1B next season.

Maybe this is nitpicking, but it's a sunk cost, so it really depends on who the other 3B and C options are. Sure, if it's Tek, you're not going to get as much value from him as you would from Lowell or some other guys. But if you bring in Shoppach, are their bats similar enough, and do you make enough gains elsewhere (like the 3B glove perhaps) to make the slide worth it a little more often? Perhaps.

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Cem21

#65

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Posts: 2480

11/23/09 11:25 PM

Chris Mellen
Director of Scouting
SoxProspects.com

I see where you are coming from, but you have to consider how the Red Sox value their resources. This is an organization that puts a premium on their young pitching prospects. So much of a premium, that other organizations mumble that Epstein overrates his pitching prospects. For them to trade three young arms, and one of those arms was already established on the major league roster, tells you something about how they valued Martinez because Cleveland got some good talent in return. For a starting catcher that hits the way Martinez does despite some correctable shortcomings with his throwing mechanics, it is a fair price. For a fringe average defensive 1B who projects to produce a tick or two above average, it doesn't sound like that great of a deal.

There isn't a comparable player to Martinez available that would make the move to 1B on a full-time basis worth it and you'd be talking about spinning off more players to get it, if it did indeed exist. That is why they paid the price to acquire him in the first place.

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rangoon82

#66

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Posts: 739

12/01/09 2:08 PM

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Schneider to the Phils on a 2 year deal. Too bad - he is the type of catcher I'd love to see backing up VMart.

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buffs44444

#67

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Posts: 1419

12/01/09 3:41 PM

The Indians and Rays are discussing a trade of C Kelly Shoppach to Tampa Bay

link

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

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Yirmiyahu

#68

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Posts: 637

12/01/09 3:45 PM

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buffs44444 wrote:

The Indians and Rays are discussing a trade of C Kelly Shoppach to Tampa Bay
link

Done.

Looking more and more likely that Varitek is our backup in 2010.

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buffs44444

#69

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Posts: 1421

12/01/09 3:50 PM

Yirmiyahu wrote:
Done.

Looking more and more likely that Varitek is our backup in 2010.

It will be interesting to see if the Rays non-tender Navarro.

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

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Yirmiyahu

#70

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Posts: 638

12/01/09 4:07 PM

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buffs44444 wrote:
It will be interesting to see if the Rays non-tender Navarro.

Navarro's career offensive numbers (.312 OBP, .364 SLG) are even worse than Varitek's past two terrible years (.313 OBP, .374 SLG).

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Nexus

#71

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Posts: 344

12/01/09 4:52 PM

Yirmiyahu wrote:

Done.

Looking more and more likely that Varitek is our backup in 2010.

The Rays plan to obliterate the "most strikeouts as a team" record in 2010.

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buffs44444

#72

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Posts: 1426

12/01/09 5:00 PM

These are the numbers I was looking at with Navarro:
Navarro CS%:
2008: 35.7%
2009: 23.8%

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

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raftsox

#73

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Posts: 1511

12/30/09 11:50 AM

Not necessarily caught stealing numbers, but interesting none-the-less: Link. It turns out that Varitek really is a pretty good defensive catcher.

I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2

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Deanskie

#74

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Posts: 8

12/30/09 1:03 PM

I know it's only one aspect of defense, but... any metric showing Victor Martinez as a better defensive catcher than Joe Mauer and having Jason Varitek head and shoulders above the league. I mean... you've gotta question it, right? Or is blocking pitches such a small fraction of a catcher's defensive value that the difference is almost meaningless in the big picture?

Screw the troops. Or at the very least, buy them a drink.

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raftsox

#75

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Posts: 1512

12/30/09 2:29 PM

I would say it's a pretty small part of a catcher's job. I don't think it's anathema to assume that Varitek can actually block balls better than Joe Mauer. I know it's chic to rip on Varitek, but he's pretty good at framing pitches; whereas Mauer isn't known for that quality.
I'm not sure what the calculation method is based on, but the author's admission that Kottaras' numbers are flawed because of Wakefield leaves me skeptical of the overall method, but intrigued nonetheless. The calculation is very likely based upon observation of how many pitches each catcher sees that fall outside of a certain window and how many are actually scored wild pitches. This doesn't account for the actual distance from that window each pitch actually is. Maybe Mauer's suffering from a lot of Francisco Liriano sliders being 18 inches off the plate while Varitek sees Diasuke fastballs 9 inches off the plate; both would be considered "potential wild pitches", but there doesn't seem to be any method to differentiate degree of difficulty.

I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2

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Yirmiyahu

#76

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Posts: 796

12/30/09 7:44 PM

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raftsox wrote:
I'm not sure what the calculation method is based on, but the author's admission that Kottaras' numbers are flawed because of Wakefield leaves me skeptical of the overall method, but intrigued nonetheless. The calculation is very likely based upon observation of how many pitches each catcher sees that fall outside of a certain window and how many are actually scored wild pitches. This doesn't account for the actual distance from that window each pitch actually is. Maybe Mauer's suffering from a lot of Francisco Liriano sliders being 18 inches off the plate while Varitek sees Diasuke fastballs 9 inches off the plate; both would be considered "potential wild pitches", but there doesn't seem to be any method to differentiate degree of difficulty.

Here's his methodology, from an older post:

I'm using the GameDay data to measure how each catcher performed in blocking pitches by looking at their misses (wild pitches + passed balls) and their opportunities (balls in the dirt with runners on base).

[...]

assuming a run value of .27 runs per miss.

So, a) there's no way of differentiating degree of difficulty, b) he's considering a wild pitch to be as much the catcher's fault as a passed ball is, c) each catcher has a very small sample size, d) he assigns a seemingly arbitrary value to each missed ball, e) the inputs (balls in the dirt) are pretty subjective.... And he's admitted some other problems with his numbers:

Before we get to the results, a couple words of warning. There's definitely something up with the scoring of balls in the dirt. Each year had widely varying counts for opportunities, as you can see below.

Year Opportunities Avg. Block %

2005 9271 .84

2006 7375 .77

2007 11523 .86

One big surprise in 2005: Jason Varitek, who the top catcher in 2007, is near the bottom here.

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raftsox

#77

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Posts: 1514

12/31/09 10:49 PM

Grazie

I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2

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ORCoaster

#78

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Rookie

Posts: 45

12/31/09 11:20 PM

We suck at this.

Let's hit some three run homers!!!

I mean, really, when did Earl Weaver die? Who cares if some CSker steals second? Hell, I'm from Oregon and as big an Ellsbury fan as you'll find, but if we can move him for some Weaver-esque bastard who's gonna blast three-run homers, what the hell are we wait'in for? What do we care if some CSker steals second when we're winning 7-3 in the 9th?

My apologies for the adult language, but it's NY's Eve, the wife's away, and I hate losing to the GD Yankees.

Last Edited By: ORCoaster 12/31/09 11:40 PM. Edited 1 time.

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ancientsoxfogey

#79

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Posts: 4477

01/01/10 9:43 AM

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By that logic, what do we care if some Weaver-esque bastard hits a 3-run HR when we're winning 7-3 in the 9th?

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redsoxdiehard30

#80

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Posts: 5

01/01/10 12:51 PM

Does anyone else hope that VTek is not on the roster? I would much rather have Wagner as our backup C for defensive purposes and I'm assuming they both will stink up the joint on offense. I don't buy that a lessened workload will improve Jason's BA, OBP, SLG or any other stat you want to throw out there. He just isn't good at all anymore and his bat speed is bad as well. Plus he probably couldn't throw out Papi trying to steal 2nd. I just believe we need to go in a different direction than Jason.

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