The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread in The Archives Forum

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The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread

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DCRi		#1041	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1183 11/22/09 9:02 AM Veteran Member	Cemprae, three things: Read the Baseball Prospectus descriptions of Kouzmanoff. There really is no comparison between Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff. Gonzalez may not have the range he once had (something that BP also noted) but he is a magician with the glove and knows how to play his position about as well as any SS in the game. His defensive impact on the Sox this year was quite remarkable. I don't think you will find any analyst who would suggest that Kouzmanoff would have the same impact. A team has a farm system to develop players either to be on its major league team, or to be traded to other teams. They aren't there just to admire. If the Sox are able to get an elite player for the major league team at the cost of "draining" the farm system, the only real question that I think the Sox consider (and why they sometimes will not do it) is whether they are giving up so much that the deal will prevent them from making another deal that they need to make. If the reports of the offers the Sox made last summer for Gonzalez, Halladay etc. are true (and I usually discount news reports of offers) the Sox were perfectly prepared to drain the farm system to get those elite players. And finally, the only reason average players like a Kouzmanoff should be acquired is if there is not a better option and the position absolutely has to be filled. One of the greatest mistakes that many teams make is choking their lineup with average players. Toronto is a good example. They end up having a fairly high payroll but not a championship team. And it is increasingly difficult to get rid of expensive but average players unless they basically are given away, like Rios was. A player like Kouzmanoff is that kind of player, good enough to play for many teams, but not for a team that wants to compete for the post season every year. Last Edited By: DCRi 11/22/09 9:05 AM. Edited 1 time.
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tdrowe		#1042	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1174 11/22/09 1:35 PM	GreatByOhEight wrote: First post in over a year... http://greatbyoheight.u.yuku.com/ Stop lying.
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buffs44444		#1043	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1357 11/22/09 1:41 PM	A look at the free agent pitching market by FoxSports: John Lackey is the No. 1 free-agent starting pitcher. Those who evaluate baseball players, those who acquire baseball players, those who negotiate for baseball players and those who write about baseball players don't always agree. But I think there is consensus about this. I'm wondering about a different question. Who's No. 2? Cafardo's Latest: John Lackey could be a key figure in both teams' plans. If the Sox acquire him, it would allow them to package Clay Buchholz in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, if he becomes available. Buchholz is the chip most teams want in a megadeal. Then the Sox would try to acquire another decent starter or a rehab guy like Ben Sheets as protection. "The Red Sox could be the major player this offseason if certain things fall together for them,'' said an American League general manager. "They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something big happen. BP's On the Beat (Perotto - subscription): The Angels have interest in re-signing both right-hander John Lackey and third baseman Chone Figgins as free agents, but feel they only have the finances to sign one or the other, making Figgins the more likely to return Signing Lackey and making Buchholz available in a deal could potentially free up some major resources to target a big fish in a deal this winter. Interesting..... Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push. Last Edited By: buffs44444 11/22/09 2:06 PM. Edited 1 time.
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TokenWilliams		#1044	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 533 11/22/09 1:42 PM	edit: forget that... Cafardo does bring up an interesting point about potentially signing Lackey inorder to free up Buchholz to trade in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. It'd be very interesting to see what else would have to be included. Lowrie should be enticing for San Diego. Personally, I'd be pretty happy with keeping Rizzo, Kalish and Westmoreland out of a deal. I would package pretty much anyone else up without much sting. I wouldn't let any of those guys become a deal breaker though. Last Edited By: TokenWilliams 11/22/09 1:48 PM. Edited 1 time.
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WillyCoPapi3		#1045	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3936 11/22/09 1:45 PM Veteran Member	I really question the credibility of any sports writer who talks about the Red Sox acquiring Adrian Gonzalez in his article. Trading for Gonzalez is such a pipe dream at this point that it really isn't worthy of a mention. Then again, it's Cafardo so I'm not sure how much credibility he had to begin with. Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher. -FenwayTheHardWay
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chavopepe2		#1046	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1156 11/22/09 1:58 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Just read between the lines. You could take the name Adrian Gonzalez completely out of it, the point that he is making is that if the Sox go after Lackey it would allow them to deal Clay for a bat. It is all just speculation anyways, there isn't much news there. It doesn't have anymore value then the stuff thrown around on this board everyday.
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jspearlj1		#1047	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4956 11/22/09 3:32 PM	I find it highly unlikely the sox sign Lackey to deal Buck and bring in a hitter who will either already be signed to a megadeal (Cabrera) or will need to be soon (Gonzalez). That's an assload of money. Unless they get either Cabrera/Gonzalez to man LF (or move Youk there) they'd still need to get another bat for the lineup. That's an incredibly horrible waste of money and resources. Get Halladay without including Buck, (it can easily be done, just look at the Santana deal and the sox match up well with TOR even without Buck involved and have the talent to do it) Sign Holliday (Might have to get creative with finances here in order to line up the expiring contracts of Lowell and Ortiz). Sign Rafael Soriano (I dont think ATL offers arb to him and M Gonzalez, he's more likely to garner less interest and be a threat to accept arb) Sign or trade for a good glove SS Bay and Wagner net two picks to offset the loss of a pick from signing Holliday as well as the talent given up for Halladay. Really, its not that complicated
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DCRi		#1048	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1184 11/22/09 3:44 PM Veteran Member	That's as good a plan as any I've seen. It has a couple of hitches. Wagner may not get the kind of deal he wants, and could wind up staying with the Sox. I don't that changes the plan except maybe lessening the need for one of the RPs. The other is that Boros seems to be thinking he is going to get Holliday a Teixeira-type deal. Of course, he is posturing, but it probably means he will stretch out the negotiations for as long as possible. If Bay no longer is in the picture, the Sox are in the difficult position of either paying an awful lot for Holliday, or not having either Bay or Holliday. There's a game of chicken going on, and it is tricky.
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buffs44444		#1049	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1358 11/22/09 4:02 PM	jspearlj1 wrote: I find it highly unlikely the sox sign Lackey to deal Buck and bring in a hitter who will either already be signed to a megadeal (Cabrera) or will need to be soon (Gonzalez). That's an assload of money. Unless they get either Cabrera/Gonzalez to man LF (or move Youk there) they'd still need to get another bat for the lineup. That's an incredibly horrible waste of money and resources. Get Halladay without including Buck, (it can easily be done, just look at the Santana deal and the sox match up well with TOR even without Buck involved and have the talent to do it) Sign Holliday (Might have to get creative with finances here in order to line up the expiring contracts of Lowell and Ortiz). Sign Rafael Soriano (I dont think ATL offers arb to him and M Gonzalez, he's more likely to garner less interest and be a threat to accept arb) Sign or trade for a good glove SS Bay and Wagner net two picks to offset the loss of a pick from signing Holliday as well as the talent given up for Halladay. Really, its not that complicated While I agree with DCRi that is a good possible plan, I think there may be other hitters that the team is targeting. If the chips fall right, the team may be looking to upgrade at two positions instead of just one (or if Holliday is too expensive, upgrade another position and re-sign Bay). Remembering that the FO has shown the inclination to put some major packages together when targeting specific players that they liked in the past and then thinking about the talent that could be on the table with some combination of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly, Bard, Lowrie, etc.....there is the potential for a major deal there. The "chips falling" may be a mere function of working with the teams who are most interested in moving assets that the FO might be interested in this winter. Go PATS!!!! Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.
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jdb		#1050	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 274 11/22/09 4:07 PM	jspearlj1 wrote: I find it highly unlikely the sox sign Lackey to deal Buck and bring in a hitter who will either already be signed to a megadeal (Cabrera) or will need to be soon (Gonzalez). That's an assload of money. Unless they get either Cabrera/Gonzalez to man LF (or move Youk there) they'd still need to get another bat for the lineup. That's an incredibly horrible waste of money and resources. Couldnt agree more. Adding Lacky at around 15 Mill per to trade Buch for another big contract doesnt make too much sense. Sign Holliday, upgrade the left side of the I/F and try to get Josh Johnson while not giving up Buch. I dont know if the Marlins would want a package around Bard but they might bite on Kelly plus some others (Lowrie to take over for Uggla, Bowden, Reddick?). I think with it being the offseason the Jays will have more bidders for Halladay and they would have to get knocked off their feet to trade him to us or the Yanks. Last Edited By: jdb 11/22/09 6:27 PM. Edited 2 times.
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mredsox89		#1051	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 845 11/22/09 4:24 PM	jdb wrote: jspearlj1 wrote: I find it highly unlikely the sox sign Lackey to deal Buck and bring in a hitter who will either already be signed to a megadeal (Cabrera) or will need to be soon (Gonzalez). That's an assload of money. Unless they get either Cabrera/Gonzalez to man LF (or move Youk there) they'd still need to get another bat for the lineup. That's an incredibly horrible waste of money and resources. Couldnt agree more. Adding Lacky at around 15 Mill per to trade Buch for another big contract doesnt make too much sense. Sign Holliday, upgrade the left side of the I/F and try to get Josh Johnson while not giving up Buch. I dont know if the Marlins would want a package around Bard but they might bite on Kelly plus some others. I think with it being the offseason the Jays will have more bidders for Halladay and they would have to get knocked off their feet to trade him to us or the Yanks. If you can get Josh Johnson without giving up Buchholz, I would rather have those two than Lackey, and maybe Halladay. I think it is unrealistic to expect Bay/Holliday, Lackey, and a star through trade.
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raftsox		#1052	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1426 11/22/09 4:31 PM	buffs44444 wrote: Gammons: John Lackey is the top pitcher on the market, but he hates Fenway. Alrighty then, that takes care of that...... I'm surprised this isn't well known. There's a semi-famous video of him on the mound in Fenway watching a homer (Manny's?) where he visibly says "I fucking hate this place." I looked for the video for 30 seconds and couldn't find it though. I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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JAlli44		#1053	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 9 11/22/09 4:36 PM	raftsox wrote: buffs44444 wrote: Gammons: John Lackey is the top pitcher on the market, but he hates Fenway. Alrighty then, that takes care of that...... I'm surprised this isn't well known. There's a semi-famous video of him on the mound in Fenway watching a homer (Manny's?) where he visibly says "I fucking hate this place." I looked for the video for 30 seconds and couldn't find it though. I believe it was one of Buchholz's first major leauge starts. It was a day game, the Sox routed Lackey for a bunch of runs in the first few innings. He finally got under control after throwing at Manny. Never liked Lackey since, I'd far rather they trade for Josh Johnson, sign Holliday and resign Gonzalez to platoon at SS with Lowrie. Edit: link here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200708171.shtml It was Buck's first start, Lackey gave up 7 runs in 4 IP. Last Edited By: JAlli44 11/22/09 4:40 PM. Edited 1 time.
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mredsox89		#1054	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 846 11/22/09 5:38 PM	JAlli44 wrote: raftsox wrote: buffs44444 wrote: Gammons: John Lackey is the top pitcher on the market, but he hates Fenway. Alrighty then, that takes care of that...... I'm surprised this isn't well known. There's a semi-famous video of him on the mound in Fenway watching a homer (Manny's?) where he visibly says "I fucking hate this place." I looked for the video for 30 seconds and couldn't find it though. I believe it was one of Buchholz's first major leauge starts. It was a day game, the Sox routed Lackey for a bunch of runs in the first few innings. He finally got under control after throwing at Manny. Never liked Lackey since, I'd far rather they trade for Josh Johnson, sign Holliday and resign Gonzalez to platoon at SS with Lowrie. Edit: link here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200708171.shtml It was Buck's first start, Lackey gave up 7 runs in 4 IP. Yea, but $$$ can make a person forget their hatred. If the Sox offer the most money, he will forget
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cemprae		#1055	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 6 11/22/09 5:39 PM	DCRi wrote: Cemprae, three things: Read the Baseball Prospectus descriptions of Kouzmanoff. There really is no comparison between Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff. Gonzalez may not have the range he once had (something that BP also noted) but he is a magician with the glove and knows how to play his position about as well as any SS in the game. His defensive impact on the Sox this year was quite remarkable. I don't think you will find any analyst who would suggest that Kouzmanoff would have the same impact. A team has a farm system to develop players either to be on its major league team, or to be traded to other teams. They aren't there just to admire. If the Sox are able to get an elite player for the major league team at the cost of "draining" the farm system, the only real question that I think the Sox consider (and why they sometimes will not do it) is whether they are giving up so much that the deal will prevent them from making another deal that they need to make. If the reports of the offers the Sox made last summer for Gonzalez, Halladay etc. are true (and I usually discount news reports of offers) the Sox were perfectly prepared to drain the farm system to get those elite players. And finally, the only reason average players like a Kouzmanoff should be acquired is if there is not a better option and the position absolutely has to be filled. One of the greatest mistakes that many teams make is choking their lineup with average players. Toronto is a good example. They end up having a fairly high payroll but not a championship team. And it is increasingly difficult to get rid of expensive but average players unless they basically are given away, like Rios was. A player like Kouzmanoff is that kind of player, good enough to play for many teams, but not for a team that wants to compete for the post season every year. DCRi... as to your first point... I was hoping the Gonzalez reference was clear... let me take it a bit further... Looking at the numbers, what I was suggesting was... Kouz (like Alex) is more adept with the glove than being a player who is known for his great range... I think the same could be said for Lowell as well with the exception that he has almost NO range... is extremely slow and was not a very good road player last season (one of the things that Theo mentioned as being on his short list of things to improve next year)... I'm not really clear as to what your second point was (prospects/draining the farm)... or I should say... I agree with it completely and am scratching my head as to why you included it... as to your third point about average players clogging the lineup... That's exactly the reason why (imo) Mike has to go... and given the concerns about his ability to play everyday... he'd be clogging the bench as well... The main reason my original post included Beltre and Kouzmanoff is because they would both be cost effective REALISTIC solutions if the FO decided to move Lowell... as opposed to something foolish like... "We should go get Zimmerman"... both players are RH guys with pop... and both played in RH graveyards...
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chavopepe2		#1056	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1157 11/22/09 5:42 PM Senior Forum Moderator	mredsox89 and others - Please do not quote a quote of a quote (in a quote etc.). Just find the relevant information that you are quoting and delete the rest.
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mpaxisa		#1057	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 118 11/22/09 6:35 PM	bighead wrote: buffs44444 wrote: I'd love to sign Harden merely for the chance to be the team where he realizes he could have a HOF career as a closer, and also most likely avoid the injuries from the grind of pitching a 200+ workload. Either way, he's great to watch pitch. He throws with the effort that looks like he's warming up in the bullpen and the gun shows high 90's. Amazing arm...... I've been wondering all offseason why no team has tried to move him to the pen. Is it that nobody has gotten to the point where they have given up on him finally staying healthy or is he resistant to the move? I am intrigued by his potential there. You can make a pretty strong case that relieving is more strenuous than starting. As a starter, you have a routine and you work on a regular schedule. He won't have that luxury as a reliever, there will be up and downs, three days in a row, etc.
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buffs44444		#1058	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1359 11/22/09 7:01 PM	Law's analysis on Harden: When Harden pitches, he's pretty good -- he just doesn't pitch enough, qualifying for just one ERA title before reaching free agency. Harden mostly throws 90-94 mph but will touch 96, and if injuries ever push him to the pen he'd probably be consistently 94-97. His out pitch is a split-change (he calls it a straight changeup, but it has splitter-like action) from 82-87 mph, and he'll also throw a hard slurve at about 81-85 (MLB's pitch f/x calls it a slider, but he apparently calls it a curve). He's changed his approach significantly from when he was with Oakland and was constantly hurt, when he was fastball/true slider/true splitter, and while you can't call him "healthy" right now, he has had two nearly full seasons since missing most of 2006 and '07 with arm trouble. I wouldn't pay him as more than a 25-start pitcher, even though he's a No. 2 starter in terms of stuff, but there is at least the downside of a dominating reliever if more arm trouble means he can't handle even a light starter's workload. One cause for concern -- Harden was suddenly very homer-prone in 2009, and if that's not a fluke, it drops him at least a full grade. Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.
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TokenWilliams		#1059	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 534 11/22/09 8:54 PM	I'm no medical expert, but in talking to people who work exclusively with the mechanics of the human body, it seems like some pitchers may do better in the structured environment as a starter whereas other players would do better as a reliever despite the "non-structure". Starters throw a significant number more pitches than relievers do throughout the course of a seaon no matter if you look at it in it's entirety or just weekly programs. Throwing a pitch is a very unnatural motion for the human arm to make. You couldn't look at an MRI of a major league pitcher and not find rotator cuff or other shoulder damage when compared to the "normal human shoulder". The more pitches leads to more fatigue which can lead to improper mechanics (however slight the change may be). All these things and more can lead to futher injury for a starter. Also, the "non-structure" part of it is somewhat falacy. Teams can create a lot more structure than we give them credit for. A bullpen would not be affective if it were filled with players that needed strict programs, but the Red Sox are pretty structured with Papelbon throughout most of the season allowing them to use him more towards the end. They are very careful to keep his support muscles as strong as possible and put as little wear and tear on it as possible during the season so he stays healthy throughout. Not being experts and not having access to his personal charts it's impossible to say whether Harden would benefit from something like this or not, but I think it's pretty clear some guys have a better chance of staying healthy in the bullpen than they do in the rotation. I want to say "see Kerry Wood," but he's had his issues as a reliever too, but not to the degree so hopefully people will get the point.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#1060	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3291 11/22/09 9:05 PM Veteran Member	The problem with Harden is he's always been injury-prone, whereas Sheets hasn't. Harden has yet to log 200 innings in his career. Sheets threw three straight years of 34 starts and 200+ innings from 02-04 and 198 IP in 08. Sheets has dealt with a number of nagging injuries (ear infection in 05, torn tendon in his finger in 07, and a hamstring issue in 07). Of Sheets, Harden, and Bedard; Sheets is the one most likely to give you 160-180 quality innings.
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The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread