w00kie13 wrote:

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raftsox wrote:

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w00kie13 wrote:

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i will never understand why people think matt holliday is an upgrade over jason bay. you want to let a guy walk who just hit 36 hr's and 119 rbi's? and think of what those numbers could have been without the huge slump during the summer. while matt holliday hit only 24 homers...am i missing something here? and people talk of bay is a reliability on defense...i guess i forgot that 0 errors was such a hard thing to deal with (yes i realize he may not make the smartest decisions throwing the ball, but none of them were bad enough to give him an error). and have any of you forgot the ball that matt holliday dropped the other day that a 5 year old girl could have caught? there is no way we can let jason bay walk.

Oh wow.
1) Capitalization is important. (Sorry Mods, I needed to say it.)
2) Errors are possibly the worst way to evaluate defensive efficiency that there is.
3) I'll take the rare time Holliday gets hit in the nuts because he actually makes it to the ball. Bay would have been 4 steps away from that ball.
4) Matt Holliday's 2009 wOBA = .390. Jason Bay's 2009 wOBA = .397. Eerily similar when park effects are taken away.
5) Matt Holliday's 2009 UZR = 3.2. Jason Bay's 2009 UZR = -8.7. Bay is a LIABILITY on defense, Holliday is an asset.

I'll make you happy by using capitalization.
My bad, I didn't realize this was English class.

I'll give it to you, you make some very valid points, but my biggest concern though is you just don't know how Holliday is going to handle playing in a high profile town like Boston.
We know Bay can handle playing in Boston.
Before Bay got here, there was a car accident out in left field almost every day, yet people looked past it because Manny could hit. Bay is certainly not near as bad as Manny was, so my question is what's changed on that front?

Archie Graham wrote:

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OCD SS wrote:

There is no logical reason to think that Holliday is not a superior player to Bay; the only reason that the Sox would not take the pick for Bay and sign Holliday is if they were outbid, and unless Holliday's wife is simply deadset on living in NY there is no reason that the Sox can't go toe to toe with the Yankees in a bidding war.

Since Boras will probably not want to sign until Bay is off the market, the Sox would likely face a scenario where they get Holiday or neither.

Once Bay is off the market, it's going to be awfully tempting for the Yankees to sign Holiday.

Holiday takes over in left field, and Damon moves to DH (replacing Matsui). The following year Montero steps in for Damon.

Jeter
Cano
Teixeira
ARod
Holiday
Swisher
Montero
Posada
Austin Jackson/Melky/Gardner

That's tempting if you're the Yankees.

I have zero confidence the Red Sox will go "toe to toe" with NY for Holiday, if they want him. One team sets a limit, and the other doesn't care. The Sox will never win a bidding war with NY. Never. They will find our limit and surpass it.