The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread

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TheGoldenGreek33

#521

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11/03/09 8:46 PM

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Even if UZR does not know how to weigh Fenway, he was a below-average left fielder at PNC. I don't think he's a DH, yet. But, halfway through his next contract he will.

Nexus

#522

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11/03/09 8:58 PM

Beckett talks extension

"At the end of the year hopefully we'll sit down and maybe have a talk with (Red Sox general manager) Theo (Epstein), me and my agent (Michael Moye) and see what they're thinking about," he had said. "I want to see where they're going, if I'm even in their plans. If I'm not it was an awesome run. I really haven't sat down and thought about it too much, but at the end of the year we will sit down and at least have a talk. Even if nothing comes of it, just to say, 'Are we in the plans? Are we looking to get younger?' It's really up to them. I would like to stay here. I love playing in Boston. I can't imagine another organization that would go so far out of the way to make my job as easy as possible. They realize our jobs are very demanding and very hard, and they do everything they can."

buffs44444

#523

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11/03/09 9:04 PM

TheGoldenGreek33 wrote:
Even if UZR does not know how to weigh Fenway, he was a below-average left fielder at PNC. I don't think he's a DH, yet. But, halfway through his next contract he will.

Even in the event he does continue to decline towards that level, the DH spot appears to be headed towards an opening in 2011. Given that Bay has range issues but has enough of an arm (read: not great, but usable) to play a decent left at Fenway, he should still be able to play a passable left field for home games for the bulk of that contract. I would agree that he's better suited to DH in road games if his defense declines over the course of the contract, but Fenway should hide some of his shortcomings for at least half his games as a Red Sox LF.

If it does turn out that there is a huge difference in the contract demands of Holliday and Bay (and I'm not sold on that yet) I have no problems with Bay returning if another premier bat (see Gonzalez, Adrian) is also added to the mix. I'd hate to see his re-signing as the major move of the offseason though. Bay alone would simply represent maintaining the current offensive levels, and the offense was lacking in 2009.

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

SoxSail

#524

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11/03/09 9:43 PM

buffs44444 wrote:
I'd hate to see his re-signing as the major move of the offseason though. Bay alone would simply represent maintaining the current offensive levels, and the offense was lacking in 2009.

The Sox ranked third in Runs Scored, and were not far behind the leaders:


*-NY Yankees									915
x-LA Angels									883
y-Boston									872
x-Philadelphia									820
x-Minnesota									817
y-Colorado									804
Tampa Bay									803
Toronto									798
Milwaukee									785
Texas									784
*-LA Dodgers									780
Cleveland									773
Florida									772
Oakland									759
Detroit									743
Baltimore									741
Atlanta									735
x-St. Louis									730
Chicago Sox									724
Arizona									720
Washington									710
Chicago Cubs									707
Kansas City									686
Cincinnati									673
NY Mets									671
San Francisco									657
Houston									643
Seattle									640
San Diego									638
Pittsburgh									636

We will also hopefully see improvement (perhaps vast) from the DH and C spots, while there are few spots that I personally expect regression. If we don't see improvement at DH, or if Drew, Youk or Pedroia regress significantly then we will have a problem. With Buchholz for a full season, Dice-K healthy, and hopefully improved D at 3B and SS, our run prevention looks to be better as well. This of course leaves out LF, and also assumes few injuries, and that there is no issue with a new catcher. Rotation depth is currently minimal, but improvement from Bowden or Tazawa, or the hiring of a FA could help that. Per usual, the 'pen is a work in progress.

AMarshal2

#525

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11/03/09 10:08 PM

Aaron
Senior Moderator
SoxProspects Forum

TheGoldenGreek33 wrote:
Even if UZR does not know how to weigh Fenway, he was a below-average left fielder at PNC. I don't think he's a DH, yet. But, halfway through his next contract he will.

I agree he's below average, which is what I said. Don't forget that he was hurt though, in 2007. Prior to 2007 his UZR/150 scores in Pittsburgh were 3, -4.4, -7.2, and -1.6. He was a tick below average, not exactly bad.

aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field.
joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.

TheGoldenGreek33

#526

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11/03/09 10:08 PM

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W/r/t Beckett, it obviously sounded from Theo like they wanted to bring him back beyond 2010.

What would an extension begin at?

He'll be 31 after next season. His 07-09 three year average in Boston: 16-8/year, 3.71 ERA/year, 196 IP/year, 188 K/43 BB/year, 1.17 WHIP/year, 20 HRA/year.

You can safely assume he'll be on the downturn of his career. He's a power pitcher, and will need to stay in very good shape to retain his stuff as he ages. He's probably no longer an 'ace' by definition (Lester is), but he's still a very good pitcher. I would think something in the area of 3 years/$42MM with an option would get it done.

Thoughts?

editADD: I think it'd be wise for Beckett to wait and see what Lackey gets on the market and use that as a benchmark for what he'll command. They're very comparable in terms of production.

Last Edited By: TheGoldenGreek33 11/03/09 10:12 PM. Edited 1 time.

Cem21

#527

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11/03/09 10:17 PM

Chris Mellen
Director of Scouting
SoxProspects.com

If the Sox are going to trade off assets this off-season, I'd much rather see it go towards an arm (Hernandez) than towards a bat. (Gonzalez) As painful as it was getting shutdown offensively in Games 1 and 2, it wasn't like Lester/Beckett matched Lackey/Weaver. In fact, they both got outpitched in their outings and made location mistakes that they paid dearly for. 0-2 double off Beckett, fat fastball up to Hunter, etc. Even in the Buchholz start, if he could have gotten you through the 6th with a 5-2 lead instead of losing focus and forcing Bard into the 6th inning, you're looking at a different course for the 'pen and who knows, maybe Bard pitches the 7th and 8th.

Much was made of losing out on Tex last season because of how close it was perceived the Sox got, but not much was made of their pursuit or lack thereof for Sabathia while filling rotation slots/depth with veteran retreads like Penny and Smoltz. To me. if you are going to move high level prospects this off-season, get another front line starter. Throw money at Jason Bay or Matt Holliday and acquire a proven starter to lengthen the rotation.

Guidas

#528

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11/03/09 10:26 PM

TheGoldenGreek33 wrote: I would think something in the area of 3 years/$42MM with an option would get it done.

I would find that fair (or whatever Lackey gets per year if it's more - only because Beckett should be able to get that at least on the open market), but I am guessing someone on the open market gives him that 4th year, especially in the NL. One way the Sox might make it work is to give him a signing bonus so that 2010 equals the same average annual salary (i.e $14 mil) as each of three extension years. Not sure that gets it done, either but it would be a great good faith step.

jspearlj1

#529

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11/03/09 10:36 PM

3/42... really?

AJ Burnett signed a deal after his age 30 season for 5/82 and you think Beckett will sign on the dotted line for what is less than half that? Really?

Lackey will likely get a 5/90 type deal and I can see Beckett commanding that as well.

TheGoldenGreek33

#530

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11/03/09 10:39 PM

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Using Burnett as a benchmark for fair market value is not only extremely unfair, it's borderline psychotic.

And we'll just agree to disagree on what Lackey will command. Nobody will be giving him that much. I'll let you change my avatar if he gets anything close to that.

jspearlj1

#531

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11/03/09 10:47 PM

So you also think Beckett is worth less than Derek lowe?

Really I could go on.

It's borderline psychotic to think that Beckett will sign a 3 year deal... scratch that... it's completely over the border... past Mexico, in the Chilean Andes psychotic to think Beckett will sign a 3 year deal.

PrahaSMC

#532

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11/03/09 11:07 PM

jspearlj1 wrote:

3/42... really?

AJ Burnett signed a deal after his age 30 season for 5/82 and you think Beckett will sign on the dotted line for what is less than half that? Really?

Lackey will likely get a 5/90 type deal and I can see Beckett commanding that as well.

What he said.

If Beckett gets paid a year early, he will certainly take a discount, but I can't imagine it would be more than 20-25% of what he and his representatives perceive to be market value (Lackey makes a convenient comparison). My guess is that he wouldn't settle for anything less than 5/75... and 3/42 isn't even within the realm of possibility.

"This Kenny Mauer should go home to his wife... because nobody here loves him." - Tommy Heinsohn

qutennis5

#533

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11/03/09 11:15 PM

jspearlj1 wrote:
So you also think Beckett is worth less than Derek lowe?

Really I could go on.

It's borderline psychotic to think that Beckett will sign a 3 year deal... scratch that... it's completely over the border... past Mexico, in the Chilean Andes psychotic to think Beckett will sign a 3 year deal.

Agree. Heavy drugs have to be involved to think Beckett would sign such a team-friendly deal. Burnett was 31 when he signed his 5yr deal and started the first year of his new contract at age 32. Beckett, who's the superior pitcher, will be a year younger when he reaches free agency next season. Great point on Derek Lowe. Within the past couple of years we've seen:

Ted Lilly signed for 4/40
Jeff Suppan signed for 4/42
Big Z signed for 5/91
Schmidt signed for 3/47
Kuroda signed for 3/35
Carlos Silva signed for 4/48

etc etc etc

TheGoldenGreek33

#534

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11/03/09 11:27 PM

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Then I'd let him walk. 4/60 tops or bust. Using Burnett as an example is hogwash. They vastly overpaid by a pretty significant amount. I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of overpaying for pitchers in their declining years. If he is, indeed, looking for a 5/90, let him walk, and take the picks.

jspearlj1

#535

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11/03/09 11:36 PM

Then he'll walk, that's an understandable viewpoint to have. I agree that overpaying for a guy beginning his 30's who has a whole bunch of nagging injuries every year for more than 3 years is scary. When I look at Beckett I just don't see the commitment to fitness that I think is necessary for him to be at the apex of his abilities for most of the season. As he ages it'll likely get worse with reduced velocity as well as just not having his best stuff while overcoming injury.

AMarshal2

#536

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11/03/09 11:43 PM

Aaron
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The funny thing is that, by ERA+, Burnett is clearly the worst pitcher of the 4 being discussed (Lackey, Lowe). I did a 50/30/20 weighting of the last 3 years for each pitcher. Lowe and Burnett are calculated after 2008. Beckett and Lackey after 2009.

Lowe: 142
Beckett: 125
Lackey: 125.4
Burnett: 111.2

Burnett also threw the least innings but Lowe was a lot older. As noted above, pitchers who sign extensions sign them at a discount because they could always get hurt in the coming year. I could see 4/72 as the lowest offer he would take and one the Sox might agree to. I agree, on the open market, he gets near Burnett money. The Yankees may have over-paid, but Beckett is better. Lackey will be a good benchmark.

aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field.
joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong.

Last Edited By: AMarshal2 11/03/09 11:46 PM. Edited 1 time.

ArodSucksAtLife

#537

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Posts: 3760

11/04/09 12:59 AM

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TheGoldenGreek33 wrote:
Then I'd let him walk. 4/60 tops or bust. Using Burnett as an example is hogwash. They vastly overpaid by a pretty significant amount. I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of overpaying for pitchers in their declining years. If he is, indeed, looking for a 5/90, let him walk, and take the picks.

If you've got a belief that Josh Beckett's performance is going to plummet over the next few years then make your case. Guys with Beckett's skills, and performance don't sign for cheap. 4/60 for T.O.T.R. starter is cheap.

I am in love with Clayton Kershaw. I want him in me. - Curll84

adiospaydro2005

#538

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Posts: 1520

11/04/09 9:15 AM

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SoxSail wrote:

buffs44444 wrote:
I'd hate to see his re-signing as the major move of the offseason though. Bay alone would simply represent maintaining the current offensive levels, and the offense was lacking in 2009.

The Sox ranked third in Runs Scored, and were not far behind the leaders:

*-NY Yankees

915

x-LA Angels

883

y-Boston

872

x-Philadelphia

820

x-Minnesota

817

y-Colorado

804

Tampa Bay

803

Toronto

798

Milwaukee

785

Texas

784

*-LA Dodgers

780

Cleveland

773

Florida

772

Oakland

759

Detroit

743

Baltimore

741

Atlanta

735

x-St. Louis

730

Chicago Sox

724

Arizona

720

Washington

710

Chicago Cubs

707

Kansas City

686

Cincinnati

673

NY Mets

671

San Francisco

657

Houston

643

Seattle

640

San Diego

638

Pittsburgh

636

We will also hopefully see improvement (perhaps vast) from the DH and C spots, while there are few spots that I personally expect regression. If we don't see improvement at DH, or if Drew, Youk or Pedroia regress significantly then we will have a problem. With Buchholz for a full season, Dice-K healthy, and hopefully improved D at 3B and SS, our run prevention looks to be better as well. This of course leaves out LF, and also assumes few injuries, and that there is no issue with a new catcher. Rotation depth is currently minimal, but improvement from Bowden or Tazawa, or the hiring of a FA could help that. Per usual, the 'pen is a work in progress.

Those numbers might look good on the surface, but what's the split home vs. away? The Red Sox also pounded teams like the Orioles which helped to pad their statistics. They need to sign Bay or Holliday and then go out and get another bat as I am not counting on guys like Ortiz who was quoted the other day that the only thing that he plans to change this offseason is picking up a bat earlier. Perhaps if he also agrees to drop his fork earlier each day he might have something.

Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220

raftsox

#539

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Posts: 1394

11/04/09 10:05 AM

adiospaydro2005 wrote:
Those numbers might look good on the surface, but what's the split home vs. away? The Red Sox also pounded teams like the Orioles which helped to pad their statistics. They need to sign Bay or Holliday and then go out and get another bat as I am not counting on guys like Ortiz who was quoted the other day that the only thing that he plans to change this offseason is picking up a bat earlier. Perhaps if he also agrees to drop his fork earlier each day he might have something.

I seem to remember hearing that Ortiz would be training at API with KY and Pedroia this offseason.

481 runs scored at Fenway = 5.94 rpg at home. 4.83 rpg on the road.

I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2

adiospaydro2005

#540

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Posts: 1522

11/04/09 11:07 AM

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Pedrioia was on WEEI this past Saturday and Bradford referenced that he is not going to API this offseason as they had moved and Pedrioia didn't correct him, so I assume that is correct. I would be glad to hear if Ortiz is going to API as he needs to drop 30 to 40 pounds this offseason. Given that the Red Sox hold a option on him in 2011, he better produce in 2010 or he will be looking for a new job after the 2010 season.

Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220

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