templeUsox wrote:

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That's great and all, but cherry-picking 1 or 2 players per year will not work. A shotgun approach is much more effective, which is why the teams with academies in countries are the most successful at mining talent from a country. When you don't put your best foot forward in the 3rd largest MLB producing country in the world, you will hurt for it. Unsurprisingly, the Sox don't have a Venezuelan player acquired in the intervening non-VSL period in their top 40. And there has been absolutely no downturn in Venezuelan talent entering the MLB. So something is wrong.

Well yes and no. I mean, when have the Sox ever had a strong pipeline of Venezuelan talent? Is my namesake the best they've ever done? I guess there's Anibal Sanchez, but that's still slim pickings. If they had been killing it, and then just dropped off the map, then there's clealry something wrong. I think the far bigger factor was that:

1) Despite the huge hit with Hanley, Theo inherited a Latin program that was in disarray. I mean look how far the system has come from an organizational, facilities and standards perspective in the States. It's night and day. It would stand to reason then that the Latin program had even further to improve.

2) This disarray was exacerbated by the multiple reshuffles and firings that took place until just 2 years ago. It's only recently that Shipley has consolidated his control and brought a semblance of stability to the program. It's not like the System is overflowing with an abundance of talent from the DR right now. Who's in the top 40 from there? Navarro, Pimentel, Tejeda, Almanzar, Mendez and Rivera?. The middle two don't appear to be going anywhere and 6/40 isn't that high in relation to the total population within MLB. In sum, if there's still a problem in 2 years, when we'd exect the new kids to be well into the top 40, then I'll agree you might have a point.

In the interim, you can't keep moving the goal posts. When they signed the handful of kids last year, you complained that they weren't able to sign the top kids. I think Perez and Betancourt sort of put the lie to that notion. Now they need time to see if they go anywhere. I don't know how you can make any judgements isolating the lack of a VSL team or academy as the key missing ingredient with the program given the other factors clearly in play.

Steve Dillard wrote:

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1) Despite the huge hit with Hanley, Theo inherited a Latin program that was in disarray. I mean look how far the system has come from an organizational, facilities and standards perspective in the States. It's night and day. It would stand to reason then that the Latin program had even further to improve.

I'm not sure we can come to that conclusion. The Hanley caveat for a potential MVP is a big one. But beyond that, Duquette's program produced the other components of that trade:
Harvey Garcia, Jesus Delgado and Anibal Sanchez

and the Schilling trade:
Jorge De La Rosa

and MLBers Tony Blanco and Franklin Francisco, Wilton Veras

and produced Cesar Seba

Granted these are relatively meager scraps, but the high minors/cup of coffee MLBers is still far greater than the 6 years of Theo's Latin program.

Given that the average Latin FA signs at age 16-17, I'm not sure how Theo's six year tenure can be measured from the standpoint of producing MLB players just yet. Any kids he signed the year he took over would just be entering the show now, and we all know that they stubbed their toe in that market for the first 2-3 years.

Anyway, Garcia and Delgado were JAG relief prospects who haven't amounted to anything.

De La Rosa was acquired under murky circumstances from the Mexican League out from under the noses of the Diamondbacks, so not really your typical Latin FA signing at all.

I presume the inclusion of Saba and Veras was a joke.

Francisco was a loss.

Blanco never amounted to anything.

In Duquette's 9 year tenure, he signed 1 stud (Hanley), 3 guys who will have a career (Sanchez, DLR, and Francisco), 2 guys who had cups of coffee, and a whole lot of nothing. That's not really a great return.

In Theo's six years, he's used Beltre, Sumoza and Diaz in notable trades for MLB talent. I suspect that in the next three, we'll see interesting progress from Doubrant, Pimentel, and Navarro, to say nothing of the possibilities offered by Castillo, Tejeda, Almanzar, Perez, Mendez, Rivera and the crop of kids they signed this year. Even then, we really won't be able to compare Theo's first 9 years until about 12-13 years after he took the job b/c it takes that long for these young kids to progress through the system. Remember than when Duquette was fired, Sanchez and Hanley weren't as highly regarded as they came to be when they were traded.