Catch-all Offseason Rankings - Red Sox in SoxProspects Discussion Forum

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Catch-all Offseason Rankings - Red Sox

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mwashuc06		#21	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 16 11/12/09 7:55 PM	Gibson is going to be the next Brian Roberts. He has 15-20 HR potential, some guys take a while to develope it. Who would have though Pedoria would hit more than 10 in a season.
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David Laurila		#22	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 959 11/12/09 8:02 PM Veteran Member	As we all know, Bowden's 4-6 record is very deceptive due to lack of run support. It is also quite clear that the majority of us [and that certainly includes KG] are aware that W/L record is relatively meaningless. That said, what if Bowden's record in his 24 Pawtucket starts, with all other numbers being the same, would have been 16-4? Does he rate higher on this list, and on most everyone else's? My guess is that he does, possibly by as many as three slots.
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AMarshal2		#23	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9018 11/12/09 8:07 PM	amfox1 wrote: I think this list goes to show that KG loves the shiny new toys. I think it's accurate to say that KG is a tools heavy prospect evaluator. aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep. tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
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TheGoldenGreek33		#24	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3278 11/12/09 8:07 PM Veteran Member	With all due respect, Mr. Laurila, are you suggesting it's Bowden's lack of wins and not his average secondary pitches/lack of fastball command that's keeping him from being ranked higher?
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AMarshal2		#25	[url]	[-]
Posts: 9019 11/12/09 8:09 PM	David Laurila wrote: As we all know, Bowden's 4-6 record is very deceptive due to lack of run support. It is also quite clear that the majority of us [and that certainly includes KG] are aware that W/L record is relatively meaningless. That said, what if Bowden's record in his 24 Pawtucket starts, with all other numbers being the same, would have been 16-4? Does he rate higher on this list, and on most everyone else's? My guess is that he does, possibly by as many as three slots. Does anybody even look at W/L to begin with? Maybe some do, but I think my brain trained my eyes long ago to not even look at those columns. aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep. tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.
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Nexus		#26	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 300 11/12/09 8:20 PM	templeUsox wrote: Twitter: Kevin_Goldstein I do like how one off-hand comment has brought out the GSDF (Grady Sizemore Defense Force) Perfect World Projection: Westmoreland could be the kind of player people thought Grady Sizemore would become. Well, dang. I didn't realize Sizemore's age 22-27 seasons were less than satisfactory based on expectations. I guess we're talking Griffey-90's Mariners-perennial-10+ WAR-uber-superstar-potential here if he stays in CF.
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FenwayTheHardWay		#27	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1629 11/12/09 8:30 PM Veteran Member	amfox1 wrote: I would have placed Lars 7th, ahead of Tazawa and Bowden. He's got much bigger upside than both of them. That's true, but on the other hand, Tazawa and Bowden are already halfway graduated to the majors. They're on the depth chart right now. It wouldn't be any kind of shock for either one of the to pitch a considerable number of innings for the MLB club next year, and they're both quite likely to have some kind of major league career. That makes up for a lot of the upside that they lack. With Lars, you don't have that level of confidence that he'll be a major leaguer. He could improve his hitting considerably and still wind up as Jeff Bailey. Also, regarding the "well, he had a bad back" thing, shouldn't a 21 year old NOT have a bad back? Don't back problems tend to be chronic things? Isn't that a concern in and of itself? "Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez
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buffs44444		#28	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1303 11/12/09 8:50 PM	Nexus wrote: Well, dang. I didn't realize Sizemore's age 22-27 seasons were less than satisfactory based on expectations. I guess we're talking Griffey-90's Mariners-perennial-10+ WAR-uber-superstar-potential here if he stays in CF. That's pretty much how he termed Westy in last year's review: Perfect World Projection: He'll be a five-tool superstar. Safe to say that the reviews KG has received on Westy have been off the charts. Hopefully Ryan keeps progressing along this path. Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.
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David Laurila		#29	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 960 11/12/09 9:10 PM Veteran Member	TheGoldenGreek33 wrote: With all due respect, Mr. Laurila, are you suggesting it's Bowden's lack of wins and not his average secondary pitches/lack of fastball command that's keeping him from being ranked higher? I probably shouldn't have offered my premise/suggestion relative to KG's list, as he'd be far less prone to such influences than others, but I do think it has some merit. As I said, W/L records are mostly meaningless, however, for better or for worse, I believe they do have some influence on rankings. Bowden was obviously ranked much higher last year, and my premise is that you're less likely to move a player down that many slots if he goes 16-4. I'm not saying that you shouldn't, I'm saying that you're less likely. On a related note, suppose Kalish had a notably better BABIP this season and his Portland BA was .320. Given that the gap between he and Reddick was likely not very big, does Kalish maybe grab the 3 slot and Reddick 4? With KG doing the rankings, perhaps not, but it makes the scenario more likely, does it not? Essentially, my theory is that stats like BA and W/L -- stats that we accept to be far less important than the casual fan believes them to be -- do influence perception, and perception influences rankings. Again, I'm not saying they should, but to some degree I believe they do.
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chavopepe2		#30	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1144 11/12/09 9:33 PM Senior Forum Moderator	I don't know DL. BA maybe, but I don't think most people even look at W/L record for minor leaguers. I personally had no idea what Bowden's W/L record was before this conversation.
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left coast bosox fan		#31	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3435 11/13/09 6:47 AM Veteran Member	Ranking a player with less than a year's short season experience as the number 1 prospect is mind boggling. Give KG credit for big ones. "According to Elias, Wang's ERA of 21.60 as a starter is the worst ERA for the first 5 starts in the history of baseball." ... YES Network 6/11/2009
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CMF16		#32	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 410 11/13/09 8:03 AM	Hairps wrote: Five-Star Prospects 1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF 2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS Four-Star Prospects 3. Josh Reddick, OF 4. Ryan Kalish, OF Three-Star Prospects 5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B 6. Jose Iglesias, SS 7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP 8. Michael Bowden, RHP 9. Lars Anderson, 1B 10. Reymond Fuentes, CF 11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS Four More: 12. David Renfroe, RHP/SS 13. Alex Wilson, RHP 14. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP 15. Che-Hsuan Lin, LF http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762 Do the four more (#12-15) also classify as three star prospects or are they just an honorable mention?
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wskeleton76		#33	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 584 11/13/09 9:29 AM Veteran Member	From the BP chat: Q : Any positive feedback on young Almanzar? KG : Scouts still see the tools, but his approach is a mess and he needs to refine his swing. Q : So he didn't make the cut -- I can't imagine he missed by much -- but what would be Younginer's "perfect world projection" ? KG : He didn't miss by much. His ceiling is higher than many on the list, but he's VERY far away. Q : Some scouts believe Kalish can stay in CF because he makes very good reads on fly balls. Would you agree? KG : I would. Q : Great stuff as usual Kev. A theoretical for you though: do you think you'd have ranked Kelly behind Westmoreland if he'd pitched all year and continued getting the results he got in the first half of the year? Honest theoretical, like the poster above. KG : No, I don't. Even I was surprised at the kind of things scouts were saying about him based on what I saw in Lowell. Q : The system seems a little weaker than it has the in the past. Is there enough here to get a big trade done? KG : Absolutely. It is a little weaker, but there is a LOT of depth. They're 1-11 might not be crazy elite, but their 21-30 would rank very high, so there are a lot of options. Q : Kevin, what did you hear that kept Exposito off this list? KG : I'm very surprised that Expo didn't come up earlier. Honestly, it's hard to find scouts very high on him, despite some numbers that have been pretty darn good. Bad approach, so-so defense. I certainly don't hate him, and would put him in the 16-20 range, but he just didn't get enough support to go higher. Q : I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on Yamaico Navarro. I can understand why he didn't make this list with an erratic performance, but I've just a feeling that this guy's breaking out next year. KG : Yeah, he's one of those guys who would be in the 16-20 running. That AA showing left a lot of questions as to his ability to hit at the upper levels. Q : Felix Doubront? KG : Just kind of a generic solid lefty for me. Not a bad prospect, but not special.
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wskeleton76		#34	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 585 11/13/09 9:32 AM Veteran Member	Scouts really love Westy and KG believes in them.
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OCD SS		#35	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 662 11/13/09 9:40 AM Veteran Member	CMF16 wrote: Do the four more (#12-15) also classify as three star prospects or are they just an honorable mention? I actually took the "4 more" just as interesting players that he wanted to comment on, rather than as further rankings. Edit: although maybe after reading the chat excerpt I'm wrong about that... *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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CMF16		#36	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 411 11/13/09 10:54 AM	I noticed that Lin is listed as a LF. That has to be a typo, right?
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Cem21		#37	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2472 11/13/09 12:42 PM Chris Mellen Director of Scouting SoxProspects.com	I would have placed Anderson 5th or 6th on the list. Probably 5th. To be honest, he had a bad season and didn't look very good in the process. There were some back issues in May, but besides spending some time at DH when the intial news was reported he didn't miss much time or spend a day on the DL because of it. Given how the organization treats things and "errs on the side of caution" to quote Francona, if things were really bad with the back you'd think they would have given him some time off if it was effecting things greatly. That's always been curious to me. The 7 or so times I saw Anderson over the course of the season he looked off. Caught inbetween pitches, missing hittable pitches, rolling over balls, etc. He didn't really square much up in the ABs I saw. But, given all of that I don't think he's slipped behind Bowden and Tazawa. I can see arguments for Iglesias and Rizzo, but I'd still put him ahead of at least Iglesias and a lot of what has been mentioned as developmental needs for Rizzo was the same things mentioned surrounding Anderson at the same point in development. I know KG does a lot of legwork on this with scouts, officials and first hands so I'm not knocking his list. That's really just my take on things from what I have seen.
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Guidas		#38	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 73 11/13/09 1:28 PM	Not in any way denigrating a #2 or #3 starter, but if that really is the top end of Kelly's projection then I more for trading him in a package for a legit current 1-2 starter who may be available (i.e. Roy Halladay (if he can be signed to an extension as part of the deal), Josh Johnson, etc (although I still think King Felix is staying in Seattle for now) than I was this summer when the hype machine had him as a #1. And if Westmoreland really is all that than he becomes the untouchable unless you're getting Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto or Ryan Braun coming back.
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amfox1		#39	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6329 11/13/09 2:07 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Cem21 wrote: I would have placed Anderson 5th or 6th on the list. Probably 5th. To be honest, he had a bad season and didn't look very good in the process. There were some back issues in May, but besides spending some time at DH when the intial news was reported he didn't miss much time or spend a day on the DL because of it. Given how the organization treats things and "errs on the side of caution" to quote Francona, if things were really bad with the back you'd think they would have given him some time off if it was effecting things greatly. That's always been curious to me. The 7 or so times I saw Anderson over the course of the season he looked off. Caught inbetween pitches, missing hittable pitches, rolling over balls, etc. He didn't really square much up in the ABs I saw. But, given all of that I don't think he's slipped behind Bowden and Tazawa. I can see arguments for Iglesias and Rizzo, but I'd still put him ahead of at least Iglesias and a lot of what has been mentioned as developmental needs for Rizzo was the same things mentioned surrounding Anderson at the same point in development. I know KG does a lot of legwork on this with scouts, officials and first hands so I'm not knocking his list. That's really just my take on things from what I have seen. Me, too, on the injury front. I would have Anderson behind Rizzo for two main reasons - (1) age-relative-to-level and (2) defense. Rizzo could be a Teixeira-like player (top-tier two-way player). I see Anderson as more of a Delgado (bearable defense, good offense, high OBP). You could move Iglesias up or down a spot, but my argument for Iglesias would be that he is a guaranteed 10-12 year major leaguer based on defense alone. If he learns to hit even adequately and steal bases, people could eventually mention him with Omar Vizquel/Ozzie Smith. (Obviously, aspirational but he'll play for years even if he never hits - see Wilson, Jack and Clayton, Royce) Imagine if he were on this past year's team.
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amfox1		#40	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6330 11/13/09 2:14 PM Senior Forum Moderator	Guidas wrote: Not in any way denigrating a #2 or #3 starter, but if that really is the top end of Kelly's projection then I more for trading him in a package for a legit current 1-2 starter who may be available (i.e. Roy Halladay (if he can be signed to an extension as part of the deal), Josh Johnson, etc (although I still think King Felix is staying in Seattle for now) than I was this summer when the hype machine had him as a #1. And if Westmoreland really is all that than he becomes the untouchable unless you're getting Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto or Ryan Braun coming back. To me, Kelly is the ultimate "sell high" candidate in a trade for a legit 1-2 starter. The question to me is - can you get Halladay/Gonzalez/etc. with Kelly, Reddick and a B-level arm, because I'm not trading Buchholz.
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Catch-all Offseason Rankings - Red Sox