buffs44444 wrote:
Law's analysis on Harden:
When Harden pitches, he's pretty good -- he just doesn't pitch enough, qualifying for just one ERA title before reaching free agency. Harden mostly throws 90-94 mph but will touch 96, and if injuries ever push him to the pen he'd probably be consistently 94-97. His out pitch is a split-change (he calls it a straight changeup, but it has splitter-like action) from 82-87 mph, and he'll also throw a hard slurve at about 81-85 (MLB's pitch f/x calls it a slider, but he apparently calls it a curve). He's changed his approach significantly from when he was with Oakland and was constantly hurt, when he was fastball/true slider/true splitter, and while you can't call him "healthy" right now, he has had two nearly full seasons since missing most of 2006 and '07 with arm trouble. I wouldn't pay him as more than a 25-start pitcher, even though he's a No. 2 starter in terms of stuff, but there is at least the downside of a dominating reliever if more arm trouble means he can't handle even a light starter's workload. One cause for concern -- Harden was suddenly very homer-prone in 2009, and if that's not a fluke, it drops him at least a full grade.
If the Sox pursue him with the intention of signing him to an incentive laden contract they should think about adding relief incentives in case things go in that direction. The best case scenario could have him providing the Sox with options when Papelbon reaches FA and his stuff seems to miss more bats than Bard's. As far as staying healthier as a starter is concerned, the Sox seem to have done a good job keeping Papelbon's shoulder in working order. I don't know much of the specifics about Harden's shoulder issues but the Sox seem to have a program that has yielded good results.
