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 raftsox |
#441 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1385 10/28/09 2:12 PM |
SoxSail wrote:I think he'll be David Ortiz in Minnesota: singles and lower # of HRs than you'd expect. And with that I agree with you SS, I'm done talking about him in this forum.
I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head.
... You should post less. - AMarshal2
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Arthur Spooner |
#442 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 8 10/28/09 6:19 PM |
jdb wrote: Neither do I, its not like when pitchers change leagues and have to deal with the DH, there's really no major reason for hitters to struggle. How many hitters go from the NL to AL and face a significant regression? Why is it that Holliday cant make the switch, while guys like Abreu, Bay, Cabrera, Quentin, Drew, and Hamilton can? The only decent reason I've heard is the FB thing, but the numbers don't really back that up. |
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glassox |
#443 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 10 10/28/09 7:22 PM |
I've been trying to figure out what i want the Red Sox to do, before i come up with my forcast, i have a question. Is next years draft class one of
those ultra talented classes or good, bad, ugly. We have several options that will change the look of the entire Red Sox system, and i would like to know your
opion about the 2010 draft class depth. Thanks
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Nexus |
#444 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 254 10/28/09 7:50 PM |
Arthur Spooner wrote: You mean the ones that come from Coors? Holliday's career line at Coors: .357/.422/.643/1.066 Everywhere else: .290/.357/.474/.831 Again, Holliday is a nice player, but not a great player... and certainly not one worth north of $100 million dollars over the next 5 or 6 years. |
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ArodSucksAtLife |
#445 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3729 10/28/09 8:36 PM Veteran Member |
Nexus wrote: Blah blah blah blah. Did Coors field help his numbers? Yes. However, road numbers are always lower than home numbers and by always I mean I don't care about whatever exception you find. In two separate parks his '09 "Home" numbers: .326/.408/.574/.982 Say it is just an .850+ OPS and great defense. Pay the man what it takes, slot his 5.0+ WARP into LF and move on to bringing a 23 year old Venezualan to Boston. One more time for good measure every argument/bitchfest about missing out on Teixeira, fast forward a year insert Matt Holliday name and repeat. I am in love with Clayton Kershaw. I want him in me. - Curll84 |
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JimRiceRocks |
#446 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1172 10/28/09 9:16 PM Veteran Member |
road numbers are always lower than home numbers Not that it matters anymore . . . But Jim Ed says says thank you very much!
"You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan
"No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan |
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FenwayTheHardWay |
#447 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1603 10/28/09 9:20 PM Veteran Member |
Man, if only we played in a hitter's park that was particularly kind to righties, Holliday would be a natural fit. If only...
"Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the
cheese."- Buck Martinez
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Nexus |
#448 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 255 10/28/09 9:40 PM |
ArodSucksAtLife wrote:A career 235 OPS point drop away from Coors is a screaming red flag and by career I mean I don't care what his "home" numbers were this year when he had a .417 BABIP and batted against a pile of shit in the NLC. |
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gregblossersbelly |
Pile of ?? | #449 | ||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 647 10/28/09 9:53 PM Veteran Member |
Shouldn't you say against the NL West in 3 tough stadiums to hit in; Dodger Stadium, Petco and Pac-Bell.Colorado isn't in the NL Central. |
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Yirmiyahu |
#450 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 570 10/28/09 9:56 PM |
All this conversation about home/road splits reminds me of Adrian Gonzalez. No young hitter, with the exception of Pujols, has a higher road OPS (.935). At
least, as far as I can find. God, the numbers he would put up in Fenway.
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Bosoxwest |
#451 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 215 10/28/09 9:57 PM |
The Holliday Coors-road splits are a pretty heavily impacted by his 04/05 numbers where the differential was insane. It's a valid point of attack but I
think he showed enough in a tough hitters environment at Oakland to soothe the league transition worries, for the most part. What I like about him is that he
(unlike Bay to the tune of +150 - +200 points of OPS) is not a terrible 2-strike hitter. On a team that stresses patience like the Sox, that is important IMO.
You look at the two guys they moved to lock up this year in Youks and Pedey, they are both tremendous 2-strike hitters.
That said, it's a question of where the offers come in relative to his value against traditional Sox measurements (e.g. $ per WARP3 weighted or whatnot) and how far they are willing to stretch. Given his now well-publicized lovefest for the Yankee "mystique" (they are mysterious in the way that every whore who will ABSOLUTELY screw you if you give them money is) and the fact that Minaya is involved, I would expect that he will be too expensive for the Sox after the gamesmanship starts being played. I have to say, in the sort of vague generalized way that is always fun, that I'd like to see the Sox take some risk and try to make some win-win trades for young guys in the upper minors, relying on their talent evaluation. Everyone can agree that maybe a Bowden is not enough (even in part) to get you a Felix, but is he enough to get you a Daryl Jones? I use that as an off-the-cuff example obviously, but I think GMs should have more leeway in making need-based deals when the players are not well-known enough to suffer fanbase backlash insanity and this is an area where depth can accomplish some things that the lack of tradeable blue-chippers can (or will) not.
Just wanted to say that Singer has disallowed me from posting new topics ever since my Freddy Guzman thread. He seemed very upset about my opinions and was
almost hostile in his responses. He must have been upset about something else, I don't know, it was strange. Anyway, apparently he has deemed me unworthy
of starting new discussions. Do I mind? I do mind, the Dude minds. This will not stand, ya know, this aggression will not stand, man.
-- Youngcheese, making my day |
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ArodSucksAtLife |
#452 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3731 10/28/09 9:58 PM Veteran Member |
Nexus wrote: I don't care what his Coors numbers were. His BABIP this year was below his career average and he had a .909 OPS with great defense. You don't think he is Pujols, I get it. He will be a RH J.D. Drew(slightly better) and I'd pay him 19-20mm and be happy about it. I am in love with Clayton Kershaw. I want him in me. - Curll84 |
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Nexus |
#453 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 256 10/28/09 10:19 PM |
ArodSucksAtLife wrote:Clearly, which is why we're wasting our time. But I am fine with a slightly better JD Drew. I just don't like him at a Vernon Wells price. |
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ArodSucksAtLife |
#454 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3732 10/28/09 10:26 PM Veteran Member |
Nexus wrote: I don't like Vernon Wells period. 98.5 million for 5 years of Matt Holliday? Done. I am in love with Clayton Kershaw. I want him in me. - Curll84 |
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MVPedroia15 |
#455 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 15 10/28/09 11:21 PM |
Nexus wrote:
Again, Holliday is a nice player, but not a great player... and certainly not one worth north of $100 million dollars over the next 5 or 6 years. I agree. Holliday may be better than Bay, but he is not THE answer to our offensive woes. The best way to turn it around (besided a switch hitting first baseman currently playing elsewhere) is a corner infielder with some serious pop. Corner infielder b/c thats the best place we can add power right now. I think that much we all know. Unfortunately, our best options are very unlikely to be traded. Holliday and Bay are almost interchangeable in my opinion. I'd give Bay 4 years 16MM per and Holliday 5-6 years 16-18MM per. But signing either of them will not make us the WS favorite in '09. Signing one of the two then getting a Gonzalez or a Fielder, or a Hernandez would put us back in the hunt though. |
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ArodSucksAtLife |
#456 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3736 10/28/09 11:50 PM Veteran Member |
Damn boxes.MVPedroia15 wrote:.548, .474. Add power and improve the team with a logical idea. I am in love with Clayton Kershaw. I want him in me. - Curll84 |
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SoxSail |
#457 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 257 10/29/09 1:13 AM |
MVPedroia15 wrote:I don't think everyone agrees that adding a couple of home runs above Lowell's bat would be better than improving upon what we have in Left Field right now which is Josh freiking Reddick, who I love, but is just not ready. You need a new guy in LF, you don't at third, plain and simple. Sure, if you have an ideal situation at first or third, then yes, take it, but neither Fielder nor Gonzalez are going to come without enormous prospect costs, and neither is going to help our defense tremendously (if only because Youk is not a great 3B.) Oh and uh... since when are teams who make the playoffs not in the "hunt?" |
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BoSox81 |
#458 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 77 10/29/09 1:36 AM |
My 2 cents:
This offseason's only real big name free agents are Holliday and Bay. Plus the team is still stuck with Tek, Ortiz, Lowell. The real offseason the Sox should be looking forward to and planning for is 2011 when two things will happen: 1. Big name free agents potentially available will be Lee, Beckett, Halladay, Webb, Mauer, V-Mart, Crawford, Dunn, Werth, among others. 2. The Sox will have significant payfoll coming off If this planning means having to pass on Bay and Holliday I'd be more than happy to endure one year of regression. |
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jspearlj1 |
#459 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 4920 10/29/09 8:39 AM |
Why are people so willing to step back a year when this team's core is still fairly young? They won 95 games when a bunch of their starting depth went to
the crapper! This is still a high quality team. You sign Holliday and increase your talent level a little. There will be a full year of Buck versus
Smoltz/Penny stinking up the joint and I can't imagine Dice being much worse. All the sox really need to do to be one of the top teams for next year is
sign either Holliday/Bay, figure out a ss caddy for Lowrie and add another starting depth guy (a 2nd half pitcher for the inevitable Wake injury, but someone
who we don't need to pan out to be successful because there is still Bowden and Tazawa). Those are all eminently doable things that will retain the talent
level to top 3 in the game (certainly worth of winning a title) as well as a plan that doesn't forfeit the future and should actually make it stronger
(Holliday would get us more athletic and a year younger than Bay as well as the added draft pick being a boost for the future).
That isn't complicated, but yet people are still seeming to hope for a step back like it will solve all of our woes like it did for the yanks because all people seem to see are the possible FA out there for next year when a good chunk of those guys will not be available to us. Mauer is a great bet to resign, I have a feeling that Lee just sealed his next deal with Philly, Webb is a big question mark right now and into the future, and Halladay is likely to get massively overpaid. It's a horrible idea to bank on players on other teams becoming free agents, especially when none of them are Boras clients. Just because the Yankees did it with players they absolutely knew would be FA the following year doesn't mean the sox best approach going forward is the same. The Yanks knew that Aj and Tex would be FA (there was pretty much no doubt) they also had a very strong feeling that CC would be a free agent as well. Out of all of the 2010 FA, the only elite guy you know will be a FA is Halladay. That's not a good plan, you shoot 2010 off and don't get a whole lot better for 2011 and on. |
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jdb |
#460 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 228 10/29/09 8:40 AM |
I would love to get a corner I/F to replace Lowell but I think it has to be a 3B. I would love to add a player like Gonzo but I dont want Youk playing 3B the
rest of his contract. He is a GG 1B and should stay there. I think 3B is very important bc after Figgens and Beltre the FA market for them this season and next
is pretty bare. Theo would have to get creative to upgrade it without signing one of the two FA this season.
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