The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread

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dd7136

#401

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10/27/09 2:03 PM

MVPedroia15 wrote:
If thats honestly what the Bay camp thinks, then I think the way to go is stopgap for a year until Reddick is ready.
I know we're a prospect board, but can we stop with planning to replace a middle of the lineup bat with a AA kid who barely makes the BA league's top 20 list? He may well end up a nice MLB outfielder, and perhaps hit 20 homers some day. But so far he's a kid overmatched in AAA and the MLB. Planning him as the solution and therefore foregoing any replacement with known quantities is not the way to go. The only place I think such a thought process might fit is at SS, where you're dealing with a #9 hitter, there's a built in existing stop-gap, and projecting Iglesias to replace the existing option isn't too difficult.

Holliday will be the Sox's 2010-2015 left fielder.

But I think the thing to remember here is that you can't necessarily fill your holes through FA every single year or in any particular year. Theo (and the Sox FO for that matter) are smart people. I think they understand that going after the best bat in any particular offseason, isn't the same as going after the offensive player they may need taking into account the money/years that FA may want. In other words, I'm guessing they don't view Holliday as the offensive player that will be worth the money/years someone else decides to throw at him, and Bay probably also falls into that category.

Now, that doesn't mean you have to throw in a prospect like Reddick who may or may not be ready... There are other alternatives to fill spots like that until your prospects or the prime FA bat becomes avialable. For instance they could trade for a bat/LF told hold down the position for a year or two or sign a guy like Abreu to a two year deal which I'm guessing they won't do if it costs them a 1st rounder... In any event watch for a short term patch for next year in LF.

buffs44444

#402

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10/27/09 2:52 PM

dd7136 wrote:
... In any event watch for a short term patch for next year in LF.

Because you see the FO looking towards the 2011 when.......Adam Dunn will be available? I'm trying to understand the rationale of those who advocate passing on Holliday because he's going to want too much (they all want "too much") and instead placing a band-aid in the middle of the order.

Don't get me wrong, this would definitely be a worthwhile strategy if a better bat were on the horizon. The problem that I see with that strategy is that there is no Jay Bruce coming through the farm system, and there is no Ryan Braun heading to FA next year. Holliday is probably the best FA bat that's going to hit the market over the next two years (given that I doubt Mauer, Berkman sniff FA). As such I can definitely see the FO pursuing Holliday this winter, as they should.

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

jdb

#403

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10/27/09 3:01 PM

I agree Buffs and it just so happens we don't have a LF right now. We talk about how it was lucky the Yanks were able to use FA to fill their holes last season here is our chance. We get a middle of the order hitter and get to keep our prospects.

Guidas

#404

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10/27/09 3:23 PM

I should've been clearer when I said, "especially in their (i.e. AL, non Coors Field) parks

Holliday OPS in AL Stadiums with same linked 3 Year sample

Yankee Stadium .690
US Cellular 1.088
Trop: .938
Safeco: 650
Rogers: .429
Arlington .755
McAfee .877
Jacobs .607
Comerica 1.219
Camden: .453
Angel Stadium: .666
Kauffman: 1.600
Fenway: .970

No doubt there is a better way to judge over-all the cross-over from NL and Coors field to AL pitching in AL parks. All I know is that Bay handled this well enough to become perhaps the #1 free agent position player on this year's market (barring Tampa not picking up Carl Crawford's option). I am not saying this makes Bay worth 5 years, but neither do I think Holliday is worth as much as Bay or 5 years either.

Last Edited By: Guidas 10/27/09 3:25 PM. Edited 1 time.

Nexus

#405

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10/27/09 3:50 PM

buffs44444 wrote:
Because you see the FO looking towards the 2011 when.......Adam Dunn will be available? I'm trying to understand the rationale of those who advocate passing on Holliday because he's going to want too much (they all want "too much") and instead placing a band-aid in the middle of the order.

Don't get me wrong, this would definitely be a worthwhile strategy if a better bat were on the horizon. The problem that I see with that strategy is that there is no Jay Bruce coming through the farm system, and there is no Ryan Braun heading to FA next year. Holliday is probably the best FA bat that's going to hit the market over the next two years (given that I doubt Mauer, Berkman sniff FA). As such I can definitely see the FO pursuing Holliday this winter, as they should.

Holliday may be the best FA hitter to hit the market, but he's not $40+ million better than Bay in the AL. The Sox do not like his swing and his weaknesses were easily exposed in the AL. His 11 dingers in the AL this year came off of pitchers with an average 90.3 mph fastball and 4.98 ERA. The only pitcher he touched up with an ERA less than 3 in the AL was Sean White, a middle reliever.

All that said, he would still a good corner outfielder in the AL, but he's nowhere close to the $100+ million dollar talent Boras claims him to be. His defensive numbers the last few years have certainly helped his value, but they're declining. And maybe I am in the minority, but I don't think 6'4" 235lb. frames age well into their mid-thirties. I think he will be a defensive liability within two years of his next contract.

Last Edited By: Nexus 10/27/09 4:05 PM. Edited 1 time.

mtsquad

#406

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10/27/09 4:18 PM

^They do age extremely well IF they play in the Bronx

Iminate, Dompact

buffs44444

#407

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10/27/09 4:23 PM

Nexus wrote:
Holliday may be the best FA hitter to hit the market, but he's not $40+ million better than Bay in the AL.

All that said, he would still a good corner outfielder in the AL, but he's nowhere close to the $100+ million dollar talent Boras claims him to be.

Do you have a link to the Bay demands? I haven't seen any reported. Based on some of the posts on this subject, I would guess this it's a common misconception that Bay is going to get significantly less than Holliday.

Ironically it was just a few hours ago that Bay's agent came out and profiled his client as the top player on the market. I agree that I think Holliday is going to get more than Bay, but we've seen no reports of numbers to actually back this up. In the absence of those numbers, and given the statements of Holliday and Bay's agents both claiming their player is the greatest of all time, I'd be more willing to guess that the figures are closer to each other than $40M in AAV when all is said and done. And if it's only a few million a year, and totals only $12-15M rather than the $40M from your original post.....that changes the argument quite a bit now, from my perspective.

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

raftsox

#408

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10/27/09 4:27 PM

Ballpark	OPS	At Bats
Yankee Stadium	0.69	10
US Cellular	1.088	25
Trop:	0.938	39
Safeco:	0.65	27
Rogers:	0.429	28
Arlington	0.755	22
McAfee	0.877	196
Jacobs	0.607	18
Comerica	1.219	21
Camden:	0.453	12
Angel Stadium:	0.666	18
Kauffman:	1.6	10
Fenway:	0.97	26

You can't look at Holliday's career OPS in AL parks and expect to get any reliable guage on his offensive abilities.

I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2

MVPedroia15

#409

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10/27/09 4:38 PM

Steve Dillard wrote:

MVPedroia15 wrote:
If thats honestly what the Bay camp thinks, then I think the way to go is stopgap for a year until Reddick is ready.
I know we're a prospect board, but can we stop with planning to replace a middle of the lineup bat with a AA kid who barely makes the BA league's top 20 list? He may well end up a nice MLB outfielder, and perhaps hit 20 homers some day. But so far he's a kid overmatched in AAA and the MLB. Planning him as the solution and therefore foregoing any replacement with known quantities is not the way to go. The only place I think such a thought process might fit is at SS, where you're dealing with a #9 hitter, there's a built in existing stop-gap, and projecting Iglesias to replace the existing option isn't too difficult.

Holliday will be the Sox's 2010-2015 left fielder.

I think Holliday and Boras will identify what's best for the player, and Holliday will stay in the NL. Boras controls his clients and will convince Holliday to stay where he can hit the pitching.

For Bay, I know agents like to hyperbolize their players, so what I'm saying is: if Bay's agent actually believes these statements and was not just selling his product, then the pricetag will be too high for the Sox, leaving the only viable option a stopgap or a trade.

dd7136

#410

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10/27/09 4:50 PM

Because you see the FO looking towards the 2011 when.......Adam Dunn will be available? I'm trying to understand the rationale of those who advocate passing on Holliday because he's going to want too much (they all want "too much") and instead placing a band-aid in the middle of the order.

Don't get me wrong, this would definitely be a worthwhile strategy if a better bat were on the horizon. The problem that I see with that strategy is that there is no Jay Bruce coming through the farm system, and there is no Ryan Braun heading to FA next year. Holliday is probably the best FA bat that's going to hit the market over the next two years (given that I doubt Mauer, Berkman sniff FA). As such I can definitely see the FO pursuing Holliday this winter, as they should.

I see where you're coming from, but I guess our disagreement is that I can see Mauer hitting FA. And I think if the Sox give out their big contract to Holliday, it might prevent a Mauer strike. Additionally, while I think Holliday is a very good player, I'm guessing the contract he gets will exceed his talent and the team that gives it to him will potentially regret it... Same possibly w/ Bay if he's looking at 4 or 5 years at 15mill +... I should also probably clarify my opinion that whether or not Mauer (and/or Hernandez) makes it to FA would have no bearing in retrospect on whether I think the Sox should or shouldn't sign or have signed Holliday. I don't. And again it's not because I think Holliday's not any good, I just don't think he'll be worth the money/years he'll be getting...

I agree Buffs and it just so happens we don't have a LF right now. We talk about how it was lucky the Yanks were able to use FA to fill their holes last season here is our chance. We get a middle of the order hitter and get to keep our prospects

You're definitely right in that the Sox don't have a LF right now. I guess I just don't think that in and of itself means the Sox need to throw potentially 6-8 years at god knows how much money to secure Holliday. And you bring up the Yankees... who did a very good job at spending a very large ammount of money to get to the WS. But they did get two franchise players in Sabathia/Teixeira, one of which the Sox also wanted... And personnaly I don't believe that Holliday is a franchise player, but think he will get franchise player money... Specifically talking about NY, I remember reading an article where Cashman said that they specificially didn't spend FA cash in the 08 offseason in preparation for the 09 offseason. Even more specifically he said, that's why they didn't really want to trade for Santana, because they felt that Sabathia would be the real prize the following year. Of course nothing is ever a certainty, but they took a chance that Sabathia would be aviable and he was... All because he was the guy to spend the money on (Teixeira too)...

And guess what happened, they missed the playoffs in 08... and then guess what happened when they spent a ton of money in 09 but on the correct people (not including Burnett), they go to the WS. That's kind of what I'm advocating here... Any team, including the Sox, can't make the playoffs every year. And when you force it is when you get in trouble as an organization. All I'm really advocating is to "not force it" this year. Give the prospects another year, save up your FA dollars to spend it on the true impact/franchise guys or at least to take a shot at them (i.e. Hernandez / Mauer) and see what happens.

NY had a lot of expiring contracts at the end of 08, they took that money (along w/ the money they didn't spend in FA that year) and put it toward the correct guys, the game changing guys and are now on the cusp of another WS. The Sox could be in that same exact position in 2011, only w/ a better farm system than the Yankees... All they have to do is to resist the temptation to spend on the wrong guy, and I'm betting they resist.

All that said, what in the hell do I know... just my opinion on the subject...

Last Edited By: dd7136 10/27/09 4:56 PM. Edited 2 times.

Lippa91

#411

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10/27/09 5:06 PM

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MVPedroia15 wrote:

Steve Dillard wrote:

MVPedroia15 wrote:

If thats honestly what the Bay camp thinks, then I think the way to go is stopgap for a year until Reddick is ready.

I know we're a prospect board, but can we stop with planning to replace a middle of the lineup bat with a AA kid who barely makes the BA
league's top 20 list? He may well end up a nice MLB outfielder, and perhaps hit 20 homers some day. But so far he's a kid overmatched in AAA and the
MLB. Planning him as the solution and therefore foregoing any replacement with known quantities is not the way to go. The only place I think such a thought
process might fit is at SS, where you're dealing with a #9 hitter, there's a built in existing stop-gap, and projecting Iglesias to replace the
existing option isn't too difficult.

Holliday will be the Sox's 2010-2015 left fielder.

I think Holliday and Boras will identify what's best for the player, and Holliday will stay in the NL. Boras controls his clients and will convince Holliday to stay where he can hit the pitching.

For Bay, I know agents like to hyperbolize their players, so what I'm saying is: if Bay's agent actually believes these statements and was not just selling his product, then the pricetag will be too high for the Sox, leaving the only viable option a stopgap or a trade.

Since when has Boras taken anything into account other than the largest contract? When a player hires Boras, it means he's going for the biggest payday. There really are no other factors that will come into play. If the Red Sox offer the most money, he'll be setting up camp in Fenway for the next 5 years or so.

"There's a reason why you wear this Red Sox uniform. Because you're a bad mother#@%&$." -- David Ortiz

JimRiceRocks

#412

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10/27/09 5:46 PM

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dd7136 wrote:
but I guess our disagreement is that I can see Mauer hitting FA.

We have some people here who need to ease up on the hallucinogens.

I mean, you may really really want Mauer to hit FA and the Sox get a shot at him. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. I actually hope he stays in MN. It's better for baseball in general if each team has some talent and draws some fans. MLB really need a salary cap! But I digress . . .

"You can never have too much bitching" - left coast bosox fan
"No wonder a lot of opponent's announcers have bullpenis envy - left coast bosox fan

jdb

#413

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10/27/09 5:48 PM

I can see your point DD7136 about spending on the right guy but I dont think Mauer is going to hit the market. They have a new tax payer funded stadium that the people of Minn were told they needed to compete, I just dont see them letting the local kid get away within a year of its opening. Also I think Holliday hit the market at the wrong time. You could get quality on the corner OF market last year and I dont think Holliday is going to get the years he wants. I see him around 5 and maybe 6. A 5 year deal takes him to 34 years old. He struggled to start his Oakland stay but it could be considered a small slump. He also didnt have any help around him and was working with a new stance and tried to get rid of a leg kick. He went back to his old way and the numbers came back.

Nexus

#414

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10/27/09 6:22 PM

buffs44444 wrote:

Do you have a link to the Bay demands? I haven't seen any reported. Based on some of the posts on this subject, I would guess this it's a common misconception that Bay is going to get significantly less than Holliday.

Ironically it was just a few hours ago that Bay's agent came out and profiled his client as the top player on the market. I agree that I think Holliday is going to get more than Bay, but we've seen no reports of numbers to actually back this up. In the absence of those numbers, and given the statements of Holliday and Bay's agents both claiming their player is the greatest of all time, I'd be more willing to guess that the figures are closer to each other than $40M in AAV when all is said and done. And if it's only a few million a year, and totals only $12-15M rather than the $40M from your original post.....that changes the argument quite a bit now, from my perspective.

My estimates are purely speculative. No link. I'm sure the Sox looked at Dunn and Burrell's contracts and used that as a starting point. I'm sure Urbon is thinking Manny's 2001 deal. I really do think Bay settles for 4yr/$60mm... and I think that's overpaying. Holliday, meanwhile, is going to get his 9 figure deal thanks to his agent spinning him as the greatest OF who ever lived... all because of batting practice for two months against the likes of Jeff Suppan and Russ Ortiz.

Does anyone remember when execs were wondering if Beane would even risk offering arbitration to this guy?

Guidas

#415

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10/27/09 6:42 PM

I think Nexus offers a sound estimation of what Bay will get on the open market, and if it is 4 years at $15 mil I would be disappointed if he went somewhere other than Boston - unless Theo pulls off some crazy deal for Hanley/Miguel Cabrera/NameAPipeDream. The caveat is of course the Yankees. If they want him then they will just go one more year than the Sox and snag him.

Yours wishing Tampa somehow lets Carl Crawford walk without picking up the option and taking the draft picks (Another Pipe Dream). He's a player I would give 5 years to at that money in a heartbeat. Imagine Crawford-Ellsbury-Drew/Reddick/Kalish in the outfield and at the plate for the next few years. (hyperventilating)

buffs44444

#416

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10/27/09 7:04 PM

Nexus wrote:
My estimates are purely speculative. No link. I'm sure the Sox looked at Dunn and Burrell's contracts and used that as a starting point. I'm sure Urbon is thinking Manny's 2001 deal. I really do think Bay settles for 4yr/$60mm... and I think that's overpaying. Holliday, meanwhile, is going to get his 9 figure deal thanks to his agent spinning him as the greatest OF who ever lived... all because of batting practice for two months against the likes of Jeff Suppan and Russ Ortiz.

Does anyone remember when execs were wondering if Beane would even risk offering arbitration to this guy?

Fair enough, as it's all speculation at this point. I'd be stunned if Bay signed for 4/60M, myself. I'd say if he takes a discount to stay here (which I think is very unlikely), they'd have to pay more for fewer years (4/$72M), but I could see someone giving him 5/$86M.

None of these players are "worth" this amount of money, but that's what the market ends up doing to these deals. Last year we talked about Tex maxing out at 8/$160 and he ended up with $20M more than that. Probably the most realistic thing people can do is project numbers that are slightly unfavorable, because realistically that's where the market is going to take these contracts. I think we'd all like to sign Bobby Abreu for $5M (as the Angels did last year), but those types of contracts are typically unexpected and very unlikely (especially with this sparse of a market).

My guess would put Holliday at $20M/yr AAV, and Bay right behind at $17-18M/yr AAV, both on 5-6 year deals most likely. And yes, I'd say it's very likely that one of them is a Red Sox next year at those prices.

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

MVPedroia15

#417

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10/27/09 7:27 PM

when it comes down to it, the best evidence we'll get on Holliday is whether or not Theo makes a run at him. If he does, than we can assume Theo thinks he can translate his performance from the NL to the AL successfully and long term. If we don't hear anything (besides the usual speculation) linking the Sox and Holliday, than we can assume he's probably not a good AL player

MVPedroia15

#418

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10/27/09 7:30 PM

jdb wrote:
He struggled to start his Oakland stay but it could be considered a small slump. He also didnt have any help around him and was working with a new stance and tried to get rid of a leg kick. He went back to his old way and the numbers came back.

do you have a link for that?

DCRi

#419

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10/27/09 7:51 PM

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One of the Globe writers, I forget which one, suggested the Sox might go after Carlos Beltran and move Ellsbury to LF. This was with the assumption that Bay was not re-signed and Holiday was not signed. The more I have thought about this the better I like the idea. In fact, I think I like the idea better than signing either Bay or Holiday. Beltran then could mentor his relative, Fuentes, into being his successor in a few years. Meanwhile the Sox would get better defense in both CF and LF and Beltran might well be a better offensive force than Bay or Holiday.

Of course getting him from the Mets may be problematical.

What do others think?

TheGoldenGreek33

#420

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10/27/09 8:01 PM

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1. Trade Dice-K and Rizzo for Pujols.
2. Trade Delcarmen, Jon Hee, and Bowden for Gonzalez.
3. Move Youkilis to LF.
4. Trade Martinez and one of Jered Stanley/Adam Mills for Mauer.
5. Trade Ellsbury and a couple filler prospects for Reyes.

I think that's pretty reasonable.

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