Beckett for Kemp the makings of a deal, as long as we are pulling deals out of our derriere? Always seems like Kemp is out there in the rumors, so under the
"smoke = fire" corollary, maybe there is something to build? If Torre is going for it with 2010 as his last year, a Beckett/Kershaw top of the
rotation should allow them to dominate in the NL. Then throw the money at Lackey you would have thrown at Bay/Holliday?
0 Points
The Red Sox 2009-2010 Offseason Discussion Thread
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 shoosh77 |
#301 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 77 10/20/09 9:59 PM |
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TheGoldenGreek33 |
#302 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3162 10/20/09 10:34 PM Veteran Member |
Another unfounded rumor.
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jro545454 |
Red Sox Home/Away splits are AWFUL | #303 | ||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1629 10/20/09 10:36 PM Veteran Member |
Hello Gentlemen (and ladies),
As I was talking Sox with some friends this weekend, I noticed a lot of our complaining was about how the Red Sox could just not seem to hit on the the road. Most of these complaints stemmed from Theo seemingly calling out a couple players after the ALDS. Now, I realize that the green monster had some obvious effects on power but as I looked up some numbers I realized exactly how bad they were. I referenced the very simple Home/Away Red Sox team batting stats via ESPN found here: http://sports.espn.go.com...;order=true&type=reg Only four Red Sox regulars have OPS's above .750 on the road. They are Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay and JD Drew. They all put up satisfactory numbers and basically carried everyone else. I will also give Ellsbury a reprieve because his OPS was only 60 points lower on the road and OBP was 15 points lower. Other then those 5 there is one player who has hit a wall and is running on fumes; Ortiz hit .130 OPS points lower on the road than at home and that is just counting after the all-star break (I'n hoping the first two months were a fluke). He used to be a much more balanced player but now he simply is getting by taking advantage of the average pitchers of the world. Any reputable pitcher seems to have there way with Ortiz. Btw, it pains me to say that because there was no other hitter I would rather see hit in a clutch situation a couple years ago. The other three on this list fall into the category, "The only real power they have is because there right-handed pull hitters and there is a big wall where there should be outfield grass." Those players are Lowell, Pedroia and Gonzalez. I don't expect a whole lot of offense from Gonzo as long as he sures up the IF defense. However, I expect Pedroia to pick it up, I think his 'down' numbers this season were directly related to having Papi struggling so bad behind him for most of the season. Lowell is another story altogether. I blame him and Papi for the Red Sox being so bad on the road (Maybe I'm exagerating but they were WELL below average.) He was powerless on the road, so much so that Ellsbury had a higher slugging percentage than him. Actually now that I look at the stats, Ellsbury had a higher slug % on the road than Ortiz, Lowell and Pedroia which is simply remarkable and unacceptable. Acquiring a CIF is an absolute must for the Red Sox but I have no idea how they will address the problem. If they can get by next year with the current regime, ie resign Bay and hope Ortiz doesn't fall flat, then maybe they can get by til the following year of free agency where the crop of FA's is significantly better (Mauer, Pena, pitchers etc.) Then again, Theo said this is the last year with the current regime. Does this mean he is going to make unwise decisions to go for it all in 2010? I'm not sure. It could be a very boring or a very exciting offseason. Thoughts?
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Oh man, I am so glad we didn't trade Lester and Papelbon for Jeremy Reed!!! To think the USS Mariner called our beloved Paps no better than Clint Nageotte!!! |
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mredsox89 |
#304 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 764 10/20/09 11:03 PM |
jro545454 wrote: No, i don't think Theo will make unwise decisions. He seems to be a GM who is always looking 3, 5, 10 years into the future when creating his roster. He has said that his expectations are to make the playoffs 7/10 years because he realizes any team turns itself over every 5 or so years. I don't see him completely unloading the farm for a superstar who he then has to offer a huge deal to. |
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WC Sox Fan |
#305 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 51 10/20/09 11:26 PM |
jro545454 wrote:Obviously the Red Sox as a team, and the majority of their players, hit better at home than on the road. This is partially due to Fenway being a hitter (but not homer) friendly ballpark due to its lack of foul territory and the short left field wall among other nuances. Part of this also is likely due to poor luck, as in the past the Red Sox haven't had such huge gaps between their home and road splits. Although, not to be mean, i have to point out that the four Red Sox with an OPS over .750 on the road, also happen to have the top four OPS on the team overall. And by a very large margin (.093 different between 4th and 5th). So while you claim they claim that these four "carried everyone else". It would really make a more legitimate point to claim that they actually "carried everyone else" overall during the season. Not just on the road. Here are the Red Sox who performed better on the road than at home: Victor Martinez: 1.024 vs .744 Julio Lugo: .786 vs .584 Rocco Baldelli: .764 vs .722 You could take these number to mean that a player struggles in a high-pressure and occasionally hostile environment (Lugo); that he has a poor swing for fenway; that the different or sample size is too miniscule to be relevant (Baldelli); or that it's just a fluke (Martinez - hopefully). OVERALL OPS SPLITS: .862 (fenway) vs .753 (away) OPPONENTS OPS SPLITS: .779 (home) vs .736 (fenway) |
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TokenWilliams |
#306 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 488 10/20/09 11:44 PM |
Arthur Spooner wrote: Arthur - I threw up in my mouth reading this... The thought of Mike Cameron in CF is just disgusting. First off, he's going to be 37 next year. Secondly, he's defense isn't premire any longer. Thridly, his bat is brutal now. 3 year average: .244/.333/.450 Lastly, why do you want to trade Jacoby (a young bat) for a young bat? Jacoby is trending upward.. he offers a demention to the team that we haven't seen before... If we have an eye towards the future, we should be looking at the possibility of locking him up long-term not trading him... Soxfan, I do like Votto. I'm a fan, but Buchholz and Jacoby are a lot to give up for him. They are both proven young cost controlled major league players. Lowrie, I don't care so much about as Votto is a proven player and i agree that he's more proven than the others and it's arguable whether Buchholz is proven. To me he's proven he can pitch in this league, more specifically in the AL East and like I said about Jacoby, he's trending upward. If Beckett is not in the long-term plans then Buchholz is even more important. How do they plan to replace Beckett if not from within? Not only that, if beckett is gone and Buchholz is traded then they have 2 big spots to fill... not many more bullets to trade and no free agents to sign... then what do they do? Lester cannot pitch every day... I think the Sox should work out an extension for Beckett... he is probably the most interesting pitcher I've ever watched; but he's damn good and has shown to be pretty reliable from an injury perspective. He's definitely, been affected by injuries and his performance has suffered when he has, but he's also battled through some stuff and thrown a lot of innings. The totals the past 5 years are those of a horse. He's extremely valuable to the team. Lester may very well be the top guy on the team, but that doesn't discount Beckett any. If we've learned anything the past 10 years its that a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation is key. Beckett can be one of the 2 on a championship team, no doubt... we should be rejoicing that Lester has become the other, not ready to move on from Beckett because of Lester. Beckett can be the over-paid Ace while Lester is the underpaid one... Once Lester is ready to be the over-paid one then we should hopefully, have another underpaid one in the wings... I really hope this team doesn't turn into a Front Office that will not resign it's veterans to market deals, if necessary... I know they have let a lot of guys walk in the past, but those guys (Damon, Pedro, Lowe, etc) were at different points in their careers. Lowe is the only one that hasn't had injury problems since he left and he was probably just as much a numbers (roster wise) casualty at the time than he was anything else. The other guys should have been let go.. Becket is young enough that a 4/5 year contract extension at big money should be justified. |
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jro545454 |
#307 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1630 10/20/09 11:48 PM Veteran Member |
I guess my point was simply that those 4 or 5 players(if you include ellsbury) carry almost the entire offensive load on the road because Ortiz, Lowell, AGon
DPed have road OPS's of .703, .713, .736 and .624. Which is well below average and completely unacceptable especially when two of those players are your DH
and 3B. I am more ok with AGon and Pedroia because I believe Pedroia will be fine and the fact that AGon can even hit the ball is a bonus with what his defense
meant to this team after the deadline.
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Oh man, I am so glad we didn't trade Lester and Papelbon for Jeremy Reed!!! To think the USS Mariner called our beloved Paps no better than Clint Nageotte!!! |
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amfox1 |
#308 | |||
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Posts: 6275 10/21/09 8:42 AM
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TokenWilliams wrote: Repeat after me ... the Red Sox are not trading Buchholz. Not for the King, not for Gonzo, not for Votto and not for Doc. Not happening. As to whether the Red Sox should/will re-sign Beckett, the problem is that if you re-sign Beckett to a four year, you can almost guarantee two decent years and two subpar years. This for a guy that profiles as a #2 pitcher in the first place, leaving aside his (deserved) big game reputation. So, given that, would I re-sign him to a 3/48 extension? Absolutely, simply because, with Beckett signed, the Red Sox are looking at a controlled top 4 starting rotation through 2012 (with Casey Kelly joining within two years) and can focus their attention on turning over the lineup and on developing starters for the 2012-2013 time frame. I would dare say that Beckett would be the best #3 starter in baseball and Dice-K the best #4 starter. |
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jdb |
#309 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 212 10/21/09 8:56 AM |
I think Beckett resume is a lot better than Burnetts so im thinking somewhere north of that. If Burnett is getting 82.5 over 5 (16.5) and CC getting 161 over
7 (23 per) you would have to think Beckett will at least get 5 yrs and 100 Million. At least. I just dont see him taking a discount on his last big payday.
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amfox1 |
#310 | |||
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Posts: 6276 10/21/09 9:50 AM
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jdb wrote:I'd be much more flexible with money than with years. If I am the Red Sox, there is no way I'm offering five years. I might (stress: might) be persuaded to go to three and an option tied to innings. Otherwise, I'm taking the draft picks and moving on. The Burnett deal is awful - if people start using Burnett as a benchmark, we should give up on signing free agent eligible players. |
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Arthur Spooner |
#311 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 6 10/21/09 10:35 AM |
TokenWilliams wrote:1. I'm not that worried about his age, since he'd probably only be here for 1 year. If he would require a 2 or 3 year deal, then I'm not interested. 2. Maybe premier was a bit strong, but hes still a very good CF posting UZR of 9.9 and 11.3 the last two years. 3. A .783 OPS is pretty good for a CF, its higher then Ellsbury's .770 last year. Ok, OPS isn't the best metric available, looking at Fangraphs park adjusted batting, Camerons averaged 9.5 the last three years, while Ellsbury 11.8 last year. 4. When I say a young bat, I mean a young power bat, witch this team desperately needs. 5. I don't see Ellsbury getting significantly better, and isn't he a Boras client? I highly doubt he'll be open to an extension. To be clear, I don't want to trade Ellsbury, but if we can use him as a center piece of a trade for a bat like Gonzalez I'm all for it. This team is so desperately in need of a young middle of the order of the bat its not even funny. While it would hurt to trade Ellsbury, CF is the greatest strength of the organization, and I'm personally very high on Kalish. |
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jdb |
#312 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 213 10/21/09 10:45 AM |
Would it be closer to CC? Sabathia signed a 7 year deal and his first year played at age 28/29 and his last year on the contract he will be 35/36. Beckett will
be 31 in the May of his next contract so im thinking he asks for a contract to take him at least to age 35 which would be 5 years. Santana has a contract
(6yrs) to age 34 with a club option averaging right below 23 per. I just have to think Beckett will get a contract to at least 34 yrs old and probably 35.
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WillyCoPapi3 |
#313 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3876 10/21/09 3:12 PM Veteran Member |
I really can't wait until the offseason so that we can actually start discussing rumors that have a fraction of truth to them (a microscopic fraction, but
still a fraction).
Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by
dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher.
-FenwayTheHardWay |
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ILikethisBayGuy |
#314 | |||
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Rookie
Posts: 22 10/21/09 3:48 PM |
Now that Jed looks like a lock for SD's GM position, it might be easier to pull off a A-Gonz trade. Jed would obviously be high on the players coming back
in the trade.
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Nexus |
#315 | |||
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Posts: 237 10/21/09 4:12 PM
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ILikethisBayGuy wrote: Yes, the fans in SD would celebrate in the streets for weeks knowing their new GM just shipped their hometown hero back to his former club because of his own man love for Ryan Westmoreland. |
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Archie Graham |
#316 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 3013 10/21/09 4:22 PM |
Ellsbury
Bard Kelly Westmoreland Reddick Kalish If Theo wants to keep Buchholz, that's what I would demand. |
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Bury the Hammer |
#317 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 580 10/21/09 4:27 PM Veteran Member |
ILikethisBayGuy wrote:At the very least he'll have as firm an idea as anyone what he personally feels is fair value from Boston for AGon. |
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soxprospects |
#318 | |||
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Posts: 7081 10/21/09 4:32 PM
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Archie Graham wrote:Then you'd be wasting your breath. I can't remember the last time any team gave up two major league regulars with all star potential plus its top four minor league prospects for one player. Much less a player with only two years of contractual protection. |
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SexyBanana |
#319 | |||
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Posts: 1310 10/21/09 5:09 PM
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Yes if Theo offered that he should be fired on the spot
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ancientsoxfogey |
#320 | |||
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Veteran Member
Posts: 4372 10/21/09 5:57 PM Veteran Member |
But the [implied] question wasn't "What would Theo offer?" but rather "what would SD demand?" Maybe they would demand something like
that. But the real question is, what would they accept? Because if the comments about Theo's future focus are accurate, he would laugh at any demand
approximating that. Gonzalez is good -- but he isn't nearly that good.
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